A Market Efficiency Comparison of Islamic and Non-Islamic Stock Indices

This article examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) and the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for nine conventional and nine Islamic stock indices: Asia-Pacific, Canadian, Developed Country, Emerging, European, Global, Japanese, UK, and United States. It investigates whether Islamic stock indices are more, less, or as efficient as their conventional counterparts. We test four sub-periods of bullish and bearish stock markets, together with the financial meltdown and its recovery, over the period 1997–2012. We use the Escanciano and Lobato’s (2009) automatic portmanteau test (AQ) and Deo’s (2000) test for the MDH. We also apply the automatic variance ratio test (AVR) developed by Choi (1999) and Kim (2009) for the RWH. Over the period from 1997 to 2012, we find that three conventional indices (Europe, Japan, and UK) are efficient, but that none of the Islamic indices are efficient in these markets. During the recent financial crisis, our results indicate slightly more efficiency for the Islamic indices than their conventional counterparts. Our study finds that overall the conventional indices are more efficient than their Islamic counterparts. Nevertheless, during periods of general downturns the Islamic indices have shown the same level of efficiency as their counterparts. Furthermore, it appears that during the last two sub-periods under study, the Islamic indices have moved toward efficiency, displaying the same level of efficiency as their counterparts.     

A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit

Using a nonparametric variance ratio (VR) test, we revisit the empirical validity of the random walk hypothesis in eight emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). After correcting for measurement biases caused by thin and infrequent trading prevalent in nascent and small stock markets, we cannot reject the random walk hypothesis for the MENA markets. We conclude that a nonparametric VR test is appropriate for emerging stock markets, and argue that our findings can reconcile previously contradictory results regarding the efficiency of MENA markets.     

Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets

The hypothesis that stock market price indices follow a random walk is tested for five European emerging markets, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Turkey, using the multiple variance ratio test. In four of the markets, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. For the Istanbul market, which had markedly higher turnover than the other markets in the 1990s, the stock price index follows a random walk. This contrasts with the results of earlier research, carried out for periods of lower turnover, which rejected the random walk hypothesis.     

A Note on Option Pricing for the Constant Elasticity of Variance Model

We study the arbitrage free optionpricing problem for the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. To treatthestochastic aspect of the CEV model, we direct attention to the relationship between the CEV modeland squared Bessel processes. Then we show the existence of a unique equivalentmartingale measure and derive the Cox's arbitrage free option pricing formulathrough the properties of squared Bessel processes. Finally we show that the CEVmodel admits arbitrage opportunities when it is conditioned to be strictlypositive.     

The Distributional Properties of the Debt to Equity Ratio: Some Implications for Empirical Research

The purpose here is to assess empirically the quasi-supply side model of the firm developed in the paper by Ashton et al. (2004 ) by testing the prediction of the model that the evolution of a firm's debt to equity ratio will be compatible with a non-linear (target adjustment) process whose underlying probability density function possesses no convergent moments. Using a thirty-two-year history of the debt to equity ratio for each of ninety 'mature' United Kingdom firms, a non-parametric estimation procedure shows that the debt to equity ratio evolves in terms of a process which is largely consistent with the predictions of this model. In particular, the evolution of the debt to equity ratio is compatible with a 'long (fat) tailed' density function with no convergent moments. This has the important implication, supported by our empirical analysis, that the linear dynamic models which characterize empirical work in this area will be mis-specified and will return inconsistent and temporally unstable estimates of the target adjustment process as a consequence.     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit

The few existing studies on equity price dynamics and market efficiency for Latin American emerging equity markets show conflicting results. This study uses multiple varianceratio and auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving-average tests and new data (U.S. dollar-based national equity indices for the 1987–1997 period) to clarify these results. Documented evidence shows that equity prices in major Latin American emerging equity markets — Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico—follow a random walk, and that they are, generally, weak-form efficient. In sum, therefore, the evidence suggests that international investors in these markets cannot use historical information to design systematically profitable trading schemes because future long-term returns are not dependent on past returns.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

股票价格均值回归理论研究综述

随机漫步理论认为股票的价格是不能预测的,许多实证检验的结果也支持了这一结论。但是,近年来均值回归理论对随机漫步理论提出了挑战。从长期来看,股票价格呈均值回归是必然的;均值回归具有不对称性;政府行为对股票的均值回归具有一定的影响。     

A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited

This article reexamines the duration‐based explanation of the value premium using novel estimates of the firms' equity and cash flow durations based on analyst forecasts. We show that the value premium can be explained by cross‐sectional differences in the shares' equity durations, but not by their cash flow durations. Different from the duration‐based explanation of the value premium that explains the value premium with cross‐sectional differences in the firm's cash flow timing, we find that short‐horizon stocks have lower (expected) returns than long‐horizon stocks. This result is consistent with an upward‐sloping equity yield curve.     

Central Bank Independence,Political Regimes,and the Sacrifice Ratio: A Replication Study of Caporale and Caporale (2008)

A recent article by Caporale and Caporale (2008, this Journal) provides an important finding on the determinants of the sacrifice ratio: central bank independence is not a determining factor for the sacrifice ratio when political regimes and other factors are controlled for. Our replication study shows that their result is driven by errors in the data. With correct data, it can be found that central bank independence is positively and significantly correlated with the sacrifice ratio, even when the nature of the political regime is controlled for.     

Majority and Minority Ownership of Publicly-Traded Firms: A Test of the Value of Control Using Market Multiples

Publicly-traded companies that are controlled by other publicly-traded companies provide a unique setting in which to test whether the market values of majority and minority ownership interests are proportionate to their ownership percentages. Test results indicate that the value of subsidiary net assets and net income are greater to majority shareholders than to minority shareholders. However, comparison of asset and income valuation with a sample of diffusely-held firms indicates that this valuation asymmetry is not due to a wealth transfer from the minority to the majority owners but to a discounting of the portion of the subsidiary owned by the minority shareholders.     

The Impact of Personal Taxes on the Firm's Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Investment Behaviour: A Simplified Approach Using the Dempsey Discounted Dividends Model

The discounted dividends model advanced by Dempsey (1996) is extended to provide a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assessment of investment opportunities with irregular cash flows. Thereafter, the framework is extended to an assessment of the implications of government tax policy for the firm's investment behaviour. The developed framework is consistent with the empirical evidence of Poterba and Summers (1985) which — over the period of UK tax history 1950–1983 encompassing four major tax on equity reforms — observes how the related dividend and investment politics of UK firms appear to be influenced by the level of dividend taxes.