东亚金融结构与法律制度演进及其对区域金融合作的含义

区域成员在法律制度和执法效率上的差异,将体现为金融结构的差异,这会导致共同货币政策在区域成员间的传导效果出现较大差异,影响货币联盟的稳定性。东亚各经济体的金融法律制度呈现较大的差异,相应地金融结构也有较大的差异。通过机制化的区域金融合作,采取最低协调一致标准,促进东亚各经济体法律制度和金融结构的渐进趋同,是未来东亚货币金融合作的基础。     

关于“东亚共同体”构想的几点思考

因东亚地区区情复杂,加上构建东亚共同体也是一个复杂的艰巨工程,有关各方在参与范围、对象等问题上存有分歧,为此东亚共同体建设只能是区域合作的长远目标。从发展趋势看,10+3应该成为共同体的基础,中日韩应该在其中发挥重要作用,加强与区域外国家尤其是美国的政策协调也至关重要。     

东亚金融一体化程度研究

本文通过使用汇率波动率、人均消费增长率的相关度、未抛补的利率平价偏差、双边贸易强度、利率相关度这五个指标来反映中国、日本、韩国以及中国香港、中国台湾任意两个经济体之间金融一体化的程度,并采用主成分分析的方法计算出了任意两个经济体之间金融一体化程度的大小。最后,本文依照分析结果结合目前东亚金融合作现状、东亚经济体面临的国际国内经济环境提出了促进东亚金融一体化的政策建议。     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.     

全球化动力衰减与后危机时代的东亚区域合作

世界性经济危机是人类全球化进程的重要后果之一,它以破坏性和消极的方式影响和控制全球化的速度和节奏,并展示全球化动力出现的衰减程度。2007年世界性金融危机是全球化动力衰减的外部表征,它为东亚区域合作提供了新的契机,这种契机在多大程度上转化为行动,将依赖于体系层面各国的合作程度以及中国的经济转型能否取得成功。     

Vertical Specialization and New Determinants of FDI: Evidence from South and East Asia

Abstract

By estimating a dynamic panel-gravity model of bilateral foreign direcr investment (FDI), this article investigates the location determinants of inward FDI in South and East Asia and assesses their short-run and long-run effects. The econometric results highlight the importance of the vertical specialization-, trade-, and international integration-related location factors. The gravity-specific variables are also found to be significant location determinants, whilst some of the traditional determinants are found to have either a weak or statistically insignificant effect (except host-market size) on inward FDI in South and East Asia.     

中日在东亚货币领域的博弈与竞争

随着中国的快速崛起,中日之间逐渐形成"强—强"并列的格局,这一格局对双方在东亚货币领域的合作产生重要影响。中日双方都有意争夺区域货币主导权,彼此的博弈与竞争引人注目;同时,中日双方都有着各自的缺陷并面临一些共同的困难。避免恶性竞争和"零和博弈",实现"合作中的竞争"是中日双方的最佳选择。中日双方应将中日东亚货币合作化成中日合作的纽带和推动中日关系良性发展的平台,化解双方的不信任,并推动东亚区域合作的进程。     

Foreign direct investment by Japanese firms and corporate governance: in relation to the monetary policies of China, Korea and Japan

Reflecting upon the lessons from the Asian currency crises, more attention is being paid to the importance of consolidation for the domestic financial and capital markets, as well as international cooperation to avoid disturbing factors from abroad, such as massive inflows of speculative capital. The aim of financial reforms being executed in the East Asian countries, such as Japan, Korea, and China, is to improve the managerial efficiency of the business corporations and financial institutions.Recently, foreign direct investment by Japanese firms in the rest of the East Asia has been recovering. However, the existence of a financial system to realize optimal corporate governance is indispensable for the enhancement of direct investment. Namely, it is necessary to improve corporate profitability, and to distribute the increment of such profits between the host and the investor countries, in order to boost the welfare of the respective citizens, notwithstanding the type of foreign direct investment.     

A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.     

东亚经济格局的变动及其对两岸经贸关系的影响

20世纪90年代以来,东亚经济格局发生重大变化,由日本″单极″变成了中日″双头″。这一变化导致两岸经济从单方面的依赖到互相依赖;在贸易平衡、外汇储备等方面台湾对祖国大陆更加依赖;台商投资从短期经营到本土化经营;两岸产业分工从产业间发展到产业内、产品内;两岸从企业间一般技术合作到行业组织间标准方面的合作。     

论国资委职能与会计监管模式的协作

面对国有资产所有者缺位,国有资产没有真正代表的现实状况,我国迫切需要建立起一套对国有企业实施有效监管(包括会计监管)的监控体系,国资委的成立就满足了上述需求。该文从会计及经济学视角出发,将国资委成立与会计监管两个问题结合考虑,通过探讨会计信息失真与国有资产所有     

Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Asia

Scholars have found a positive relationship between the magnitude of currency depreciation and the extent of recovery from the Great Depression for Europe and Latin America. The relationship between currency depreciation and economic activity during the Great Depression for Asian economies has not yet been explored. This paper examines this topic using data from 13 Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. We find that Asian economies responded in a similar way to currency depreciation during the Great Depression as did European and Latin American countries.     

我国中东部地区科技创新环境比较研究

构建我国中东部区域科技创新环境评价指标体系,采用因子分析方法计算21个省市的科技创新环境因子得分和综合得分,通过得分排序对评价结果和区域差异进行研究,对比地区人均GDP排序情况,认为区域科技创新环境优劣与区域经济发展水平存在一定的正相关关系。科技创新环境的优劣不同,呈现出区域发展不平衡状态。     

The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan

Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread—the difference between long- and short-term interest rates—has information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to monetary policy or not by using Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy plays an important role for the LIPTS.     

The Evolution of Australian Monetary Policy in the 1950s

The 1950s in Australia was a decade of major change in both central banking and the financial system. The changes fed upon one another: financial innovation responded to monetary policy; the authorities adapted their strategy in response. The private banks resisted the harnessing of their balance sheets to policy, and a protracted process of conflict and compromise unfolded. Meanwhile, the growth of non‐bank financial institutions undermined bank‐centred policy. Official controls on bank interest rates opened a space for the new intermediaries. The central bank's attempt to restrain their growth contributed to a credit squeeze at the turn of the 1960s.