论冷战后日美安全保障体制

冷战后,日本国内政治经济状况急转直下,亚太地区挑战不断出现,日本对外战略面临新的选择。1995年起,日本开始外交努力,以赋予日美安全保障体制新内涵。从此,日美安全保障体制进入了一个新的发展时期。     

The role of U.S. naval power in the Asia‐pacific region: From regional protector to regional balancer

For more than four decades, U.S. engagement in the Asia‐Pacific was centered on two premises: a Cold War commitment to Asian security and the remarkable economic power of the U.S. The U.S. Navy provided a symbol of the United States’ commitment to protect its interests and those of its major Asian‐pacific allies. Despite the end of the Cold War, the security environment of the Asia‐Pacific region is still less changed and even a new threat of a regional naval arms race emerged in the 1990s. In this context, although forward deployments of U.S. military power in the Western Pacific have been scaled down, it is certain that the U.S. naval force will continue to play an important role as a key “regional balancer.” Amid the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the post‐Cold War era, the U.S. has still emphasized the maintenance of a U.S. forward‐deployed presence and strong defense alliances with U.S. allies in order to prevent the emergence of regional hegemonic powers and to contribute to regional stability as well as improve U.S. economic interests. Moreover, in the face of a multitude of threats from state and non‐state actors, the U.S. Navy is increasingly focused on and driven by the demands of peacetime and crisis forward presence.     

POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION OR ARMED CONFLICTS? POLITICAL CHANGES IN POST–COLD WAR AFRICA

The African political scene after the end of the Cold War has been characterized by two major issues: the development of political liberalization and frequent outbreaks of armed conflict. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the relationship between these two issues. Although political liberalization cannot directly explain the outbreak of armed conflicts, the relationship can be understood by taking patrimonial characteristics of the post‐colonial African states into account. The economic crisis and the change of the international environment after the 1980s compelled African states to launch the transformation, during which three results emerged: countries advancing successfully toward transformation into “polyarchy”; countries having fallen into severe armed conflicts; and countries in which authoritarian rulers managed to survive through introducing superficial measures of political liberalization. The characteristics of political change after the end of the Cold War can be therefore understood as transition processes of the post‐colonial African states.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

Intra‐alliance politics in Northeast Asia: The Japanese ‘defensive intervention’ towards South Korea under American pressure

Analytical interpretations of South Korea and Japan's relationship during the Cold War era and studies on the political interaction between them as an alliance game facing a common communist threat have been nearly non‐existent. This paper attempts to remedy this impoverishment of theoretical and analytical explanations by emphasizing the significant role of the Japanese Ohira cabinet on the United States‐South Korea relations from January to October 1979, the period when there was political pressure from the United States to the South Korean Park Chung‐hee regime.     

RMA and Strategic intelligence: The case of China and Japan

Two cases of China and Japan are compared in the two dimensions of strategic doctrine and the RMA program. China is disadvantaged in its general military capability; it cannot help but gain the initiative by striking first and doing the operation under a high degree of secrecy, mobility, accuracy in its concentration of firepower, and surprise. This is called the doctrine of “strategic attack” and the Chinese defense planning is called “strategic modernization.” On the other hand, the Japanese approach to RMA is called “Info‐RMA”. The Japanese basic defense strategy is a passive one and it is critical to protect the information infrastructure as Japanese territories might turn out to be the battlefield. Japan should be ready for the possibility that some pre‐RMA forces would employ asymmetrical means such as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism, or guerilla warfare. Self‐Defense Forces (SDF) also should be ready to accomplish diverse missions, such as rear‐area support for U.S. troops, as well as peacekeeping operations and disaster relief. It is ironic that the Chinese doctrine could not help but be aggressive to compensate for the weakness of strategic intelligence capability in comparison to the U.S. On the other hand, Japan could develop power‐projection capability under the name of strategic intelligence as a part of the Exclusively Defense‐Oriented Policy.     

日本参与国际碳交易的政治经济分析

随着<京都议定书>的生效,国际碳交易市场迅速发展.近年来,日本利用<京都议定书>设立的各种市场机制,积极参与国际碳交易,并取得了引人注目的成果.事实上,日本希望通过国际碳交易实现多重战略目标,为本国谋求核心的政治经济利益.在"后京都"时代,日本将更加积极地参与国际碳交易,并力图在扩大交易规模的同时,不断拓展碳交易的广度和深度.     

美国的中亚政策及其对上海合作组织的制约分析

冷战结束后,各种政治力量进入中亚,美国就是影响中亚政局重要的因素之一。中亚的资源和特殊的地理位置令美国不可忽视,美国通过政治干预和经济渗透使其对中亚国家的影响和控制不断增强。美国因素影响到中亚国家的政策取向,并有可能使中亚国家对“上海合作组织”的立场和态度发生改变,制约上海合作组织的发展。     

Linguistic and Religious Influences on Foreign Trade: Evidence from East Asia*

Using a modified gravity model and the cross‐sectional data of East Asian economies, the present paper presents evidence that supports the view that the effect of distance‐related transaction costs on trade tends to fall over time. Overall religious influence on foreign trade exists in the post‐Cold War period but not during the Cold War period. The effects of language on inter‐regional trade and of religion on intra‐regional trade both weaken over time. In all cases, religion tends to have more significant influences on intra‐regional trade than language, and language tends to exert more significant influences on inter‐regional trade than religion. Finally, from 1985 to 1995 there is an indication that: (i) English becomes more important for inter‐regional trade; (ii) Bahasa, English and Khmer become less important for intra‐regional trade; and (iii) Chinese plays an increasing role in both intra‐regional and inter‐regional trade.     

