Postconflict Transitions: An Overview

In the two to five years immediately following end of conflicts,UN peacekeeping operations have succeeded in maintaining peace,while income and consumption growth rates have been higher thannormal and recovery on key education and health indicators hasbeen possible. Aid also has been super-effective in promotingrecovery, not only by financing physical infrastructure butalso by helping in the monetary reconstruction of postconflicteconomies. However, sustaining these short-term gains was metwith two difficult challenges. First, long-term sustainabilityof peace and growth hinges primarily on the ability of postconflictsocieties to develop institutions for the delivery of publicgoods, which, in turn, depends on the capacity of post-conflictelites to overcome an entrenched culture of political fragmentationand form stable national coalitions, beyond their immediateethnic or regional power bases. Second, after catch-up growthruns its course, high levels of aid could lead to overvaluedreal currencies, at a time when growth requires a competitiveexchange rate and economic diversification. Successful peace-buildingwould, therefore, require that these political and economicimperatives of postconflict transitions be accounted for inthe design of UN peacekeeping operations as well as the aidregime.     

The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Bounded or Falling?

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction betweenFeldman's (1989) and Riedel's (2000) equilibrium models of theterm structure of interest rates under incomplete information.Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information versionof Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivityfactors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are ‘interior’and bounded. Interestingly, Riedel (2000) showed that an incompleteinformation version of Lucas (1978), with an unobservable constantgrowth rate, induces a ‘corner’ unbounded equilibriumterm structure: it decreases to negative infinity. This paperdefines constant and stochastic asymptotic moments, clarifiesthe apparent conflict between Feldman's and Riedel's equilibria,and discusses implications. Because productivity and growthrates are not directly observable in the real world, the questionwe answer is of particular relevance. JEL Classification codes:E43, G12, D92, D80, D51.     

State Dependence Can Explain the Risk Aversion Puzzle

Risk aversion functions extracted from observed stock and optionprices can be negative, as shown by Aït-Sahalia and Lo(2000), Journal of Econometrics 94: 9–51; and Jackwerth(2000), The Review of Financial Studies 13(2), 433–51.We rationalize this puzzle by a lack of conditioning on latentstate variables. Once properly conditioned, risk aversion functionsand pricing kernels are consistent with economic theory. Todifferentiate between the various theoretical explanations interms of heterogeneity of beliefs or preferences, market sentiment,state-dependent utility, or regimes in fundamentals, we calibrateseveral consumption-based asset pricing models to match theempirical pricing kernel and risk aversion functions at differentdates and over several years.     

Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns

Stock market returns are significantly correlated with inflationand money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variableson aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish,perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time invariant.We estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns, where realizedreturns and their conditional volatility depend on 17 macroseries' announcements. We find six candidates for priced factors:three nominal (CPI, PPI, and a Monetary Aggregate) and threereal (Balance of Trade, Employment Report, and Housing Starts).Popular measures of overall economic activity, such as IndustrialProduction or GNP are not represented.     

Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies

A reduction in inflation can fuel run-ups in housing pricesif people suffer from money illusion. For example, investorswho decide whether to rent or buy a house by simply comparingmonthly rent and mortgage payments do not take into accountthe fact that inflation lowers future real mortgage costs. Wedecompose the price–rent ratio into a rational component—meantto capture the "proxy effect" and risk premia—and an impliedmispricing. We find that inflation and nominalinterest ratesexplain a large share of the time series variation of the mispricing,and that the tilt effect is very unlikely to rationalize thisfinding.     

