Why Are Real Interest Rates Not Equalized Internationally?

In this study, we specify a set of sufficient parity conditions for real interest rates to be equalized internationally, what we call real interest parity (RIP). Using multivariate unit root tests, which have significantly greater power than univariate alternatives, we demonstrate that these sufficient conditions are not satisfied for five industrialized nations over the period of 1960-1996. We then examine each parity condition individually to shed some light on the source of the rejection of RIP. Our results suggest that no single violation can explain the failure of RIP in all cases. It does appear, however, that the Fisher relation is the least likely to violate the RIP equilibrium, whereas uncovered interest parity (UIP) appears to be the most commonly violated. This result is consistent with a nonstationary risk premium in the foreign exchange market.     

Regional Economic Integration in the Pacific: An Empirical Study

Abstract

The Pacific Islands Forum, the regional organization comprising 14 Pacific Island countries (PICs), Australia and New Zealand is committed to strengthen regional cooperation and integration. This paper examines progress in real and financial integration in the region. Utilizing the methodology based on international parity conditions: purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity, the study concludes that while PICs’ integration amongst themselves and with Australia and New Zealand, is relatively advanced with respect to goods and services, the financial market integration remains incomplete. The policy implication is impact of further liberalization is likely to be substantial on financial markets.     

Modeling the Behavior of the KRW/USD Exchange Rate and Policy Implications

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of the KRW/USD exchange rate based on four major models. Using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as the criterion, the purchasing power parity (PPP) model using the relative producer price index (PPI) performs the best, followed by the extended investment saving-liquidity preference money supply (IS-LM) model, the Frankel model, the purchasing power parity model based on the relative consumer price index (CPI), the Dornbusch model, the Frenkel model, and the uncovered interest parity model. The generalized Box–Cox model indicates that the log-log form for the PPP model can be rejected.     

Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test

This study applies stationary test with a flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the validity of long-run real interest rate parity (RIRP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the real interest rate convergence relative to China for ten East Asian countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of interest rate convergence is in fact a stationary non-liner process. We examine the validity of RIRP from the non-linear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that RIRP holds true for ten East Asian countries. It implies that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies in the East Asian economies will be highly influenced external factors originating from China. Also, our findings point out their real interest rate convergence relative to China is mean reversion towards RIRP equilibrium values in a non-linear way.     

The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants

The linkages between the People's Republic of China and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the People's Republic of China and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Amongst all, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the mainland. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degree of financial and real integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages as well as exchange rate volatility. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (1) (2006) 128–153.     

Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds

Models that assume bonds denominated in different currencies are perfect substitutes can not explain certain empirical puzzles: the exchange rate volatility puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed volatility in real and nominal exchange rates; the Backus-Smith puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed low correlation between real exchange rates and the ratio of home to foreign consumption; the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed low correlation between home and foreign consumption; and finally, the uncovered interest parity puzzle is that these models can not explain the observed deviations from that parity. These long standing puzzles make the models harder to defend. In this paper, we present a symmetric two country portfolio balance model in which home and foreign bonds are imperfect substitutes for money in each country’s transactions technology; this of course makes home and foreign bonds imperfect substitutes for each other. Our calibrated model is capable of addressing the Backus-Smith puzzle and the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle. It does not fully resolve the exchange rate volatility puzzle, but it makes some headway. And finally it generates deviations from uncovered interest parity, though by some estimates these deviations are not large enough to be consistent with the data.     

Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests

Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Hadri and Rao (2008) that allows for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency, we are unable to reject the stationarity of Asian real interest rate differentials.     

Consumption,Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.     

Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada,Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

We revisit a significant research topic on exchange rate behavior by restating the test procedures with an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect nominal exchange rate? (ii) Do relative interest rates affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The quarterly data series for this study are taken over 55 years. The traditional parity condition model with price and interest rate as criterion variables is extended to take into account recently-verified non-parity factors, namely trade, productivity and foreign reserves. The results affirm that both parity factors and also the non-parity factors significantly affect the exchange rates of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. In our view, these findings relating to four free-floating currencies help extend our knowledge on how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems using a relevant methodological approach in this study.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?

The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR-) model, it finds strong evidence that the speed of mean reversion in euro exchange rates increases non-linearly with the magnitude of the PPP deviation. Accordingly, while the euro real exchange rate can be well approximated by a random walk if PPP deviations are small, in periods of significant deviations, gravitational forces are set to take root and bring the exchange rate back towards its long-term trend. Deviations from the PPP equilibrium for the euro-dollar rate need to be stronger in order to reach the same adjustment intensity as for other rates.

