Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

Inward and outward foreign direct investment and poverty: East Asia vs. Latin America

Using panel data of 12 middle-income countries in East Asia as well as Latin America, this paper examines how openness in general and outward FDI in particular affects poverty. While economic growth and trade openness are found to be associated with lower poverty, both outward and inward FDI adversely affect the mean income of the poorest quintile of the population. The results hold in both regions, though the Latin American countries seem to be in a somewhat less favorable situation.     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Japan's Policy Stance on East Asian Neo-Regionalism: From Being a “Reluctant”, to Becoming a “Proactive” State

Abstract

This article is a theoretically grounded empirical contribution aimed at shedding light on Japan's policy stance on East Asian neo-regionalism. It aims to examine the recent region-building process in East Asia. The dynamics in East Asia suggest that regional institutionalization, brought about by norm diffusion based on the idea of neo-regionalism, is likely to follow a progressive and evolutionary trajectory through the institutionalization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?+?3 (South Korea, Japan and China). It provides a wide spectrum of regional-integrationist perspectives in order to offer as full a picture as possible of Japan's role in promoting regional integration in East Asia. The key finding of this article is that Japan has changed from a being “reluctant”, to becoming a “proactive” state in the context of regional collaboration in East Asia.     

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Cambodia

This paper analyses the determinants of the factors that might influence inward FDI in Cambodia by referring to its economic, geographic, and political characteristics. Using exclusive unbalanced panel data sets during 1995–2005, for both approved and realized FDI for, respectively, seventeen and fifteen home countries, the estimation results show that the determinants of approved FDI and realized FDI are somewhat similar. The FDI home country's GDP, its bilateral trade with the host country and the exchange rate have a positive impact on inward FDI flows into Cambodia. As expected, geographic distance negatively affects the level of FDI inflows in Cambodia.     

Demographic Aspects of Urbanization in Korea

Abstract

This study analysed the location selection determinants of Korean foreign direct investment (KFDI) from the perspectives of OLI paradigm and resource- and knowledge-based views. The study involved a sample of 1911 Korean multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their 3095 foreign subsidiaries during the period of 1999–2004. Specifically, the study compared the differences of foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions (1) between less-developed and developed countries (LDCs and DCs) and (2) between chaebols and non-chaebols. The results showed that the partitioned sample model of chaebols versus non-chaebols was found to have more detailed effects on the location decision between the two regions than the combined full sample model. In addition, the results showed that there are clear, effectual differences for subsidiary scale and prior host country experience between chaebols and non-chaebols.     

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.     

Why do people oppose foreign acquisitions? Evidence from Japanese individual-level data

This study empirically examines the determinants of individuals’ attitudes about inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using responses from questionnaire surveys that were originally designed. Individuals’ preferences for inward FDI differ between greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and people are more likely to have a negative attitude toward M&A than greenfield investments. People with a negative image of the so-called “vulture fund” for foreign capital tend to oppose inward FDI, and this is more pronounced for M&A than greenfield investments. Moreover, loss aversion and high time preference rates are strongly related to opposition to inward FDI, and people with such behavioral biases tend to refuse indigenous firms to be acquired by foreign capital, even if they agree to accept greenfield investment. These results indicate that people’s preferences for inward FDI depend more on non-economic attributes than economic attributes. Our results also suggest that a lack of economic literacy is associated with unconscious biases against accepting inward FDI.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

Population Problems of the Countries of Asia

Abstract

This study seeks to explain the variation in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and Asia. The analysis focuses on 19 Latin American and Asian countries for the period of 1979–1999. The results show that the variation in the U.S. FDI can largely be attributed to the differences in fundamental economic and social factors such as market size, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, macro-economic stability, the degree of trade openness, and both school enrollment and infrastructure availability. Separating the data into two time periods reveals interesting results about the location decisions for U.S. investors. In addition, the results from the comparison between the two regions show that Latin American countries clearly attract U.S. FDI for different reasons than Asian countries.     

The “fifth world”: Regarding the historical dimension and current relevance of the refugee and migration problem

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether the host country's financial reform promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We test the hypothesis on the reform period Chinese provincial yearly panel data. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation shows that the effect of financial reform on inward FDI to GDP ratios is not statistically significant after controlling for other variables and time and province effects. Consistent with the previous studies, market size and openness to international trade have significant effects on the FDI/GDP ratio in both Least squares dummy variables and system GMM estimations.     

