Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea

This paper investigates the effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea via structural VARs. The results show that both foreign and domestic policy uncertainty shocks exert negative and significant impacts on South Korea. Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks are found to be more dominant than domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks in influencing the Korean output. The results also indicate that economic policy uncertainty that originates from foreign countries is a significant source of disturbance to the Korean economy, but domestic policy uncertainty plays a rather limited role in explaining Korean business fluctuations.     

Localization of foreign multinational companies in Korea

In response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis that devastated the Korean economy, the government performed promotional efforts, comprehensive structural reform, and implemented policies to create a favorable environment for foreign direct investment (FDI). While the Korean government announced deregulation plans to support foreign companies, the public also became more aware of the need for foreign capital to overcome the crisis and revive the economy. The change of atmosphere and the perception on the need to induce the inflow of foreign capital provided the basis for this study. In addition, the crucial role of foreign multinational companies and their efforts to achieve market recognition in a more comprehensive way have provoked this study on the localization of foreign multinational companies in Korea. Investment purposes, entry methods, and the degree of competition by multinational companies in Korea were the variables that lead these companies to respond to localization.     

中、韩国际旅游政策比较分析与启示

自改革开放以来,中国旅游业取得了惊人成绩,但距离真正旅游强国,仍有很长的路要走。中、韩两国文化相似,地理相邻,自1992年建交以来,两国旅游交流十分密切。通过中、韩两国国际旅游政策比较分析与思考,旨在为促进中国旅游业快速发展提供建议和对策。     

Northern policy and Japan: North Korea‐Japan normalization negotiations and Japanese policy towards North Korea

This paper seeks to examine the reality of the North Korea‐Japan negotiations, which have continued intermittently for more than 13 years since Kanemaru's visit to North Korea. It also analyzes Japanese foreign policy toward the North during the normalization negotiations at both international and domestic levels, and studies the effect that the normalization of relations of the two neighbor states will have on the Korean peninsula. To conclude, it argues that Japan's engagement policy would be expected to contribute to the stability and peace of the Korean peninsula and East Asia.     

现阶段我国外汇储备资产管理政策优化的对策分析

随着我国外汇储备规模的增加,如何优化我国外汇储备的资产结构和经营布局,成为一个重要问题。结合中国实际,参考国外对外汇储备管理的经验,本文提出了优化我国储备资产的管理的对策建议。为了优化我国外汇储备资产的管理,首先是抑制外汇储备的不合理增长;其次是对现有的外汇储备进行币种与资产结构的渐进式调整;再次是对新增的外汇储备探索多元化的经营管理模式,提高外汇储备收益。     

试论中国保险业的现状及发展对策

本文通过中韩两国科技政策的对比 ,分析了两国的技术发展战略 ,意在为发展中国家和地区制定科技政策提供借鉴     

Monetary policy and inflation in South Africa: A VECM augmented with foreign variables

We develop a structural cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model with weakly exogenous foreign variables, known as an augmented VECM or VECX*, suitable for a small open economy like South Africa. This model is novel for South Africa in two ways: it is the first VECX* developed to analyse monetary policy and the first model that uses time‐varying trade weights to create the foreign series. We impose three significant long‐run relations (augmented purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity and Fisher parity) to investigate the effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation. The results suggest the effective transmission of monetary policy.     

On the choice of monetary policy rules for China: A Bayesian DSGE approach

Motivated by the institutional features of China's monetary policy, this paper aims at identifying the most data favored monetary policy rule for China within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model framework. In a canonical New-Keynesian DSGE model, we carry out a positive analysis by employing Bayesian methods to estimate three main categories of monetary policy rules, namely a Taylor-type interest rate rule, a money growth rule and an expanded Taylor rule with money. Based on China's quarterly data from 1996Q2 to 2015Q4, our estimation shows that the expanded Taylor rule obtains the best empirical fit to the data. Moreover, impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions demonstrate that monetary policy rules with or without money provide very different implications for the policy behavior. Our results ultimately suggest that money has so far been more closely targeted than nominal interest rate and still plays an important role as a monetary policy target in China. Furthermore, a conventional Taylor-type interest rate rule is not good enough yet to describe China's monetary policy behavior.     

Uncertainty and the choice of instruments in a two-country monetary-policy game

In the two-country, monetary-policy game of this paper, each policymaker can choose his money supply or his interest rate as his instrument. With no uncertainty there are four noncooperative equilibria, one for each possible instrument pair. A policymaker is indifferent between instruments: his payoff depends not on his choice but on his opponent's. With uncertainty, the number of equilibria is reduced, sometimes to one. A policymaker is not indifferent between instruments; his payoff depends on his choice as well as on his opponent's. In some cases each policymaker prefers the equilibrium instrument choice of his opponent, but in others at least one would prefer another choice.     

Does Korea follow Japan in foreign aid? Relationships between aid and foreign investment

Korea, an emerging donor country, largely considers its economic relations to recipients when allocating its aid. Such practices were preceded by Japan before the 1990s. We expect those similar practices between the two countries will make resemblance in aid outcomes. On a macro-level, we show similarities in aid allocations by type, region, income, and sector. The similarities are ascertained also at a micro-level by our statistical analysis on the relationships between aid and FDI. The analysis based on the FDI gravity model and panel dynamic system GMM estimation shows that only aids from Korea and Japan create more inflow of FDI into their respective recipient developing countries. Those are contrasted with other donors’ aids, which are not related to FDI or the substitute for FDI.     

