北京汽车消费需求的动态分析与预测

北京汽车消费进入快速增长时期,主要是私人汽车消费拉动了汽车消费总量的增长。北京汽车拥有量、私人汽车拥有量与地区人均GDP、人均可支配收入和公路客运量高度相关。计量分析表明,人均GDP、人均可支配收入对北京汽车消费、私人汽车消费的需求弹性影响显著。从长期来看,私人汽车消费需求的长期弹性值均大于1,富有弹性。预测结果显示,私人汽车消费需求仍处于大幅度增长的范围。     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.     

Understanding urban poverty in two high-density suburbs of Harare,Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Urban communities are heterogeneous and averages mask inequities and deprivations among poor and rich urban communities. This article examines the situation of households residing in two low-income, high-density suburbs of Harare, Zimbabwe. The aim of the research was to contextualise urban poverty by looking at selected urban communities and vertically analysing the patterns and determinants of poverty. A household survey was administered to 1000 households and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study found high levels of income poverty and also found differences in poverty experiences between the two suburbs. The major proximate determinants of poverty were large family size; low education level of the household head; lack of income from permanent employment; low cash transfers; and short length of residence in the suburb. Increasing household income consumption can be addressed through scaling-up industries, which would result in more quality employment.     

消费支出差异性与CPI指数耦合研究

根据浙江省抽样调查数据,运用聚类分析,探索居民消费的"自然"结构,测度各阶层居民消费的权重,首次提出并构建了多层次CPI指数体系。分析发现:政府发布的CPI指标远远低于汇编的多层次CPI指标;与居民实际感受的CPI指标对比,按年人均可支配收入与就业状况分类汇编的CPI指标差距最小。     

De Vraag Naar Liquiditeiten in Nederland, 1952–1971

Summary This study examines the demand for money (broadly defined) in the Netherlands. The basic model assumes the long run demand for money to depend upon expected real income and prices, the rate of interest and a cyclical indicator. The actual money balances approach equilibrium with an exponentially distributed lag. The model is estimated with seasonally adjusted quarterly data covering the period 1952: I-1971:IV. We found an income elasticity of 0.85 and an interest elasticity of –0.20, a price elasticity close to 1 and a negative correlation between the demand for money and the cyclical indicator. We also found some statistical evidence for the hypothesis that the demand function is stable over time.

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De auteurs zijn hoofd resp. medewerker van de sectie wetenschappelijk onderzoek en econometrie op De Nederlandsche Bank N.V. Ze zijn de heer N. J. A. van der Hoeven veel dank verschuldigd voor zijn hulp bij de uitvoering van de berekeningen.     

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances

This paper considers the macroeconomic determinants of migrants' remittances to their countries of origin. In contrast to some previous analyses, we find, using data for Egypt, that both exchange rate and interest rate differentials are important in attracting remittance flows through official channels. We also find that imports financed through remittance earnings have a very high income elasticity which suggests either that these imports are consumer durables and luxury goods or that they are undertaken by higher income groups.     

Stockholms Enskilda Bank,German Bosch and IG Farben. A short history of cloaking

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyse the possibilities of Finnish households saving and their consumption patterns in the beginning of the 1950s. As a tool for this analysis, the article estimates unbalanced sector accounts and private consumption for 1950s Finnish households. These accounts allow analysing the structure of the Finnish households' income and the structure of household consumption. As these accounts are estimated for the whole country and in addition for three different categories of municipalities, they allow an analysis of welfare differences between different regions. This article is not limited to the macro analysis. Based on the individual replies of the cost living studies, some households are analysed in more depth to get a broader view on their way of living. The analysis of individual household replies is also based on the sector accounts, i.e. accounts similar to those on the aggregated level are estimated for individual households.     

Asset stocks and flows in macroeconomic theory: Resolving the ambiguities in the general IS-LM model

Summary In this paper we have critically examined the macroeconomic model developed by Benavie as a generalization of the beginning-of-period model of Tobin and of Patinkin's end-of-period approach. We have focused our attention on the ambiguous effects on income of government spending changes and tax changes that result from this model. Our conclusions are twofold. First, with respect to the effects of government spending on equilibrium income, we find that, if the demand function for money is decreasing in the interest rate, then the effect of government spending onY is unambiguously positive for any value of. The ambiguity discovered by Benavie is a result of his implicit assumption that money has the characteristics of a Giffen good. Second, in the case of the tax ambiguity, we find the source of the problem to be in the particular formulation of Benavie's asset demand functions. Benavie specifies his asset demand functions in such a way that tax changes impinge directly on these demands. If both stock and flow demands depend upon gross income and not taxes, then there isno ambiguity with respect to tax changes regardless of the value of. However, if both stock and flow demands depend upon disposable income, and hence taxes, the effect of tax changes on equilibrium income becomes ambiguous, but again independently of the value of.     

Age, Retirement, and Expenditure Patterns: An Econometric Study of Older Households

The paper explores the allocation of consumption expenditure by the older population among different categories of goods and services, and how expenditure patterns change with age within that population. Of particular interest is whether observed differences between pre-retirement and post-retirement patterns are a consequence of changes in tastes or reductions in income. An adapted form of the Deaton and Muellbauer [Am. Econ. Rev., 70:312–326, 1980] Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is estimated with data from six surveys of family expenditure and used to investigate that question. The findings suggest that observed changes in budget allocations are most closely related to reductions in income.     

