What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997?*: Weak Fundamentals or Self‐fulfilling Expectations*

The present paper investigates which factor is primarily responsible for the sharp depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar in 1997, using a bivariate vector autoregressive model of real and nominal exchange rates. In the present study, we directly identify the relative importance of fundamental and non‐fundamental factors from the raw data series on exchange rates. This approach is different from most previous studies on the Korean currency crisis, which use proxy variables to represent the two factors. The empirical results show that the collapse of the Korean currency in 1997 appears to be mostly a result of the weakened macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy with, to a limited extent, some non‐fundamental factors.     

ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS ALTRUISTICALLY MOTIVATED? THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA BEFORE AND DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using household panel data from Korea for 1995–98, this paper shows that private transfers of Korean households were altruistically motivated. Although the altruistic motive of households seemed to be reinforced during the financial crisis, the amount of private transfers was still not sufficient to support households living in urban areas. Also, there had been a strong crowding‐out relation between private and public transfers. This suggests that the Korean government should have designed its public transfer scheme carefully in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

Human resource management, corporate governance structure and corporate performance in Korea: a comparative analysis of Japan, US and Korea

This paper investigates the influences of human resource management (HRM) and corporate governance structure on the corporate performance in Korean firms. Prior to the Asian economic crisis, large Korean firms mostly followed the Japanese style HRM paradigm where the practice of lifetime employment is guaranteed. However, in the aftermath of the crisis, they have pursued structural downsizing and changed their paradigm more towards the US HRM paradigm where inter-firm mobility becomes prominent in the flexible labor market. The empirical evidence introduced in this paper affirms the argument that the first step towards a HRM paradigm shift in Korea should be the establishment of an efficient corporate governance structure. This implies that a simple switch from the Japanese HRM paradigm to the US model may not improve corporate performance unless the change is accompanied by a solution to the problems posed by the minority controlling structure of Korean companies. The implications of this study for guiding policy in developing countries having labor market rigidities and underdeveloped corporate governance is clear. Corporate governance systems may provide an appropriate starting point for the development of any policies aimed at building an efficient human resource management system and a flexible labor market.     

RMA and Strategic intelligence: The case of China and Japan

Two cases of China and Japan are compared in the two dimensions of strategic doctrine and the RMA program. China is disadvantaged in its general military capability; it cannot help but gain the initiative by striking first and doing the operation under a high degree of secrecy, mobility, accuracy in its concentration of firepower, and surprise. This is called the doctrine of “strategic attack” and the Chinese defense planning is called “strategic modernization.” On the other hand, the Japanese approach to RMA is called “Info‐RMA”. The Japanese basic defense strategy is a passive one and it is critical to protect the information infrastructure as Japanese territories might turn out to be the battlefield. Japan should be ready for the possibility that some pre‐RMA forces would employ asymmetrical means such as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism, or guerilla warfare. Self‐Defense Forces (SDF) also should be ready to accomplish diverse missions, such as rear‐area support for U.S. troops, as well as peacekeeping operations and disaster relief. It is ironic that the Chinese doctrine could not help but be aggressive to compensate for the weakness of strategic intelligence capability in comparison to the U.S. On the other hand, Japan could develop power‐projection capability under the name of strategic intelligence as a part of the Exclusively Defense‐Oriented Policy.     

Why is the gender earnings gap greater in Korea than in the United States?

It has long been recognized that the gender earnings gap varies across countries. This paper examines the relatively higher gender earnings gap found in the Korean labor market compared to the US labor market. Using the data set representative of the population for both countries, I found that the significant part of the differences in the gender earnings gap simply arise from the differences in the observed characteristics of women among two countries. In particular, relatively lower labor market experience, current job tenure, and educational attainment by Korean female workers play dominant roles in explaining the observed higher earnings gap. In addition, wage structure and labor market discrimination seem to be against Korean female workers compared to US female workers. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 455–469.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

美韩FTA对中国出口的贸易替代效应研究

美国和韩国于2007年6月正式签署了自由贸易协定。两国都是中国重要的出口市场,中美和中韩出口结构存在一定的竞争性。美韩FTA将会使中国出口产品面临相对较高的关税,差异性的关税可能使美国市场上中国出口产品被韩国替代,同时,韩国市场上中国出口产品也可能被美国替代。本文考察了三国HS2位编码产品的国际竞争力和平均实施关税,以定量估计美韩FTA对中国造成的贸易替代效应。结果表明,在美国市场上,中国的纺织品和服装出口将受到明显影响;在韩国市场上,中国农产品和工业品出口都会受到不同程度影响,且受影响的产品种类较多。     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

