CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flexibility in internationalization: is it valuable during an economic crisis?

This study investigates the value of the strategic flexibility provided by firms' international investments during an economic crisis, defined here as an unanticipated significant downturn in the economy. To avoid below‐par performance, firms need to adapt quickly to this significant change in their environment, making real options very valuable to them. Although firms' international investments can potentially provide such flexibility, this issue has not been empirically examined in a context of such dramatic negative change. We consider two types of international investments by firms in this regard, foreign direct investments and export‐related international investments, developing two measures that directly assess the flexibility derived from each that are new to the literature. Based on these measures, we find evidence that both types of international investments provided valuable flexibility for Korean firms during the economic crisis conditions. This study contributes to the literature by showing that firms with real options investments in place have a greater ability to flexibly adapt their overall operations in line with unforeseen negative environmental change, in contrast to firms without such investments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic NPV: Real Options and Strategic Games under Different Information Structures

Research summary : Among the most difficult firm strategic choices is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of uncertainty. To operationalize strategic management theory under demand, technological and competitive uncertainty, we develop a Strategic Net Present Value (NPV) framework that integrates real options and game theory to quantify value components and interactions at the interface between NPV, real options, and strategic games. Our approach results in new propositions clarifying the way learning‐experience conditions, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between wait‐and‐see flexibility and strategic commitment. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of the conditions where NPV, real options, or strategic thinking are more relevant. Managerial summary : This study develops and elucidates implementation of a new valuation construct, “Strategic Net Present Value (NPV),” that integrates real options and game theory to more accurately portray strategic decisions underlying management theory. Among the most difficult firm strategic choices in capital intensive industries, such as energy, mining, chip manufacturing, and infrastructure development, is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of demand, technological, and competitive uncertainties. The study provides new insights on the way various conditions, such as learning‐experience effects, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information, interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between commitment and wait‐and‐see flexibility. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of when NPV, real options, or strategic thinking matter more critically for decision making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业地产投资的实物期权特性及应用框架研究

商业地产开发投资中存在投资的不可逆性、外部环境的不确定性和决策的灵活性,因而具有实物期权特性。从确定要解决的问题、分析不确定性的来源、鉴别关键的不确定性因素、识别实物期权类型、构建期权定价模型、计算项目价值、检查计算结果和重新设计8个方面,构建了商业地产投资决策的实物期权分析框架。     

DIY:企业组织分析的另一个视角

本文从用户DIY的角度出发 ,认为产品的模块性是这个消费模式得以实现的条件 ;产品模块性促成了企业组织的模块性。企业组织的模块性能够很好地适应用户的DIY需求 ,因而能够很好地解决市场的不确定性问题。企业组织模块性对于不确定性的作用可以刻画为一种实期权 ,因而组织模块化将产生期权价值     

Venture capitalists' decision to withdraw: The role of portfolio configuration from a real options lens

When does a venture capital firm withdraw from an investment project prior to its completion? This study offers a real options view on this decision by examining the contingent effects of portfolio configuration. We explore how project withdrawal can be influenced by two distinct dimensions of portfolio configuration, portfolio focus in a strategic domain and portfolio diversity across multiple domains. The empirical analysis shows that while portfolio focus weakens the negative effect of industry‐level uncertainty on a venture capitalist's propensity to withdraw from a project, portfolio diversity strengthens the effect of uncertainty. This study informs current research on the boundary of real options theory and sheds light on the behavior of venture capitalists in financing entrepreneurship. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real options reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms

Real options reasoning (ROR) is a conceptual approach to strategic investment that takes into account the value of preserving the right to make future choices under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore firms' motivations to invest in a new option. We find, based on an analysis of a large sample of patents by firms active in the pharmaceutical industry, that their investments in R&D are consistent with the logic of ROR. We identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms' propensity to invest in new R&D options and which could usefully be incorporated in a strategic theory of investment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic flexibility, rigidity and barriers to the development of absorptive capacity in business markets: Themes and research perspectives

The marketing and strategy literature hail strategic flexibility as a key success factor in creating continuously customer value and generating competitive advantage. However, empirical evidence indicates that rigidity in market strategies and actions is more the rule than the exception in organizations. The focus of this special issue is on better understanding rigidity and flexibility in business markets. This lead article seeks to elaborate on why companies face rigidity and how they can create flexibility. To do this, we relate rigidity in organizations to the concepts of dominant logic, industry recipe and persistence. The case illustrations highlight barriers to the development of absorptive capacity in business organizations. Identifying such barriers is a first step in better understanding how companies can remain agile and flexible in demanding and fast changing markets. The paper then proceeds with a brief introduction to the other contributions of this special issue and concludes with a research agenda.     