The unreported income and its impact on Gini coefficient in China

ABSTRACT

Unreported income is an important factor that distorts China’s household income accounting and Gini coefficient calculation. On the basis of comparing NBS household survey data and data from China’s Cash Flow Statement, this paper estimates the size and structure of unreported income in China over recent years. Our study found that about 20% of household disposable income has not been covered by existing household surveys in recent years. In 2015, the omission rate was 19.5%. Operating income and property income have the highest omission rates. Considering that unreported income is primarily owned by high-income people, China’s falling Gini coefficient since 2009 may have resulted from the statistical omission of partial incomes of high-income group. If unreported income is re-included, China’s Gini coefficient would increase by 10 percentage points rather than decrease.     

Regulatory Pressure,Market Discipline,and Bank Spreads in India: An Empirical Exploration

Abstract

Employing data on commercial banks for 1992 to 2006, the paper examines the factors influencing bank spreads in India. The findings indicate that variations in bank size, composition of loan portfolio and bank liquidity are important determinants of bank margins. Second, the evidence is strongly supportive of the relative market power hypothesis. Finally, the evidence reveals that state-owned, de novo private and old private banks exhibit lower spreads as compared to their foreign counterparts. The analysis concludes with the policy implications of the aforesaid findings.     

Exchange Rate Volatility, Nominal Rigidities, and Persistent Deviations from PPP

It is shown how nominal exchange rate volatility can cause persistent deviations in the real exchange rate. The key to nominal rigidities is a capital market imperfection implying that agents cannot hedge perfectly against consumption risks. As a consequence, nominal changes have real effects by both affecting the ex post real purchasing power of savings and by affecting the ex ante incentives in savings and labor supply. The consequences of exogenous changes in the nominal exchange rate are considered in an OLG version of a two sector small open economy with competitive product and labor markets.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 584–609. Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark.     

Understanding High Saving Rate in China

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the Chinese saving rate based on the flow of funds data. It finds that the most widely adopted view of precautionary saving, which is regarded as the top reason for maintaining a high saving rate in China, is misleading because this conclusion is drawn from the household survey data. In fact, the household saving rate has declined dramatically since the mid‐1990s, as is observed from the flow of funds framework. The high national saving rate is attributed to the increasing shares of both government and corporation disposable incomes. Insufficient consumption demand is caused by the persistent decrease in percentage share of household to national disposable income. Government‐ directed income redistribution urgently needs to be improved to accelerate consumption, which in turn would make the Chinese economy less investment‐led and help to reduce the current account surplus. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang)     

Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes

This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of discretionary government consumption purchases on private demand. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that while discretionary changes in government consumption lead to crowding-in effects in the short run, crowding-out effects take over in the medium run. In addition, we also find that both short-term crowding-in and medium-term crowding out effects are amplified once we control for periods of crisis.     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

Bailouts,Inflation, and Risk-Sharing in Monetary Unions

This paper presents a new rationalization for bailouts of sovereign debt in monetary unions, such as those observed during the recent Euro crisis. It introduces a model where member countries of the monetary union are ex-ante identical, and each derives utility from consumption and disutility from the union-wide inflation rate. The union’s central bank is utilitarian and lacks commitment. Countries borrow or save in a market for nominal sovereign debt in response to idiosyncratic income shocks, with countries that receive positive income shocks saving and countries that receive negative income shocks borrowing. Ex post, the monetary union’s central bank will attempt to devalue sovereign debt through surprise inflation, as this will redistribute income from rich creditor countries to poor debtor countries. Creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries because bailouts will weaken the redistributive motives of the central bank and forestall surprise inflation. As bailouts in this environment constitute a payment from lucky creditor countries to unlucky debtor countries, they mimic a risk-sharing arrangement that insures against income shocks. The payments made by creditor countries are incentive-compatible due to the shared currency and inflation rate in the monetary union. This ability of countries to provide each other with incentive-compatible insurance constitutes a novel theory of optimal currency areas. This insurance benefit of the monetary union is largest for countries with negatively correlated income shocks, in contrast to the classic Mundell-Friedman optimal currency area criterion.

     

Consumption-investment trade-off,wage-profit trade-off,and terms of trade

In most modern models of international trade the assumptions made are that goods are produced, consumed and traded internationally according to the dictates of national utility functions. The gains of international trade are also seen to be higher levels of utility.This paper uses an input-output model to determine which country specializes in capital-good manufacture and which in the consumption goods. The criterion determining this in a planned economy uses the property of maximum growth rate of goods produced for a given per capita consumption (or its reverse causation of maximum per capita consumption for a given growth rate). For free market economies the criterion is taken to be in terms of profit-rate maximization for a given real wage or its reverse.Using these criteria the investment-consumption frontiers or wage-profit frontiers are described in this paper by corresponding equations. The changes in terms of trade are then interpreted as various forms of technical progress. The equations are also depicted forthe case of thriftiness of entrepreneurs being less than unity.     

Scale variable specification in a money demand function for Malaysia

We investigate what scale variable is most appropriate in the money demand function for Malaysia. Candidates include income, consumption, disposable income, and domestic absorption and these are considered for simple sum M1 and M2 and for Divisia M1 and M2. Non-nested tests and other model selection criteria such as R² are used. The non-nested tests for the M1 aggregates are inconclusive but more support is given for income as the scale variable for the M2 aggregates, especially for Divisia M2. The other procedures also show that income is preferred for M2 and some support is also given for income for the M1 aggregates.     

Performance and Capital Structure of Privatized Firms in Europe

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze whether there are differences in performance between private firms and recently privatized firms in the European Union, as well as to determine whether ownership (state-owned versus private) and regulation affect capital structure. Focusing on economic reasons that justify privatizations, we analyze whether there are differences between recently privatized state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms in their profitability, leverage and efficiency during the period 1999–2002. Also, we analyze the determinants of the capital structure of these firms. Contrary to previous studies, our results show that privatized firms are not less efficient than firms with private ownership.     

Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China

The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.