Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

福建省服务业FDI对服务贸易影响的实证研究

通过构建VAR模型,并运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等分析方法,对福建省2000-2012年服务业实际利用FDI与服务贸易之间的长期动态关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:在短期内,服务业FDI与服务出口存在互补关系,与服务进口存在替代关系;长期来看,服务业FDI与服务进出口的关系不稳定.最后根据结论给出一些政策建议.     

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

Several alternative measures of “effective” exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently-developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined for the U.S., the euro area, and several East Asian countries. The issues that confront the applied economist or policymaker in using the measures of real effective exchange rates available are illustrated in several case studies from current interest: (i) evaluating exchange rate misalignment; (ii) testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect; (iii) estimating the price responsiveness of trade flows; and (iv) assessing the potential impact of competitive devaluations. JEL Classification Numbers: F31, F41     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

中国货币政策数量效果的实证研究

文章主要运用了单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,利用1994年到2004年的季度数据,对货币供应量、利率这两个重要货币政策变量与GDP之间的关系进行了计量分析,利率对实体经济的影响不显著;不同层次的货币供应量都能对经济产生影响,但它们对GDP的作用效果是有差异的.为提高我国货币政策的效果,实现我国货币政策的目标提出了相关的政策建议.     

外贸结构的非均衡机理探索

经济结构呈现非均衡的常态特征。在市场不完全、信息不充分、外生条件不统一等因素的制约下,一国外贸结构形成的资源配置效率通常低于均衡世界里的帕累托最优效率,是一种“次优”均衡;这种非均衡模式可能在受到外在冲击时或通过内生演进的方式发生改变,并通过进出口商品结构、贸易方式结构等表现出来。外贸结构非均衡的核心特征是进出口商品的要素密集度高低,并与比较优势和后发优势联系在一起,成为外贸结构非均衡演进规律的主要内容。     

The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters.     

中国与日韩制造业贸易调整成本的经验研究——基于边际产业内贸易分析

本文基于边际产业内贸易分析，分别运用A、B和S指数测度法对1992-2003年间中国与日韩制造业贸易的调整成本进行了经验研究。研究结果表明，中国电气机械及器材制造、普通机械等以资本技术密集型产品为主的行业调整成本较大，而服装及纤维品制造、木材加工等以劳动密集型产品为主的行业调整成本较小。总体而言，这一时期中国与日本制造业贸易调整成本低于中国与韩国制造业贸易调整成本，但是中国与韩国制造业贸易调整成太在1998年詹旱掐千下隆曲而日太惜况却一与此相反．     

上海证券市场动态量价关系实证分析——基于股票资金流强度

以我国上海股市中股票资金流强度及日收益率为研究对象,在Var模型的基础上,利用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解对股票资金流强度与收益率进行实证分析,得出了股票资金流强度不线性Granger引导收益率,但收益率线性Granger引导股票资金流强度的结论。而股票资金流强度与收益率绝对值有双向的线性Granger引导关系.     

新疆科技产出对区域经济增长的影响实证研究——基于VAR模型

以新疆生产总值GDP作为衡量经济增长指标,将科技产出指标在科技成果、技术扩散和销售能力3个层次上分为6个二级指标。首先对科技产出指标和GDP进行相关性分析,其次对GDP和6个二级指标进行平稳性检验和差分处理,建立时间序列的3个VAR模型,运用Eviews软件对模型进行单位根检验和Engle-Granger 协整检验,得出通过检验的模型,对模型进行单变量脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到高新技术产业企业数和专利授权数对GDP的贡献度。最后针对新疆未来经济高质量、健康和稳步发展提出对策建议。     

Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar,Mark and Yen

In this paper we use an exchange rate model, which combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions, to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen and US dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. Amongst the results reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for the currencies studied; complex short-run dynamics; a variance decomposition analysis which apportions nominal exchange rate error variances into real and nominal elements.     

人民币汇率、出口退税对加工贸易收支动态冲击的实证研究

2005年汇率改革后人民币迅速升值,而之后除2009年受金融危机影响外,中国加工贸易顺差不降反增;同时,出口退税迅速增加。为解释这一复杂现象,文章用VAR模型来实证汇率、出口退税、加工贸易需求对加工贸易收支的动态冲击效应。研究发现:对加工贸易收支贡献最大的是加工贸易需求,其次是出口退税和汇率;人民币贬值和出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易收支均有J-curve效应,出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易进口正向促进效应大于出口的正向促进效应,进而导致加工贸易收支恶化。结果表明:人民币升值对加工贸易收支改善作用有限,但会降低加工贸易进出口总额;加工贸易进口对出口退税的过度敏感,提示中国政府要防止出口退税骗税和出口商品香港一日游现象。     

论ECFA对两岸经贸关系的影响——基于双边自由贸易理论的分析

签订FTA对小规模经济体而言,在降低进入成本同时,带来贸易转移效应,并利用大型经济体的资源实现自身产业链的优化,避免被边缘化的危机,提高经济水平和自身福利。本文从理论上分析了ECFA签订的必要性,并结合台湾实际,提出政策建议。     

