基于社会网络视角的中国产业结构变迁实证研究

根据国家统计局公布的中国7个年份的投入产出表，采用社会网络分析法，绘制了7个年份的产业结构网络拓扑图，从网络密度、中心势、中心度、凝聚子群等角度分析了2002年以来中国产业结构网络的特征和变化，并对中国产业结构变迁进行了实证研究。通过结果分析可知，中国的产业结构表现出多样化的特点，产业结构具有阶段性变化的特点，产业部门之间的联系呈波动性变化，各产业部门在产业结构中的地位是不平等的，但是产业部门之间的地位差距趋于减小，中国现在处于工业化的后期，已经开始步入后工业化时代，其中，第二产业的重要性下降，第三产业开始崛起，第三产业的重要性越来越突出，其影响力也逐渐增大，产业凝聚子群的频繁变动将会持续，甚至更加剧烈的情况会出现。     

Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry and its Impacts on the Neighbouring Countries

This paper investigates the rapid growth of China's share in the international commodity market and the structural changes of China's commodity exports. It demonstrates a significant improvement of international competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. The panel data analysis, based on a Solow–Swan type growth model on China's 37 manufacturing industries from 1991 to 2002, reveals that the main sources of the strengthened competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector have been mainly from Total Factor Productivity (TFP), while labour productivity has been increasing and capital productivity has been falling. A preliminary empirical analysis on the impacts of China's increasing competitiveness finds that there are negative correlations between China and most of its neighbouring countries, both newly industrialised economies and other Southeast Asian developing economies. However, there is no evidence of negative impacts of China's increasing competitiveness on developed countries such as the United States and Japan.     

Does Property Rights Reform Improve the Efficiency of China＇s State-owned Banks？

China ＂s state-owned banks have undergone radical changes over the past two decades, including partial privatization and listing in both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This paper evaluates the effects of these changes by analyzing the efficiency of Chinese banks over the period 1998-2012 using two frontier techniques and comparative analysis. The findings suggest that the performance and technical efficiency of the Big Four banks improved considerably after property rights reform, but this improvement is not sufficient to keep the banks at the production frontier. Tobit regressions confirm that static ownership effects are negative but that the property rights reform has had significant and positive effects on the technical efficiency of state-owned commercial banks. GDP growth and the financial crisis have had positive effects on the efficiency of Chinese banks, which is more significant for joint stock commercial banks than state-owned commercial banks. The results indicate the value of ownership reforms of state-owned asset management companies and insurance companies and the establishment of a countercyclical capital buffer.     

Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its economic growth. By using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed‐effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that both OFDI from provincial firms and OFDI from state‐owned enterprises have a positive impact on China's provincial economic growth. The positive impact of OFDI on provincial economic growth may be the result of reverse knowledge spillovers from OFDI to the home provincial economy through demonstration and imitation, labor movement, and backward and forward industrial linkages, thus increasing the productivity and the efficiency of home firms and promoting the growth of the home economy.     

FDI对我国电子工业生产率的行业内溢出效应研究——以1996—2001年43个细分行业为例

本文考察了外资对中国电子工业劳动生产率的影响。利用1996—2001年期间电子行业的9大部门和43个细分行业的面板数据,并按照无形资产比率、出口比率和国有资本比率对43个细分行业进行了分组检验,我们发现,1996—2001年期间中国电子工业的劳动生产率呈现明显的外商直接投资的溢出效应,并且在不同的行业呈现较大的波动。在无形资产比率高、出口比率高、国有资本比率高的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用显著,而在国有资本比率低、技术含量低的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用不显著。国有企业在促进劳动生产率提高方面具有积极作用,说明国营企业引进外资是一种长期有效的学习跨国公司经验的途径。而且,跨国公司通常被高生产率的电子行业所吸引,在这些行业溢出效应明显存在,但对于一些外资比率低的电子行业,这种正溢出效应不显著。

Abstract：

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI）on the labor productivity of China’s electronics industry. Using panel data of 9 major sectors and 43 sub-sectorsof the electronics industry during the period 1996—2001,and doing group test according to the ratio of intangible assets,the export ratio and the state-owned capital ratio of the 43 sub-sectors,we find that during 1996—2001,labor productivity of the Chinese electronics industry showed significant spillover effects of FDI and large fluctuations in different industries. In industries that have high intangible assets ratio,high export ratio and high state-owned capital ratio,FDI played a more significant role in promoting labor productivity than in industries that have low state—owned capital ratio and low technology contents. State-owned enterprises has a positive effect in promoting labor productivity,indicating that introducing foreign investment is an effective long term route to learn transnational corporations’ experience for state-owned enterprises. Moreover,transnational corporations are always attracted to higher productivity sub-sectors,implying significant spillover effects in these industries,while in sub-sectors with low rate of foreign invest-ment,the spillover effect is not significant.     

