Do house prices play a role in unconventional monetary policy transmission in Japan?

This study comprehensively analyzes the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in Japan using structural vector autoregression models. The empirical results show that house prices are significantly affected by UMP shocks, and fluctuations in house prices considerably affect macroeconomic variables. With a set of robustness checks and extensions, the findings indicate that house prices provide important channels for UMP transmission.     

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices.     

金融危机背景下石油价格波动对我国经济影响实证分析

通过选取我国宏观经济数据中反映消费、投资、贸易、价格水平四方面22个经济指标数据,运用因子分析法提取主因子,之后采用VAR模型,分析我国石油价格波动对宏观经济产生的影响。结果表明:贸易对石油价格的变化最为敏感,前期的波动较大;石油价格上涨对消费存在逆向影响,随着价格上涨消费的变化达到低点后缓慢回升;石油价格上涨对物价水平和投资的影响相对不明显。     

Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes, focusing on saving rates and current account balances. The econometric investigation based on the panel VAR model shows substantial demographic effects on national saving rates and current account balances in the major advanced (G-7) countries. An increase in the dependency rate significantly lowers saving rates, especially public saving rates. Further, a higher dependency rate significantly worsens current account balances.     

Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis

This paper empirically assesses the suitability of the East African (EA) countries for a regional monetary union by testing for symmetry of the underlying structural shocks. The results indicate that supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric, which does not lend strong support for forming a currency union in the EA region at the moment. However, the speed and magnitude of adjustment to shocks is similar across the countries. Therefore, further integration of the economies might lead to more favorable conditions for a monetary union. Although evidence in favor of linking an EA currency to an external anchor is weak, such support seems to favor the Euro.     

Red Holocaust

ABSTRACT

Reduced transport costs and income growth in industrialising European countries changed the market conditions for European farmers in the late nineteenth century. Grain prices fell while dairy prices rose. It has been claimed that these price changes hit large grain farmers with vested interests in grain trade particularly hard, while owner-occupiers and smallholders fared better and with help of developing cooperative associations, came out as successful commercial agriculturalists by switching to intensive branches, foremost dairying. Recent research on the Danish case, shows, however, that change was initiated on large elite estates with long-term dairy traditions. The literature on the Swedish case indicates, that larger farms switched to intensified fodder production quicker than smaller farms did, while in the early twentieth century smaller farms played an un-proportionally large role on the dairy market. Using individual farm data from two East-central Swedish parishes in 1878/80, 1895/96 and 1910/11, it is shown, that larger farms tended to modernise crop rotations and switch towards dairy production earlier than small farms did. Smaller farms caught up, and by 1910 their land use was about as strongly adapted to commercial dairy production as larger farms’ land use was.     

The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive.     

结构调整、技术进步与制造业变迁的地区差异

对我国19个省份1993年和2004年制造业统计数据的对比发现,各地区技术进步类型呈阶梯差异,技术冲击、全要素增长与结构调整也对地区间总量增长和效益变化的差异性具有显著作用。改变我国制造业增长地区差距继续扩大的现实,欠发达地区必须加快经济转型与体制改革的步伐,进一步提高结构调整的速率,积极吸收东部地区与发达国家的成熟技术和闲置资本。     

Currency substitution and the stability of the Italian demand for money before the entry into the monetary union, 1972–1998

A money demand function for M2 is estimated for Italy for the period 1972–1998 within an error correction framework. This period has been characterized by major structural changes in the Italian financial system and by major changes in monetary policy. This study takes these changes into account. Moreover, currency substitution, especially between Italy and Germany is incorporated into the model. By accounting for structural breaks and currency substitution a stable money demand function can be found.Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 373, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Uwe Hassler, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt, and Carsten Trenkler, SFB 373, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, for helpful comments. An earlier version has been presented at the ESEM 2001, Lausanne.     

