贸易条件恶化与我国比较优势分析

发展中国家贸易条件的持续恶化使人们对比较优势战略的有效性产生了怀疑。文章借鉴超边际分析方法。利用李嘉图模型，对发展中国家的贸易条件恶化进行了模型化分析，发现贸易得益只取决于相对偏好和相对人口比例的大小，进而通过模型分析对我国比较优势的战略选择提出了一些看法。     

关于当前我国对外贸易商品结构问题的思考

当前我国外贸商品结构的突出问题是:出口以劳动密集型产口为主;关键技术设备、高端产品进口依赖度高;战略资源的进口依赖度显著提高。劳动密集型商品出口快速大幅增长的同时,贸易条件持续恶化。解决这些问题的对策是:实行有选择的适度贸易保护和国内支持政策,促进我国比较优势和产业结构的不断升级。加强对出口的调控,防止贸易条件继续恶化。实施国家紧缺资源安全战略。     

我国服务和货物部门对外贸易对彼此的贡献率分析--基于1997年投入产出表及其扩展表的计算

国际服务贸易的发展与国际货物贸易密切相关,尤其是在中国这样一个国际货物贸易蓬勃发展的国家,因此,实证分析我国国际服务贸易与国际货物贸易的相互贡献程度很有必要.本文对我国服务进出口对货物部门和货物进出口对服务部门的贡献率进行了研究.从为对方生产部门增加值的形成和增长的贡献率来看,我国货物进出口对服务部门的贡献大于服务进出口对货物部门的贡献.这说明了我国对外货物贸易的蓬勃发展已经并且还会促进服务业的增长.但是,我国服务进出口对货物部门发展的贡献却相对小得多,说明我国国际服务贸易亟待发展.     

中国贸易条件及其影响因素的经验分析:1980-2002

本文利用1980-2002年的数据分别对我国的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件进行实证分析。结果表明工业制成品出口和外资企业出口是导致价格贸易条件恶化的最重要原因,而出口量和顺差是促使收入贸易条件提高的最重要因素。另外,初级产品进口是随工业制品的出口而影响贸易条件的,而外资企业出口对价格贸易条件的恶化效应大于其对收入贸易条件的改善效应。     

我国服务出口的国际比较及对策选择

当今世界经济的发展中心已转向服务业，服务贸易已成为国际贸易的重要组成部分。顺应服务贸易自由化趋势，全面开放我国服务市场，是我国入世的重要承诺，也是我国实现现代化的战略选择。以服务市场开放和服务出口为切入点，研究我国服务贸易的发展现状并进行国际比较，在此基础上按WTO服务贸易规则建立服务市场、扩大我国服务出口，对于加速我国服务贸易发展具有重要的现实意义。     

我国服务贸易开放度研究

加入WTO以来,在全球性和区域性服务贸易自由化的推动下。我国加快了服务贸易的对外开放。文章通过对比我国服务贸易和货物贸易的开放度。研究我国的服务贸易开放情况。结果显示。到目前为止。我国服务贸易开放进展缓慢。原因主要在于服务贸易进口与出口额增长缓慢。针对这两点,文章提出了相应的五条建议。     

外资流入部门的结构特征与我国贸易条件恶化的关系

我国的贸易条件持续恶化有着多种原因解释,本文从20世纪90年代以来我国外资大多流入偏劳动密集性的部门结构特征出发,解释它对我国贸易条件恶化的影响。结论是在存在无限供给劳动力的条件下,我国贸易条件恶化与外商直接投资流入的偏劳动密集性的部门结构有关。为改善中国的贸易条件,必须加强对外资流向的部门结构引导,加大外资向资本、技术密集型部门以及现代服务业流动。     

RTAs下中韩农产品贸易条件及变动趋势研究

农产品贸易历来是区域贸易协定谈判中的敏感话题之一。随着中韩自由贸易区谈判进程的不断加快,农产品领域中存在的障碍显得尤为突出。本文通过引用价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件两大指标对中韩农产品贸易条件进行了测算并得出结论:中韩农产品贸易中中国的贸易条件得到了显著改善。在对分类农产品贸易条件的分析中发现,除第三大类及第四大类农产品贸易条件在部分年份出现恶化外,其余大部分年份均得到了改善。两国农产品贸易条件的持续改善奠定了两国农产品贸易自由化的良好基础。     

