Science and technology indicators,country size and economic development: An international comparison

Conceptual and data problems make the selection of science and technology indicators difficult. It has also proven hard to link measures of scientific and technological activity with economic development. In this paper, statistically significant results are obtained in regressing two “input” indicators: stock of scientists and engineers, and expenditures in research and experimental development, with population size and income per capita. The models adjusted include non-linearities and are structurally different country groupings. Thus the practice of utilizing average coefficients, and of applying their values to both industrialized and developing countries, does not seem justified. The econometrically established pattern tends to corroborate prior knowledge about highly qualified human resource availability and expenditures in R & D, in “outlier” countries performing both above and below the “norm”.     

Out-migration and economic cycles

Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.     

中日两国私营企业主的诞生与成长比较

企业主的诞生与成长对一国经济的发展具有非常重要的意义。比较中国私营企业主与日本企业主，虽然在年龄分布、性别与文化构成等方面两国的私营企业主存在较大的差异，但在创业时必须面对资金来源有限、市场拓展难、人才缺乏等方面的困难上又具有共同性。表明中小企业融资难不是我国独有的问题。     

Why economic growth is slow

This paper presents a general theory of economic progress in the LDCs: that increase in productivity is slow because, even given knowledge of the productive techniques used in the industrialized countries, for techno-economic reasons economic growth can proceed only in stages and requires a high degree of innovational talent, which is scarce in any country. The stages are delineated.It is then suggested that the theory is still more general; that, with consideration of one added factor, it provides a general explanation of variations among countries in the pace of increase in productivity.     

SBA regional loan distribution to minorities

Summary We have shown in this paper a great disparity in the lending activities of a number of Small Business Administration regional offices. There were considerable differences between these regions on their rates of increase and then decline of loans and loan dollars issued over the 1968-1976 period and on their loans and loan dollars per unit population, small businesses, and small business employees. This was found to be the case both for minorities and for the population at large. This, however, is especially disturbing in the context of minority lending activity since SBA lending was the chief vehicle of the federal government’s minority economic development efforts from 1968 to 1976. The economic well-being of a great many minorities with ties to the small business sector was to a large measure affected unequally by the differential SBA lending rates between regions. In fact, insofar as the measures we have selected can be related to “need,” the policy seems to have been counterproductive, having concentrated lending activity precisely in the regions where minority small business in terms of population, employment, and numbers of establishments was strongest and by implication the “need” was least!     

东道国投资便利化建设对中国企业对外直接投资二元边际的影响

在全球多边投资体制缺失和双边投资协定无序发展的背景下,便利化建设能否有效驱动海外投资增长已引发学术界的广泛关注。然而,当前有关东道国投资便利化与母国对外直接投资的研究仅集中于一元规模分析,尚未展开二元边际的结构性讨论。为此,文章基于中国企业对外直接投资追踪数据,详细考察了东道国便利化建设与中国企业对外直接投资二元边际之间的关系。结果表明:第一,东道国便利化建设显著促进了中国对外投资扩展边际的增长,但对集约边际的作用效果并不明显,且克服内生性问题之后,上述研究结论仍然成立。第二,异质性分析表明,投资对经济周期十分敏感,世界经济的复苏和发展有助于中国资本"走出去"。同时,与能源行业相比,便利化建设更有利于推动运输和房地产行业投资扩展边际的提高。另外,东道国发展阶段的差异和中国投资政策导向的差别也将产生异质化作用,非低收入经济体和政策导向国推进便利化建设对投资扩展边际增长的驱动效应更加明显。第三,进一步的渠道分析表明,便捷的营商环境、透明的政策环境与健全的金融服务是提高投资扩展边际的关键所在。文章的研究对于从东道国便利化发展角度理解企业对外直接投资的结构特征具有一定的参考价值,同时揭示了便利化建设将在推动全球新一轮的投资浪潮中扮演更为重要的角色。     

Determinants of return migration intentions: Evidence from Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa

This paper uses a dataset of Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa to examine the determinants of the probability of their returning to their country of origin. It analyses migrants' return migration intentions using a logistic regression that examines 10 demographic and socioeconomic factors. Six factors – reason for migrating, the number of dependants supported in the home country, the level of education, economic activity in the host country, the level of income and the duration of stay in the host country – are found to be statistically significant determinants of the return migration intentions. The main policy implication of these findings is that the chances of attracting back skills are high if political and economic stability can be achieved.     