进攻崇拜:一个理论神话的破灭

攻防理论认为,第一次世界大战前的军事技术发展有利于防御,但欧洲大国却误判为进攻主导,因此它们均采取进攻性战略,并导致一战的悲剧性爆发。事实并非如此。一战前的德国军事家十分认真地研究过新型武器的防御效果,承认它们会形成战术层面上的防御主导,但他们否认这是不可逾越的障碍,并致力于通过战术和战略创新来恢复进攻的可能。因此,战术层面上的防御占优会增加战争的难度和参战国的成本,但绝不会使发动战争在军事上变得不可能。攻防理论中暗含的军事技术决定战争爆发论的失败就在于它忽视了武器与人相结合的困难,想当然地简化了军事技术与军事组织相结合的过程。实际上,军事技术只是一种结构性限制框架,并不直接或必然驱使国家采取适应某种军事战略。人类可以发挥主观能动性来克服武器的防御特性,从而恢复进攻的可能性。战争从来就是敌我双方智慧与力量的博弈,绝非由某一类武器决定。     

国防重大前沿技术遴选预测方法构建与验证

国防重大前沿技术对于国防科技创新发展和武器装备更新换代具有极为重要的意义.主要军事强国都高度重视国防前沿技术遴选预测研究,制定并发布了大量的战略性规划文件与智库研究报告,开展国防重大前沿技术超前布局和谋划.该文通过系统梳理国外战略文件、智库报告等成果,总结国外国防重大前沿技术预测方法,提出了国防重大前沿技术指标评价体系,有效识别遴选出国防重大前沿技术,为政府与军队相关部门宏观把握国防前沿技术发展方向、开展国防科技战略决策、指导装备体系构建等提供了参考和借鉴.     

我国军民技术转移的制约因素与路径选择

军民技术转移是我国实施自主创新战略的重要内容,是创新成果转化为生产力的重要途径。冷战结束后,世界各主要国家积极开展军用与民用领域技术的双向转移,以提升国防科技工业的核心能力。文章对我国军民技术转移的制约因素进行了探讨,在此基础上,提出了我国军民技术转移的路径,希望能对加快我国军民两用技术的转移,促进军民两用高新技术产业化发展起到一定的借鉴作用。     

俄罗斯国防工业“寓军于民”战略研究

俄罗斯国防工业从国家战略上重视国防工业军民融合,大力推行军转民政策。尤其在军事航天装备上,更是体现国家从战略高度上的重视和一系列政策支持。国家政策支持、循序渐进的改革以及在军工企业之间建立有效的军转民协调机制就显得十分重要。     

日本的国家形象及其塑造过程

日本在多重灾害后仍展现出积极正面的国家形象,这得益于二战后日本"苦修内功"和"对外推广",这两个重塑正面国家形象的基本着力点,与日本谋求长远发展和政治大国地位的战略密切相关。     

明治时代日本军国主义历史特性的形成

明治时代是日本资本主义形成发展并走向军国主义的时代，由于历史条件和民族传统等国情的不同，使日本在创立资产阶级军国主义时有着自己固有的历史特性，亦使其军国主义在二战结束后虽遭到失败却难以从根本上被清除。战后以来，日本军国主义在日本国内政治右倾化思潮中表现明显，这些右翼势力活跃在日本政界和社会的各个领域，它威胁到亚洲和日本平民的安宁生活，在纪念反法西斯战争胜利60周年的今天，深刻认识日本军国主义形成的历史特性，从本质上加深对日本军国主义的认识是极富现实意义的。     

THE KOREAN WAR AS AN EPOCH OF CONTEMPORARY HISTORY

The Korean War marks an epoch in the development of modern history after World War II, For Japan in particular the war had a great significance. Not only did the Korean War play a great role in the process which set out from the destruction accompanying Japan's defeat and led up to the present state of economic development, hut the fact that Japan today possesses military forces, after having renounced rearmament under Article 9 of her Constitution, is also due to the occurrence of the Korean War. Establishing the significance of the Korean War provides a key for the evaluation of post-war Japanese history.     

日本的国防产业

日本的国防产业在亚洲乃至整个世界都是比较发达的。寓军于民，生产相对集中，专业化分工较为明显，现有生产规模较小，国防经济潜力大是其主要特点。日本国防产业的发达跟政府增加高科技研发投入、实行优惠扶持政策、加强国际合作分不开。     

“入世”对中国建筑业的影响及其对策

本文用战略的思想考察分析了安徽军工企业现行组织结构存在的问题 ,提出了安徽军工企业组织结构再造的基本模式、组织管理职能划分和组织再造过程中应着重解决的问题。     

高校国防教育与思想政治教育资源整合探究

当前思想政治教育在人才综合素质培养过程中发挥的的功效越来越显著,与此同时高校国防教育的思想政治教育功能也愈发突显。本文通过论证高校国防教育和思想政治教育在目标上具有的内在一致性、内容上的交叉性以及形式上的互补性,提出了实现二者资源整合的理论基础和现实意义,并分析了二者在课程体系、师资队伍、实践活动等方面的整合路径。