Toward regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia1

The financial and economic crisis in 1997–98 came as a dramatic shock to East Asian economies, and has prompted to institutionalize a regional financial and monetary cooperation. This paper demonstrates the strong will of East Asian countries to develop the regional financial and monetary cooperation, outlines recent developments, and provides possible prospects for the future. It points out that the option to keep consistent with the IMF system actually weakens regional solidarity, and recommends an immediate establishment of a strong regional surveillance and peer pressure mechanism for the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to evolve into a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, a sort of East Asian IMF. It also argues that East Asian countries should closely coordinate their exchange rate regime to maintain intra‐regional and extra‐regional exchange rate stability.     

Commodity prices and monetary policy in emerging East Asia during the global financial crisis

In the first phase of the global financial crisis, rising inflation was a major concern for emerging East Asian central banks. Coupled with a slowing US economy, regional central banks faced a monetary policy dilemma of either addressing higher inflation or supporting moderate growth. Higher food and fuel prices were the major drivers of headline inflation. Their causes, however, were a confluence of mutually reinforcing cyclical and structural factors. Understandably, different economies faced a different balance of risks between price stability and growth; but to attribute the inflation to supply shocks alone was misleading. This was unsettling given that inflation and inflation expectations were on the rise, and without much credibility, the reluctance of many central banks to raise interest rates risked repeating the mistake the advanced economies made in the 1970s. Without credibility, inflation expectations are unlikely to be well anchored. To gain credibility, a central bank must ‘walk‐the‐talk’, and understandably it must have the autonomy to do so.     

东亚货币合作的现状、条件及可能模式

由于东亚金融危机的教训、日本政府对日元国际化的推动以及欧元的诞生给区域货币合作起了良好的示范作用，近年来亚洲货币合作的步伐正在加快，其中最主要的是东盟10 3财政部长在泰国清迈达成的清迈协议。但是由于工资与价格的灵活性不强；产品分散程度不高；区内贸易占各国与各地区贸易额的比例不高；经济发展水平差异较大；生产要素流动性较差；经济政策差异较大；经济合作的基础与机构缺乏；金融市场一体化程度较低；历史、宗教相近程度不高；政治摩擦依然存在等原因，东亚目前要开展大规模货币合作的条件是不成熟的。但是该地区今后进行货币合作的可能和愿望会不断的加剧，如果进行合作的话，可分为三个阶段渐次展开：亚洲货币基金阶段、汇率联盟阶段、单一货币阶段。     

东亚金融结构与法律制度演进及其对区域金融合作的含义

区域成员在法律制度和执法效率上的差异,将体现为金融结构的差异,这会导致共同货币政策在区域成员间的传导效果出现较大差异,影响货币联盟的稳定性。东亚各经济体的金融法律制度呈现较大的差异,相应地金融结构也有较大的差异。通过机制化的区域金融合作,采取最低协调一致标准,促进东亚各经济体法律制度和金融结构的渐进趋同,是未来东亚货币金融合作的基础。     

东亚区域合作赢取“弯道超车”

金融危机当下，贸易保护主义抬头。包括中国在内的东亚各经济体应抓住机遇，通过发展FTA加强区域合作，或许能迎来“弯道超车”的机会     

美国金融危机影响下的东南亚经济

美国的次贷危机不仅引起自身金融系统问题的暴露,也引发了一场全球性的金融危机。以外向型经济为主的东南亚国家能否抵挡这样的冲击,东南亚的经济会受什么影响。东南亚金融危机是否会再次发生,本文从美国金融危机的普遍性影响到东南亚经济的具体特点作了分析,探讨了美国金融危机与东南亚经济的关系。     

Openness and growth in East Asia after the Asian crisis

Openness with respect to trade in goods, services and foreign direct investment has a positive marginal effect on growth. The fast-growing East Asian economies were early openers, and this contributed to their fast growth. However, East Asian countries are not relatively open today. This factor, together with the convergence effect of fast growth in the past, imply that their economies will slow down. Their growth prospects are further reduced by growing geographic discrimination against their goods and services in world markets, and the slow down of the Japanese economy.     

Fiscal lessons from the East Asian financial crisis

This paper examines the financial crises experienced in East Asian countries beginning in 1997. A common thread of these occurrences is the failure to address the risks of positions and policies by either the public or private sector, suggesting that there is a need to improve fiscal flexibility, to better understand public sector assets and liabilities, and for a more flexible public cash management or control system. The international community may need to establish fast-disbursing assistance systems to support this increased flexibility.     

Bank financial structure in pre-crisis East and Southeast Asia

Seeking evidence on the role of bank governance in the 1997 crisis, we study financial structure and bank performance from 1987 to 1997. Financial performance ratios (capital adequacy, liquidity, profitability, and loan preference) are regressed on structural variables (bank assets, net income, administrative expenses, and time), focusing on banks’ management efficiency and financial performance. During financial liberalization, loan-preference ratios were higher, perhaps signaling more risk; so were capital-adequacy ratios. Capital adequacy falls, then rises as management size increases; profitability behaves oppositely, indicating diminishing returns. Thailand’s, Korea’s and Indonesia’s banks show stronger lending preference but weaker profitability; possible harbingers of crisis.     