Business Conditions and Exit Risks Across Countries

The risk of market exit that business firms face is significant and differs widely across countries. This paper explores the links between countries’ business conditions and the exit risk at the country level. We set up a general equilibrium model which allows us to derive sharp predictions concerning how key factors which shape a country’s business and trade environment impact on the exit risk of firms which operate in these environments. The model is able to explain the negative correlation between countries’ average labor productivity and the perceived risks of exit borne out in the facts and its predictions accord with evidence on country differences in business conditions.     

How is suicide different in Japan?

This study investigates suicide rates among OECD countries, with particular effort made to gain insight into how suicide in Japan is different from suicides in other OECD countries. Several findings emerged from fixed-effect panel regressions with country-specific time-trends. First, the impacts of socioeconomic variables vary across different gender–age groups. Second, in general, better economic conditions such as high levels of income and higher economic growth were found to reduce the suicide rate, while income inequality increases the suicide rate. Third, the suicide rate is more sensitive to economic factors captured by real GDP per capita, growth rate of real GDP per capita, and the Gini index than to social factors represented by divorce rate, birth rate, female labor force participation rate, and alcohol consumption. Fourth, female and elderly suicides are more difficult to be accounted for. Finally, in accordance with general beliefs, Japan's suicide problem is very different from those of other OECD countries. The impact of the socioeconomic variables on suicide is greater in Japan than in other OECD countries.     

新疆少数民族地区人口、社会经济和资源环境协调发展综合评价研究——基于非少数民族地区的对比分析

将吐鲁番、阿克苏等7个少数民族人口占全疆少数民族人口80%以上的地区作为有代表性的少数民族地区。根据新疆少数民族地区的实际情况和特点,构建由4个一级指标、21个二级指标构成的人口、社会经济和资源环境评价指标体系,利用SPSS19.0进行因子分析对新疆少数民族和非少数民族地区的人口、社会经济和资源环境综合评价,用以监测新疆少数民族地区发展状态和进程。研究结果表明:与新疆非少数民族地区相比,新疆少数民族地区人口、社会经济等方面的发展程度较差,各系统内部发展很不平衡,新疆少数民族地区城乡、贫富、区域之间的差距较大。最后提出有效控制人口过快增长、减少贫困、走新型工业化道路,缩小区域经济差距,促进新疆少数民族地区人口、社会经济和资源环境协调发展的政策建议。研究中的指标体系的设计体现出新疆区域特色,从与非少数民族地区对比的角度进行分析,为全面评价新疆少数民族地区社会经济发展状况提供了新的思路。     

东道国基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家的实证分析

基础设施建设是经济社会发展的重要支撑,对国家经贸关系进一步发展具有桥梁作用。基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家2011—2019年面板数据,构建拓展引力模型实证分析东道国基础设施质量分别对中国进口与出口的影响。研究发现：东道国基础设施质量会显著促进中国的进口与出口贸易,但对中国进口贸易促进作用强于出口,且东道国GDP增长促进了中国进口与出口贸易增加,其对中国进口贸易促进作用大于出口;而东道国与中国的地理距离对中国进口贸易限制作用大于出口,东道国与中国为邻国、与中国具有共同语言及签订自由贸易协定会推动中国对其进出口贸易增长。在此基础上,提出促进中国与沿线国家进出口贸易的对策建议。     

国际油价波动对我国经济发展影响及对策问题研究

石油对于各国特别是工业化进程中国家的经济和社会发展起着举足轻重的作用,而近年来,国际油价的波动一直是国际经济中的敏感话题。本文分析了我国目前石油消费和进口的基本情况,并研究了国际油价的波动对我国经济发展所产生的重要影响,分别从连续上涨和连续下跌两方面所产生的影响进行研究,最后得出国际油价波动下我国经济发展的策略。     

Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been important in the growth and global integration of developing economies. Both Northeast and Southeast Asia, especially the latter, have been part of this development, with increasing inflows of FDI and greater foreign participation in local economies. However, Indonesia has been an outlier within the region. Inflows of FDI have been lower to Indonesia than to other countries, especially in manufacturing, and they have been lower than could be expected from Indonesia's size, population and other country characteristics. We show that the inflows that have occurred have benefited Indonesia, and use the East Asian experience to identify measures that are likely to increase these flows. A relatively poor business environment, inefficient government institutions, low levels of education and poor infrastructure all seem to be important explanations for the low inflows of FDI to Indonesia.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