中国服务业FDI与服务贸易进口的替代关系

分析了我国服务业FDI的利用现状和服务贸易进口现状。运用需求理论选择研究变量,采用1997—2011年的时间数据,通过进行协整检验、构建脉冲响应函数和进行方差分解分析,对服务业FDI与服务贸易进口的替代关系进行了分析。结果显示:服务业FDI与服务贸易进口之间存在长期均衡关系;长期内,服务业FDI与服务贸易进口之间存在替代关系,且服务业FDI对服务贸易进口的贡献率最大;货物贸易进口与服务贸易进口之间存在互补关系,且货物贸易进口对服务贸易进口的贡献率较小。     

外资流人部门的结构特征与我国贸易条件恶化的关系

我国的贸易条件持续恶化有着多种原因解释,本文从20世纪90年代以来我国外资大多流入偏劳动密集性的部门结构特征出发,解释它对我国贸易条件恶化的影响.结论是在存在无限供给劳动力的条件下.我国贸易条件恶化与外商直接投资流入的偏劳动密集性的部门结构有关.为改善中国的贸易条件,必须加强对外资流向的部门结构引导,加大外资向资本、技术密集型部门以及现代服务业流动.     

International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation

This paper examines the special role that trade liberalization in service industries can play in stimulating not only trade in services but also in goods. International trade in goods requires inputs from several services industries (trade services, such as transportation, insurance, and finance) in order to complete and facilitate international transactions. Restriction on the ability of national service providers to provide these services across borders and within foreign countries creates additional costs and barriers to international trade above those that would arise in otherwise comparable intranational exchange. As a result, trade liberalization in services can yield benefits, by facilitating trade in goods, that are larger than one might expect from analysis of the services trade alone. This paper explores this idea using simple theoretical models to specify the relationships between services trade and goods trade. The paper also notes the role of services trade in a model of international industrial fragmentation, where production processes can be separated across locations but at some cost in terms of additional service inputs. The incentives for such fragmentation can be larger across countries than within countries, owing to the greater differences in factor prices and technologies available. However, the service costs of international fragmentation can also be larger, especially if regulations and restrictions impede the international provision of services. As a result, trade liberalization in services can also stimulate fragmentation of production of both goods and services, thus increasing international trade and the gains from trade even further.     

Trade liberalization and Firms’ export performance in China: Theory and evidence

The focus of the literature surrounding trade liberalization has recently shifted from trade liberalization in imported final goods to studying the effects of trade liberalization in imported intermediate inputs. This emphasis fits very well the trade liberalization experience of China following its accession to the WTO in 2001. In this paper, we build a multi-sector heterogenous-firm model with trade in both intermediate goods and final goods, and we ask: How do final-goods producers respond to trade liberalization in imported inputs? Do they respond differently across sectors? How do firms respond differently to trade liberalization in imported-outputs instead? We separate the total effect of trade liberalization into those caused by inter-sectoral resource allocation (IRA) and by within-sector selection of firms according to productivity (which we call Melitz selection effect). It is the IRA effect that gives rise to differential impacts of trade liberalization in different sectors. These impacts include changes in the probability of entry into the export market, the fraction of firms that export and the share of export revenue. To test our hypotheses, we carry out both quantitative analysis and empirical analysis by using Chinese firm-level data. The results are consistent with our theoretical predictions.     

Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country

We compare goods versus services liberalization in terms of welfare, outputs, and factor prices in Tunisia using a CGE model with multiple products, services and trading partners. Restraints on services trade involve both cross-border supply (tariff-equivalent price wedges) and on foreign ownership (monopoly-rent distortions and inefficiency costs). Goods-trade liberalization yields a modest gain in aggregate welfare. Reducing service barriers generate relatively large welfare gains and low adjustment costs. Services liberalization increases economic activity in all sectors and raise the real returns to both capital and labor. The results point to the potential importance of deregulating services provision for economic development.     

