Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

A Nonlinear Approach for Modeling and Forecasting US Business Cycles

The purpose of this paper is to provide a complete evaluation of four regime-switching models by checking their performance in detecting US business cycle turning points, in replicating US business cycle features and in forecasting US GDP growth rate. Both individual and combined forecasts are considered. Results indicate that while the Markov-switching model succeeded in replicating all the NBER peak and trough dates without an extra-cycle detection, it seems to be outperformed by the Bounce-back model in term of the delay time to a correct alarm. Concerning business cycle features characterization, none of the competing models dominates over all the features. The performance of the Markov-switching and bounce back models in detecting turning points was not translated into an improved business cycle feature characterization since they are outperformed by the Floor and Ceiling model. The forecast performance of the considered models varies across regimes and across forecast horizons. That is, the model performing best in an expansion period is not necessarily the same in a recession period and similarly for the forecast horizons. Finally, combining such individual forecasts generally leads to increased forecast accuracy especially for h=1.     

基于动态规划方法的最优消费路径

基于递归优化理论建立了包含资本折旧率和贴现因子的最优消费模型,通过猜解汉密尔顿—雅可比—贝尔曼方程,得出了消费效用最大化的值函数、策略函数、最优消费和资本累积序列。通过分析最优消费和资本累积序列发现:当资本产出弹性等于单位弹性时,AK模型的资本增长率更大,资本不收敛;当资本产出弹性小于1大于0时,AK模型的资本增长率更小,资本收敛。通过分析值函数发现:消费—投资比与社会效用成反比,贴现因子与社会效用成正比,折旧率与社会效用成反比。基于中国1978～2010年的消费和资本数据的实证分析,本文发现中国的值函数受到经济增长阶段的系统性影响,当经济处于较低的起飞阶段时,消费—投资比与值函数成正比,即与理论模型预期相反;当经济处于较高的发展阶段时,消费-投资比与值函数成反比,即与理论预期一致。     

Forecasting Canadian consumption using the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES)

This paper uses the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (Dgles) to: 1. study the behaviour of the Canadian consumer; and 2. provide ex postforecasts of consumption expenditures by commodity group. The model is estimated for seven commodity groups (durables, food, fuel, gasoline, other non-durables, semi-durables and services) using quarterly data covering the period 1961.I–1978.IV. The method of estimation is the full information maximum likelihood routine, and the ex postforecasts are provided for the period 1979.I–1981.IV.     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

科技安全风险评估及监测预警系统构建研究

科技领域安全是国家安全的重要组成部分,而复杂的国际局势、严苛的技术限制以及当代科技面临的颠覆性发展趋势已引发一系列关涉科技安全的重大问题,给我国国家安全和公共安全带来严峻挑战。从风险评估与安全预警视角出发,依循“变量识别—数据评估—安全预警—预案调用”的预警思路,运用专家访谈、扎根理论和层次分析法,构建科技安全风险评估框架,并提出科技安全监测预警系统构建逻辑。其中,科技安全风险评估框架主要包括要素性、自反性、自主性、保障性风险4类关键指标;监测预警系统建立在风险评估框架基础上,主要包含警情评估、警情报告、管理决策、应急预案4个子系统。基于研究结果,针对我国科技安全监测预警系统构建提出相关建议,以期为我国科技治理及保障科技安全提供新思路。     

Markets for Tradeable Emission and Ambient Permits: A Dynamic Approach

This paper discusses trade mechanisms in pollutionpermit markets. Proofs are given, that sequential,bilateral trade in tradeable emissions permitsconverges to a market equilibrium with minimal totalcosts of pollution control. If ambient or depositionpermits are traded, the convergence of bilateraltransactions occurs only in the case of a singlereceptor. For multiple receptors, the proof ofconvergence for tradeable emissions and ambientpermits is given for two trade mechanisms: sequential,multilateral trade and a Walrasian auction.     

区域风险投资环境的动态评价

首先探讨了区域风险投资环境的一般特征，并建立了一套区域风险投资环境的评价指标体系，然后根据区域风险投资环境不断发展变化的动态性特点，给出一种动态评价方法。     

奥运科技评价方法研究

科技奥运,既是中国申办2008年奥运会成功的重要理念,也将成为北京奥运成功举办的重要保障条件。对奥运科技的相关技术领域开展评价可以将有限的科技资源优化配置,确定北京奥运的科技发展战略。论述了奥运科技评价的意义;从宏观层面对目前奥运科技的总体评价和从微观层面对奥运科技的某一子领域的优先领域评价。在科技优先领域评价的基础上结合奥运会的特点对奥运科技评价方法和指标体系提出了自己的研究结论。最后,在已建立评价模型的基础上对评价结果进行了分析。     

公共政策定量评估方法之比较研究

政策评估可以在政策实施前选择最优政策或政策组合，也可以在实施以后评价实施效果。根据不同的政策环境选择不同的政策评估方法，可以有效提高政策评价的准确度。     

On Constructive Technology Assessment and Limitations on Public Participation in Technology Assessment

