教育投入、经济增长与新型城镇化建设研究

文章基于1978—2012年我国财政教育经费支出、经济增长和城镇化发展的年度数据,采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对三者之间的关系进行了实证分析。结论显示:教育投入、经济增长与新型城镇化建设三者之间存在长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,教育投入与经济增长为单向因果关系,经济增长与新型城镇化互为双向因果关系,教育投入与新型城镇化为双向因果关系。因此,增加教育投入对于经济增长与新型城镇化建设具有正向积极作用。     

Analyzing the Dynamic Relationships between Physical Infrastructure,Financial Development and Economic Growth in India

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between physical infrastructure, financial development and economic growth in the case of India, using the autoregressive distributed lag and the Toda–Yamamoto causality approach for the period 1980 to 2016. A physical infrastructure index and a financial development index are constructed using the principal component analysis. The empirical results suggest that physical infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth both in the long run and short run, whereas financial development, although significant, has a weak impact on economic growth. The causality test supports a bidirectional causal relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth, while it finds unidirectional causation running from economic growth to financial development. As India is aiming for higher growth for a sustained period, our results suggest that there is a need for government intervention in expanding the physical infrastructure and this, in turn, could lead to economic growth as well as financial sector development.     

Testing the nexus between renewable energy consumption and environmental quality in Nigeria: The role of broad‐based financial development

This study investigates the nexus between renewable energy consumption and environmental quality in Nigeria, accounting for the role of financial development, and re‐examines the validity of the environmental Kuznet curve (EKC) hypothesis for Nigeria covering the period 1990 to 2016. To cover financial development more adequately, the current study uses the broad‐based financial development index constructed by the International Monetary Fund. The study employs second generation econometric approaches of Lee and Strazicich, and Bayer and Hanck combined cointegration tests to check for stationarity and cointegration among the variables, and then applies autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality tests to explore the effect and causal relationship respectively. The results divulge that renewable energy consumption improves environmental quality, while financial development hurts the environment. Further, the results validate an inverted U‐shaped association between economic growth and environmental degradation in Nigeria. The VECM Granger causality results indicate a long‐run effect of the independent variables on CO₂ emission, while the short‐run causality reveals a mixture of unidirectional and bidirectional causality among the variables. This study therefore recommends that policy makers consider the important roles of renewable energy and financial development in reforming energy policies to achieve environmental sustainability.     

Electricity Consumption–Economic Growth–CO2 Emissions Nexus in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegration

This study explores the causal relationship among electricity consumption, economic growth and CO₂ emissions for a group of 14 sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries from 1980 to 2009 using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modelling methods. The findings demonstrate that in the long run electricity consumption has a statistically significant positive impact on CO₂ emissions. The results also reveal that the inverted U‐shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis exists in the SSA countries' case. The panel causality tests indicate that there is short‐run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO₂ emissions and electricity consumption respectively. Simultaneously, there is long‐run bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions, economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Depending on the results, relevant policies can be initiated without negatively affecting economic growth.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub‐Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Abstract: This paper seeks to empirically explore the causal link between the level of financial development and economic growth in 13 sub‐Saharan African countries. The empirical investigation is carried out in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error‐correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of the existence of a long‐run relationship between financial development and economic growth in almost all (12 out of 13) of the countries. With respect to the direction of long‐term causality, the results show that financial development plays a causal role on economic growth, again in eight of the countries. At the same time, evidence of bidirectional causal relationships is found in six countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems.     

Stock Markets,Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these three variables for 5 developing countries. In addition, we test the direction of potential causality between financial and economic development. Our results conclude to the existence of a single cointegrating vector between financial development and growth and of causality going from financial development to economic growth. We find little evidence of reverse causation as well as bi-directional causality. We interpret this as evidence supporting the significance of financial development for economic development although banks and stock markets may have different effects depending on the level of economic development.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Does foreign direct investment cause long run economic growth? Evidence from the Latin American and the Caribbean countries

The empirical evidence about the temporal precedence between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in open developing economies is mixed. In this research effort, we explored the FDI-growth nexus for 16 developing countries of Latin American and the Caribbean countries during the last three decades, a period in which many of these countries introduced various economic and financial reforms. As a departure from many previous studies, the current analysis uses the Granger noncausality test procedure recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225–250, 1995), and Dolado and Lutkepohl (Econ Rev 15:369–386, 1996)–TYDL. Our results suggest that the null hypothesis that ‘FDI does not Granger cause economic growth’ is rejected for all countries except Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality from growth to FDI for all countries except Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Jamaica. We found bidirectional causality for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.     

Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility： Evidence from China

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China＇s economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, informing future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors.     

Supply‐leading versus Demand‐following Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Three SSA Countries

Abstract: This study investigates empirically the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in three sub‐Saharan African countries — Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania. The study seeks to answer one critical question: Does financial development in sub‐Saharan African countries exhibit a supply‐leading or demand‐following response? Using three proxies of financial development against real GDP per capita (a proxy for economic growth), the study finds that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the choice of measurement for financial development. In addition, the strength and clarity of the causality evidence is found to vary from country to country and over time. On balance, a demand‐following response is found to be stronger in Kenya and South Africa, whilst in Tanzania a supply‐leading response is found to be dominant. The study therefore recommends that for Kenya and South Africa the real sector of the economy should be developed further in order to sustain the development of the financial sector. However, for Tanzania, there is need for further development of the financial sector in order to make the economy more monetized.     

Développement financier,croissance économique et productivité globale des facteurs en Afrique Sub‐saharienne**

Résumé: L’article analyse empiriquement les liens développement financier (DF)‐croissance économique, et développement financier‐productivité globale des facteurs (PGF) en Afrique Sub‐saharienne. L’étude est basée sur une approche VAR: tests de cointégration de Johansen et modèles à correction d’erreurs. L’échantillon comprend 22 pays et porte sur la période 1960–2002. Les résultats suggèrent que le DF et la croissance, et le DF et la PGF sont cointégrés, dans plusieurs pays. De plus, dans plusieurs cas, la relation entre le DF et la croissance est caractérisée par une causalité bidirectionnelle au sens de Granger, alors que la relation entre le DF et la PGF est caractérisée par une causalité unidirectionnelle allant du DF vers la PGF. Il apparaît, à quelques exceptions près, que le développement financier stimule la croissance dans les pays où cette croissance est soutenue par le progrès technique. L’implication de nos résultats est que toute mesure qui stimule le développement financier, va stimuler la croissance économique à travers l’accélération du progrès technique. Abstract: The paper empirically analyzes the financial development (FD)‐growth nexus, and the financial development‐total factor productivity (TFP) link in sub‐Saharan Africa. The study is based on a VAR approach: Johansen cointegration tests and error correction models. The sample includes 22 countries over the period from 1960 to 2002. Results suggest that FD and economic growth and, FD and TFP are cointegrated for many countries. Moreover, in many cases, the relationship between FD and growth is characterized by bidirectional causality in the Granger sense, whereas the relation between FD and TFP is characterized by a unidirectional causality running from FD to TFP. With few exceptions, it appears that financial development spurs economic growth in countries where that growth is supported by technological progress. The implication of the findings is that any reform that causes betterment in the financial sector will foster economic growth through a sharp increase in technological progress.     

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis

The paper examines whether a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth exists employing panel integration and cointegration techniques for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 15 OECD and 50 non-OECD countries over the period 1975–2000. Three different measures of financial deepening are used to capture the variety of different channels through which financial development can affect growth. Our findings support the existence of a single long-run equilibrium relation between financial deepening, economic growth and a set of control variables. Further, the evidence points to a bi-directional causality between financial deepening and growth. JEL no. O11, O16, C33     

中国转轨时期金融深化与经济增长关系实证分析

文章采用协整检验与基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验,分析了改革开放以来我国金融深化与经济增长之间的关系.研究表明,金融深化与经济增长既存在长期的稳定关系,也存在双向因果关系.因此,在促进我国经济增长的战略中,要充分重视金融深化因素的作用.同时通过聚类分析表明,我国金融深化进程以1991年为界限划分为前后两个阶段,在前一个阶段中经济增长主导金融深化,而在后一个阶段中金融深化主导经济增长.     