Australian squatters,convicts, and capitalists: dividing up a fast‐growing frontier pie, 1821–71

Compared with its competitors, Australian GDP per worker grew exceptionally quickly from the 1820s to the 1870s, at a rate about twice that of the US and three times that of Britain. Did this rapid growth produce rising inequality, following a Kuznets curve? Using a novel dataset, this article offers new evidence that provides unambiguous support for the view that, in sharp contrast with the US experience and with globalization‐inequality views concerning late nineteenth‐century frontiers, Australia underwent a revolutionary levelling in incomes up to the 1870s. This assessment is based on trends in many proxies for inequality, as well as annual estimates of functional income shares in the form of land rents, convict payments, free unskilled labour incomes, free skilled labour and white collar incomes, British imperial transfers, and a capitalist residual.     

Terrorism and its Determinants in the Sub‐Saharan Africa Region: Some New Insights

Terrorism is undesirable as it adversely affects the economic development of countries. This study explores the determinants of terrorism in 29 countries of sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). The data is extracted from reliable sources spanning over 2005 to 2016. Econometric techniques relevant for panel data that control for unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects) and endogeneity (generalized method of moment) are employed to estimate the specified models. The results indicated that low growth in per capita incomes along with political instability are the main driving forces responsible for terrorism. Similarly, military expenditures are influencing terrorism positively whereas corruption has impacted terrorism negatively in the SSA region. Further, the growth of both physical as well as human capital reduces terrorism. The paper suggests that the region should take appropriate steps for increasing income of the population, education and capital stock, along with ensuring political stability to eradicate terrorism from the region.     

State‐Owned Enterprises,Competition, and Disclosure

We develop a mixed‐duopoly model in which a private firm competes against a state‐owned enterprise (SOE) who cares about social welfare and is privately informed about market demand. When the SOE's social concerns are sufficiently important and when the market competitiveness is sufficiently low, the SOE commits to fully disclose its private information. Otherwise, the SOE commits to withhold its private information. When the disclosure equilibrium prevails, the private firm can be more profitable competing against an SOE than against another private firm. In this mixed‐duopoly setting, the equilibrium social welfare is maximized when the SOE puts a positive weight on both social welfare and its own profit. Our analysis has further implications for both mandatory disclosure and market entry.     

Real exchange rate appreciation,resource boom,and policy reform in Myanmar

Over the six‐year period 2006‐11, the real exchange rate of the Myanmar kyat appreciated 200 per cent, resulting in the value of the US dollar in Myanmar falling to one‐third of its pre‐2006 level. While the resource boom is suspected to be the source of the real exchange rate appreciation, administrative controls on foreign exchange and imports had much more impact. Foreign exchange controls limited the convertibility of the kyat to foreign currencies and spurred negotiated transactions of foreign exchange outside the banking sector, hampering the foreign exchange market interventions of the government and Central Bank. Import controls repressed imports, aggravating excess supplies of foreign exchange. Relaxation of administrative controls is necessary for moderating currency appreciation.     

Future of Economic Growth for South Korea*

More than 80 percent of US growth between 1950 and 1993 can be attributed to transition dynamics (increases in R&D intensity and educational attainment), with less than 20 percent of growth deriving from population growth. Similarly, growth accounting shows that 80 percent of economic growth in Korea can be attributed to transition dynamics. However, the specific factors that have moved Korea far from its steady state are significantly different from the factors that have done so for the USA. In addition to the growth rates of the two countries, we also analyzed the (steady‐state) level of output per worker to determine where the Korean economy is headed relative to the USA. In 1960, Korea was characterized as poor (0.111) relative to its own steady state (0.765), and incomes were at 11.1 percent of those in the USA. Since then, however, Korea has been growing more rapidly than the USA. In our analysis, we also consider the extreme case where total factor productivity levels converge completely. Interestingly, in this case, the USA and Korea exhibit unconditional convergence similar to what is generally observed in the OECD. As the economy approaches the steady‐state income level, however, the growth rate of output per capita will decline.     