Understanding FDI and production networks in East Asia

We provide evidence from the electronics industry in East Asia supporting Kojima's (1973) hypothesis that FDI moves from capital‐exporting countries' disadvantaged industries into host countries' advantaged industries. These results imply that FDI and trade are complementary, unlike in Mundell's (1957) model where they are substitutes. The results also indicate that exchange rate volatility deters trade, implying that reductions in the service link costs between production blocks can promote fragmentation. These findings imply that host countries in East Asia can receive technology transfers by lowering service link costs.     

The determinants of location choice of South Korean FDI in China

By using extensive and unique firm-level data for South Korean foreign affiliates in China, we investigated the determinants of location choice for South Korean multinational companies. South Korean companies are unevenly distributed inside China with more than 60 percent of their affiliates being located in the three northeast regions. Using conditional logit estimation, we found that market size and government policies approximated by economic zones, quality of labor, and transport infrastructure play a positive role in deciding location. On the other hand, labor costs, inner waterways, and distance show negative and significant coefficients. Finally, the model specification is shown to be robust to possible violation of the assumption of identical independent error terms. Some of the estimation results stand in contrast to those of other studies on the determinants of FDI stock flows from the world or Japan.     

我国服务业外商直接投资的决定因素分析——基于行业面板数据的实证检验

什么是服务业外商直接投资最主要的决定因素?以往文献存在一定的争论,有观点认为市场因素最主要,还有观点认为前期服务业FDI和制造业FDI对当前服务业FDI的流入最重要。本文利用我国1997～2008年各服务业分行业的面板数据对我国服务业外商直接投资的决定因素进行实证检验。结果表明,没有前期服务业FDI流入时,我国的市场规模、贸易开放度、经济增长率及服务业发展水平是吸引服务业FDI的主要因素;而存在前期服务业FDI时,制造业FDI、前期服务业FDI的流入,即集聚因素成为吸引服务业FDI的主要因素。     

Dynamic relationship between China's inward and outward foreign direct investments

This paper studies the dynamic relationship of China's inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI). It first identifies the key determinants of China's outward FDI (OFDI) in 172 host countries during 2003–2009 using a partial stock adjustment model. It finds strong evidence of dynamic adjustment in China's OFDI stock with an agglomeration effect. The dynamic adjustment and agglomeration effects are stronger in “high-tech” countries than in “low-tech” ones but indifferent in host country's resource endowments and income levels. The empirical results suggest that there exists a substantial adjustment cost in China's OFDI and that China's existing OFDI stock can gradually adjust toward its long-term equilibrium level, which is not only greater but also more volatile than the actual stock. Of particular interest is that we find a strong and positive relationship between lagged inward FDI (IFDI) and contemporaneous OFDI, implying that capital outflow from China has been partially induced by the countries which have invested in China.     

Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: evidence from Europe

This paper examines the effects of inward and outward FDI on income inequality in Europe using panel cointegration techniques and unbalanced panel regressions. Our main result is that both inward FDI and outward FDI have, on average, a negative long-run effect on income inequality. This result is robust to employing alternative estimation methods, controlling for potential outliers, using different measures of FDI and inequality, and changing the period and sample selection. Other findings are: (i) while the long-run effect of inward and outward FDI on income inequality is clearly negative, their short-run effect appears to be positive. (ii) Long-run causality runs in both directions, suggesting that an increase in inward and outward FDI reduces income inequality in the long run, and that, in turn, a reduction in inequality leads to an increase in inward and outward FDI. (iii) There are large cross-country differences in the long-run effects of inward and outward FDI on income inequality; for some countries the long-run effects on income inequality are positive.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S EXPORT PERFORMANCE: DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT SUPPLY

This paper presents both a comparative analysis of South Africa's export structure and performance and an econometric investigation of the determinants of export volumes. The paper finds that the improved growth and diversification of South African manufactured exports during the 1990s lag those of East Asia and a few other resource‐based economies. This performance in part reflects relatively low world growth in resource‐based products, but factors that affect the profitability of export supply, such as the real effective exchange rate, infrastructure costs, tariff rates and skilled labour, are also shown to be important. Export demand and the ability to compete in the export market on the basis of price are not found to be a major constraint to export growth.     

Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?

The paper argues that the economies of East and South East Asia are a very diverse group, only some of which have grown rapidly over the past three decades. The fast-growing economies of South East Asia, especially Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are in a number of important respects different from the fast-growing economies of North East Asia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The different colonial legacies have had important consequences for educational progress and the distribution of income and wealth. Government intervention has tended to be less growth-promoting and more oriented to goals such as inter-ethnic redistribution of wealth. The implications of these differences for future economic growth in South East Asia are discussed.