Central bank policy making in competing payment systems

This paper analyzes the interaction between two payment systems. Administrators of both systems establish intraday credit interest fees, caps, and collateral requirements. Analysis of the model indicates that if a central bank does not take into account the effects that its policies have on its share of payment system transactions, then its efforts to contain risks associated with daylight overdrafts on its wire system will require a loss in its share of total transactions volume. If it does recognize the potential loss in its share of payments, then socially optimal policy instrument settings are unlikely to emerge.     

Financial constraints on investments and credit policy in Korea

The Korean financial system has been characterised by government interference and a chronic shortage of funds. Since the 1960s the government has promoted the financing of large, chaebol-affiliated firms. Towards the end of the 1980s, the government changed its focus from large firms to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study assesses the impact of this change in government policy on the financing constraints of different types of Korean firms. Using data on 198 Korean firms for the period 1991–1997, we estimate several specifications of a dynamic investment model to assess the financing constraints of Korean firms. We find that Korean firms suffered from informational asymmetries and severe financing constraints during this period, and that these imperfections differ across firms. Our findings suggest that the government’s change in focus towards SMEs has been successful in the sense that it has reduced financing constraints for these type of firms. We also find some evidence that firms with concentrated ownership are more financially constrained than firms with dispersed ownership.     

The arms trade game: from laissex-faire to a common defence policy

Multinational arms export control has been the subject of discussionin a variety of fora, from the United Nations through to theWassenaar group of arms producers. It is widely recognised thatfree trade in arms can have negative externalities on nationalsecurity and there are benefits from the international coordinationof controls. However, there has been relatively little economicanalysis of these issues, partly because the market for armsis somewhat unusual. This paper develops a partial equilibriummodel of the international arms market and compares a varietyof possible regimes from laissez-faire at one extreme, to acommon defence policy at the other.     

Bilateral trade impacts of temporary foreign visitor policy

Using country-level panel data from 1950 to 2003, this paper critically examines the impact of the US Visa Waiver Program (VWP) on bilateral trade levels. Our empirical analysis uses a variety of specifications, estimators, and robustness checks, including a ??random growth?? specification that controls for selection bias from both time-varying and time-invariant unobserved country-specific characteristics. The results indicate that a temporary foreign visitor policy with less requirements, such as the US VWP, tends to increase the bilateral trade levels between the US and the selected VWP countries, especially for US exports. This suggests that VWP may have encouraged business travel and commerce enough such that there are export benefits from this less restrictive temporary foreign visitor policy of about 10?C20% (~2?C4% in tariff equivalent terms).     

Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP–VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The parameters are allowed to follow a random walk process and estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The empirical result reveals the time-varying structure of the Japanese economy and monetary policy during the period from 1981 to 2008. The marginal likelihoods of the TVP–VAR model and other fixed parameter VAR models are estimated for model comparison. The estimated marginal likelihoods indicate that the TVP–VAR model best fits the Japanese economic data.     

Intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment: A disaggregated analysis

This paper aims at overcoming several shortcomings of previous empirical studies on the relationship between IPR protection and FDI. First of all, we use sectorally disaggregated FDI data for a large sample of host countries. Second, we address the proposition that stronger IPR protection raises not only the quantity but also the quality of FDI. Third, we check to which extent the relationship between IPR protection and FDI is affected by applying alternative measures of IPR protection. Our empirical findings support the hypothesis that the threat of an unauthorized use of intellectual-property-related assets and, thus, FDI depends on industry as well as host-country characteristics. Furthermore, stronger IPR protection may help induce high-quality FDI. JEL no. F21, F23     

Intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment: A disaggregated analysis

This paper aims at overcoming several shortcomings of previous empirical studies on the relationship between IPR protection and FDI. First of all, we use sectorally disaggregated FDI data for a large sample of host countries. Second, we address the proposition that stronger IPR protection raises not only the quantity but also the quality of FDI. Third, we check to which extent the relationship between IPR protection and FDI is affected by applying alternative measures of IPR protection. Our empirical findings support the hypothesis that the threat of an unauthorized use of intellectual-property-related assets and, thus, FDI depends on industry as well as host-country characteristics. Furthermore, stronger IPR protection may help induce high-quality FDI. JEL no. F21, F23     

Country characteristics and foreign direct investment in China: A panel data analysis

Country Characteristics and Foreign Direct Investment in China: A Panel Data Analysis. — In this paper an error-components model is developed to analyze the economic, political and cultural determinants of both pledged and realized FDI in China which has recently become the second largest host country for FDI. The panel data cover the period 1983–1994 (1984–1994) and 22 (17) home countries/regions in the case of pledged (realized) FDI. The results indicate that bilateral trade, cultural differences, and relative real changes in market size, wage rates, and exchange rates are important determinants of pledged FDI, and that bilateral trade, relative changes in wage rates and exchange rates affect realized FDI.