制造业劳动生产率变动、能源资本及消费结构调整能否提升国际竞争力力

以影响制造业国际竞争力因素为视角,对制造业劳动生产率、能源资本和能源消费结构的历史变动情况进行时序分析,选用显性对比优度指数辨析制造业国际竞争力的提升态势。在此基础上,构建VAR模型检验1997-2012年期间制造业劳动生产率、能源资本、煤炭消费和电力消费与国际竞争力之间的协整性,并采用广义脉冲响应、预测方差分解法对各变量之间的动态均衡关系进行实证分析。结果表明,逐步提高以电力为代表的清洁能源比例可有助于制造业国际竞争力的提升,但目前清洁能源对高排放能源的替代效率依然过低;能源价格的波动影响了制造业国际竞争力过程中的稳定性;而劳动生产率过低是抑制其国际竞争力提升的重要瓶颈。     

劳动力资源对中国人造板产业国际竞争力的影响分析

人造板产业是劳动密集型产业,劳动力资源要素对一国人造板产业国际竞争力具有重要的影响。通过国际比较方法,分析劳动力资源对中国人造板产业国际竞争力的影响。研究结果表明:与其它人造板出口强国相比,中国的劳动力资源十分丰富,劳动力价格低廉,这是形成目前中国人造板产业国际竞争优势的重要源泉;但是中国人造板产业的劳动生产率较低,其主要原因在于劳动力整体素质不高,缺乏高级的技术性工人,不利于产业国际竞争力的持续提升。     

Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China： 2000-2009

This paper measures the industry-specific real effective exchange rate （REER） for China by matching domestic and foreign industry-level price and trade data series. We find that after 2005 the REER appreciates more in the ＂chemical, plastics, rubber and fuels industry＂ and the ＂＇machinery and equipment industry,＂ but remains roughly constant or even depreciates in other industries. The nominal exchange rate generally accounts for over 50 percent of the aggregate real effective exchange rate JTuetuations, but this conclusion does not apply to three of nine industries. We apply the industry-specific REER to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and trade, and find that the industry-specific REER index performs better than the traditional aggregate REER index. We recommend that the Chinese Government officially adopt industry-specific exchange rates instead of using the aggregate effective exchange rates to evaluate the competitiveness of Chinese industries in the international market.     

China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

FDI对我国电子工业生产率的行业内溢出效应研究——以1996—2001年43个细分行业为例

本文考察了外资对中国电子工业劳动生产率的影响。利用1996—2001年期间电子行业的9大部门和43个细分行业的面板数据,并按照无形资产比率、出口比率和国有资本比率对43个细分行业进行了分组检验,我们发现,1996—2001年期间中国电子工业的劳动生产率呈现明显的外商直接投资的溢出效应,并且在不同的行业呈现较大的波动。在无形资产比率高、出口比率高、国有资本比率高的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用显著,而在国有资本比率低、技术含量低的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用不显著。国有企业在促进劳动生产率提高方面具有积极作用,说明国营企业引进外资是一种长期有效的学习跨国公司经验的途径。而且,跨国公司通常被高生产率的电子行业所吸引,在这些行业溢出效应明显存在,但对于一些外资比率低的电子行业,这种正溢出效应不显著。

Abstract：

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI）on the labor productivity of China’s electronics industry. Using panel data of 9 major sectors and 43 sub-sectorsof the electronics industry during the period 1996—2001,and doing group test according to the ratio of intangible assets,the export ratio and the state-owned capital ratio of the 43 sub-sectors,we find that during 1996—2001,labor productivity of the Chinese electronics industry showed significant spillover effects of FDI and large fluctuations in different industries. In industries that have high intangible assets ratio,high export ratio and high state-owned capital ratio,FDI played a more significant role in promoting labor productivity than in industries that have low state—owned capital ratio and low technology contents. State-owned enterprises has a positive effect in promoting labor productivity,indicating that introducing foreign investment is an effective long term route to learn transnational corporations’ experience for state-owned enterprises. Moreover,transnational corporations are always attracted to higher productivity sub-sectors,implying significant spillover effects in these industries,while in sub-sectors with low rate of foreign invest-ment,the spillover effect is not significant.     

百年未有之大变局下中国制造业产业链安全挑战与应对研究

梳理总结当前百年未有之大变局内涵,结合国内外研究成果,阐述制造业产业链安全内涵,从挑战与机遇两方面深入剖析大变局对中国制造业产业链带来的影响,论证保障制造业产业链安全的意义,给出确保自主可控、提升国际竞争力、实现可持续发展等保障制造业产业链安全的路径,提出加强政府合理介入与引导,打磨产业技术内功;加大制造业出口与对外投资力度,提高自主品牌影响力;完善相关制度建设,打造有利于"大循环"与"双循环"的发展格局等措施建议.     

