Prospects for East Asian economic regionalism in the 21st century

It is not likely that East Asian states will regress to the mercantilist developmental state that used to engineer compressed economic growth. However, it is evident that the pattern of transformation East Asian states are undergoing, is not analogous to the path of Anglo‐American development Although the government refrains itself from arbitrarily supplying economic resources (especially financial resources in the form of subsidies or policy loans) to promote strategic industries, it does not give up commanding the market to attain a relatively higher economic growth. The relationship between the state and the market is still set up in a hierarchical fashion in favor of the former. The economic system to emerge in East Asia is the state‐governed rather than market‐centered, even if it has absorbed neo‐liberal condiments. The state‐dominant economic system of East Asia is expected to survive for a considerable period. In this regard, the establishment of a financial system to sustain the East Asian economic system has been strongly suggested. Here lies in the reason we discuss the rise of the East Asian economic identity in the post‐financial crisis era.     

Nea presidential address, 1991: Sixteenth-century European expansion and the economic decline of Africa (in honor of Walter Rodney)

Prior to the sixteenth century, the Indian Ocean trading network was one of the wealthiest commercial regions in the world. It included states of East Africa, the Arabian peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, China and Japan. By circumnavigating Africa, Portugal was the first European nation to gain access to the region. Through the exercise of naval superiority, blockading of strategic shipping lanes, imposition of duties and expulsion of Swahili and Muslim merchants, Portugal exercised a mercantile monopoly which ultimately led to the region’s rapid economic decline. Using rare historical documents from Po rtugal and Africa, this study traces the effects of Portuguese expansion on the economies of East Africa and trade in the Indian Ocean.     

区域经济金融合作:东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择

从中长期来看，全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中是不可持续的，东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下，加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。东亚国家和地区应完善区域合作协调机制、加强区域货币和贸易投资合作，并进一步促进亚洲债券市场发展。     

从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作

经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。     

东亚与欧盟区域的产品需求结构与贸易模式

东亚和欧盟分别表现为外需主导型和内需主导型的贸易模式。两种不同的贸易模式对经济发展产生着不同的影响。由于东亚区域对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖,所以,后危机时代下,东亚贸易模式转型的必要性更加明显。但是,东亚贸易模式的转型将是一个长期的过程,而中国将在这个过程中发挥重要的作用。     

中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略选择

20世纪90年代以来,世界经济的发展出现了新的趋势:区域经济一体化的发展较为迅猛。资源突破国界限制在世界范围内来实现优化配置,各国、各地区经济的相互依存程度不断提高。近些年来,东亚经济合作有了一定的发展,但是和欧盟及北美自由贸易区比起来,东亚经济一体化的发展明显落后。本文以区域经济一体化理论为基础,对中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略进行了研究,指出了中国在东亚经济一体化进程中战略存在的问题,并对中国的一体化战略提出了几点建议。     

2025年前俄远东和贝加尔地区社会——经济发展战略解读

2010年1月,俄出台了经修订的2025年前社会——经济发展战略,这是在金融危机背景下俄强国战略的新选择,此战略的出台标志着俄更加重视远东地区的发展。对这一战略进行系统地解读与研判,有利于判断俄未来远东政策的走向,促进东北亚地区经济发展以及加快我国东北地区经济振兴的步伐。     

Productivity and Comparative Advantage in Rice Agriculture in South‐East Asia Since 1870*

Rice long dominated the agricultural economies of South‐East Asia. Given the economic predominance of agriculture, the development of rice production had a significant bearing on the economies in the region. This article explains why the countries of mainland South‐East Asia long dominated the international rice market. It quantifies labor productivity in rice production and argues that simple, low‐cost and labor‐extensive, but low‐yielding production technology allowed farmers in mainland South‐East Asia to achieve significantly higher levels of labor product‐ivity than in the more densely populated rice‐producing areas in South‐East Asia and Japan. High levels of labor productivity were a major source of comparative advantage in rice production for Burma, Thailand and Southern Vietnam.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

Book Reviews

Gerald Tan, The End of the Asian Miracle? Tracing Asia's economic transformation Wendy Dobson (ed.), Fiscal Frameworks and Financial Systems in East Asia: how much do they matter? Eun Mee Kim (ed.), The Four Asian Tigers: economic development and the global political economy Paul B. McGuire, John D. Conroy and Ganesh B. Thapa, Getting the Framework Right: policy and regulation for microfinance in Asia Seiichi Masuyama, Donna Vandenbrink and Chia Siow Yue (eds), East Asia's Financial Systems: evolution and crisis Dominique Haughton, Jonathan Haughton, Sarah Bales, Truong Thi Kim Chuyen and Nguyen Nguyet Nga (eds), Health and Wealth in Vietnam Dang Phong and Melanie Beresford, Authority Relations and Economic Decision‐Making in Vietnam: an historical perspective Suiwah Leung (ed.), Vietnam and the East Asian Crisis Peter Drysdale and David Vines (eds), Europe, East Asia and APEC: A shared global agenda? Anthony Bende‐Nabende, FDI, Regionalism, Government Policy and Endogenous Growth: a comparative study of the ASEAN‐5 economies, with development policy implications for the least developed countries East Asia Analytical Unit, Korea Rebuilds: from crisis to opportunity Prema‐chandra Athukorala, Trade Policy Issues in Asian Development Jean‐Claude Berthelemy and Tommy Koh (eds), The Asian crisis: a new agenda for Euro‐Asian cooperation Yuko Arayama and Panos MourdoukoutasChina Against Herself: innovation or imitation in global business? Werner Draguhn and Robert Ash (eds), China's Economic Security     