The Money-prices Nexus for Malaysia: New Empirical Evidence from the Time-varying Cointegration and Causality Tests

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to empirically re-investigate the money-prices nexus for Malaysia through the Johansen multivariate cointegration and the modified Wald (MWALD) causality techniques. This study covered the monthly dataset from 1971:M1 to 2008:M11. The Johansen cointegration test suggests that the variables under investigation are co-move in the long run. Furthermore, the MWALD causality test shows a bidirectional causal relationship between money supply (M2) and aggregate prices, meaning that both the monetarist's and also the structuralists' views are vindicated in the Malaysian economy. However, the time-varying cointegration and causality tests indicate that the cointegrating and also the causal relationships are not stable over the analysis period. These results suggest that inflation in Malaysia is not purely a monetary phenomenon. Therefore, implementing a tighter monetary policy may not be an effective macro-economic instrument in managing the inflationary behaviour in the Malaysian economy.     

The Finance–Growth Link in Latin America

This paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Latin America with a Granger causality test and impulse response functions in a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model. With annual observations from a sample of 18 countries from 1962 to 2005, it is shown that while economic growth causes financial development, financial development does not cause economic growth. This finding is robust to different model specifications and different financial indicators. Interestingly, when the sample is divided according to different income levels and institutional quality, there is two‐way causality between financial development and economic growth only for the middle income group and for countries with stronger rule of law and creditor rights. The impulse response functions show that a shock to financial development has a positive impact on economic growth only for these subsamples, but the net effect of financial development on growth is relatively small.     

Interest Rate Liberalization and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Linkage

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic impact of interest rate reforms on economic growth in Zambia—using two models in a stepwise fashion. In the first model, the efficacy of interest rate liberalization is examined by regressing the interest rate on the level of financial deepening. In the second model, the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth is examined by incorporating savings as an intermittent variable in the bivariate setting, thereby creating a simple trivariate model. Using the cointegration‐based error correction model, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate liberalization on financial deepening. In addition, the study finds that financial deepening, which results from interest rate liberalization, Granger causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that: (1) lagged financial depth leads to further financial deepening; (2) savings and economic growth Granger cause each other; and (3) financial development Granger causes savings in the long run.     

山东省金融结构与经济增长关系实证研究

金融发展与经济增长的关系一直受到学者的广泛关注,但有关金融结构与经济增长效应的研究却相对滞后.相比较金融规模而言,金融结构更能反映金融业的功能和效率且金融结构的优化对经济增长更具有推动作用.文章基于协整理论对山东省经济增长与金融结构的关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:山东省金融结构与经济增长存在长期协整关系,且贷款结构与经济增长存在双向因果关系.但山东省经济增长与融资结构演进之间并不存在因果关系,银行集中度变化并未构成经济增长的原因.     

Occupational Mobility Pattern in Chonju,Korea

This paper investigates the existence of the inter‐dependence between the Indian stock market and Asia's emerging markets since 1990. This study analyzes whether the MSCI Asian Index has significantly influenced the Bombay Stock Exchange Index before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis. To address this issue, the author first uses a rolling correlation, and conduct uni‐directional and bi‐directional causality tests using the Granger causality test. He then examines the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of forecast errors based on a VAR (vector auto‐regression) model. These tests provide evidence that the influence of the Asian market on the Indian market has increased during and after the Asian financial crisis. These results can be interpreted as evidence that the Indian market has been moving toward integration with other Asian markets.     

基于经济区视角下的区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以京津冀经济区为例

本文从跨行政区的经济区的视角来研究区域金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,采用协整检验和因果关系检验对以京津冀经济区进行实证研究。检验结果显示:在京津冀经济区金融规模与金融效率对经济增长存在正相关性,但是,两者对经济增长的促进作用并不显著。金融规模与经济增长之间不具有因果关系,而经济增长与金融效率之间存在显著的单向因果关系。说明京津冀经济区的经济增长与金融深化发展遵循的是需求引致型发展模式。     

Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis

The cointegration and causal relationship between export growth and economic growth is investigated for the Nordic economies. On the basis of Johansen's technique and the augmented Granger causality tests, the evidence shows that these macroeconomic aggregates are causally related in the long run for each economy. Granger causality is unidirectional, running from economic growth to export growth in Denmark, and bidirectional in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The established bidirectional causality suggests that the expansion of exports is an integral part of the economic growth process.