The paper reviews selected literature on the theory and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA), which represents a promising approach for managing technology through society. CTA emphasises the involvement and interaction of diverse participants to facilitate 'upstream' (or anticipatory) learning about possible impacts of technology and socially robust decision-making. The paper seeks to identify limitations of CTA, as these relate to the broadening of debate about nascent, controversial technology. In particular, it considers the relevance of CTA to the achievement of more democratic decision-making about technology. In addition, the paper directs attention towards differences in participants' discursive capacities and rhetorical skills that may affect the role and contribution of non-expert citizens in technology assessment. The paper draws upon the debate between Habermas and Foucault to suggest promising avenues for future research based on technology assessment conceptualised as discourse. It concludes that the theory and practice of CTA may be improved by addressing explicitly possible structural limitations on the broadening of debate, whilst invoking a notion of technology assessment as discourse to point up cultural, subjective or cognitive limitations on agency.     

论我国科技评估体系中伦理之维的缺失问题

从技术评估的本质属性出发,粗线条地回顾和梳理了国外技术评估的发展轨迹和总体演变趋势,在此基础上深入剖析了我国科技评估体系中伦理之维的缺失问题。     

On Constructive Technology Assessment and Limitations on Public Participation in Technology Assessment

The paper reviews selected literature on the theory and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA), which represents a promising approach for managing technology through society. CTA emphasises the involvement and interaction of diverse participants to facilitate ‘upstream’ (or anticipatory) learning about possible impacts of technology and socially robust decision-making. The paper seeks to identify limitations of CTA, as these relate to the broadening of debate about nascent, controversial technology. In particular, it considers the relevance of CTA to the achievement of more democratic decision-making about technology. In addition, the paper directs attention towards differences in participants' discursive capacities and rhetorical skills that may affect the role and contribution of non-expert citizens in technology assessment. The paper draws upon the debate between Habermas and Foucault to suggest promising avenues for future research based on technology assessment conceptualised as discourse. It concludes that the theory and practice of CTA may be improved by addressing explicitly possible structural limitations on the broadening of debate, whilst invoking a notion of technology assessment as discourse to point up cultural, subjective or cognitive limitations on agency.     

Land Use Change with Spatially Explicit Data: A Dynamic Approach

Most of the economic literature that uses spatially-explicit data to estimate the determinants of land-use change is limited to static models and cross-sectional data sets. Recent attempts to move to a more dynamic analysis include using panel data sets and survival analysis. In this study, we use a discrete choice dynamic model of land-use where the agent’s choices are regarded as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem. The irreversibility of some decisions, expectations about future prices, and forward-looking behavior of the land operator can all be accounted for. Our results show that a model specification that incorporates some of the complexities of the decision process improves upon results found in the existing literature. First, prediction accuracy of land use change is superior to any of the existing models. Second, we demonstrate that models that do not account for transactions costs tend to overestimate the effects of changes in transportation costs.     

A Bayesian Approach To Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models

Though Hamilton's (1989) Markov-switching model has been widely estimated in various contexts, formal testing for Markov-switching is not straightforward. Univariate tests in the classical framework by Hansen (1992) and Garcia (1998) do not reject the linear model for GDP. We present Bayesian tests for Markov-switching in both univariate and multivariate settings based on sensitivity of the posterior probability to the prior. We find that evidence for Markov-switching, and thus the business cycle asymmetry, is stronger in a switching version of the dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1991) than it is for GDP by itself.     

DFA方法在保险公司偿付能力评估中的应用

目前,保险公司偿付能力评估方法正在由以定性分析为主向定性和定量相结合过渡。本文在对现有偿付能力评估方法进行比较分析的基础上,阐述DFA模型的基本原理及其应用于保险公司偿付能力评估的现实性与可行性,并对这一方法在我国的应用前景进行了展望。     

Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach*

ABSTRACT

In this article, the multihorizon predictive power of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) is analysed by making use of several close- and open-economy specifications for the headline inflation of six developed countries. The key element is the use of direct measures of inflation expectations – Consensus Forecast – embedded in a compact-scale Global VAR (GVAR) environment, becoming the baseline open-economy HNKPC (OE-HNKPC) specification. These OE-HNKPC point forecasts are evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Forecast Error (RMSFE) statistic and statistically compared with several benchmarks, including traditional atheoretical models. Several OE-HNKPC as well as a closed-economy HNKPC (CE-HNKPC) specifications are also analysed. The results indicate that in four out of six countries, the CE-HNKPC is the best forecasting model, whereas for the same countries, a parsimonious OE-HNKPC is the second-best alternative, and in most cases, outperforming traditional statistical benchmarks. The RMSFE is obviously affected by the unanticipated effects of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), spoiling out the performance of a number of competing forecasts. However, when considering an evaluation sample just before the crisis, both the CE-HNKPC and the parsimonious OE-HNKPC still come out as the best forecasting models. Furthermore, these preferred models also do an excellent job tracking inflation better than the best atheoretical models during the GFC.