Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific

Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998, a number of regional central banks adopted inflation targeting. While it is possible for the average inflation rate to be close to target, deviations of inflation could nevertheless be large and protracted. We therefore explore how successful this framework has been by looking at the persistence of inflation, as measured by the sum of the coefficients in an autoregressive model for inflation, using a median unbiased estimator and bootstrapped confidence bands. We find that persistence tends to decline following the adoption of inflation targeting. The speed by which persistence falls varies across countries. Interestingly, the economies not adopting inflation targeting show a smaller decline in persistence. Overall, we conclude that inflation targeting has performed well in Asia.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

The emerging non‐profit sector in Japan: Recent changes and prospects

This paper hopes to map out the historical, legal and political contexts of the non profit sector and explore some of the recent developments which have helped expand voluntary activities and promote the changes the NPO sector has been experiencing over the last five years or so. Then, the paper goes on to raise some of the issues which need to be addressed for the further development of the NPO sector.     

2005 Asia Pacific Cities Summit Chongqing Declaration

The 5th Asia Pacific Cities Summit is held at Chongqing,China from Oct.11 to 14,2005.Fruitful discussions and exchanges of a broad scope are carriedout,and the following common understandings are reached:— Harnonious coexistence of City,Human and Nature is the goal of the development of the city.Along with the rapid urbanization,the mountains and rivers on whichmankind relies for survival are being polluted,the lakes,everglades and species are being gradually reduced,and environmental deterioration,ecocatastrophe andinfectious diseases are producing greater effects upon the stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.We are pressed to work out a road of sustainable urbandevelopment,which can on the one hand guarantee a high living quality for people of the present age,and on the other the rights of existence of the generations to come.     

Newton’s gravity law and import prices in the Asia Pacific

This paper investigates the proposition that an exchange rate depreciation will cause import prices to rise by more than the same magnitude appreciation which will cause them to fall. This asymmetry proposition is undertaken for 8 countries across the Asia Pacific using the Johansen and Engle and Granger procedures. The results show that six out of seven countries cannot reject the hypothesis of asymmetry. It is also found that one estimate each exhibits absolute PPP, complete asymmetric pass-through and partial symmetric pass-through. Partial asymmetric pass-through occurs in nine cases, and two cases exhibit explosive asymmetric pass-through. Malaysia lacked a co-integrating vector.     

Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?

The paper argues that the economies of East and South East Asia are a very diverse group, only some of which have grown rapidly over the past three decades. The fast-growing economies of South East Asia, especially Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are in a number of important respects different from the fast-growing economies of North East Asia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The different colonial legacies have had important consequences for educational progress and the distribution of income and wealth. Government intervention has tended to be less growth-promoting and more oriented to goals such as inter-ethnic redistribution of wealth. The implications of these differences for future economic growth in South East Asia are discussed.     

Corporate Restructuring and Leveraged Buyouts in the Asia Pacific 1980–2010

Leveraged buyout markets in the Asia Pacific have grown substantially since the 1980s and now play an important role in the market for corporate control. This paper undertakes an international comparative analysis of the emergence and growth of leveraged buyout firms in the Asia Pacific and their role in corporate restructuring, with a focus on Australia, Japan and South Korea. Three distinct periods in the development of these markets are identified. The paper highlights the importance of state involvement and changes in domestic economic policy around financial crises, where governments created new rules to facilitate buyouts as an organisational restructuring solution to distressed companies.     

Russia’s energy systems: Opportunities and prospects

The paper considers macroeconomic forecasts of the performance of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) up to 2030–2040 based on projections of economic development (worked out at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences), predictive assessments of the economic aspects of the production of major fuel types, Russia’s involvement in meeting the world’s demand for oil and gas, and the progress in the development of new energy sources. It is demonstrated that, according to the expected demand for energy carriers and the proposed changes in the FEC structure and technological base, carbon dioxide emissions by FEC facilities in the considered term will not exceed the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol. It is shown that the annual volume of investment in the energy industry by 2030 should be at least double the level of the 2000–2010 requirements and by 2040 it is expected to increase by another 15–20%.     

Russia’s production potential: Need for accelerated renovation and prospects

The article grounds the need to develop a purpose-oriented program for Russia??s development in the postcrisis period on the basis of formation of import-substituting and ??updating?? investments. As a way of overcoming the structural imbalance in the economy and lagging manufacturing industries, in the prospective period, we suggest to create vertically integrated intersectoral corporations similar in structure to multi-national corporations. The possibilities of realizing the potential of investment machinery for the formation of ??updating?? investments are considered.     