An efficient market? Going public in London, 1891–1911

There have been claims that British capital was not well deployed in Victorian Britain. There was, allegedly, a lack of support for new and dynamic companies in comparison to the situation in Germany and the US. We find no evidence to support these claims. The London Stock Exchange welcomed young, old, domestic, and foreign firms. It provided funds to firms in old, existing industries as well as patenting firms in ‘new‐tech’ industries at similar costs of capital. If investors did show a preference for older and foreign firms, it was because those firms offered investors better long‐run performance. In addition, we show some evidence that investors who worked in the same industry and lived close to the firm going public were allotted more shares in high‐quality initial public offerings.     

欧元区债务危机背后的国际政治博弈

欧元从诞生起就是国际战略平衡的产物,欧元区债务危机的爆发也似乎是一种国际战略博弈的产物。随着欧洲债务危机的深化,人们似乎忘记了美国才是这场国际金融与债务危机的起源地。然而,美国的危机似乎并未结束。为了解除危机,美欧激烈竞争,吸引新鲜资本。欧洲要走出货币危机,似乎需要更进一步的财政一体化。方向虽然定出,但要具体落实还需时日。中国应支持欧洲统一财政,渡过危机。让欧盟在世界舞台上扮演重要一极的角色对中国来说非常重要。     

Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters

This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a country's level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses detailed data on terrorism, natural disasters, and other relevant controls for 176 countries from 1970–2007 to illuminate several key disparities in a postdisaster target choice of terrorists. The results indicate that natural disasters incite both transnational and domestic terrorism; however, evidence is found for dissimilar motivations between the two. While both types of terrorism increase after disasters, transnational attacks against the government increase immediately following the disaster, suggesting an impetus to exploit weakened “hard” targets during the chaos. Conversely, domestic terrorism against the government takes longer to manifest, suggesting a period of time for which the public recovers and assesses the government's response.     

浅析杜鲁门政府时期美国对远东地区的战略转变

冷战迫使美国重新分析日本在美国全球战略中的地位.美国对日本政策的调整带动了美国对韩国政策的调整,即收缩在韩国的军事力量,回避直接介入朝鲜半岛,主要通过政治、经济援助来稳定韩国的局势.美日韩三国同盟明显体现了“分工理论”.     

The stability of German export demand equations – have German exports suffered from the strength of the euro?

Since its introduction in 1999, the euro has shown pronounced swings against the US dollar and the British pound. In this study, we investigate whether this evolution has affected bilateral German exports to two of its major export destinations: the US and the UK. Applying the autoregressive distributed lags bounds testing approach, we find different elasticities of trade between the two export destinations. Our results show that the export demand equation for the US seems to be more stable than that for the UK. Furthermore, it seems that the short-run dynamics in particular have changed.     

Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions against China*

Using data on US imports, classified at the 10‐digit Harmonized System commodity level, we study the effects of all antidumping investigations initiated by the USA against China between 1998 and 2006. We find that antidumping actions cause a reduction in the volume and value of imports from China as well as an increase in the price of those goods in the US market. Critically, however, we find that these effects are short‐lived and dissipate approximately 2 years after the antidumping decision. Furthermore, antidumping actions against China prompt a substitution effect as they increase US imports from other countries. In general, our results cast doubt on the effectiveness of antidumping actions against China as mechanisms for protecting US producers.     

The impact of terrorism on public debt in African countries

Given the increase in the number of terrorist attacks in African countries, a better understanding of the relationship between terrorism, the informal economy and public debt is essential for policymakers. The model is empirically tested for 47 countries during the period 1996–2015. We use ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (ER) and system generalized method of moments (GMM). Three terrorism indicators are used: the uncertain, the domestic, and the transnational. The results confirm that the rise in terrorism and the informal economy lead to an increase in public debt. The results also show that the informal economy magnifies the effect of terrorism on public debt. In addition, the results suggest that a larger informal economy reduces income taxes and therefore increases public debt and the increase in public spending reinforces the effects of terrorism on public debt. The reduction of terrorism should therefore be governments’ primary political objective. Given the detected complementarity between terrorism and the informal economy, the reduction of terrorism would also reduce the size of the informal economy and the public debt. The reduction of terrorism will also minimize the harmful effects of terrorism on public debt through public spending.