The Calendar Structure of the Japanese Stock Market: The ‘Sell in May Effect’ versus the ‘Dekansho‐bushi Effect’

We report on a seasonal pattern that has persisted in the Japanese stock market for more than half a century: Mean stock returns are significantly positive for months during the first half of the calendar year and significantly negative for months during the second half. Dubbed the Dekansho‐bushi effect, this seasonality is independent of other known calendar anomalies, such as the so‐called January effect. The Dekansho‐bushi effect should be distinguished from the ‘sell in May effect,’ because Japanese stocks perform well in June and poorly in November and December. The Dekansho‐bushi effect varies in magnitude among firms and is particularly significant among small firms with high book‐to‐market ratios. Nonetheless, the effect exists, regardless of a company's size or book‐to‐market ratio.     

Market valuation of marketing alliances in East Asia: Korean evidence

This paper investigates firm value created by non-equity marketing alliance announcements of Korean listed firms in terms of stock price reactions to the announcements. We find evidence that on the Korean stock market, the announcements of marketing alliances produce significant positive abnormal returns, which reflect an increase in firm value, around the announcement date. This suggests that firm managers need to seek for various marketing alliances not only for an effective competition in competitive business environments but also for enhancement in shareholder wealth. The increase in firm value has inverse relationship with firm's size and growth opportunity. In particular, marketing alliances with firms based in G7-countries create greater firm value than ones with firms based in the home country. Our study provides investors, firm managers, and academics with valuable implications of an importance of marketing alliances for valuation of firms in other Asian countries as well as in Korea.     

Information asymmetry and investor trading behavior around bond rating change announcements

This study examines stock market reactions to public announcements (corporate bond rating changes), including changes in stock prices and investor behavior in terms of trading volumes and patterns. Abnormal returns, abnormal volumes, and net order imbalances are estimated using high-quality stock transaction data from Korean firms, whose bonds were rated by Korea's leading credit rating agencies between 2000 and 2015. We find positive (negative) abnormal stock returns around upgrades (downgrades), although the stock price reactions to downgrades are more statistically significant than those to upgrades. Significant abnormal volumes and order imbalances are found around rating changes, and the extent to which each investor group (domestic individuals, domestic institutions, or foreign investors) reacts to a rating change varies. Our analyses also support that foreign and domestic institutional investors are better informed than individual investors.     

The aftermarket performance of small firm initial public offerings

The dream of many entrepreneurs is to some day take his or her growing small firm public and, to thereby become the CEO of a publicly-traded corporation. Currently, entrepreneurs are continuing to utilize initial public offerings (IPOs), as a viable source of venture financing. IPOs also represent a viable mechanism for harvesting venture capital and entrepreneurial investments. The touted entrepreneurial benefits of taking a company public include the abilities to borrow additional funds; return to the public equity market; negotiate mergers without depleting cash; the potential for enhanced personal wealth and so forth. Investors in small firm public equity issues are often motivated by the potential for discovering another Apple Computer, or perhaps an IBM at the “ground floor.”This study empirically examines the aftermarket returns of small publicly-held firms that have issued initial public offerings. Aftermarket returns refers to stock returns immediately after a stock begins trading. The study specifically examines two questions. First, “Is there a positive risk-return relationship for small firm aftermarket returns, where higher firm risk will generate higher aftermarket return?” Second, “Will aftermarket returns show on industry effect, where certain industries will automatically generate higher returns?” Answers to these questions will affect the strategic financial alternatives available to entrepreneurs both before and after going public and, will also affect the decisions of investors interested in financing small public corporations.The research findings indicate that entrepreneurs planning to take younger firms public will probably not have available to them numerous subsequent financial alternatives, utilizing corporate stock, if the true aftermarket performance of their stock is taken into consideration. Likewise, investors in small firm public issues may also be disappointed in the aftermarket performance of younger firms. A positive risk-return relationship, where age was a proxy measure of risk, did not exist. This was true even though the initially quoted returns of these same younger firms may have been substantial. On the other hand, the aftermarket performance of older firms is typically favorable.Finally, the study suggests that neither entrepreneurs nor investors should bet solely on a particular industry categorization to “carry” their aftermarket stock performance. While certain industries indicated significant positive initial returns, aftermarket returns based on industry classification were generally not statistically significant. Investors should therefore always exercise firmspecific due diligence and research before investing in small firm public equity issues, since the variance of their aftermarket market returns tends to be large.     