Financing social systems in Russia’s northern regions: Trends and prospects

The paper presents a review of the basic trends in the financial support of the social area of Russia’s North, i.e., the growth in financing, accelerated increase in pension schemes, reduction in interregional disparities, and the continuation of the priority role of centralized sources. A scenario forecast, predicting the financing rate for the social system up to 2020, is provided, according to which the basic objectives of the nearest years, i.e., adaptation to the demographic changes and removal of disparities in wages, will require integration efforts from the government, business, citizens, and workers themselves.     

APEC上海会议:APEC ECOTECH新的里程碑——APEC ECOTECH发展历程及展望

本文简要回顾了APEC经济技术合作的发展历程,指出了上海会议之前APEC各个历史时期经济技术合作发展的成果、特点和不足,重点介绍了APEC上海会议在ECOTECH方面取得的重大成果及其意义,并分析了现阶段ECOTECH亟待解决的问题及其对策。     

上海:聚焦APEC世纪盛会

新世纪初的第一个金秋十月,来自澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、中国、中国香港、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、秘鲁、菲律宾、俄罗斯、新加坡、泰国、美国和越南等亚太经合组织(APEC)经济体领导人会聚生气盎然的上海浦东,围绕“新世纪、新挑战:合作、参与,促进共同繁荣”的主题,就当前全球和亚太地区经济形势、APEC未来发展方向以及人力资源能力建设等问题深入交换意见,达成了广泛的共识,通过了《领导人宣言》及相关的《上海共识》等文件,并就当前国际反恐怖主义问题交换了意见,发表了声明,一致强烈谴责恐怖主义活动,表示要在打击恐怖主义方面加强国际合作。与会领导人还与工商界代表进行了面对面的对话,听取了工商界人士就促进地区经济增长提出的建议。此间观察家认为,此次会议使亚太区域合作进程迈出了坚实的步伐,巩固和加强了APEC各成员之间的友好合作关系,也为世界更好地了解中国、中国进一步走向世界提供了一个很好的机遇。     

唐鑫政:三次走进APEC

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员沈骥如曾对此高度评价：像唐鑫政这样的中国民营企业家出席APEC会议,一方面是中国更为开放的表现,另一方面则是中国注重公众参与意识的表达。     

Distinguishing between individual‐and household‐level poverty

Drawing on survey data from 1995, this article shows that the level of aggregation is an important component in the analysis of poverty. Utilising the Headcount Index and cumulative distribution functions, the article examines earnings among individuals and households. Specifically, it is shown that poverty measures at the individual level, compared with estimates at the household level, will transmit differential rankings of indigence. Both are important predictors of poverty and hence should be coupled when trying to understand low earnings in a society.     

A supply‐response analysis of Botswana's livestock and sorghum: An error‐correction approach

This article is a supply‐response analysis of Botswana's livestock and sorghum relative to agricultural/non‐agricultural prices (terms of trade), and of capital‐labour ratio, using an error‐correction method. Aggregate capital‐labour ratio is included to measure the importance of resource endowment in particular sectors. There has been, on average, a small progressive increase in livestock terms of trade and a decline in that of sorghum. Improvements in livestock price terms of trade encourage increased livestock (cattle) supply whereas declining terms of trade reduce sorghum production. The current arable pricing policy of the government is therefore of limited potential in transforming the sub‐sector. Increases in capital‐labour ratio tend to reduce agricultural production in the Botswana economy.     

Globalization and the anti‐globalization lobby: A deficit of thoughtfulness and clairvoyance

As the current wave of globalization strengthened, so did the fury of the anti‐globalization lobby against it. The author believes that the members of this lobby failed to take a thoughtful and balanced perspective of the on‐going integration of the global economy. Indubitably, globalization has its winners and losers. The author establishes that if the members of this group take a good look at the two sides of the coin in an objective and unprejudiced manner, they are sure to see the folly of their ways. Evidence is available to show that on balance, globalization has had enormous beneficial effect and has improved the plight of the poor in the global economy.     

＂The Belt and Road＂ Initiative and APEC Regional Economic Cooperation

Facing the profound changes in today＇s global political and economic situation, ＂the belt and road＂ initiative turns to be China＇s the most significant regional arrangement and opening-up strategy, which embraces great internal consistency with APEC graphically, methodologically and connotationally, and deeply related to the FTAAP Initiative.