外国直接投资、外国证券投资与经济增长:以中国为

文章以中国1982-2005年的统计数据为例,通过建立格兰杰因果关系检验模型以及Johansen协整关系检验模型,对中国FDI、FPI和经济增长之间的短期关系和长期关系分别进行了实证研究,并在此基础上得出相关结论和建议.     

Financial Restructuring and Economic Growth in Thailand

Abstract

After a sharp downturn in 1998, the Thai economy has up until 2003 registered a strong growth. There has also been a significant increase in exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP). While examining the performance of the Thai economy, this paper pays special attention to the factors that contributed to the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998. Owing to increased financial rather than trade liberalization facilitated by improvements in communications technology, it is virtually impossible to eliminate the possibility of crises in the future. Through sound macro-economic management polices it is however possible to reduce the frequency of crises and their subsequent impact on the real economy. This paper suggests policies that may help to reduce the risk of similar crises in the future.     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

The Chinese electricity industry: supply capacity and its determinants with reference to OECD countries

Empirical evidence suggests that China has benefited from foreign direct investment (FDI). An important question that remains unanswered is whether China has benefited more from FDI than other countries in general, and other transition and developing countries in particular. This paper investigates this issue by performing a meta-analysis on a sample of 67 country-specific studies yielding 137 observations that have gauged the link between FDI and measures of economic growth. The results suggest that the impact of FDI is, on average, more positively significant for China than for the full sample of countries, but that the difference between China and other transition economies is less clear.     

FDI、进出口贸易对中国经济增长影响的区域差异研究

本文采用中国东、中、西部的1993年至2007年的年度样本数据,运用协整理论和VAR模型等现代计量方法,定量分析了FDI、进出口贸易对东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响的动态关系。研究发现,东、中、西部地区的FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系;东部和中部地区的进口贸易均是经济增长的Granger原因,FDI和出口贸易仅在东部构成了经济增长的Granger原因;脉冲函数和方差分解也表明,在不同的区域条件约束下,FDI、进出口贸易对经济增长的冲击并无稳定一致的关系。     

The Growth of China＇s Private Sector： A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

I. Introduction Today, the private sector is the most important component of the Chinese economy. It grows especially fast in the eastern coastal areas, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong provinces and Shanghai Municipality. The development of the private sector started firstly in southern Jiangsu province with township and village enterprises (TVEs) in110 Zhikai Wang / 109 – 120, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2006 ?2006 The Author Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics…     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

外商直接投资对中国工业部门的溢出效应分析

外商直接投资的溢出效应是获得外国先进科学与管理技术的重要渠道。通过对外商投资对中国工业部门溢出效应的初步分析,得出在21世纪初,中国工业部门引进外商投资在总体上对内资部门产出增长起到了积极的促进作用,外商投资的外溢效应为正,但这一外溢效应的作用并不是太大。因此我国政府必须采取相应措施提高我国引资的质量,提高运用外资的效益,转变全国经济增长方式。     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA: FIFTY YEARS OF DISCOURSE

The topic of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been prominent in assessments of economic development in Indonesia during the past 50 years. In this article I review Indonesia's FDI record in a historical perspective; the current urge to control FDI inflows and the need to augment domestic savings and facilitate technology transfers are not at all new in Indonesia. I draw in particular on the discourse on FDI in this journal, the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, giving special attention to contributions by this journal to the international literature on FDI and its impact. The article demonstrates that the relation between FDI and economic growth has been less straightforward in Indonesia than elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Although FDI has grown in a restrictive investment climate, on occasion it has failed to do so despite more liberal conditions. This may be attributed to the sustained role of natural resources in determining Indonesia's attractiveness as a host country of FDI.     

