Intertemporal volatility and price interactions between Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets

Previous studies have examined causality within and between different spot and futures markets with a motivation to discover market comovements, price leadership effects, and, more recently, volatility spillovers across markets. However, the empirical framework within which this is accomplished tends not to analyze explicitly foreign spillover effects upon a spot–futures relationship, which may significantly alter the equilibrium between these markets. This will then have a direct impact upon the estimation of dynamic risk adjustments that occur from the interaction between these markets. This article develops a quadvariate simultaneous-equation EC-ARCH model with an emphasis on volatility spillovers as a better alternative methodology to evaluate these relationships from a different perspective. This model is applied to examine the interaction between the Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets, which allows for an Australian or Japanese futures trader to analyze the impact of foreign cash and futures markets, as well as the local cash market, on the local futures market in a single coherent framework. This type of analysis is not possible using previous paradigms, because they allow the trader only to examine the impact of local cash and foreign futures markets in separate settings. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 523–540, 1999     

Dual long memory property in returns and volatility: Evidence from the CEE countries' stock markets

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in the eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries' stock market, using the ARFIMA, GPH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH models. The data set consists of daily returns, and long memory tests are carried out both for the returns and volatilities of these series. The results of the ARFIMA and GPH models indicate the existence of long memory in five of eight return series. The results also suggest that long memory dynamics in the returns and volatility might be modeled by using the ARFIMA–FIGARCH and ARFIMA–HYGARCH models. The results of these models indicate strong evidence of long memory both in conditional mean and conditional variance. Moreover, the ARFIMA–FIGARCH model provides the better out-of-sample forecast for the sampled stock markets.     

Exchange rate volatility effects on labour markets

With the transition to the euro, exchange rate volatility between the countries participating in European Monetary Union has been eliminated, reducing uncertainty and transaction costs. The other side of the coin is the loss of the exchange rate as a potential mechanism of adjustment to external shocks. The present article uses the case of Germany to study the implications of EMU for labour markets.     

股票市场波动性研究述评

创业板市场的波动性研究,对于完善我国证券市场机制、危机风险管理有着重要的意义。本文从研究对象、杠杆效应、长记忆性、模型拟合的角度描述股票市场的一些国内研究成果,即GARCH模型的发展和应用。     

Return and price volatility of bonds with different credit risk

This article analyzes the relative price and monthly holding period return volatility of bonds with differing credit risk. The research proceeds by decomposing the causes of price volatility into that due to duration and yield volatility. Lower duration, due to higher coupon rate, and relatively stable yields, due to the behavior of credit risk and risk aversion over the business cycle, may well make lower quality issues such as A and Baa industrials exhibit less volatility than high-quality issues such as Aaa industrials and United States Treasury issues.     

The tail risk of emerging stock markets

We investigate tail risk in emerging stock markets at the country, regional and world levels, by comparing the investable and non-investable segments in terms of the expected shortfall of standardized returns and tail dependence on the world market. Employing the skewed Student-t GJR-GARCH model and the SJC copula, we show that most investable portfolios have lower tail risk but higher tail dependence than non-investable ones; emerging markets are likely more dependent on the world market during large joint losses than large joint gains; and tail dependence of the aggregate and investable markets on the world market varies across countries and regions.     

Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets

This paper examines contagion vulnerability and the international and regional financial linkages of the MENA stock markets. The degree of vulnerability of those markets to global and regional financial crises will have important bearings on the respective economies' growth rate, and on their ability to diversify international and regional portfolios. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions reveal that while the GCC equity markets still offer international investors portfolio diversification potentials, those markets are relatively less vulnerable to global and regional financial crises. Moreover, even though the remaining MENA stock markets of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have matured and are now financially integrated with the world stock markets, they tend to exhibit more vulnerability to regional and international financial crises. Their vulnerability to international financial crises is due, on the one hand, to weak regional integration, and to greater economic and financial integration with the more advanced economies on the other.     

Market volatility and the demand for hedging in stock index futures

This study examines the relation between stock market volatility and the demand for hedging in S&P 500 stock index futures contracts. Open interest is used as a proxy for hedging demand. The analysis employs unique data that identify separately the open interest of large hedgers, large speculators, and smaller traders. Volatility estimates are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, to assess whether traders’ reactions to volatility depend upon its predictability. Results indicate that daily open interest for hedgers increases when unexpected volatility increases. Increases in unexpected volatility may cause hedgers to raise their estimates of future expected volatility, and hence increase their demand for hedging. Open interest of speculators is not related to expected volatility, and is only weakly related to unexpected volatility. The increase in the participation of hedgers in periods of higher volatility is significantly larger than the increase in the participation of speculators. The results suggest that increases in stock market volatility increase the demand for hedging. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 105–125, 2000     

The return to value in Asian stock markets

This paper investigates the returns to value strategies in four Asian stock markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore exhibit value premia while Taiwan shows value discounts. The impact of firm characteristics on value premia differs across the four markets. The robustness tests indicate that the value premia are time-varying. They become greater in the post-crisis period across all four countries, indicating that high volatility during the crisis period did understate the value premia. The value strategy's excess return is sensitive to the sample selection rule and the firm size and liquidity effects. With tighter sample selection criteria, value premia tend to decline, which indicates that both the firm size effect and the liquidity effect are important sources of value premia. Unequal weighting assigned to financial variables in constructing the Average Price Rank (APR) based on the overall performance of single-variable approach does not necessarily improve the results.     

Mid-day volatility spikes in U.S. futures markets

Recent work offers mixed results regarding the nature of intraday volatility patterns in futures markets and, specifically, the existence of spikes in futures return volatility during the middle of the U.S. trading day (Crain & Lee, 1995; Kawaller, Koch, & Peterson, 1994). This note analyzes time and sales data on two markets—Eurodollar futures and deutsche mark futures—to investigate the existence of such spikes, and to examine the nature of changes in intraday volatility patterns over time. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 195–216, 1999