MORE THAN A FEELING: CONFIDENCE,UNCERTAINTY, AND MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Economists, observers, and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper, we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we give an overview of the recent literature on the nexus between sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly data for 27 countries, 1985–2016. Third, we identify some new stylized facts based on international evidence. While different measures are surprisingly lowly correlated on average in each country, they are typically highly positively correlated across countries, suggesting the existence of a global factor or sizeable international spillovers of sentiment. Consumer confidence has the closest co-movement with economic and financial variables, and most of the correlations are contemporaneous or forward-looking, consistent with the view that economic sentiment is indeed a driver of activity.     

Transmission lags and optimal monetary policy

The credibility problems of monetary policy are enlarged by transmission lags whenever the welfare criterion consists of arguments with differing transmission lags. If, as usually argued, prices react to monetary policy with a longer lag than output, the discretionary bias is substantially increased under a consumer welfare maximizing policy criterion (flexible inflation targeting) in the prototype New Keynesian model. Money growth targeting can significantly reduce the discretionary bias, but is not robust to other specifications of welfare with higher valuation of output stability.     

Economic policy uncertainty,investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model

This paper applies the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model to explore the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability in China in different periods and at different time points. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has an obvious negative impact on investor sentiment before 2012 and financial stability in the short term, and the influence of economic policy uncertainty on investor sentiment is greater than that of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability. These influences were more significant during the period of the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, investor sentiment had a positive and gradually increasing effect on financial stability, while after 2010, the positive impact gradually weakened. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is negatively affected by financial stability, and the effect of financial stability on investor sentiment is positive. In terms of mediating effects, economic policy uncertainty has an indirect impact on financial stability through investor sentiment and vice versa. This paper provides a new solution to economic problems explored in behavioral finance research. Additionally, Chinese government agencies can achieve the goal of preventing financial crises and maintaining financial stability by monitoring investor sentiment and implementing targeted economic policies.

     

Did Mises Err? Was He a Utilitarian?

A bstract .   Walter Block's critique of my paper fails to address the main argument: that Ludwig von Mises's support for laissez faire comes from a comparison of the systems recommended by the ideologies of socialism, interventionism, and liberalism. Mises compares these systems according to the criterion of their capacity to achieve the goal of satisfying material wants. This goal is either explicit or implicit in the arguments made by those who subscribe to the above ideologies. He uses value-free economic reasoning to determine whether the systems recommended by the three ideologies will achieve the goal. In this reply, I reaffirm the argument in the face of Block's critique. In addition, I address two other arguments. The first is the implicit argument in Murray Rothbard and in Block that Mises erred because he failed to take account of all the goals that policy advocates might have in recommending a policy. I argue that he did not err. The second is that Mises is a utilitarian, an argument also advanced by Leland Yeager. I argue not only that Mises was not but also that he repudiated the idea that his support for laissez faire was based on utilitarian welfare principles. The reply also answers some of Block's more specific criticisms of my paper.     

Pricing Experience Goods: The Effects of Customer Recognition and Commitment

In a two‐period model of nondurable experience goods, we compare the profit and social welfare effects of behavior‐based price discrimination (BBPD) and price commitment (PC) (relative to time‐consistent pricing) in a monopoly. We find that when the static, full‐information monopoly price is higher (lower) than the mean consumer valuation, PC yields higher (lower) profits and social welfare than BBPD. We also identify the market conditions under which BBPD does not increase firm profits and provide an explanation as to when the firm should discriminate against its first‐time and repeat customers, respectively.     

Surveying transitional experience and subjective well-being: Income, work, family

This paper reviews subjective well-being studies on income, work and family life with particular attention to transition countries. The main differences in conclusions for two types of economic systems seem to be the result of uncertainty and fast changing conditions and their effect on the perception of subjective economic conditions and on expectations formation. The terms ‘happiness’ and ‘life satisfaction’ should be distinguished when evaluating the success of socio-economic policies or of a transformation period as well as when predicting the reaction of economic systems to shocks/crisis. A short summary for more than 70 studies involving subjective well-being and attitudes indicators on data from the economies in transition is included.     

Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies

This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonotic pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to conserve a greater quantity of biodiversity to decrease the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a lockdown policy, with the collateral effect of affecting negatively labor productivity. The policy is evaluated using a social welfare function embodying society’s risk aversion, aversion to fluctuations, degree of impatience and altruism towards future generations. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy described. The dependence of the optimal policy on natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is larger for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards future generations. Moreover, societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention–mitigation policy mix.     

Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment,economic policy uncertainty,and stock index fluctuations

This research applies quantile Granger causality and impulse-response analyses to evaluate the causal linkages among Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and S&P 500 indices across the U.S. stock market cycles. We present notable evidence of bi-directional causality among cyclical components of Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and S&P 500 indices for most quantiles. The causal linkage of Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and S&P 500 indices identified in this study reconciles the so-called Easterlin Paradox and Easterlin Illusion arguments from previous studies on income-happiness relationship. Moreover, given a high (low) EPU level, the positive (negative) impulse-response effects between the Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and the S&P 500 indices are justified during a stock market bust cycle, but the signs of these correlations change to negative (positive) during a stock market boom cycle. These findings imply that investors’ hedging strategies can be linked to the surveillance of the Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment index.     

How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?

By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which assumes a currency union consisting of two countries with nontradables, we study the importance of fiscal policy cooperation. As shown in the previous studies, we find that the role of fiscal policy is important in maximizing social welfare. However, we have a contrary result for fiscal policy cooperation. While the previous studies highlight that fiscal policy cooperation has a nontrivial effect in maximizing social welfare, we show that fiscal policy cooperation has no benefits, regardless of the share of nontradables. Self-oriented fiscal policy can replicate social welfare under the cooperative setting.     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.     

When Did Equality Become a Noneconomic Objective?

A bstract .   This brief survey begins with a suggested procedure for determining whether a given economist viewed a particular goal as an economic or noneconomic objective. Roughly speaking, the approach rests on whether that economist attempted a serious analysis of the tradeoffs between the goal in question and some measure of value. In this view, noneconomic objectives, for any school, include all those objectives that, while recognized as potentially legitimate, are not analyzed in terms of commensurable value measures. Three points to notice about the definition: (1) For any economist, economic objectives should be distinguished from a class of intermediate goods valued largely for their predicted positive impact on production; (2) Some objectives may be altogether dismissed by a school, either as beyond the expertise of economic analysis or as downright harmful; (3) Simply acknowledging the existence of a "cost" to achieving a goal leaves that goal as noneconomic since no attempt at valuation has been made.
The paper goes on to sketch three viewpoints toward income equality—that of the classical school as summarized in the work of J. S. Mill, that of the early neoclassicists as represented by Marshall and Pigou, and that of the "new welfare economics" as developed by Kaldor and Hicks. The classical economists valued the relief of poverty, but explicitly attacked anything but the most basic redistributional efforts because of expected dire effects on production. The early neoclassicists built equality implicitly into a utilitarian social welfare function. The "new welfare economics" doubted economists' ability to assess the value of equality, although perhaps not their ability to measure its opportunity cost. Thus the basic argument: both the classicists and the early neoclassicists saw equality as an economic objective, while the new welfare economics was largely built on denying this status to equality.     

Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators

The purpose of this paper is to develop a daily early warning system for stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators. To achieve this goal, we use principal components analysis to propose a comprehensive index of daily market indicators that reflects stock market valuation and investor sentiment. Based on the comprehensive index, we employ a logit model with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition to develop a daily early warning system for stock market crises. Finally, we apply the proposed system to the early warning for stock market crises in China. The in-sample forecasting results show that investor sentiment and the forecast horizon by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition improve the forecasting performance of conventional early warning systems. The out-of-sample forecasting results indicate that the proposed warning system still has a good performance.     

Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model

This paper empirically investigates the optimal monetary policy conduct for the euro area in the presence of heterogeneous economic conditions across member states. Based on the New Keynesian monetary framework, we compare welfare losses under the assumption that the central bank conducts monetary policy using area-wide aggregate data against the alternative assumption that the central bank exploits country-specific as opposed to area-wide data. Empirical results reveal a sizable gain in stabilization performance if the European Central Bank formulates monetary policy by explicitly taking into account cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area. The estimated gain is more pronounced in a hybrid variant than in the purely forward-looking version of the New Keynesian model.     

