Unemployment in South Africa: Trends,causes and cures

The main macro‐estimates of unemployment rates in South Africa clearly show both cyclical sensitivity and a secularly rising upward trend, presenting a striking similarity with the United Kingdom and other OECD countries. The rising long‐term trend in the unemployment rate is not confined to Blacks but probably applies to Whites, Coloureds and Asians also. It has been mainly due to a decline in the demand for labour caused by a falling rate of capital accumulation rather than by rising capital‐intensity. The slower rate of capital accumulation stems primarily from forces originating abroad, which have affected the world economy as a whole, though the fluctuating gold price has aggravated our problems. Policy in the spheres of international trade and monetary relations is therefore crucial and there are reasons for concern over current thinking in these areas.     

Job Search and the Measurement of Unemployment in South Africa

We interrogate the distinction between searching and non‐searching unemployment in South Africa using data from the first national panel survey that tracks the individual. In particular, we test whether the non‐searching unemployed display a weaker commitment to the labour market than the searching unemployed, and we investigate what counts as search activity. We find that over the panel, the search status of the unemployed does not predict their subsequent employment status, a result that is robust also for subsamples that vary by age cohort, gender and location. Moreover, social networks are the most important job‐finding strategy of the employed. These findings challenge the exclusion of the non‐searching unemployed from the measure of “genuine” work seekers.     

Unemployment and aids: the social‐democratic challenge for South Africa

Addressing Aids and unemployment is one of the greatest challenges facing South Africa at present. Health and welfare interventions will be costly and are likely to meet with resistance from taxpayers. Expanding employment (which will help alleviate poverty and expand the pool of taxpayers) is thus necessary. An inclusive social accord could help, but only if organised labour is prepared to make concessions, as was the case in the new social accords in Australia, Ireland and the Netherlands.     

State as pimp: sexual slavery in South Africa

The disturbing prevalence of sexual slavery in South Africa is variously attributed to extreme poverty, unemployment, war, lack of food, and traditional practices that make it acceptable to treat women as commodities. Such ‘causes’ are better understood as enabling conditions. The demand for sex workers, organised criminal syndicates and the failure of legal imagination are the real drivers of the South African market. The authors address this failure of legal imagination and suggest how the constitutional prohibition against slavery can be used to develop a legal doctrine of sexual slavery, as well as on appropriate set of remedies, that will assist the State in its efforts to eradicate sexual trafficking.     

The Child Support Grant and teenage childbearing in South Africa

This paper examines data on teenage fertility and patterns of uptake of the Child Support Grant in South Africa from 1998 to 2005, to assess how far this Grant is associated with the trend in teenage childbearing. Teenage fertility was fairly high during the 1980s when state financial assistance to teenage mothers did not adequately serve the majority of South Africans. Since the first half of the 1990s, however, teenage fertility has steadily declined. This trend was already underway when the grant was expanded in 1998 to reach beneficiaries in all sub-groups of the national population. If teenage girls were having children primarily to benefit from the Child Support Grant, then more would be making claims than is in fact the case. The findings of this study do not suggest any significant positive association between the grant and the trend in teenage childbearing in South Africa during the past decade.     

Unemployment in Africa: A Fractional Integration Approach

This paper estimates long‐memory models to analyse the stochastic behaviour of unemployment in eleven African countries (Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia) from the 1960s until 2010. The empirical results provide very strong evidence of lack of mean reversion in all series under examination. This suggests that hysteresis models are the most relevant for the African experience (not surprisingly, given the rigidities in their labour markets). Therefore in such countries shocks hitting the unemployment series will have permanent effects, and policy makers should take appropriate action to reverse the effects of negative shocks.     

Trade‐Induced Unemployment: The Case of Post‐Apartheid South Africa

This paper analyses the link between changes in trade flows and labour demand in post‐apartheid South Africa (1994–2006). Although this is not the first research with regard to this topic, it is one of the few that uses a consistent trade framework. Based on a three‐dimensional Heckscher–Ohlin trade model, a theoretical framework is constructed to analyse this link. Whereas it is impossible to test the theoretical link directly because of data limitations, an indirect econometric test supports the findings of the model. This implies that the combination of increased trade and labour market rigidities was unfavourable for labour opportunities.     

Household formation and service delivery in post-apartheid South Africa: Evidence from the Agincourt sub-district 1992–2012

ABSTRACT

South Africa has seen a rapid rate of new household formation since 1994. The same period has also seen an impressive roll-out of housing and services. These interact since new household formation delays the elimination of backlogs. Based on data from the Agincourt study site and a novel decomposition technique we examine the process by which household size has been reduced and suggest that service delivery may actually fuel new household formation.