The magnification effect in global value chains

We examine the “magnification effect,” which demonstrates that as the number of separable production stages increases, trade increases dramatically as trade costs decline. We empirically investigate the existence of this magnification effect by estimating gravity-type equations for worldwide trade to obtain the tariff elasticity of trade per industry. We find that tariff elasticity is higher in industries with a greater degree of global value chain participation. These results are observed for both gross and value-added trade. Furthermore, we find that tariff elasticity is higher in intra-Asian trade, especially in machinery industries.     

Does participation in global value chains extend export duration?

This paper investigates the relationship between participation in global value chains (GVCs) and export duration based on a model of discrete‐time proportional hazards. The econometric analysis relies on the merged data of Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (CASIF) database and Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) database over the period from 2000 to 2013. Empirical results suggest that participation in GVCs could positively extend export duration and is robust to various specifications, including the samples with multiple spells, measurement error, and the alternative measure of participation in GVCs. Further studies based on heterogeneous variables demonstrate that the improvement of product quality, asset‐specific investment, and product diversity for enterprises participating in GVCs could positively extend export duration. This paper contributes to our understanding of how participation in GVCs affects export duration based on firm heterogeneity. Our results may have important implications for enterprises wishing to avoid export risks.     

The peculiar insertion of Brazil into global value chains

Brazil plays a very peculiar role in global value chains (GVC ): the country imports high technological goods in general while going through early deindustrialization and relying mainly on basic goods for its exports. Even after developing a broad, diversified industrial framework and becoming one of the countries that has received more foreign direct investments since the 1990s, Brazil has been struggling to occupy a more technologically oriented place in GVC s. This paper examines the conditionings of this pattern of insertion by characterizing the country's quantitative and qualitative model of integration into GVC s and by analyzing the elements that can explain this performance.     

Domestic segment of global value chains in China under state capitalism

This paper studies the relationship between the changing domestic segment of global value chains and the return of state capitalism in China. To this end, we propose a method to estimate an extended input-output (IO) table that tracks inter-sector transactions between different types of firms in a domestic economy. The method is an application of constrained optimization, which relies on basic information from a country's national IO table, as well as sector- and firm-level data. We also propose a way to construct bootstrapped standard errors for any global value chain (GVC) measures estimated from the extended IO tables. We then use the extended IO table to study the domestic segment of GVC in China. We find that, not only is state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) domestic value-added to gross exports ratio much higher than those of other firms, but it also increased significantly from 1.2 in 2007 to 1.7 in 2010. Our findings suggest that, even after years of privatization, SOEs still play an important role in shaping China's exports.     

Digitalisation,automation and upgrading in global value chains – factory economy actors versus lead companies

This article investigates the differences in the application and impact of digital technologies between manufacturing subsidiaries and lead companies, the principal orchestrators of global automotive value chains. Utilising a dataset of 10 in-depth interviews with automotive industry actors, we analyse headquarters–subsidiary differences in the patterns of digitalisation-driven upgrading. A theoretical framework is offered that explains why the significant upgrading achievements of manufacturing subsidiaries deploying industry 4.0 technologies will not reduce the gap between lead companies and manufacturing subsidiaries in terms of value generation. We show that the concept of ‘industry 4.0’ is much narrower than that of ‘digitalisation’ and transition to smart factories is only part of the digital transformation story. Industry 4.0 technologies contribute to the upgrading of operations, and enable subsidiaries to take on production-related knowledge-intensive assignments (functional upgrading). Conversely, digitalisation serves lead companies’ strategic differentiation efforts, and facilitates achieving competitive advantage: the latter are crucial for value capture.     

全球价值链背景下北京市现代制造业海外直接投资的发展战略新思维

本文首先分析了全球价值链的本质特征,在此基础土分析了北京市现代制造业海外直接投资的发展战略,提出了海外直接投资以整合产业链的新思维。     

Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence

The article analyzes that how much and to what directionthe inherited structure of the Central and East Europeancandidate countries was transformed in recent years, andwhat this shift meant for their real convergence in theenlarged EU. A rearrangement of historical importanceoccurred across the main sectors contributing to GDP, inthe framework of which services have been emancipated.Transition in manufacturing was characterized by a largevariation among countries in terms of speed of restructuring.Good output performance, however, is found not necessarilyassociated with large structural shifts. The dominance oflabor intensive products in manufacturing indicates thatproductivity catching up will necessitate further massiveshifts in this sector in some candidate countries. The moveaway from central planning meant also a drastic fall indomestic savings which, from the point of view catching up,shifted the emphasis to the ability to attract foreign savingsand the efficient use of savings in general.     

Bioenergy and global land-use change

This is the first article that econometrically estimates the global land-use change impact of bioenergy. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-run relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land-use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land-use change both through the direct and indirect land-use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35 578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12 125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total worldwide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land-use change and wheat land-use change have the highest elasticities with respect to both oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, nonbiomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land-use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land-use change associated with oil price increase (+10 600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land-use change associated with increase in biofuel production.     