城市化与经济增长的动力：一种长期观点

过去30多年来,中国的长期经济增长及国民财富水平的迅速提升都与方兴未艾的城市化浪潮息息相关。展望未来10～20年,中国将有近10亿人口居住在城市,从任何角度讲,中国城市化的巨大规模都将孕育新的机会,并必将成为未来中国长期增长与经济转型的宏大主题。一定程度上,未来中国经济能否继续领跑全球,关键就在于发展中的城市化主题。一个13亿人口大国的城市化问题不但直接决定未来中国经济长期增长的动力,并将对全球经济产生深远影响。     

Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of banks, domestic and foreign, in Korea before and after the Asian financial crisis, examining how the profitability of those banks differed and identifying factors that explain why those differences existed. The performance of Korean banks deteriorated dramatically in 1998 with most banks recovering somewhat in 1999. Foreign banks did not experience the same negative effect on their performance as a rule. Overall, the domestic Korean banks suffered more severely from the Asian financial crisis than foreign banks. Several possible explanations exist. First, foreign banks, unlike domestic Korean banks, were not subject to credit allocation directives from the Korean government to selected, favoured industries. Second, foreign banks, since they relied for governance on the mother bank in the home country, achieved higher efficiency and better asset and liability management. Finally, foreign banks rely more heavily on fee-for-service income rather than loan revenue.     

Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand

The international trade literature suggests trade concentration is an important factor in the amplification of the global financial crisis. However, the relationship between trade concentration and transmission of the subprime crisis is empirically weak. Thailand is one of the countries with declining reliance on the advanced economies, yet it was greatly affected by the recent crisis. This might result because the formation of global supply chains creates both direct and indirect trade linkages. In this paper, the authors include the effects of both linkages to examine their connection to the transmission of external shocks, as experienced by the Thai economy. If total trade linkages are calculated, Thailand is still found to be highly exposed to advanced markets. Simulation using a computational general equilibrium model also indicates that the country was seriously affected by the financial crisis through indirect channels.     

Patents,foreign direct investment and economic growth in Australia, 1860–2010

We examine the long run relationship between innovation and economic development in Australia, using 150 years of data on patenting activity, and aggregate and sectoral economic indicators. Our initial results point to several important causal relationships, particularly the effects of patents on real GDP and of private capital formation on patents. We delve deeper at the sector level and find important causal relationships of patents with real foreign direct investment (FDI) since World War II. Australia's dependence on FDI for private capital formation served as an important stimulus for knowledge creation in key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and mining.     

西藏利用外商直接投资的潜力与对策

自1988年西藏自治区开始引进外资企业以来,西藏外商直接投资不断增长。但目前西藏利用外资还存在规模较小、外资企业对西藏经济拉动作用有限、外资企业对当地投资贡献率低的特点。本文对西藏进一步利用外资的潜力进行了分析,并提出了西藏提高利用外资水平的对策和建议,以促进外资与西藏经济、资源、环境等协调发展。     

Foreign Manufacturing Investment in China： The Role of Industrial Agglomeration and Industrial Linkages

This paper investigates the forces that determine the industrial distribution of foreign manufacturing investment. It highlights the importance of industrial agglomeration and industrial linkage in attracting foreign investment to manufacturing industries. Using panel data for two-digit manufacturing industries in Beijing during the period of 1999-2004, this study finds that geographically agglomerated industries with strong intra-industrial linkages are indeed attractive to foreign investment. Previous foreign investment has led to the current industrial concentration or foreign investment. Investors also favor capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, and they tend to be attracted to the most profitable and exporting industries, but avoid industries with high real labor costs and high entry barriers. Competitive local industries that possess comparative advantages are critical for attracting foreign investment. The existence of industrial clusters certainly enhances a city＇s attractiveness to foreign investment.     

Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis by using high-frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. With time-series techniques, this study confirms that benchmark stock indices often fail to provide valuable insights into currency crises, but there is evidence that developments in some sectoral indices—including those of banking and financial sectors—seem to have caused upward pressure on exchange rates. Our evidence therefore confirms the importance of financial markets as a transmission channel during the currency crisis period.     

我国短期经济增长动力研究——基于经济增长差分模型

根据国民收入理论,从投入产出与需求消耗对经济增长的影响出发,以收入决定理论为基础,建立起短期经济增长差分模型,用来帮助一个国家根据短期经济目标合理地制定经济调控战略和实现路径,促进短期经济目标的实现。在此基础上对我国经济增长动力进行实证分析,提出我国现阶段经济增长存在的主要问题和解决方案。     

基础设施投资与经济增长的关系研究

2008年金融危机爆发后,世界各国投入大量资金用于基础设施建设,以刺激经济活动,中国更是推出了4万亿元的投资计划。基础设施投资能否促进经济增长?文章首先从理论上分析了基础设施投资对经济增长的作用,然后利用中国的实践探讨了基础设施投资的作用,最后给出了有关对策。