国际贸易对城镇就业的影响研究

国际贸易对我国城镇就业的影响表现在三个方面,即出口鼓励就业、消费品进口阻碍就业而资本品进口鼓励就业以及贸易将提高出口部门的就业比重而减少进口部门的就业比重.     

基于竞争力视角下的中国服务贸易发展研究

中国加入服务贸易自由化已是不可逆转的潮流,但由于高级服务要素相对贫乏、技术水平比较落后等原因,中国服务贸易的竞争优势比较微弱。从中长期而言,应审时度势,通过优化中国服务贸易的结构,大力发展国内服务业,建立和完善服务贸易管理体制等措施,进一步提高中国服务贸易的国际竞争力,从贸易大国走向贸易强国。     

Exploring policy options in joint intertemporal-spatial trade models using an incomplete markets approach

In this paper we discuss the desirability of service trade liberlization in the presence of incompleteness of markets where there is both inter-spatial and intertemporal trade between countries. We use numerical simulation methods for insights and relate our discussion to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in the WTO. We interpret the absence of intertemporal trade as an absence of intermediation services provided by both domestic and foreign service providers. For simplicity, we consider extreme cases where intertemporal intermediation services can only be provided by domestic providers, so that when intertemporal trade in services is not allowed, markets are not complete. To our knowledge, this type of models is not used in the trade literature as general comparative statics results are unavailable. We first consider the liberalization of trade in financial services in an inter-spatial and intertemporal model of two countries, and we show how services liberalization can be welfare worsening in the presence of a tariff on spatial trade in goods. We show that this can hold in an artificial world with no domestic financial services provider. We compare financial service trade autarky in which there is no intermediation to financial service trade liberalization which involves costless intertemporal intermediation provided by foreign service providers. We also consider a more complex (and realistic) world where costly intermediation services can be provided by both domestic and foreign providers. This paper draws in part on material of an earlier paper, “Financial Services Trade Liberalization in A Joint Spatial Intertemporal Multi-Country Model” by Huang et al. (2004). We acknowledge the financial support from The Centre for Intentional Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada and from National Social Science Foundation of China (SSFC Grant 07AJL002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant 70825003) and “Humanities and Social Science” Major Project, Chinese Ministry of Education (Grant Number 07JJD790145).     

The Impact of Liberalizing Trade in Services on Trade in Goods: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper we use a large dataset to explore whether the liberalization of trade in services is beneficial for the international trade in goods. We find empirical evidence supporting this notion. We investigate which types of trade in services are more important for the international trade in goods and find that trade in transportation and communication services generate the largest impacts on trade in goods. We also investigate which types of trade in goods are likely to benefit from the liberalization of trade in services and find that, under the 2‐digit ISTC classification, all the categories are likely to exhibit a positive impact.     

服务贸易壁垒对制造业GVC升级的影响研究：基于跨国面板数据的实证分析

文章基于服务贸易壁垒与制造业服务化的矛盾分析了遭受服务贸易壁垒对制造业global value chains(GVC)升级的影响,并利用2000—2014年的跨国面板数据进行实证检验,得出如下结论:第一,遭受服务贸易壁垒会阻碍制造业GVC升级,降低制造业参与GVC分工的程度,缩短制造业在全球价值链中的生产长度,且遭受服务贸易壁垒会阻碍制造业在GVC中地位的提升,增加制造业出口产品中国内增加值的使用,减少国外增加值的使用;第二,遭受服务贸易壁垒对发展中国家影响大于发达国家,对中高技术行业的影响大于中低计划行业.分要素密集度行业来看,遭受服务贸易壁垒对前向参与GVC生产活动的影响程度大小顺序为:技术密集型行业>资本密集型行业>劳动密集型行业,对后向参与GVC生产活动的影响程度大小顺序为:资本密集型行业>技术密集型行业>劳动密集型行业.     

中国服务贸易与货物贸易因果关系分析——基于误差修正模型的中美对比分析

运用时间序列分析和因果关系分析,对比分析中美两国各自货物贸易和服务贸易之间的延迟引导关系。协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验结果明确了中国实现服务贸易与货物贸易可持续发展的内生性难题:中国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期货物出口的增长,与美国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期服务出口的增长这一内在动力差别较大。