The global threat of deflation calls for swift interest rate cuts in Europe

Conclusions Given the serious crisis in Asia and evidence of its spreading to other developing and transition countries, the attempt by German economic policymakers to achieve faster economic growth and higher employment almost exclusively by means of successes on export markets appears likely to fail sooner than had been expected by the DIW⁵. The significance of domestic demand has been systematically underestimated in recent years. With the help of extremely low pay settlements, the D-Mark was devalued in real terms; this promoted exports, but at the same time led to growth losses in private consumption and investment that more than offset the gains in exports. On top of this German fiscal policy—as documented in the following report in this issue—has weakened domestic demand and investment activity. This strategy might have worked if a symmetrically oriented monetary policy had reacted to the deflationary trend inherent in pay settlements and the fiscal-policy stance by swiftly and significantly reducing interest rates. This did not happen. It was therefore inevitable that the crisis in sales markets made its full effects felt on economic growth. More seriously still, if cost deflation in Germany is not brought to an end in the coming year by a return to productivity-oriented wage settlements, it will pose a major threat to the European Monetary Union.⁶ If Germany pursues a beggar-thyneighbour policy in a Europe without exchange rates, this can only result in deflation and a downward economic spiral.⁷     

The Netherlands: An employment policy role model?

Conclusion While in recent years the level of social security benefits in the Netherlands has been reduced somewhat —whereby to some extent this involved the employers shouldering additional costs (e.g. for disability pensions) —the benefits for unemployment and other social bene-fits remain high in international comparative terms. Despite a slight decline in social benefits as a share of GDP, public sector spending as a whole is, at around 50%, slightly higher than in Germany, although the Netherlands has not had to cope with extraordinary burdens such as have resulted from German unification. The successes achieved by the Netherlands on the labour market have been exaggerated. Firstly, the real level of unemployment is likely to be actually rather high in international terms, at least once one dispenses with a narrow definition and takes account, in particular, of the large number of occupationally disabled. Secondly, the fall in the unemployment rate is far from spectacular. Although the increase in the number of wage and salary earners has been substantially higher in the Netherlands than in west Germany, this in no way represents a comparable increase in the volume of employment—measured in working hours—as the incidence of part-time employment has increased far faster there than in west Germany. The Netherlands has achieved-slightly-higher growth than west Germany. This success is largely due to a very moderate growth of wages and salaries, amounting to a real depreciation of the guilder against the D-Mark, an economic policy strategy that can be successful in a small country, but one which, if applied by a large country such as Germany, would merely initiate a beggar-thy-neighbour race to lower real exchange rates.     

Poverty traps and intergenerational transfers

In this paper, by adopting an OLG neoclassical growth model, we show that intergenerational transfers may trigger the take off of an economy entrapped into poverty in a twofold way: (1) by eliminating the zero equilibrium, which, under technology with low factor substitutability, is always a “catching” point, so that the economy might start converging to a positive equilibrium. In this case, the appropriate instrument turns out to be a transfer from the old to the young, while there is no room for policies redistributing in the opposite direction (i.e., a pay-as-you-go pension scheme); (2) when the rich equilibrium is unstable—which can be the case under high intertemporal elasticity of substitution of individuals—the introduction of transfers may stabilize such an equilibrium, so that the economy starts converging to it. In the latter case, both policy programs such as pay-as-you-go pension schemes or subsidies to the young may help escaping from poverty. However, we point out that in either circumstance, the “size” of transfers should be sufficiently large (and, as for pensions, not even too large), in order to avoid ineffective and useless burden on the taxpayers without triggering the take off.      

LARCH, Leverage, and Long Memory

We consider the long-memory and leverage properties of a modelfor the conditional variance of an observable stationary sequence X_t, where is the square of an inhomogeneous linear combination of X_s, s < t, withsquare summable weights b_j. This model, which we call linearautoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (LARCH), specializes,when depends only on X_t–1, to theasymmetric ARCH model of Engle (1990, Review of Financial Studies3, 103–106), and, when depends only on finitely many X_s, to a version of the quadratic ARCH modelof Sentana (1995, Review of Economic Studies 62, 639–661),these authors having discussed leverage potential in such models.The model that we consider was suggested by Robinson (1991,Journal of Econometrics 47, 67–84), for use as a possiblylong-memory conditionally heteroskedastic alternative to i.i.d.behavior, and further studied by Giraitis, Robinson and Surgailis(2000, Annals of Applied Probability 10, 1002–1004), whoshowed that integer powers , =" BORDER="0">2 can have long-memory autocorrelations. We establish conditionsunder which the cross-autocovariance function between volatilityand levels, , decays in the manner of moving average weights of long-memory processes on suitable choiceof the b_j. We also establish the leverage property that h_t <0 for 0 < t k, where the value of k (which may be infinite)again depends on the b_j. Conditions for finiteness of thirdand higher moments of X_t are also established.     