Further evidence on Asian stock return behavior

This paper examines the relationship between expected stock returns and size, and market-to-book ratio in five Asian emerging markets: India, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. Overall, we find a strong size effect in all markets and a significant market-to-book effect in Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. When the tests allow for both variables, the negative relationship between size and average return is less robust; the inclusion of market-to-book equity seems to absorb the role of size in Asian stock returns. Our finding for the Asian market applies to the post-1984 period, thus questioning the assertion of Black [J. Portfolio Manage. 20 (1993) 8] and MacKinlay (1995) that “the value premium is sample-specific”. Although small firms have—to a certain extent—higher average returns than large firms in Asian markets, the market-to-book variable seems to have a consistently stronger role in average returns and would suggest that value stocks have higher average returns than growth stocks. Thus, the higher average return on value stocks in the Asian emerging markets can be considered as a local manifestation of a global phenomenon.     

The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target

This paper analyzes the impact of an unexpected increase in the federal funds rate target on stock returns. The main innovation is the use of a measure of monetary policy shocks based on the ACH-VAR (autoregressive conditional hazard VAR) model for the federal funds rate target. This model allows the analysis of two sources of an unexpected increase in the Fed target. This unexpected increase in the Fed target can be due to an unexpected increase in the federal funds rate target when it is expected to remain constant, or it can be due to an expected decrease in the federal funds rate target that fails to occur. These two events in the ACH-VAR model give rise to completely different information on the expected future federal funds rate. We examine the responses of stock returns for both S&P 500 stock returns and stock returns of portfolio sizes. We find that stock returns are more responsive to unanticipated increases in the federal funds rate than they are to unrealized expectations of a decrease in the federal funds rate. Our results also indicate that the firms with larger capitalization respond less to the two unanticipated monetary policy shocks.     

Examining political connections to study institutional change: Evidence from two unexpected election outcomes in South Korea

We argue that the analysis of multiple political connections in an event study framework can improve the study of institutional change. Based on a unique data set of multiple political relationships of 4,936 South Korean board of director members, we show that the large business conglomerates, the chaebol, did not benefit from the unexpected conservative election victories in the 2012 South Korean parliamentary and presidential elections. Personal connections to the presidential candidates and to the opposition party were relevant for the stock returns of small firms. Our findings suggest that Korea's political economy has evolved into a hybrid regime in which the political power of large multinational corporations is limited, but political connections still matter for smaller firms. The corruption scandal that led to the impeachment of President Park in 2017 and the long‐term development of market capitalisation appear to be congruent with the results of our study.     

Country v sector effects in equity returns and the roles of geographical and firm-size coverage

Since Roll (The Journal of Finance 47(1):3–41, 1992) and Heston and Rouwenhorst (Journal of Financial Economics 36:3–27, 1994), there has been a debate whether country factors in international stock returns are typically more variable than sector factors. The addition of emerging markets (EMs) does boost the ratio of country-factor variance relative to industry-factor variance: these markets have a higher variability, but are also less related to global factors. Investigating to what extent this phenomenon can be tracked down to the impact of adding more small firms, we find the following. (1) Small firms do have higher volatility, but only after controlling for country and sector affiliation. (2) Small firms do have weaker sector affinity, as expected. (3) Small firms unexpectedly have weaker local-market sensitivities than large firms. Facts (2) and (3) mean that adding more small firms to the data base has a diversifying effect on both the sector- and country-factor variance; while the impact on sector variance is larger, the net effect turns out to be tiny. (4) Adding emerging markets has a very marked impact on the variance ratio. In fact, the addition of small stocks to the sample hardly dents the effect of adding EMs. Thus, the role of EMs cannot be reduced to just a small-firm phenomenon.     

