Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Balanced-budget Reforms of Korea’s National Pension System

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability of the benchmark pension system in Korea, which will come into effect in 2028 following the 2007 pension reforms, and the welfare effects of pension reforms aimed at a balanced budget over the life cycle. To this end, we measure the lifetime pension deficit, i.e. the difference between total pension benefits and total pension contributions in an individual’s lifetime. We find that the benchmark pension system is expected to run an average lifetime deficit of 22.36 million won (approximately $22,360), and the current pension fund is unlikely to finance the sum of future deficits. The optimal pension reform for the zero average lifetime deficit reduces social welfare by as much as a 2.06% fall in consumption and is characterised with the contribution rate of 20.3% and an average replacement rate of 66.4%. These values are much higher than the respective benchmark values, 9% and 40%, because the increase in pension benefits, combined with the increase in pension contributions, can reduce the income inequality due to the progressivity of pension benefits and the proportionality of pension contributions.     

中国改革和体制转型的制约因素

文章指出中国的改革是在起点很低的历史条件下开始的,在改革推进过程中市场机制和计划机制的摩擦与冲突异常剧烈。随着改革的不断深入,社会转型滞后问题越来越突出,严重阻碍经济转型,而来自旧体制的阻力则是推进改革和体制转型的最大难点。从30年改革和体制转型的经验来看,要继续推进改革,必须进行制度创新,因为制度的根本性是解决其他矛盾和问题的根源。     

制度变迁与制度创新的总括性分析

制度变迁与制度创新的理论在理解转轨经济体的转轨过程方面，具有特殊意义；而且在理解各国经济和社会进步的差距方面，提供了一个颇有解释力的制度分析视角；对于工业革命的起源，新经济的发轫等，也给予人们较有说服力的解释。给出制度分析和制度创新的一个总括性分析，笔者以为目前的文献（包括相关教科书）还不能给出一个令人满意的答复。鉴于此就形成了笔者的这篇文章。     

山东文化产业热流涌动

在刚刚过去的2009年,中国动漫、电影、网络游戏等文化娱乐产乐产业在全球金融危机大背景下逆势而上,成为"经济寒冬"中的一股热流.具备得天独厚文化底蕴的山东省,紧紧抓住机遇,电影院线改革的推行,出版、报业、广电集团的建立,文化事业单位的改制试点等,一系列新举措战为激活文化产业的"催化剂".山东驶入了振兴文化产业的快车道.     

The Politics of Skin Color in Brazil

Race in Brazil was constructed differently than race in the United States. This article traces the historical making of race in Brazil. I also examine recent notions of race and color that acknowledge that blacks and browns are distinctly different than whites when considering social and economic inequalities between the two. Current racial discourse in Brazil includes addressing illnesses such as anemia and diabetes as illnesses that disproportionately affect Afro–Brazilians. Such discourse was unimaginable 30 years ago. A similar racial discourse is present in American society, despite that the two have distinct racial histories. Such a discourse is potentially harmful as social meanings of race are applied to the medical field. By tracing Brazil’s history of race, this article sheds light on how race is made in a non north-American context as well as show how such constructions are dangerous at times and useful and pragmatic in other cases.     

山东国有企业改革加速

国企之变 4月13日,山东省100家省属国有企业和浙江150家民营企业的老总齐聚山东省城济南,参加"鲁浙民企国企合作发展洽谈会".会上,山东国有企业的122个项目受到了浙江民企的青睐.     

朝鲜推行经济改革的原因分析

冷战结束后,特别是金正日主政朝鲜后,朝鲜政府推行了一系列经济改革。但其改革的进程受内外影响所限并不连贯。特别是朝鲜的特殊处境,与其他国家相比,其经济改革受国内外的影响更大。近期,随着朝鲜外部环境的改善,朝鲜新一轮经济改革呼之欲出。此时,梳理、分析朝鲜经济改革的原因有助于更深入了解朝鲜的相关问题。     

The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth Households in South Korea

This study establishes the stylized facts on household balance sheets in South Korea and empirically investigates their macroeconomic implications based on the concept of ‘wealthy hand-to-mouth (HtM)’ households that hold little liquid wealth with owning large amount of illiquid assets. Using a household-level panel data for the period of 2000–2014, we find that (1) there are neither deleveraging of household debts nor a sharp decline in house price even during the financial crisis, (2) run-up in household debt in 2000s is led by high-income group, (3) regardless of net worth level, wealth is highly concentrated on illiquid assets such as housing and real estate, (4) the share of wealthy HtM households is very high compared to the cases of other advanced countries. We estimate the marginal propensity to consume out of a transitory shock and find that the consumption response of HtM households is larger compared to the non-credit-constrained group, posing a threat to macroeconomic stability. Using discrete choice models with fixed effects, we also find that a household that acquire more real estate assets is more likely to become wealthy HtM when its income is relatively lower or its indebtedness is relatively higher. We discuss the characteristics of HtM households and the role of macroprudential policy.     

全球性公共养老保障制度改革与中国的选择--与GDP相连的空帐、比与资本市场相连的实帐更可靠更可取

在上世纪90年代后期的全球性养老保障制度的大辩论中达成了一致的结论有：积累制与现收现特制一样、都不能应对人口结构老龄化带来的养老金的财政困难；如果把转轨成本也算在内的话，积累制与现收现付制的收益率是相同的。本文通过对全球性公共养老保障制度改革内容的详尽考察发现，发达国家的公共养老保障制度几乎都是现收现付制，今后也没有改为积累制的打算，并且理论上公共养老保障制度只能实行现收现付制。另外当筹资方式为现收现付制时、也可以建立缴费与给付一一对应的个人帐户，这样对我国来说就再也没有必须采用积累制的理由了。而在名义缴费确定型现收现付制中，我国现行制度中存在的激励不足、投资风险、巨额转轨成本等难题都可以较容易地得到解决。     

农村三大改革的效率反思

农村改革30周年之际,本文基于新福利经济学检验改革效率的标准,对其间发生的三大改革进行了反思,就未来农村改革的主线——形成城乡经济发展一体化新格局,提出了相关的几点政策建议。     

韩元 一篮子货币中的新贵

据央行透露,确定一篮子货币币种以及权数的原则是中国国际收支项目交易的主要国家。简单说就是与中国外贸和外债、外商直接投资关系密切的国家和地区都可能成为一篮子货币的成员。从目前看,美元、欧元、日元、韩元等自然成为主要的篮子货币。