Structural change in the yellow fats market

The superexogeneity of wage equations is tested in four major European countries. This is an important issue because while only weak exogeneity is needed for estimation purposes and for testing, and strong exogeneity for forecasting, superexogeneity is required for policy analysis. The procedure suggested by Engle and Hendry (1993) is adopted to carry out the empirical analysis. In all cases the conditional model is not affected by the first and second moments of the residuals from the marginal models. This invariance result implies that the estimated linear regression models are not subject to the Lucas critique over the period examined. Differences in wage determination between the various countries can be plausibly interpreted as resulting from the bargaining environment.     

Convergence Across the EU Regions: Economic Composition and Structural Transformation

This paper refers to 1995–2006 and analyzes the role and sources of within- and between-sectors convergence in the context of the economic catching-up process across the European Union regions. The perspective adopted here overcomes the prevailing theoretical and empirical contributions referred to as the one-sector economic growth model by Solow that neglects the implications of economic composition and structural transformation on regional aggregate growth and catching-up. Further, a comparison between the results from the fixed effects panel data model and cross-regions ordinary least square estimates allow consideration of the technological differences in the economic and sectoral speeds of convergence. The growth-accounting approach integrates these results and underlines the role of structural composition and change on the process of economic and between-sectors catching-up.     

Structural change and industrial classification

Understanding of structural change is compromised because scholars do not clearly articulate the limits of the classification infrastructure (NAICS or GICS) that shapes empirical analysis. These limits are particularly salient in the study of innovation, an activity that by its nature challenges existing categories. Because innovative industries are often not part of the classification infrastructure, they are invisible in empirical analyses and in government statistics. This paper examines the classification of a population of highly innovative, often small, firms working in gaming devices, packaging, filtration, photonics, imaging, biomedical research and fabless semiconductor design. I find examples of knowledge integration, vertical disintegration and emerging industries that challenge both NAICS and GICS exposing their strengths and weaknesses.     

Low-wage manufacturing and global commodity chains: a model in the unequal exchange tradition

The institutional setting of subcontracted manufacturing hasa profound impact on how the benefits of trade are distributed.This paper develops a model that combines insights from unequalexchange theorists and global commodity chain analysis to clarifythe distributive dynamics of production networks in which subcontractingand branding are defining features. In this framework, the abilityof productivity growth to increase income from exports is constrainedand depends on how the benefits of productivity improvementsare captured—as lower consumer prices or higher rentsfor brand-name multinationals. Increasing consumption in affluentconsumer markets raises export earnings. However, developingcountries, acting alone, are constrained in their ability toaffect the demand side of global commodity chains. Instead,supply-side policies to support industrial upgrading representa more viable option for raising incomes.     

Prospective NATO or EU membership and institutional change in transition countries1

This article quantifies the impact of incentives related to potential membership on institutional change as measured by the World Bank Governance Indicators. Based on a panel of 25 transition countries for the period from 1996 to 2008, we show that pre‐accession incentives provided by EU and NATO clearly matter for institutional development. In addition, path‐dependency determined by cultural norms may be overcome by economic liberalization, while foreign aid hampers institutional development.     

世界保险业应对全球气候变化研究动态

气候变化正在使保险业面临严峻挑战.保险业作为以风险管理为己任的行业,有责任、有义务、有能力为了应对这次工业文明史上最大的挑战而积极行动.世界范围内保险业对气候变化的关注与日俱增,有远见的公司已经积极行动起来应对气候变化带来的挑战,不少新的险种兼顾了保险发展和气候变化问题,取得了较好的经营效果和社会效益.     

华尔街动荡与国际金融格局的转变

随着雷曼兄弟破产、芙林证券被收购、AIG寻求支持、高盛与大摩转行,华尔街金融动荡进一步蔓延.次贷危机重创了欧蔓金融市场并且波及全球.不断恶化的金融市场让人们感到恐慌.当今世界,国际金融格局发生了重要变化:美国在国际金融市场上的地位明显衰落,欧洲的地位进一步上升;亚洲尤其是东南亚国家和一些产油国积累了大量财富,在国际金融市场中将扮演越来越重要的角色.次贷危机进一步恶化了美国在全球的金融地位,对中国而言可能是一个契机,我们需要重新审视蔓国的金融模式,在加强风险管理的同时采取恰当的措施提高中国在世界金融中的地位.     

International trade and the negotiability of global climate change agreements

This paper examines the incentives for individual countries to engage in global negotiations to reduce carbon emissions in order to prevent global warming. To reduce carbon emissions a country reduces consumption of its own good. The direct effect of reducing its own consumption is that consumption declines and with it utility. However, reducing carbon emissions also lowers global temperatures and that increases utility. The trade-off between these two effects determines the incentive for countries to reduce carbon emissions. We find that larger countries are more likely to participate because a given percentage reduction in output will result in a larger reduction in global temperatures. Longer time horizons also lead to greater willingness to participate. The presence of international trade makes carbon reduction agreements more likely because reducing the output of your own (export) good has a positive terms of trade effect which reduces the cost of output reduction.