Expansion of EU's Free Trade Agreements into Asian Countries and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of EU's free trade agreements with Asian countries and the US on the Chinese economy. In addition we examine the impacts on the Chinese industry output based on the framework of production network and production fragmentation. The expansion of the EU's economic reach toward ASEAN and Japan through free trade agreement will generate a positive macroeconomic effect on negotiation participants while it generates a negative effect on the Chinese economy: Some portions of existing trade and foreign direct investment will be shifted to partner countries from non-partner countries. However, according to a sectorial analysis, EU's free trade agreements with three countries result in a positive impact on China's electronics and machinery industry, because China's industry is linked to the production fragmentation and foreign affiliates play a crucial role.     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

EU enlargement and its impacts on East Asia

Ten countries—most completing their transition from socialist-based economies to market economies—are slated to join the European Union (EU) in 2004 and four additional countries are expected to become members at some future dates. Despite the relatively small economic size of the accession countries, this type of deep integration can have non-negligible effects on countries outside of the preferential zone as the reduction in barriers across partners leads to a re-orientation of trade. In this paper, we evaluate the extent of trade adjustments and the economic impacts it will have on the East Asian economies using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The overall macroeconomic effects on East Asia are small. There is some trade diversion, but there may be an opportunity to increase market penetration in some sectors of the expanding EU for which East Asia has a marked comparative advantage. The paper also assesses the relative importance of linking trade openness to productivity and lowering trade costs between the accession countries and the EU-15.     

Political Economy of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area： A Dilemma for China

The Asia‐Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) has become a topic of focus since the proposal was first raised in 2004. The present paper considers China's policy towards the FTAAP from a political economy perspective by probing the gains, impediments and concerns for China, and makes judgments based on several possible scenarios. The author argues that from an economic perspective, China would benefit from joining the FTAAP both in a static and a dynamic manner because both its main trade partners and trade barriers in export markets are concentrated in the Asia‐Pacific region. However, whether the Chinese Government is likely to support the initiative is largely dependent on certain crucial political and diplomatic elements, including the APEC approach, US‐Chinese relations, quality of treaty, sensitive sectors, competitive proposal of alternative and membership of Chinese Taipei. Therefore, if the Chinese Government cannot ratify the ideology and terms of the initiative, or issues that are central to China's interests are not addressed, the FTAAP will only remain a proposal possessing economic possibility in the long run, without political feasibility in the near term.     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

东亚地区贸易时间与贸易持续优势研究

在各国关税已经下降到很低的水平及中间产品贸易盛行的情况下,贸易时间对国际贸易的影响愈发明显。本文把贸易时间分为贸易便利时间和物流时间,通过研究发现,贸易时间与贸易量呈现显著的负相关关系,而且物流时间比贸易便利时间的影响更大。此外,贸易时间对时间敏感产品贸易的影响,比时间不敏感产品更加显著。     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

超额货币之谜:基于东亚地区的比较分析

文章分析并比较了东亚中日韩三国货币-产出比的特点及其发展变化的内在推动力,发现从指标水平值看,中日两国一致性较强,都具有较高的货币一产出比,而韩国则差异明显;从指标增长率和主要影响因子看,中日韩三国呈现出互有交叉的共同性.在此基础上,该文认为,中国超额货币现象是中国货币政策独立性缺失和国民收入分配格局变动在货币变量上的现实折射.     

Political Economy of US Trade Policy towards China

The trade relationship between China and the USA has become increasingly important to the economies of both countries. The recent trade conflicts and friction between China and the USA constitute obstacles in the way of US—Chinese bilateral trade relationship development, which is of considerable concern to both countries. Through an in‐depth analysis of the political process of US trade policy towards China, the present paper identifies the important determinants of US trade policy towards China. The influence of US trade policy on the trade relationship between the USA and China is assessed and implications for the trade relationship between the USA and China are discussed.     