Does the Quality of Corporate Governance Affect Firm Valuation and Risk? Evidence from a Corporate Governance Scorecard in Hong Kong*

Using Hong Kong firm data, we construct an index of corporate governance during 2002–2005, which scores the corporate governance practices of listed companies from the public shareholders' perspective based on the Organization for Economic Corporation and Development Principles of Corporate Governance. The findings show that family firms and firms with concentrated ownership structures are associated with bad corporate governance. The evidence also shows that these firms improve their corporate governance practices slower than their peers. Overall, the quality of corporate governance is very significant in explaining future company stock returns and risk. Good corporate governance is associated with both higher stock returns and with lower risk. Improvements in corporate governance are associated with significantly higher stock returns and lower company risk.     

When Bad Things Happen to the Endorsers of Good Products

We investigate how a firm's financial performance (as measured by stock returns) is influenced when celebrity endorsers become involved in undesirable events, i.e., events that have a deleterious effect on the spokespersons. We find that the stock market reaction to these events is negatively related to spokesperson blameworthiness. The lower (higher) the culpability, the higher (lower) the stock return. Interestingly, it is only those firms associated with spokespersons having high culpability that tend to experience losses in stock market value. In contrast, we find that events rated at or below the mean level of blameworthiness are associated with positive stock market returns.     

The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data

This paper examines how the Asian and Russian crises affected different types of firms around the world. It constructs a new data set of financial statistics, industry information, geographic data, and stock returns for over 10?000 companies in 46 countries. Results show that firms competing with exports from the crisis countries, or with direct sales exposure to the crisis countries, had significantly lower abnormal stock returns. Firms with higher debt ratios, however, did not experience lower abnormal returns. Country-specific effects, although important determinants of company stock returns, are generally less important than firm-specific characteristics. These results suggest that trade channels are important factors determining how crises are transmitted internationally.     

The value of winning: endorsement returns in individual sports

Using the results of 1068 different golf, tennis, and track and field (in particular: running) events, this paper examines the relation between athlete performance and stock returns of firms endorsed by athletes. We find that a tournament victory is associated with significant and positive market-adjusted stock returns for the endorsed clothing brand. Regression analysis reveals that winning is associated with a more positive price reaction than finishing as runner-up. In addition, we find that returns after a victory are significantly higher for endorsed clothing brands than for equipment brands. We did not detect return differences between superstars and regular athletes, nor between frequently endorsed brands and less commonly endorsed brands.     

Are stocks dumped or neglected by analysts' inferior investments to covered stocks?

We compare the long-term stock price and operating performance of firms that are followed by analysts to those that are not over the period of 1994-2005. While analysts are skillful in identifying quality firms for coverage, the market is efficient in pricing both covered and neglected stocks such that risk-adjusted stock returns are compatible between the two groups. However, dumped stocks consistently outperform covered stocks with significant risk-adjusted returns across different market conditions and regulatory environments. Hence, investors might earn better returns by investing in dumped stocks, but the higher returns may represent compensation for greater search costs and information risk associated with investing in these stocks.     

Stock Returns,Productivity, and Corruption in Eight European Fast-Emerging Markets

This article addresses the impact of productivity, corruption, and trade openness on the stock returns of 265 industrial companies listed in eight Eastern European fast-emerging markets, over the 2004-2013 period. Through a three-factor model that includes both measures at firm level and macro-level control variables, our findings suggest that country corruption index is negatively correlated with the total annual return of the stocks of the listed industrial companies of our sample. Moreover, the most productive firms are featured by higher stock returns, while leverage seems not to be a key predictor of stock returns. In addition, the article uncovers innovative evidence about trade openness that is negatively correlated with stock returns due to its connection with the recent financial crisis. That is, firms operating in markets that are more open to trade show a higher degree of interconnection with other economies and are more likely to undergo the effects of negative fluctuations from foreign markets during the economic crisis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The asymmetric effect of warranty payments on firm value: The moderating role of advertising,R&D,and industry concentration