东道国人力资本、研发投入与我国OFDI的反向技术溢出

借鉴C-H模型,本文建立中国OFDI反向技术外溢的计量模型,对中国OFDI反向技术外溢的存在性进行了进一步验证,并从东道国角度出发,对影响我国OFDI反向技术外溢的主要因素进行了实证研究。发现我国OFDI具有显著的反向技术外溢,同时这种反向技术外溢受东道国研发投入、人力资本的显著的正向影响。东道国外资政策对我国反向技术外溢存在正向影响,但影响不显著。我国在选择OFDI东道国时,应选择研发投入多、人力资本充裕的国家,而在考虑东道国经济政策时要综合考虑其制度因素,不能仅以外资政策论。     

Rural minority business development

This study is a first attempt to undertake formal research and policy analysis of a heretofore neglected topic, rural minority business development. Data show that only about one-sixth of all minority-owned firms are located in rural (nonmetro) areas with some groups recording even lower percentages. For example, only 11 percent of Hispanic firms were found in rural areas in 1987. However, proportions of nonmetro Hispanic firms reach 20 to 50 percent in some southwestern states and proportions of nonmetro black enterprises reach 30 to 70 percent in some southeastern states. Review of the research literature discloses that rural minority businesses experience critical problems associated with four kinds of capital needed to support any successful enterprise: physical, financial, social and human. Examples are given of programs devoted to rural enterprise development which address problems related to the four forms of capital. Insights gleaned from the examples and additional observations by policy analysts are used to suggest policy directions for expanding rural minority business.     

Intra-regional trade and business cycles in Southeast Asia

Conclusion In this note we considered the relationship between trade integration and the cross-country correlation of business cycle activity in southeast Asia. We found a positive and significant relationship between the degree of bilateral trade intensity and the cross-country bilateral correlation of business activity over the period 1986–1996, a period when trade integration was proceeding rapidly. Thus, the Frankel and Rose (1997) finding that more trade integration between industrialized countries tends to result in more highly synchronized business cycles, appears to be robust to a sample of countries which have diverse income levels and economic structures and are likely to have less bilateral intraindustry trade.     

Accessibility to government resources for minority business development: A practicum

Summary This article highlights the problem of inaccessibility to available government resources designed to promote the development of minority-owned business enterprises. The problem involves an ironical situation in which an unintentionally, but artificially created, information scarcity exists which hinders minority-owned business development. Existing and prospective minority entrepreneurs are essentially unaware of the untapped resources available to them at the regional and neighborhood levels. Representatives of corporate firms are equally ignorant of available government resources that can suggest to them proper ways to “get involved” in minority business development. These individuals-the minority entrepreneur and the corporate representative-who are so in need of each other, can identify ways in which to link up. In this paper, we suggest that a scheme should be available through OMBE-supported organizations by which they are able to identify existing resources so that their ideas, intentions, and programs can be shaped into viable and profitable minority business enterprises.     

Free trade and income redistribution in some developing and newly industrialized countries

A competitive general equilibrium model of production is specified and the long-run comparative static elasticities of changing prices on factor prices are examined in eight developing and newly industrialized countries. Unskilled labor in these developing countries stands to gain from a program of global free trade characterized by increased manufacturing exports and falling prices of imported business services, while capital owners and skilled labor lose. Results are contrasted with developed countries, the United States in particular, where unskilled labor will lose while capital and skilled labor enjoy gains with global free trade.     

Integrating tourism to rural development and planning in the developing world

In the past few decades, rural areas have experienced major socioeconomic changes. Due to modernisation and deepening globalisation, the economic and employment potential of many traditional livelihoods has decreased. Currently tourism is increasingly seen as a relevant tool for addressing rural problems in developing countries and tourism is actively used for economic diversification and opening up new ways to generate income and employment. However, many development models, such as integrated rural tourism (IRT) with emphasis on co-planning, learning and participation, originate from the Global North. This calls for careful considerations when such models are applied to the Global South's rural contexts. This research note discusses some of the key challenges of rural tourism development, especially related to the integration of the tourism industry and rural communities in developing countries, and overviews the applicability and conditions of the IRT framework as a potential approach for rural tourism development in the developing world.