The misalignments in Chinese real effective exchange rate from 1994 to 2020: A counterfactual analysis

Using a novel panel data method proposed by Hisao, Ching and Wan (2012), we empirically evaluate the misalignments between the actual and counterfactual values of Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER, CPI-based) from 1994 to 2020, where “counterfactual” refers to the counterfactual scenarios that some major economic events had not happened. These events include China's accession to WTO from December 2001, the reforms of exchange rate regime in July 2005, June 2010 and August 2015, China's economic stimulus package in November 2008, and the US-China trade dispute started from March 2018. We calculate the counterfactual values for both real and nominal effective exchange rates (REER and NEER) in order to examine the channels of the misalignments. We find that the reform of China's exchange rate policy in July 2005 and August 2015 increased Renminbi's trade competitiveness in real term compare to foreign currencies, while other events decreased it or had no effects. The misalignments in REER are caused by the changes in both NEER and China's CPI.     

我国创意产业中的国际分工研究——基于典型发达国家和发展中国家的比较分析

本文分析我国创意产业中的国际分工,并与典型的发达国家和发展中国家进行对比.结果发现,我国创意产业的出口贸易总额及比重占据世界第一,远远超过了所研究的主要发达国家和发展中国家;我国创意商品贸易的比较优势与国际竞争力也远远领先于其他发达国家和发展中国家;但是,更进一步的分析揭示我国创意商品的出口主要集中于劳动密集型、低创意...     

基于AHP的石狮服装行业国际竞争力评价

服装行业是石狮市经济的核心,国际化是其发展的必然趋势。本文描述了石狮服装行业现状,利用AHP分析了石狮服装行业国际竞争力,为应对低碳经济发展的呼声,提出了提高石狮服装行业国际竞争力的若干对策。     

International market interdependence and learning-by-doing in a risky world

International Market Interdependence and Learning-by-Doing in a Risky World. — This paper explores the role of international financial markets for the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage in a small economy. In a world where learning-by-doing alters labor’s productivity over time, the current allocation of labor across industries determines the future productivity of labor in each industry and future comparative advantage. The presence of technological uncertainty that is imperfectly correlated across two industries affects the current labor allocation and, thus, future industry-specific labor productivity. The introduction of international financial markets to this stochastic environment influences current resource allocations, future labor productivity, and consequently, the future path of comparative advantage.     

Determinants of Competitiveness： Observations in China＇s Textile and Apparel Industries

This paper attempts to explore key determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, with special reference to Chinese Mainland. The authors conduct a survey that is designed to use productivity, supply-side and demand-side determinants to measure enterprises＇ competitiveness. The collected survey data is then analyzed using factor analysis to capture the related determining factors indicative of competitiveness at the enterprise level. The findings demonstrate that government policies and related industry infrastructure are the most important determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, followed by domestic demand. This suggests that the improvement of industry infrastructure can foster industry performance, and that more resources should be endowed to enhance the domestic business competitiveness of local enterprises. The development of domestic demand will foster the competitiveness of the textile and apparel industries on a more sustainable basis.     

Dynamics of export performance, productivity and real effective exchange rate in manufacturing: the case of Cameroon

In this study, a new sample of 38 manufacturing firms from Cameroonis examined for the period 1980-95. A production function andan export function are estimated in order to study the determinantsof TFP and export performance. The results demonstrate a mutuallyreinforcing relation between productivity and manufacturingexport performance. Moreover, the study provides evidence indicatingthat adequate management of the real exchange rate is a crucialfactor for the promotion of manufacturing exports. The performanceof the manufacturing sector in Cameroon has deteriorated substantiallysince the mid-1980s. This decline is to a large degree explainedby Dutch disease symptoms and inward-looking policies for themanufacturing sector, resulting in a highly overvalued realeffective exchange rate (REER). Based on the estimated exportand production functions, a simple dynamic model is constructedto assess the cost of this REER overvaluation, in terms of bothproductivity and exports.     