Information Sharing and International Taxation: A Primer

The sharing between national tax authorities of taxpayer-specific information has emerged over the last few years as a—probably ‘the’—central issue on the international tax policy agenda. Yet this refocusing of the debate on international taxation—away from parametric tax coordination and towards strengthening information exchange—has gone largely unnoticed in the public finance literature. This paper gives an overview of this increasingly important area of international taxation, reviewing the key economic, legal, and practical concepts and issues bearing on the analysis and implementation of information exchange, and providing an account of recent policy initiatives and emerging theoretical insights. JEL Code: H77, H87, F42     

ECB: Relaxation of monetary policy called for

Conclusions Neither money supply trends nor other relevant indicators suggest that the target of price stability is under threat in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, it is questionable whether output and employment will soon experience a strong and self-sustaining upturn. In such a situation cuts in central bank rates are called for as a support measure to underpin economic growth.     

Corporate Transparency, Financial Development and the Allocation of Capital: Empirical Evidence

There is controversy regarding the role of financial development in promoting economic growth. Lucas (1988 ) suggests that the role of financial intermediation in economic growth has been very badly over-stressed in the popular and professional discussion. Levine et al . (2000 ), on the other hand, show that in a cross-country setting the exogenous component of financial intermediary development is positively and robustly linked to economic growth. Although empirical methodologies to investigate the finance-growth nexus have been refined, there is a lack of understanding about the exact mechanisms through which the financial system could affect economic performance in the real sector. Wurgler (2000 ) investigates one such mechanism of economic growth: whether capital is allocated efficiently. He then empirically shows that countries with well-developed financial architecture improve capital allocation. This article extends Wurgler (2000 ) by investigating the role of an important economic institution, the financial reporting system, on the efficiency of capital allocation. Financial reporting provides the primary source of independently verified information to the capital providers about the performance of managers and facilitates efficient resource allocation decisions. Results show that financial transparency is positively and significantly related to capital allocation efficiency. Further, this result holds after controlling for the impact of stock price synchronicity, state-owned enterprises and investor protection rights.     

Disability, Poverty, and Schooling in Developing Countries: Results from 14 Household Surveys

Analysis of 14 household surveys from 13 developing countriessuggests that 1–2 percent of the population have disabilities.Adults with disabilities typically live in poorer than averagehouseholds: disability is associated with about a 10 percentagepoint increase in the probability of falling in the two poorestquintiles. Much of the association appears to reflect lowereducational attainment among adults with disabilities. Peopleof ages 6–17 with disabilities do not live in systematicallywealthier or poorer households than other people of their age,although in all countries studied they are significantly lesslikely to start school or to be enrolled at the time of thesurvey. The order of magnitude of the school participation deficitassociated with disability—which is as high as 50 percentagepoints in 3 of the 13 countries—is often larger than deficitsrelated to other characteristics, such as gender, rural residence,or economic status differentials. The results suggest a worrisomevicious cycle of low schooling attainment and subsequent povertyamong people with disabilities in developing countries.     

Service Sector Protection: Considerations for Developing Countries

The inclusion of services in the Uruguay Round of multilateraltrade negotiations has focused attention on the protection ofdomestic service suppliers against competition from foreignsuppliers. Issues arising from these negotiations, however,may obscure another and more important issue: the case for unilateralliberalization. This article first surveys methods of protectionin the service sector, and then examines the likely cost ofprotection. Particular attention is given to developing countries.What evidence there is suggests that the costs of protectionmay be high. The article also discusses economic principlesthat could guide a review of policy toward international transactionsin the service sector. Quantitative restrictions or bans onforeign service suppliers—whether they wish to supplythrough trade or establishment—cannot easily be defendedin economic terms, and provide an obvious first target.     