外商直接投资对零售业的溢出效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

运用2006—2018年省际面板数据分析对外直接投资(FDI)对中国零售业的溢出效应.结果显示,FDI对中国内资零售业的溢出效应和挤出效应并存:FDI的参与度会对中国内资零售业的技术进步产生负面影响,不利于FDI集聚性行业内溢出效应的产生;而外资零售企业的劳动生产率有利于中国内资企业的技术溢出,表现为FDI效率性行业内溢出效应.此外,企业规模在中部地区的影响更显著,资本密集度对中国内资零售业的技术进步具有显著的正向影响.     

The Role of Agriculture on the Recent Brazilian Economic Growth: How Agriculture Competes for Resources

Drawing upon the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, and other time series data, we construct a multi‐sector Ramsey model that shows the transition growth of the Brazilian agricultural sector and its effects on growth of the industrial and service sector of the economy, with particular emphasis given to the years 1994–2010. Our results capture the importance of the agriculture's capital intensity and the sector's factor productivity on the sector's growth, the substitution of capital for labor in agriculture, and the sustaining of agriculture's share in Brazilian GDP. These features are rather unique among emerging economies, most of which have experienced a transition out of agriculture and growth in nonfarm production relative to agriculture.     

Output and productivity comparisons of the Singapore and Hong Kong wholesale and retail trade sectors, 2001–2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value‐added and labour productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's wholesale and retail sectors for the period 2001–08. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statement of the Singapore Government that its services sector, especially the retail sector, lagged behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's wholesale and retail sector performance in terms of labour productivity has been below Hong Kong's level, largely due to the poor performance of its retail sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity analysis of these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that have worked in Hong Kong may not work in Singapore because its population is more diverse, which poses a challenge to policymakers in raising its productivity level.     

The development strategy for china's travel service industry after china's WTO entry: Present status and future prospects

China's tourism market is growing in importance since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is likely that China's opening to the world market will lead to the further development of its travel service industry. Even though China will be confronted by some difficulties, its WTO commitment may have positive impacts on the travel service industry such as the development of technologies, introduction of advanced management strategies, improved industrial structure, and increased competition in the sector. This paper aims to explain the WTO‐related factors in China's travel service industry, analyzing and evaluating the sector's development strategy.     

湖北省国有经济布局与结构调整策略研究

文章通过对国有经济地位、行业分布、国有经济控制力、空间分布和国企效率等多个指标的综合对比分析,简要归纳出湖北省国有经济布局与结构中存在以下五个问题:经济实力亟须提升,产业结构需要调整;私有经济相对不足;产业布局和空间布局不尽合理;对国有经济的控制弹性不足;国企效率需要提高,国企管理中可能存在资产导向等。文章在综合思考中国经济发展战略和湖北省内外经济发展形势的基础上,基于客观现实,对湖北省国有经济布局与结构调整问题提出了一些基本思路。     

Productivity Gains from Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from the Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Using the Cobb–Douglas production function and vertical specialization share, the present paper measures the productivity spillover effects of offshore outsourcing in the Chinese manufacturing industry. We examine different production factors and the degree of openness by dividing the Chinese manufacturing industry into five major categories: capital‐intensive business, technological‐intensive business, labor‐intensive business, open business and non‐open business. The results show that offshore outsourcing is positively associated with productivity in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole, but less so in labor‐intensive industries and more in capital‐intensive industries. Moreover, the positive impact of outsourcing on productivity is slightly higher in open industries than in non‐open industries. These results shed light on the differential spillover effects of offshore outsourcing on productivity. Our findings suggest that outsourcing structure is important to China's long‐run competitive advantage. China's policy‐makers should encourage further offshore capital‐intensive and technology‐intensive activities and focus more on outward‐oriented offshore businesses.     

Promoting Private Entrepreneurship for Deepening Market Reform in China: A Resource Allocation Perspective

After more than three decades of rapid growth, China's economy is going through an important turning point, where structural imbalances in both supply and demand sides must be addressed for a more moderate and sustainable growth path. By focusing on the structural changes to its ownership, a central element in China's economic transformation under market reform, the present paper highlights the importance of private entrepreneurship in deepening market reform and, thereby, in driving economic growth in a more efficient and sustainable way. Based on a perspective of resource allocation and a conceptual framework of entrepreneurship, the paper elaborates on the evolution of the private sector and its performance in the context of ownership reform, making comparisons with the performance of the state sector. The analysis suggests that there is further room for more productive use of economic resources, especially capital, land and natural resources, by increasing the participation of private entrepreneurs in industries with high entry barriers in favor of state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, more competitive and equal access to productive resources through reform is needed to promote more productive entrepreneurship and to reduce rent‐seeking activities.     

Differences in returns to FDI between China's coast and interior: One country,two economies?

In principle, returns to factors of production within single economic systems should exhibit relatively uniform returns. Notwithstanding the fact that over the past 30 years China's economy has increasingly liberalized both internally and externally, it is widely understood that wages received by industrial workers in the coast and interior have widely diverged. However, less is known about how, between China's coast and interior, relative returns to domestic capital and foreign investment have fared, although we do know that the surge of foreign direct investment in China in recent decades has been overwhelmingly concentrated in the coastal region. This paper investigates comparative factor returns within China's industrial sector as measured by the marginal productivities of labor, domestic capital, and foreign capital. Using balanced and unbalanced samples of enterprise data during 1998–2004, we find significant differences between the returns to each of these factors. This paper explores the differences in estimates of factor returns that arise from the use of balanced versus unbalanced samples and least squares versus fixed effects estimators. We conclude that while returns to labor and domestic capital are higher in China's coastal economy, returns to foreign-owned capital are higher in the interior region. Indeed, the differences are indicative of those found in the literature that estimates cross-country comparisons between OECD and developing economies, suggesting that China's economy exhibits some of the differences found between the world's more and less developed economies.     