国际商品市场中"一价定律"的验证:共同概率模型和动态贸易变量

本文讨论并引伸了Barrett和Li(2002)提出的共同概率模型,在原有基础上将贸易变量动态化,以增加在经验分析中所包含的信息量和解释能力。考虑到国际商品贸易的跨期性,我们的预期价格采用了商品期货价。我们用改进后的方法对中美大豆贸易做了实证分析,发现两国大豆市场自1995年以来基本上是整合的,并发现对竞争性均衡关系的偏离主要发生在早期,即在中国商品期货市场完善和农产品市场体制改革之前。研究还发现两国大豆价差在南美豆收获期后明显缩小。收益不确定性参数的t检验不显著在一定程度上表明了进口商对价格风险的规避行为。     

粮食价格对农民收入增长影响的实证研究

文章运用1983年以来粮食价格与农民收入的数据,通过向量自回归模型分析,发现二者存在长期均衡关系,粮食价格是农民收入的Granger原因,粮食价格对农民收入具有正向波动效应;在此基础上运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差方法进一步分析粮食价格波动对农民收入的冲击,结果表明粮食价格是影响农村居民收入的重要因素,粮食价格的不稳定会导致农村居民收入波动。根据实证结果,文章提出相应的对策建议。     

多维视角下美中贸易巨额逆差成因的实证研究

近年来,美中贸易逆差额不断攀升导致双边贸易争端此起彼伏,严重影响了两国正常的经贸关系和政治互信。美方将贸易失衡归咎为人民币汇率,而中方则指出两国贸易失衡的症结并非人民币汇率,压迫人民币升值的做法并不能从根本上解决问题,双方冲突和利益博弈行为日趋严重。在此背景下,作者以1990-2011年的美中贸易、汇率等相关数据为研究对象,从经济和政治因素出发,将人民币汇率、国际投资、全球分工、统计误差和消费储蓄等因素纳入分析,从多维视角对美中贸易逆差成因进行了定量实证分析。研究发现,美中贸易逆差的成因缘自美国、东盟对中国直接投资以及中国香港、台湾和澳门地区对中国内地的直接投资、双方的统计误差以及人民币汇率三组因素,人民币汇率并非美中贸易逆差的主要因素。在基于资产所有权的贸易净额统计方法下,作者对美中贸易的历年贸易净额进行了重新估算。美方数据结果显示,在美国报道的对中国的贸易逆差中,其数据统计被夸大;而中方数据结果显示,中国直到2006年才从对美贸易逆差转为顺差。作者认为,人民币汇率并非美中贸易失衡的主要因素,该问题之所以争论不断,主要是源于美方经济问题政治化的诉求。     

货物贸易与服务贸易:总量互补与差额替代关系

对相关主要国家货物贸易和服务贸易的数据分析表明,服务贸易和货物贸易总量上呈现出互补性特征,但是在各自差额上却呈现明显的替代性。本文研究认为,货物贸易和服务贸易差额的替代性体现了不同国家的比较优势所在。该结论的启示在于,服务部门发展和服务贸易发展是一个渐进的过程,而仅拥有劳动密集型制造业优势的发展中国家将可能长期存在服务贸易逆差。     

经济开放区域的贸易隐含碳测算及转移分析——以新疆为例

本文首先基于非竞争型区域环境投入产出模型,估算2002-2007年新疆国内外贸易中的隐含碳,分析了贸易隐含碳的行业分布特征及新疆贸易隐含碳的失衡问题。计算结果表明,国内外贸易对新疆均造成碳泄漏,但绝大部分碳泄漏来自国内贸易。运用两地区环境投入产出模型的模拟分析显示,国内贸易有助于显著减少新疆本地的CO2排放量,特别是中间投入品的贸易往来对新疆的环境正效应更大。但由于新疆目前的贸易模式不利于本地区的节能减排,因此不可盲目扩大国内贸易规模,应从降低资源型产业的能耗强度、提高生产技术水平等方面着手,促使产业结构优化升级与贸易结构低碳化调整协调发展。     

Explaining Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Approach With External and Internal Imbalances

This study employs a system estimator to examine the validity of balance of payment constrained growth model in the case of Nigeria. We modified a version of Thirlwall’s model developed by Soukiazis et al. (2014) to incorporate the role of foreign contents in growth process. The new version of the model improves significantly explaining the growth in Nigeria. The outcome of this study shows that imported intermediate and capital goods significantly contribute to manufacturing export and domestic investment growth. However, high reliance on the imports of intermediate goods constrains economic growth. World real income exerts significant effect on aggregate exports, similar arguments could not be established when the manufacturing export sector is considered in isolation. Our results reveal that economic growth in Nigeria is constrained by internal and external imbalances. The study recommends among others increasing the manufactured export share, efficient use of oil rents as well as containing budget deficit within acceptable threshold to position the economy on a viable growth path.