贸易开放与工资差距——基于中国制造业行业面板数据的实证研究

本文在中国贸易非均衡发展现状基础上,构建计量模型,从商品价格机制、技术进步机制和生产率进步机制角度探讨中国贸易开放影响中国制造业行业间工资差距的具体传导机制。研究发现:(1)就制造业总体而言,贸易主要通过技术进步机制和劳动生产率机制来影响行业工资,造成行业间工资差距的扩大。(2)具体而言,劳动力密集型行业中,进出口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率共同作用于行业工资差距;在资本密集型行业中,进口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率是扩大工资差距的动因;在技术密集型行业中,出口贸易是工资差距扩大的主导因素。     

Nexus between export,productivity, and competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector

This article assesses the nexus between export, productivity, and competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector. To do this, we examine the “learning by exporting” and “self-selection” hypotheses using firm-level data relating to Indian manufacturing firms relating to period from 1994 to 2017. The empirical analysis supports the “learning by exporting” hypothesis, but does not support the “self-selection” hypothesis. We also investigate the impact of export on competitiveness, and the results indicate a positive relationship. These findings remain consistent when we segregate manufacturing firms based on industries, intensity use of labor and capital, and firm ownership. In the light of these findings, we recommend that policy focus on enhancing the export capacity of manufacturing firms to further strengthen the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing.     

基于全球价值链的中国医药制造业国际竞争力和国别依赖评估

以WIOD（世界投入产出数据库）为基础，运用WWZ全球价值链分解方法，对中国医药制造业出口增加值进行解构，并基于增加值构建显示性竞争优势指数、国别依赖度等指标，评估中国医药制造业的真实状况。评估结果表明：从竞争力看，中国医药制造业出口处于比较劣势；从国内增加值率看，呈“V”形演进态势；从影响力看，中国对下游影响度小于对上游的依赖度；从国别依赖看，中国对美国出口依赖度、上游依赖度最高，但呈逐年下降态势。     

劳动力工资上涨的效应分析——以制造业为例

本文描述了制造业劳动力工资远远低于全国平均水平的事实,认为过低的劳动力工资水平存在诸多弊端,工资的适度上涨有利于经济的可持续发展。实证分析还发现,制造业劳动力工资上涨对企业出口竞争力的影响甚微。     

促进我国装备制造业产业升级的思考

装备制造业是一国国民经济发展的战略性产业,先进的装备制造业,是实现工业化的必备条件,也是衡量一国国际竞争力的重要指标,它决定了一国在经济全球化进程中国际分工的地位。鉴于装备制造业如此重要的地位,文章从装备制造业的现状出发,分析我国装备制造业与发达国家的差距,提出了提高产业规模、促进技术进步、实施名牌战略和重视人才作用等改进措施。     

温州经济技术开发区出口贸易的劳动力效应——基于制造业细分行业面板数据的实证研究

在劳动力成为经济发展的关键因素背景下,文章利用温州经济技术开发区制造业24个细分行业的面板数据研究出口贸易对行业劳动生产率、劳动收入份额和单位资产就业吸收量等劳动力现象的影响,研究发现出口贸易会降低劳动生产率,同时出口贸易会提高行业劳动收入份额并且会增加单位资产就业吸收量.此外,劳动密集型产业样本数据的实证研究得出了相同的结论,但在劳动密集型产业中,出口贸易对劳动生产率的负面影响较弱,对劳动收入的正面影响较强,且对就业的正面影响较弱.     

中国服务贸易进出口结构特征研究

基于2000—2018年中国贸易进出口数据,将服务贸易与商品贸易进行对比分析,从进口和出口两个角度研究中国服务贸易结构变化特征,并与服务贸易发达国家进行比较分析.结果表明:中国服务贸易占总体贸易比重偏低,服务贸易逆差额不断扩大;中国服务贸易出口结构渐趋优化,服务贸易进口结构则呈现两极分化的不平衡发展态势,运输、旅游等传统服务贸易依旧占据主体部分.因此,应高度重视国内服务业发展对服务贸易的基础性作用,优化服务贸易产业结构,扎实提升服务贸易国际竞争力,拓宽服务贸易合作新空间.     

Productivity Gains from Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from the Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Using the Cobb–Douglas production function and vertical specialization share, the present paper measures the productivity spillover effects of offshore outsourcing in the Chinese manufacturing industry. We examine different production factors and the degree of openness by dividing the Chinese manufacturing industry into five major categories: capital‐intensive business, technological‐intensive business, labor‐intensive business, open business and non‐open business. The results show that offshore outsourcing is positively associated with productivity in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole, but less so in labor‐intensive industries and more in capital‐intensive industries. Moreover, the positive impact of outsourcing on productivity is slightly higher in open industries than in non‐open industries. These results shed light on the differential spillover effects of offshore outsourcing on productivity. Our findings suggest that outsourcing structure is important to China's long‐run competitive advantage. China's policy‐makers should encourage further offshore capital‐intensive and technology‐intensive activities and focus more on outward‐oriented offshore businesses.