AVAR Analysis of the Impacts of Company Tax Rates on Foreign Direct Investment and other Macro-economic Variables in Australia

Abstract

Taxation policy has been recognized as a main determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the effect of taxation policy on other key macro-economic variables of interest has received little attention in the literature. This paper seeks to establish the long-run effects of a change in the Australian company tax rate on inbound FDI and other Australian macro-economic variables using vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to account for the interrelatedness of the variables under consideration. Results indicate that FDI, real gross domestic product (GDP) and trade with the rest of the world are all responsive to a change in the company tax rate.     

Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

Non-linear Co-integration between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: An Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis for Asian Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation for a group of Asian countries over the period February 1973–April 2007. We argue that the empirical failure to find evidence supporting the Fisher effect in previous studies may be attributed to the presence of non-linearities in the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. We present evidence that the Fisher relation contains significant logistic smooth transition autoregression (LSTAR)-type non-linearity. This type of non-linearity is consistent with inflation targeting and the opportunistic behavior of policy-makers. Applying a non-linear unit root test to the residuals obtained from the Fisher relation decisively rejects the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of non-linear but globally stationary in all the cases.     

当前我国利率与汇率的相关性分析及政策建议

在经济充分开放的国家,利率、汇率与资本流动之间存在不可忽视的紧密联系。利率变化引发套利资本流动,直接导致汇率的升值或贬值,汇率这种变动进而又反过来影响资本流动,影响利率。利率和汇率之间的这种关系被称为利率平价关系。本文采用利率平价模型分析了当前我国利率与汇率的相关性,并对我国的利率与汇率制度改革提出建议。     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities between the G3 Economies

Recent theoretical and empirical research in international macroeconomics has rediscovered the problem of purchasing power parity (PPP). Empirically, PPP is a bad approximation of both the short-term and medium-term properties of the data. Economists have had difficulties in explaining the persistent misalignments of real exchange rates, but new empirical research by Clarida and Galí (1995), Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 41 suggested that much of these real exchange rate movements are due to relative demand shocks. The present paper challenges this view by using an extended version of their structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model in order to identify a larger number of real shocks (labor supply, productivity, and aggregate demand) and nominal shocks (money demand and money supply). It is found that while some of their results go through in our extended framework, there is serious doubt with respect to the appropriateness of labeling those shocks which drive real exchange rates as aggregate demand disturbances.J. Japan Int. Econ.December 1997,11(4), pp. 548–583. Universität Bonn, Lennéstrasse 43, 53113 Bonn, Germany and CEPR.     

Wage rigidity and capital mobility in an optimizing model of a small open economy

Summary This paper formulates an optimizing model of a small open economy with a representative (immortal) household, a firm and a government. The asset menu consists of domestic currency, non-traded bonds and traded bonds. There is a risk premium on traded bonds, which leads to deviations from perfect capital mobility and uncovered interest parity. Taxes are lump-sum, so that finance by bonds and by taxation are equivalent. The model allows for current-account and wealth dynamics. The model assumes either purchasing power parity or imperfect substitution between home and foreign goods and either labour market equilibrium, nominal wage rigidity or real wage rigidity. The steady-state effects of a fiscal contraction, a monetary disinflation and an increase in the world interest rate are discussed. The transient effects of these policies are analysed with the aid of a multiple shooting algorithm.We thank Gerard Staarink for implementing the multiple shooting algorithm used in section 4 and we thank Professors M. Fase and J. Pen for their constructive comments on a previous version of this paper. The paper is a shortened version of discussion paper No. 168 of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.     

China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration

The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on 1-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence stating that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. In particular, China and Hong Kong appear to have experienced significant increases in integration during the sample period. It is also found that exchange rate variability plays a major role in determining the variability of deviations from these parity conditions.     

Inflation Targeting in ASEAN‐10

The paper addresses the empirical question of whether economies that do not systematically target inflation (non‐inflation targeters) experience higher exchange rate volatility as compared with inflation targeters in 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) from 1990 to 2010. The paper examines the role of real exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the reaction functions of central banks using dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results indicate that the output gap offers more useful information than the inflation gap in setting interest rates for inflation targeters, implying that the real term is more important than the nominal term. In turn, this suggests that an increase in interest rate can be wielded swiftly to reduce real gross domestic product and suppress inflation. The real exchange rate appears as a weaker determinant in setting interest rates for non‐inflation targeters. Inflation targeters experienced lower exchange rate volatility compared with non‐targeters in the ASEAN, which implies that implementation costs to their domestic economies may be marginally lower. Meanwhile, the non‐targeters follow a mixed strategy as both the inflation and real exchange rate are used as instruments to set the interest rates.