贵州省城镇居民消费结构动态分析

本文采集了1996～2007年贵州省城镇居民各类消费支出的数据资料,通过各类消费支出比重变化、消费结构变动度及贡献率等方面的动态分析,揭示贵州城镇居民家庭消费支出结构的数量变化特征从而探讨优化其消费结构的途径。     

经济高质量发展、科技创新与科技人才流动的交互效应研究——以陕西省为例

基于人才流动理论,构建VAR模型,利用SPSS25.0和Eviews10.0软件处理陕西省2006—2020年的统计数据,探讨经济高质量发展、科技创新与科技人才流动的关系。研究表明：三者之间存在动态交互影响;经济高质量发展比科技人才流动对科技创新的正向影响更显著;经济高质量发展比科技创新对科技人才流动的正向影响更显著;科技创新比科技人才流动对经济高质量发展的正向影响更显著。结合陕西发展实践,建议以产业体系为抓手,推动陕西科技创新;以秦创原创新平台建设为统领,助推陕西经济高质量发展;围绕产业链布局人才链,构建陕西良好有序的科技人才流动机制。     

The Response of Trade Prices to Exchange Rate Changes

The present paper examines export and import pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in small, open economies. Using a monopolistic model, this study reveals that export and import prices should change but not in proportion to exchange rate movements. The policy implication of the results is that the pricing to market phenomenon could be a critical factor in explaining the evolution of the external trade balance with strategic interaction present in the case of prices on tradable goods. Consequently, the use of an exchange rate policy in the case of external imbalances should be a central issue within the broader context of how market structure and conduct affect the optimal traded goods prices.     

乌鲁木齐市“房价”与“地价”关系研究

在综合分析国内外相关学者对房价及地价关系分析的基础上,运用乌鲁木齐市2003年—2010年房价及地价的季度数据,在借助相关性分析模型、格兰杰因果关系检验模型、方差分析模型及非线性回归分析等统计分析模型对房价及地价的因果关系、相互影响的显著性水平以及影响程度进行深入分析。研究结果表明:乌鲁木齐市地价变化是影响房价变化的重要原因,对房价的影响具有较高的显著性,影响程度较大。     

技术创新和标准化的融合框架研究:基于供给侧结构性改革视角

在新一轮的全球产业结构大调整中,技术创新和标准化的融合发展愈发明显.立足中国情境,提出基于供给侧结构性改革视角的技术创新和标准化的融合理论框架,以进一步厘清融合过程中所蕴含的机理.其中,外部环境主要分析制度供给、产业供给和要素供给对两者融合的外生推力作用;内部核心以\"5W1H\"作为关键维度,使用战略路线图工具分析两者融合的内生拉力作用.研究认为,要善于利用外部环境资源,并准确把握内部核心环节,才能推动产生\"1+1>2\"的融合效益,为高质量推动两者融合提供了建议.     

房地产上市公司股价影响因素实证分析

近年来,在持续的房地产调控政策影响下,我国商品房市场开始出现成交量大幅下滑,房价逐步松动下滑的现象。但在此期间,房地产上市公司股票价格不仅强于大盘走势,而且其波动幅度也高于房地产销售价格指数。为此,本文选择房地产上市公司股票价格指数为因变量,选择上证综指、发电量增长率、CPI、人民币贷款利率、房地产价格指数五个因素指标为自变量进行多元回归统计建模,模型检验结果表明,房地产上市公司股价波动除具有一般金融资产价格波动的系统性、集聚性等特点外,还具有与人民币贷款利率和房屋销售价格指数负相关的特点。受宏观调控政策的持续影响,中国当前房地产市场出现一定程度的扭曲,实体经济增长对房地产上市公司股价的影响不显著。     

新疆科技产出对区域经济增长的影响实证研究——基于VAR模型

以新疆生产总值GDP作为衡量经济增长指标,将科技产出指标在科技成果、技术扩散和销售能力3个层次上分为6个二级指标。首先对科技产出指标和GDP进行相关性分析,其次对GDP和6个二级指标进行平稳性检验和差分处理,建立时间序列的3个VAR模型,运用Eviews软件对模型进行单位根检验和Engle-Granger 协整检验,得出通过检验的模型,对模型进行单变量脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到高新技术产业企业数和专利授权数对GDP的贡献度。最后针对新疆未来经济高质量、健康和稳步发展提出对策建议。     

我国上市商业银行经营绩效综合评价

在银行传统财务绩效考核指标的基础上引入了市场增加值(MVA)及风险价值(VAR)相关指标和概念,运用主成分因子分析法对2006年我国上市商业银行经营绩效进行全面综合的评价.