商业银行的前沿效率研究

文章根据随机成本前沿理论,运用面板数据模型（panel date）和多元回归分析方法,测算了我国商业银行的前沿效率值（2000-2004年）,并对其决定因素进行了分析。结果表明,银行效率的提高来源于多元化的产权结构、充足的银行资本金、资产质量、人力资本、市场竞争程度等。     

发展中国家地区主义的政治经济学——以南太平洋地区为例

自20世纪60年代起,地区主义在发展中国家广泛兴起。在长期的地区主义实践中,发展中国家逐步形成了多层次、开放性、经济和安全优先的地区主义发展路径,并且正朝着综合性、多功能、外向型的方向发展。这一路径的形成主要取决于发展中国家所拥有的地区秩序的双层结构。从地区内部看,对于发展中国家而言,地区主义的发展有其特有的战略考虑。在政治上,通过对话与协商维护国家独立与主权平等,维护国内稳定和地区安全;在经济上,通过贸易、金融、货币等政策的协调,来化解内部经济矛盾与冲击。从对外联系看,尽管很多时候外部大国介入地区事务能够增进地区利益,但由于在客观上存在的对外不对称依赖关系,这种介入很可能会成为组建排他性的地区政治经济集团的制约因素。总之,由于地区内的优先政治经济考虑以及对地区外力量的借重与依赖,在可以预见的未来,发展中国家地区主义难以发展成为欧洲式的政治经济联盟。     

论经济全球化对发展中国家的影响及其应对策略

经济全球化使各种生产要素在全球范围内优化组合和资源优化配置,从而促进全球经济的迅速发展,其特征是生产、交换、分配、消费的全球化。它是一把“双刃剑”。它在推动全球生产力大发展、加速世界经济增长的同时,也带来一些负面影响,特别是对发展中国家而言,可以说是积极影响和消极冲击同在、发展机遇和严峻挑战并存。发展中国家要根据本国的实际情况,确定本国参与经济全球化的步骤、速度和深度,采取有利的战略决策和方针政策,完善其应对策略。     

Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals

This paper studies episodes of current-account reversal in developing countries (DCs) in the period 1965–1994. First, a number of persistent shifts (reversals) in the current-account balance dynamics are identified by structural break and segmented trend tests; then, the relationship between these reversals and a set of fundamentals suggested by the intertemporal approach to the current account is investigated in a panel-data set-up. We find that fundamentals play a different role in episodes of persistent deterioration or improvement of the current-account balance in DCs.     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

中国地区装备制造业的技术创新效率及影响因素分析

基于《中国工业企业数据库》提供的企业数据,构造了中国装备制造业创新生产的地区面板数据,运用Battese和Coelli[1]的随机前沿模型,对2005-2008年中国大陆30个省份装备制造业的技术创新效率及其影响因素进行了系统地测算与分析。研究发现,三大区域装备制造业的技术创新效率表现为：中部>东部>西部;30个省份可以被进一步划分为四种不同的创新模式;在2006-2008年间,装备制造业的技术创新效率呈现出明显的先升后降趋势,各地区装备制造业技术创新效率的变动主要是由企业规模、产权结构及劳动者素质等因素的变动导致的。     

福建省先进制造业R&D投入产出效率研究

首先对随机前沿函数的变量和形式加以确定。然后采用该函数和面板数据模型,研究了福建省先进制造业的R&D投入产出效率及其影响因素和收敛性。研究结果显示:R&D人员投入、R&D经费内部支出及新产品研发投入对新产品产值产出具有显著效应,其中R&D人员投入的正效应偏大;福建省高新技术产业R&D投入产出效率总体上居中,具有增长趋势和收敛性;九大行业样本期间的企业数量和政府资助对其R&D投入产出效率具有显著影响。最后针对研究中发现的问题,提出企业和政府对R&D发展应该采取的对策和解决措施。     

Financial Deregulation and the Bank Lending Channel in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia

The dominant role of commercial banks as a source of finance and the considerable asymmetry of information in financial markets in developing countries have raised an argument that the bank lending channel of monetary transmission mechanism would be very important in such countries. This study addresses the issue by investigating empirically whether there are differential effects of monetary policy on banks' balance sheets, and its implications to the existence of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially since the early 1980s when the government adopted a policy of financial deveculation. We find significant differences of balance sheet behaviour across bank classes in response to a change in monetary policy, consistent with the predictions of the bank lending view. We also found that because of access to foreign funds and the existence of bank loan commitment, the monetary policy was unable to constrain loan supply by the large (state) banks, indicating that the bank lending channel operates through smaller (non-state) banks.     

产业集聚与环境依赖对文化产业效率的影响

文化产业本身既蕴含新兴产业又包含传统业态,这种特征决定了其未来增长路径的复杂性。产业集聚程度是产业效率的重要影响因素,产业效率是产业竞争力的重要体现,而文化产业的集聚效应表现尤为突出。理清文化产业集聚程度与文化产业发展效率之间的作用机理,有助于促进区域文化产业的发展和竞争实力的提升,对促进区域文化产业的发展效率提升具有重要的现实意义。因此,文章基于2011—2018年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,关注文化产业发展过程中存在产业集聚以及空间、时间上的相关性,构建时空随机前沿模型进行技术效率测算。研究发现:2011—2018年全国文化产业技术效率呈整体下降趋势,空间交互作用及产业集聚对文化产业发展有促进作用,但文化产业表现出明显的惯性,影响了增长动能的传递;融资环境、市场环境、技术环境、制度环境对文化产业技术效率也存在显著影响。     

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a bilateral preferential agreement signed among China, Hong Kong, and Macao which opens up the China market by providing zero tariff after accession. This paper sheds light to the impacts of the CEPA on merchandise trade with an in-depth analysis on export efficiency. Despite that merchandise trade has already been fully liberalized, the estimation results indicate that the efficiency of exports to China has been on the decline since 2000. This implies that the actual value of exports to China has departed from its full potential, and confirms our suspicions on the incapability of the CEPA to boost the exports of Hong Kong and Macao to China. There is also no evidence to support that the CEPA has successfully attracted foreign investment to Hong Kong and Macao for tariff free exports to China.     

International Involvement and Production Efficiency among Startup Firms

The economic theory of small firms often requires a reasoning process distinct from those typically used for large multinational enterprises (MNEs), since small firms typically do not possess the resources MNEs commonly employ to outperform similar domestic firms. In the current analysis, we argue that new small firms with international sales can better predict their revenue stream than can comparably aged firms with only domestic sales, and, as a result, international selling firms have higher levels of technical productive efficiency. We employ 7829 firm-year observations from the 2007 to 2011 years of the Kauffman Firm Survey microdata sample in our analysis. A stochastic frontier model empirically supports the result that technical productive efficiency is positively related to the foreign sales ratio. These results hold after controlling for multiple relevant owner and firm characteristics, as well as accounting for potential endogeneity concerns.