从资产计价看会计信息地位被弱化的原因及其改进研究

本文主要以会计目标、资产计价、信息需求三者之间的动态关系为逻辑起点,通过对百年的资产计量属性论争和各种计价方法与经济运行关系的研究,质疑当前占主导地位的资产计价法的现实作用,引导出会计信息地位被弱化的原因,并期望以边际生产力理论解决价值在生产要素中分配的困惑。     

The Value of Secondary School Quality*

Improving the quality of state‐funded secondary school education has become a major policy aim in the UK. However, without a valuation of the social benefits derived from public provision of educational services, the rational evaluation of policy to this end is difficult. Utilizing the argument that dwellings near better schools command a price premium, this paper presents results from an empirical exercise aimed at providing such a social valuation of increased school quality. Using a large set of data for England, and an instrumental variable approach, results indicate an elasticity of dwelling purchase price with respect to exam performance by schools at around +0.05. One implication is that society would value a general increase of five percentage points in exam performance by about £450 million per annum.     

On the impatience implications of Paretian social welfare functions

In this paper, we investigate the impatience implications resulting from the assumption of existence of a Paretian social welfare function (SWF) aggregating infinite utility streams. We show, for very general program spaces, that the set of utility streams, at which the SWF exhibits impatience, has the power of the continuum. In the context of a more special program space, which has figured prominently in the literature, we establish that this set is dense, so that even if there is a point in the program space at which the SWF does not exhibit impatience, there are points close to it at which it does. If the Paretian SWF is continuous (in the sup metric), we show that impatience is generic: the collection of points, at which the SWF does not exhibit impatience, is a closed, nowhere dense set.     

The relationship between development, investments, insecurity and social conditions in Colombia: a dynamic approach

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between economic development, investments, savings, insecurity and social conditions in Colombian departments. Using a dynamic heterogeneous panel analysis, we study the effects of insecurity and social conditions on economic development through an estimation of panel data cointegration techniques. The models applied in this study suggest a long-term relationship among economic development, investments, savings, social conditions and insecurity. Investments, savings and human development index have a positive and significant coefficient, which indicates that these variables produce incentives for economic development, whereas GINI and homicides have a negative relationship, demonstrating that these variables undermine economic development. All findings are important in the design of strategies and policies that strengthen income distribution equality, a key factor that determines growth and development through adequate government expenditures that encourage savings and investment decisions with the aim to improve welfare and the standard of living.     

投资者情绪、股利政策与公司价值研究

基于行为金融学背景对股利政策的信号传递作用进行的研究发现,在不同的投资者情绪条件下,股利政策信号传递的效应存在差异。在股市上涨时期,不同股利政策对投资者的投资决策的影响几乎没有显著差异;在股市下跌时期,现金股利成为投资者获得收益的主要来源,因此发放现金股利的公司受到市场追捧。因此,上市公司股利政策制定不仅要考虑自身情况,还需要考虑市场情绪。     

New insights into the role of global factors in BRICS stock markets: A quantile cointegration approach

Because of the acceleration in marketization and globalization, stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries are affected by various global factors, for example, oil prices, gold prices, global stock market volatility, global economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment. This paper offers new insights into the short- and long-run linkages between global factors and BRICS stock markets by applying the quantile autoregressive distributed lags (QARDL) approach. This novel methodology enables us to test short- and long-run linkages accounting for distributional asymmetry. That is, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the global factors and BRICS stock prices depends on market conditions. Our empirical results show that the effects of gold prices and global stock market volatility on BRICS stock prices are more significant in the long run than in the short run. A decrease in global stock market volatility is associated with higher stock prices, while gold prices demonstrate upward co-movement in dynamic correlations with stock markets. Irrational factors, such as economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment, play a critical role in the short term, and negative interdependence is dominant. Finally, the rolling-window estimation technique is used to examine time-varying patterns between major global factors and BRICS stock markets.     

News sentiment,credit spreads,and information asymmetry

This paper examines how the sentiment of firm-specific news affects CDS spreads conditional on the degree of information asymmetry. Using a large set of news releases, we document a strong negative relationship between the sentiment of firm-specific news and CDS spreads. More importantly, consistent with the role of public news in reducing information asymmetry, we find evidence that the relation between news sentiment and CDS spreads is stronger for firms with higher information asymmetry. Furthermore, the relation is stronger for news with negative sentiment and during the 2008 financial crisis. Our results are robust to alternative sentiment measures.