A Roadmap for Policy Dialogue and Economic Surveillance in East Asia

I. IntroductionOn 4th May, 2005, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, Japan and Korea(ASEAN+3) decided to take a significant step toward financial cooperation in East Asia.The Finance Ministers of the 13 ASEAN+3 countries agreed to strengthen the Chiang MaiInitiative (CMI) into a more effective and disciplined framework by: (1) integrating the CMIwith an enhanced economic surveillance process for the ASEAN+3 countries; (2) adoptinga collective activation and decisio…     

关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

国际贸易理论的新发展与东亚实践

企业活动的国际化在东亚日渐形成的国际分工体制中是个极其重要的关键因素,探索其为何要走向国际化,对我国参与国际分工、特别是积极实施"走出去"战略,显然具有适时和现实的实践意义.在当前分工最活跃的东亚地区,这些理论的新发展正在被实践所证实.     

Linguistic and Religious Influences on Foreign Trade: Evidence from East Asia*

Using a modified gravity model and the cross‐sectional data of East Asian economies, the present paper presents evidence that supports the view that the effect of distance‐related transaction costs on trade tends to fall over time. Overall religious influence on foreign trade exists in the post‐Cold War period but not during the Cold War period. The effects of language on inter‐regional trade and of religion on intra‐regional trade both weaken over time. In all cases, religion tends to have more significant influences on intra‐regional trade than language, and language tends to exert more significant influences on inter‐regional trade than religion. Finally, from 1985 to 1995 there is an indication that: (i) English becomes more important for inter‐regional trade; (ii) Bahasa, English and Khmer become less important for intra‐regional trade; and (iii) Chinese plays an increasing role in both intra‐regional and inter‐regional trade.     

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in East Asia: Generalized Impulse-Response Analysis

Using generalised impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the dynamic adjustment of real exchange rates to real shocks for a group of East Asian currencies. The analysis reveals that the fundamentals, or real factors, explain some, but not all, of the variations of real exchange rates, and that the different disturbances have different degrees of importance for each currency. Therefore, there is no universal panacea for fluctuations in real exchange rates. The findings leave considerable scope for policy intervention to mitigate the unfavourable effects.     

日本在东亚地区自由贸易协定(FTAs)发展中的政策变化与选择

20世纪90年代后期，在东亚地区自由贸易协定迅速发展，随之日本也改变了在贸易关系中过去更多地依赖于传统的多边途径的做法，渴望通过更多的双边自由贸易协定来建立自己真正的自由贸易框架。从日本选择双边贸易自由化伙伴的经济、贸易和投资标准来看，东亚各国无疑是日本的最佳选择对象。     

新疆与中亚地区经贸关系的战略思考

本文依据传统的比较优势理论和现代的新贸易理论,认为新疆与中亚地区经贸关系既要重视比较优势的作用,充分发挥比较优势和有利的地缘优势,又要从长远出发,在中亚区域经济合作中争取有利的规模经济优势,逐步建立在中亚市场的竞争优势。以此为思路,提出了新疆与中亚地区经贸关系的战略目标、重点和对策。     

Religion and Educational Attainment in East Asia: First Evidence from the East Asian Social Survey

Abstract

In this research note, I analyse the effects of religion on educational attainment in four East Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan) using the East Asian Social Survey. Controlling for a host of background variables, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of educational attainment show that Catholics and Orthodox Christians have on average more education than those with no religious affiliation, while the followers of other Eastern religions (including, among others, Taoism and syncretistic beliefs) have on average less education. The effects for Protestantism and Buddhism differ across the four different countries, probably because they both include various denominations and schools.     

东亚区域性内需的潜力分析

国际金融危机之后,东亚经济体普遍面临着从出口主导向内需主导的发展方式转变的压力。然而,目前各经济体单独扩大内需存在困难,本文试图将东亚内需整合起来,探讨在东亚构建区域性内需。通过进一步提升消费水平、调整投资结构、扩大区域内贸易和完善产品结构,东亚内需的潜力将会被极大地开发出来,成为东亚持续发展新的推动力。