Changes in firms’ warranty payments are informative signals that enable investors to form timely expectations about potential changes in product quality. The authors’ survey shows that warranty payments affect potential investors’ product quality assessments and stock investment likelihood. Their quantitative analysis reveals an asymmetric stock market reaction: unanticipated increases in warranty payments (which signal quality “losses”) lower stock returns but unanticipated decreases do not affect stock returns. Two important factors moderate this relationship. First, boosting advertising spending attenuates the negative stock return effect of unanticipated increases in warranty payments. Second, unanticipated decreases in warranty payments, which signal quality “gains”, translate into higher stock returns when the industry has become less concentrated. Interestingly, changes in R&D spending do not moderate investors’ response to unanticipated increases or decreases in warranty payments. The authors advise firms to use advertising to lessen the harm from warranty payment increases and to strongly communicate warranty payment decreases in the face of intensified competition. The authors also caution that offering warranties in general does not ensure greater firm value as declining quality firms that myopically offer warranty programs experience lower firm value than those that do not provide warranties.     

The Relaxation of Financing Constraints by the Initial Public Offering of Small Manufacturing Firms

Capital market imperfections, such as information asymmetry, increase the cost of external funds compared to that of internal funds. This phenomenon creates financing constraints limiting the availability of external funds and making corporate investment excessively sensitive to cash flow. This study analyzes the effect of financing constraints on the investment by comparing the financial behavior of Korean firms before and after their stocks are newly listed on a stock exchange. The results show that the sensitivity of investment to cash flow will be higher during the period before initial public offering (IPO) than after IPO. In particular, the effect of financing constraints relaxation by IPO is more prominent in small than in large manufacturing firms.     

The Disappearing January/Turn of the Year Effect: Evidence From Stock Index Futures and Cash Markets

This study examines the returns, relative to the S&P 500, on cash indices and futures tracking smaller stocks around the turn of the year. While we control for volatility clustering, return autocorrelation in small stock indices, and other calendar effects, our main focus is the evolution of the turn of the year effect through time: in particular, whether the effect is smaller or takes place earlier subsequent to the introduction of the S&P Midcap and Russell 2000 futures in 1993. We find that evidence of a traditional turn of the year effect, in both cash and futures, is confined to the pre‐1993 period. Post‐1993, there are no abnormal returns during the turn of the year window as a whole. Interestingly, returns in this period remain high on the last trading day of December, but they are negative across the first five trading days of January. In addition, post‐1993, we often observe significant abnormal returns prior to the traditional turn of the year, i.e., in the pre‐Christmas and post‐Christmas windows. Taken together, our results suggest that market participants may be eliminating the turn of the year effect with the aid of two new futures contracts that are well suited to this purpose. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:755–784, 2004     

Do cross-border mergers and acquisitions increase short-term market performance? The case of Chinese firms

Despite the new momentum in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by emerging market firms, we have a limited understanding of the impact of these activities. Drawing on signalling theory and the institution-based view, this paper examines the extent of stock market reactions to the announcement of cross-border M&A deals, based on an event study of a sample of Chinese firms during the period 2000–2012. The findings indicate that the announcement of cross-border M&As results in a positive stock market reaction; this effect is more significant in the mainland Chinese stock markets (Shanghai and Shenzhen) than that in the Hong Kong market. The shareholders of Chinese firms that acquire a target firm in a host country with a low level of political risk gain higher cumulative abnormal returns than those firms targeting companies in countries with a high level of political risk. The shareholders of Chinese state-owned enterprises experience lower abnormal returns compared with those of Chinese privately owned firms when engaging in cross-border M&A deals.     

Small new firms and the return to alternative sources of finance

This study analyses the returns to alternative sources of finance in the small new firm sector. Prior work in this area has concentrated on large established firms and has been subject to significant problems of interpretation. Many of these problems are absent when considering small new firms and this paper suggests that the various forms of finance used differ in terms of the return on capital employed they are associated with. In particular, sources of bank finance for small new firms are associated with higher returns than other available sources of finance.This paper, therefore, supports the results of Baumol et al. (1970, 1973) that externally raised finance is associated with higher returns vis-à-vis internally raised finance and suggests that small new firms are either inefficient in their use of funds or suffer from imperfections in capital markets. The determination of which of these arguments applies, however, awaits further research.