China＇s Pattern of Growth： Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

I. Introduction China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 9.4 percent per annum since1978. As a result of this impressive growth, millions of people were lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms implemented over the last 25 years have certainly been instrumental in the remarkable growth performance, leading to higher productivity growth than in the pre- reform period. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed that China’s growth during this period has been resource intensive, drawing…     

Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Vietnam's Economic Transition*

This paper compares the economic performance of foreign multinational corporations (MNC) and local firms in Vietnam, distinguishing between two distinct types of local firms: state‐owned enterprises (SOE) and non‐SOE. Between the mid‐1990s and 2000, foreign MNC in Vietnam's economy grew very rapidly, but their growth has been much slower thereafter. Consistent with the theoretical suggestion that MNC possess relatively large amounts of firm‐specific assets related to production technology, marketing networks and management know‐how, these comparisons suggest that foreign MNC were generally larger and had higher labor productivity, capital intensity, wage levels, investment propensities and trade propensities than non‐MNC. On the other hand, foreign MNC tended to have relatively low capital productivity and wage shares of value added, while results regarding profitability were mixed. In general, these differentials tended to be relatively small between foreign MNC and SOE, and SOE tended to be larger than foreign MNC in terms of employment. Correspondingly, comparisons of foreign MNC with non‐MNC generally revealed more consistent differences, largely because the local private sector is still very underdeveloped in Vietnam.     

强化北京科技领军企业引领未来产业发展的战略思考

科技领军企业是引领未来产业发展的主力军。利用文献梳理法、归纳总结法、实地调研法,在剖析未来产业与科技领军企业相关关系的基础上,分析北京科技领军企业发展现状及创新引领未来产业发展面临的问题,提出强化北京科技领军企业引领未来产业发展的战略建议。     

The Inequality of Regional Economic Development in China between 1991 and 2001

This paper measures the unequal development of the regional economies in China and investigates the primary factors leading to the inequality. The official data on China's regional GDP and the regional GDP of three industrial sectors from 1991–2001, as reported in the China Statistical Yearbook and A Statistical Survey of China, are adopted to calculate and decompose the Gini coefficient for each year. The primary finding is that the levels of inequality in China's regional economies clearly showed a slight upward trend after 1991. The inequality of the overall GDP is primarily attributed to the between-group effect rather than to the within-group effect. It is also found that the regional inequality of the secondary industry sector's development accounted for half of the overall inequality. Thus, this study suggests that it is crucial for China to formulate and adhere to policies that will help it to develop the economy more equally among all areas and to develop the secondary industry sector among all regions/provinces in order to overcome the important issue of the inequality in regional economic development.     

中国石化行业产业安全测度研究

石油化工行业在国民经济的发展中有重要作用,是我国的支柱产业之一,尤其是在全球竞争力加剧的新时期,作为一国的能源产业,其发展是否稳健关乎着整个国民经济的健康运行。通过搜集2008—2017年相关石化部门生产数据从产业发展环境、产业国际竞争力、产业对外依存度、产业控制力和产业发展能力五方面构建指标体系,运用主成分分析的方法测算我国石化行业的产业安全度系数值,并分析测算结果,提出相关建议。     

Beyond privatization: Institutional innovation and growth in China's large state-owned enterprises

This article demonstrates that China's large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not stagnant fossils waiting to die. Under economic reform policies this sector has undergone large change due to enhanced enterprise autonomy, the impact of market forces, rapid growth of domestic demand for upstream products, strategic integration with the world economy and the state's policy to promote large businesses. China's large SOEs are developing new institutional forms that do not neatly fit into existing patterns. China is experimentally changing its institutions through a combination of central policy, local initiative and interaction with international investment. This presents a challenge to the “transitional orthodoxy” and to ideas concerning property rights in development economics. There is not a universal model of property rights and government action that works best in all circumstances. China's experience with the reform of large SOEs shows the diverse possibilities for effective industrial institutions.     

中国上市公司跨行业并购与产业重组:基于社会网络分析的研究

以2014—2017年我国上市公司2 700起跨行业并购交易为样本,运用社会网络分析方法,研究了我国现阶段跨行业并购特征及其对产业重组的影响。首先,基于网络密度和中心势分析发现,跨行业并购存在明显的行业差异。其次,基于点的度数中心度分析,发现制造业、房地产业和物流行业表现出明显的跨行业投资倾向。最后,基于中心度和接近中心度分析,发现制造业、零售业和金融业表现出显著的资源控制能力。该研究结果一方面证实了"制造业逃离"等假说,另一方面,对于中国现阶段的产业结构调整和企业并购战略具有实践启示。