Caught in the crossfire: Dimensions of vulnerability and foreign multinationals' exit from war‐afflicted countries

Research summary : When war occurs in a country, some foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) stay on, while others flee. We argue that MNE responses to external threats depend on the firm's vulnerability, which we decompose into exposure (proximity to threat), at‐risk resources (potential for loss), and resilience (capacity for coping). We test the independent and interactive effects of these dimensions using a geo‐referenced sample of 1,162 MNE subsidiaries in 20 war‐afflicted countries between 1987 and 2006. We find that highly valuable resources can become liabilities when exposed to harm, and the best way to cope with external threats may be to exit. Our findings extend the resource‐based view and real options theory by demonstrating the bounded value of resources and options in the face of environmental contingencies. Managerial summary : A recent survey of multinational enterprise (MNE) executives revealed that 30 percent of the respondents believed that their firms were exposed to collateral damage from war, with more than 90 percent expecting risks to rise. Yet, 25 percent of the executives indicated that their firms had no continuity plan. Our study of MNEs in war‐afflicted countries highlights the costs of not having a response strategy in place. We find that, in war zones, otherwise highly valuable locations and resources can become sources of vulnerability that prompt early withdrawal from a host country. Our work further highlights the value of real options thinking—where structural solutions such as building redundancy into a portfolio of options may exist in advance of problems—for navigating hostile environments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于中国市场的房地产期权研究

面对日渐繁荣的中国房地产市场,房价涨幅过快、过高已经是一个不容回避的问题。房地产期权作为一种创新型投资理财工具,在欧美和亚洲金融衍生品市场几乎完全空白,能够有效对冲房价过快上涨的风险,改变中国购房者传统购房观念,间接缓解房地产价格过快上涨的压力。本文基于中国市场对以房地产价格为标的物的期权产品进行研究,以西安市房地产市场为例进行模拟分析,结果表明,房地产期权可以满足普通购房者对冲房价过快上涨的避险需求,转变传统购房观念,缓解短期购房压力,降低房地产市场的整体风险,在一定程度上促进房地产市场平稳有序的发展,具有十分显著的现实应用价值。     

Reversing course: Competing technologies,mistakes, and renewal in flat panel displays

Research summary: The study explores renewal in a novel but understudied context—an era of ferment with competing technological options. It focuses on IBM's transition from market leadership in a failed path (plasma) to leadership in the emerging dominant technology (LCD) in the 1980s. Interviews and internal documents offer two primary factors explaining renewal at IBM. First, IBM Research had a hybrid structure that captured the benefits of both centralized and decentralized R&D. Second, middle managers shaped senior management cognitive frames to focus on business‐related issues instead of specific technical issues, thus bypassing biases often resulting from failure. The study offers an integrated framework on what facilitates flexibility at the technology, organization, and decision‐making levels. This flexibility helps firms survive a turbulent era of ferment. Managerial summary: Firms facing technological uncertainty may need to recover from unlucky bets. But responding to failure is politically and organizationally difficult. This study explores how IBM recovered from its failed bet on plasma displays to lead the LCD display market. This study identifies six key factors, highlighting two. First, IBM's researchers received centralized funding, but could also receive funding directly from division managers. This structure helped preserve options and variety. Second, internal LCD champions focused on the business case for displays and not technology. This fostered technology agnosticism and helped avoid managerial biases from failure. For managers looking to use real options to maintain flexibility in an uncertain environment, this study offers clear suggestions related to design and decision making that can foster flexibility. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining Proactive Strategic Decision‐Making Flexibility in New Product Development