An empirical analysis of the factors determining the financial crisis in Asia

This article tests a hypothesis that the causes of the Asian financial crisis are weaknesses in the balance sheet of financial institutions, high international interest rates, high short-term external debts, excessive loans, and continuing large current account deficits. It also tests a hypothesis regarding the determination of nonperforming bank loans. Empirical tests are carried out with panel data on seven countries in Asia—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand—for the 1995 through 1997 period. The 3-month LIBOR interest rate and nonperforming loan rates of banks are found to be the major determinants of the Asian financial crisis. The nonperforming bank loan ratios are explained by the corporate leverage ratio. In addition, both the corporate high leverage ratio and LIBOR interest rates are found to significantly affect the outcome of the Asian crisis. Lowering world interest rates and taking the measures of individual Asian countries to reduce nonperforming assets and debt-to-equity ratios would be very effective in preventing reoccurrence of the crisis.     

关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

金融危机影响下日本对亚洲经济合作新战略

近几年在金融危机的影响下,日本一改往日脱亚入欧转向回归亚洲的经济合作新战略。对日本亚洲经济合作新战略的形成、基本思想、内容和基本目标进行剖析,具有重要的现实意义。在剖析日本对亚经济合作新战略基础上,对日本当前的具体经济战略进行分析,并分析其对当前中日关系的影响,研究发现日本的亚洲经济新战略并没有实质性改变其政治大国的目的。     

东亚金融合作的经验分析与理性反思

金融危机后,从单边角度考察,东亚各经济体又陷入了一种汇率制度选择的囚徒困境,东亚地区的汇率安排问题需要求助于区域性的金融合作机制。东亚强势国家的政府在跨国界的经济制度安排中更能够发挥强制性制度变迁的主导功能,并提供制度化的合作体系。为了防止市场溢出和政策外溢,降低合作成本,避免逆效合作与搭便车行为,保证金融合作的稳定推进与分步实施,必须通过多次博弈,对东亚国家的货币政策、财政政策以及汇率政策进行国际间的协调。     

金融危机下中越经贸合作之探讨

随着席卷全球的金融危机向实体经济的蔓延,我国的传统出口市场美欧等国及地区的需求大幅下降,从而使拉动中国经济快速增长的三套马车之一出口遭受了严重下滑。在这样的形势下,寻找新的经济增长点,努力提升与其他新兴市场的贸易份额,不失为实现今年GDP增长保8的有效措施之一,而加强与我们最重要的邻居之一——东盟成员国越南的经贸合作无疑为我们的一项重点。本文探讨了中越经贸合作的历程、现状,中越开展经贸合作的优势、存在问题、解决方法以及合作的重点领域,具有一定的现实意义。     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

大国地缘战略与东亚经济合作

影响东亚合作的因素是多方面的，地区内及区域外国家的不同地缘战略诉求是决定该地区经济合作道路和前景的重要因素。不同战略力量的演化和地区战略的矛盾与冲突影响了地区经济合作的深度和未来走向。探索并构建适合地区经济发展的模式是摆在东亚各国面前的严峻课题。     

浅析国际金融危机下中日经贸合作新契机

本文将就金融危机爆发前后中日在贸易额、依存关系及跨国投资方向三方面的变化,分析其产生的经济原因,即合作对等性加强及贸易保护主义抬头,并利用贸易结合度指数论证在新经济形势下中日双边贸易合作的新契机,并对于中日贸易合作前景提出展望。     

Regional cooperation for control of transboundary air pollution in East Asia

This paper assesses policy options available for environmental cooperation to abate acid rain pollutants in East Asia. We argue that the multilateral approach, rather than the bilateral one, should be employed as a “control policy.” As for “control strategies,” effective incentive-based environmental policies including a charge system in conjunction with the promoting of cooperation for a regional environmental protocol/treaty are required in order to make up for the lack of contractual enforcement available to participants. As well, joint scientific/economic research is crucial to prevent a free rider problem and to convince regulators that benefits exist from multilateral cooperation. However, trade sanctions will create undesirable side effects and rivalry. Competition may undermine the effectiveness of a side-payment system to abate pollution at the national level.     

International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters,non-floaters,and capital controls

This paper analyzes the impacts of the United States (US) monetary shocks on East Asian countries using structural vector-autoregression (VAR) model. We find that the impacts of the US monetary shocks on East Asian domestic interest rates and exchange rates contradict conventional wisdom. The conventional exchange rate channel is unlikely to play much role in the transmission of the US monetary policy shocks to floaters in East Asian countries, excluding Japan. In these countries, the domestic interest rates respond strongly to the US interest rate changes, by giving up monetary autonomy, probably because of fear of floating. However, the domestic interest rate does not respond much in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes and capital account restrictions, such as China and Malaysia. This may suggest that the countries with fixed exchange rate regimes enjoy a higher degree of monetary autonomy, most likely with the help of capital account restrictions.