EU enlargement and its impacts on East Asia

Ten countries—most completing their transition from socialist-based economies to market economies—are slated to join the European Union (EU) in 2004 and four additional countries are expected to become members at some future dates. Despite the relatively small economic size of the accession countries, this type of deep integration can have non-negligible effects on countries outside of the preferential zone as the reduction in barriers across partners leads to a re-orientation of trade. In this paper, we evaluate the extent of trade adjustments and the economic impacts it will have on the East Asian economies using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The overall macroeconomic effects on East Asia are small. There is some trade diversion, but there may be an opportunity to increase market penetration in some sectors of the expanding EU for which East Asia has a marked comparative advantage. The paper also assesses the relative importance of linking trade openness to productivity and lowering trade costs between the accession countries and the EU-15.     

国际金融整合下资金流动与经济增长关系研究——基于新兴经济体面板数据的分析

在引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴经济体的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响。实证结果显示:东欧地区收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但该地区若能够持续进行金融深化,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲地区的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对资金流动方向并无决定性影响,财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。最后,本文对解决我国国际收支不平衡问题提出了政策建议。     

东亚经济一体化可行性的分析

在全球化和区域化不断发展的国际政治经济环境下,欧盟和北美自由贸易区向东亚各国的一体化提供了示范效应,同时也提出了迫切的要求。因此,要实现东亚经济的长期发展,东亚经济的一体化已经成为关键因素。本文通过对东亚经济一体化可行性的分析,为以后的发展提出了思路,指出了在以后发展中要着重克服的问题。     

Lessons for Asia?: European experiences—in American perspective—in legitimizing market integration

The European Union has reached a deeper level of market integration than any other region. In many ways its success parallels the integration of national-level markets, particularly in the broadly similar continental project of the United States. This paper asks whether the EU and US cases hold any lessons for the pursuit of market integration in East Asia, and reaches two positive conclusions. First, the two Atlantic continental markets display a common content of institutions and policies that helped generate broad legitimacy for market integration. Secondly, while there is wide debate over the historical mechanisms that produced successful “embedded” market integration in the EU and the US, several of these mechanisms may be reproducible in East Asia.     

“后雁时代”中国产业发展的战略选择

随着东亚产业发展的传统雁行模式日;斩式微和后雁时代的来临,中国产业在国际后雁行模式中仍处于相对落后的地位。要改变这种不利的国际经济竞争局面,必须基于后雁行模式对中国产业发展做出战略选择：一是调整产业发展的目标和政策,建立提升中国在全球分工中地位的现代产业体系;二是正视全球尤其是东亚经济后雁行发展模式,努力提高中国产业发展的国际合作水平;三是合理进行国内产业的区域分布和转移,打造国内产业和谐发展的雁行模式。     

Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper estimates the economic impacts of the various sequential liberalization scenarios in East Asia, emphasizing the significance of the “sequence” of the liberalization process in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major findings are as follows: (1) “Sequence” matters in measuring the economic impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) scenarios in the region; (2) Scenario 1 (Korea-China FTA → Korea-Japan FTA → China-Japan FTA) is the sequence maximizing Korea's economic gains, whereas Scenario 3 (Korea-China-Japan FTA) is the one most preferred economically by China and Japan; (3) Korea's FTAs with the United States (US) and European Union (EU) can be evaluated as a preemptive strategic move, causing changes in FTA preferences of Korea and Japan; (4) the prediction of Bond and Baldwin (adjustment cost and juggernaut effect) and that of Evenett et al. (trade diversion effect) are supported by the empirical results that Korea's (China's) expected gains from northeast Asian FTA sequences increase (decrease) after Korea's FTAs with the US and EU are made; (5) predictions about the International Political Economy (IPE) theories (power consideration and domestic politics) upon the sequential FTA formations in East Asia are consistent with the findings above.     

The relationship between china and Siberia/Russian Far East: Economic cooperation and security conflicts*

This paper analyzes the current relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East from the economic and political‐security perspectives. The relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East is that of cooperation and conflict. China gains natural resources and energy from Siberia/Russian Far East, while Siberia/Russian Far East secures consumer goods, food and labor to fill its shortage from China. The two regions are in an economically complementary relationship. However, they show differences in their interests in issues such as the Tuman River Development Project. If their economic cooperation could be called the “bright” side of their relationship, there exists the “dark” side of their relationship, which is the border dispute. The paper argues that as a way to reduce conflict and increase cooperation in Northeast Asia, a multilateral security/economic organization, tentatively called the “Organization for Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia,” should soon be established.     

日本经济复苏中的东亚因素

近年,日本经济显现复苏迹象。一般认为,对东亚出口增加是带动经济复苏的牵引力之一。本文通过分析日本与东亚国家和地区间贸易格局的新特点,阐述东亚因素促进日本经济增长的原因,说明互利情况下,日本在东亚地区经济发展中应发挥的作用。     

东亚货币合作的现状分析及中国的战略选择

经济全球化和区域经济一体化的世界经济趋势对东亚货币合作提出了迫切要求,东亚国家在金融领域暴露出的金融体系脆弱性要求加强东亚货币合作。鉴于亚洲地区政治经化的复杂性和差异性,整个亚洲的金融合作条件远未成熟,但东亚地区的经济往来密切,具备了一定的基础。本文对东亚货币合作的现状和未来可能的路径和前景进行分析,并对中国的参与提出建议。