While strategic flexibility is widely accepted as a prerequisite for a firm's success, its application in strategic decision making to a firm's new product development (NPD) activities is limited to only a few studies. Furthermore, many organizations still have difficulties creating proactive strategic flexibility in their decision‐making processes. Past research studies have largely ignored the relationship between strategic decision‐making flexibility and firms' resources and/or capabilities and success in the context of NPD. This study advances strategic flexibility by adopting the proactive approach of NPD decision‐making flexibility and by examining its role in translating organizational resources and capabilities into NPD success. This study draws upon the resources, capabilities (i.e., flexibility), and performance framework to show how proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility plays a crucial role in developing new products that can create new opportunities and comply with market needs. Therefore, this research aims to (1) develop an operational definition of strategic decision‐making flexibility and (2) propose a framework to understand the drivers and the subsequent new product performance outcomes of strategic decision‐making flexibility. This study adopts the proactive perspective of strategic decision‐making flexibility and defines it as a capability that enables firms to develop NPD strategies to respond to future changes in the environment. The analysis, based on data collected from 103 European firms, shows that that the effects of long‐term orientation, strategic planning, internal commitment, and innovative climate on proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility are significant. The findings indicate specifically the roles of both champions and gatekeepers, who infuse a firm's knowledge with a clear understanding of its resources, constraints, and market needs, thereby enhancing decision makers' motivation to behave proactively to precipitate transformation. The results also reveal a positive association between proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility and NPD performance outcomes. As such, strategic flexibility provides firms with an ability to adapt to changing environments and to create new market opportunities, product, and technological arenas, and to deliver successful new products. When firms open new market, technological, and product arenas, they can easily foresee their new demands and changes and successfully deliver new products, meeting customer needs/demands, and offering benefits such as quality, cost, and timeliness. This study therefore provides a valuable reference point for future research in strategic decision‐making flexibility in NPD.     

Option value and entry timing

When facing uncertainty, firms entering new markets can make initial foothold investments rather than undertake large sunk investments. Such investments are real call option purchases. They offer management flexibility, but also raise questions about whether and when to increase commitments to new markets. We present an entry timing decision criterion and discuss its application to a variety of market entry situations. Optimal timing for exercising real options depends on current dividends, possibilities for preemption, and whether the option is simple or compound, proprietary or shared. Our analysis reveals critical assumptions and new theoretical insights regarding market entry timing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐additivity in portfolios of exploration activities: a real options‐based analysis of equity alliances in biotechnology

Firms invest in exploration‐oriented activities to seek competitive advantage and in response to changing environments. Real options formulations represent an emerging strand of thinking on such investments. In this paper we begin with the observation that firms often simultaneously invest in multiple exploration projects. We identify two sources of potential interactions among these real options investments. First, we investigate the effects of correlations between the outcomes in different options. Second, we analyze the effects of investments that are fungible across project options. We show that under different conditions multiple options can be sub‐additive (due to redundancies in outcomes) or super‐additive (due to fungible inputs). We test the implications of our model with data from the biotech industry and find supporting evidence. Our model and results have some interesting implications for the exploration literature and real options lens. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real options in divestment alternatives

This paper examines the implications of real options theory for both the decision to divest a business unit and the mode of divestment. It is shown that the decision to divest a business unit and the decision to engage in staged modes of divestment are both sensitive to uncertainty, consistent with a real options logic. However, in the face of uncertainty, the results suggest that staged forms of governance create real options that are of lesser value as compared to simply not divesting a business unit and also as compared to completely divesting a business unit. Thus, this study shows that firms have real options of varied value to choose from in the context of divestments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk

Incorporating managerial flexibility in an innovative R&D project is important, because managers face greater uncertainty in today's competitive and dynamic changing environment. It is essential to bring managerial flexibility into R&D project planning to decrease technical and market risks, while increasing potential market value. The objective of this paper is to develop a flexibility planning methodology based on real option analysis to improve managerial flexibility for R&D projects. The proposed methodology identifies potential risks that may occur during every R&D stage. It also recognizes a cascading option structure to resolve the identified risks, and evaluates and selects adequate options that maximize the potential value of the project. Instead of using a traditional option pricing method, a dynamic programming model that considers multidimensional product performance and market payoff is used to evaluate the R&D project value. Using the proposed methodology, managers can identify future scenarios as a function of their management actions. The proposed flexibility planning methodology can help managers improve managerial flexibility of R&D project and increase the success rate of product launch. A drug development project is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture: a real options approach

This study examines the value created from acquiring and divesting a joint venture. Unlike previous research which focuses on parent firm factors, the study examines value in light of the reason behind the termination of the venture and the characteristics of the target market. Consistent with the real options view, the paper finds that ventures divested to refocus a parent firm's product market portfolio were associated with significant value creation. In contrast, ventures acquired with the objective of growth and expansion in a target market, while not associated with significant value creation, did not destroy value either. Apart from these results, the paper also finds that acquirers and divesters gained lesser value when they terminated ventures in uncertain and concentrated industries. These latter findings highlight an important caveat with regard to termination: joint ventures confer valuable flexibility which is also forgone once they are terminated. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.