Valuation before and after tax in the discrete time, finite state no arbitrage model

We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear taxation system to be neutral—within the multi-period discrete time “no arbitrage” model—in the sense that valuation is invariant to the exact sequence of tax rates, realization dates as well as immune to timing options attempting to twist the time profile of taxable income through wash sale transactions.

“In the study of investments, taxes are largely a source of embarrassment to financial economists.” (Introduction to Dybvig and Ross 1986) “Accordingly, my approach in this chapter is to examine the restrictions on the income measurement rules applicable to financial instruments implied by the requirement that the rules be linear. . . . Linearity is a desideratum of a tidy tax system.” (Bradford 2000, p. 373–374)

     

Evidence of the invisible: toward a credibility revolution in the empirical analysis of tax evasion and the informal economy

Empirical research about tax evasion and the informal economy has exploded in the past few decades, seeking to shed light on the magnitude and (especially policy) determinants of these phenomena. Quantitative information informs the analysis of policy choices, enables the testing of hypotheses about determinants of this phenomenon, and can help with the accurate construction of national income accounts. Even as empirical analysis has burgeoned, some have expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of some prominent measures. The fact that high-quality data is elusive is neither surprising nor a coincidence. The defining characteristic of tax evasion and informal economic activity—that they are generally illegal—often renders unreliable standard data collection methods such as surveys. Unlike invisible phenomena in the natural sciences, these invisible social science phenomena are hard to measure because of choices made by individuals. Analysis of tax evasion and the informal economy must proceed even in the absence of the direct observability of key variables, and theory should guide the construction and interpretation of evidence of the “invisible.” In this paper, we address what can be learned using micro or macro data regarding tax evasion and the informal economy under given conditions and assumptions, and critically review some of the most common empirical methods in light of our conclusions. We conclude with an entreaty for researchers in this field to enlist in the “credibility revolution” (Angrist and Pischke in J. Econ. Perspect. 4(2):3–30, 2010) in applied econometrics.     

Factors driving aggregate mortality rates in postwar Germany

Using German data over the period 1956–2006, this study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of factors driving aggregate mortality rates over time. It differs from previous contributions in this field by simultaneously considering an extensive set of macroeconomic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors as explanatory variables. Our regression analysis shows that sex- and age-specific mortality rates vary substantially in their response to external factors. Strongest associations are found with changes in real GDP, flu epidemics, and the two lifestyle variables—alcohol and cigarette consumption—in both univariate and multivariate setups. Further analysis indicates that these effects are primarily contemporary, whereas other indicators, such as weather conditions, exert lagged effects. We derive optimal multivariate models for every age group that provide a good fit to the observed variation in annual mortality rates, and thereby confirm the relevance of the identified factors.     

Discussion of “Are CEOs compensated for value destroying growth in earnings?”

This discussion provides several explanations for the evidence presented in Balachandran and Mohanram (2010) that are consistent with efficient contracting. I also show that—contrary to the suggestion of the title—CEOs do not benefit from value destroying growth in earnings. Finally, I argue that there is no conclusive evidence that corporate investments destroy value.     

Urbanization: the challenge for the next century

This article summarizes a new 1996-97 report from the World Resources Institute, the UN Environmental Program, the UN Development Program, and the World Bank, which describes a future with increased levels of urbanization that were reshaping the physical and social environment. Urbanization increased economic growth and environmental degradation. By the year 2000, 50% of the world population will live in urban areas. Cities are the center of economic activity. Consumption is the highest in cities. Cities produce the most pollution and waste. Three issues are particularly crucial to survival: the water supply, sanitation, and water resource management. Neglect of these and other environmental issues is likely to have important consequences in both developing and developed countries. The greatest growth in urban areas is occurring in developing countries. Cities in developing countries have huge populations living in poverty. The poor in either rural or urban areas are confronted with lack of access to clean water, to sanitation, and to housing. There is overcrowding and exposure to industrial wastes and air pollution. There is a need for policy reform, stronger institutions, and enlightened political leadership. Cities need to improve their environment and to strengthen local government and implement poverty reduction programs. Reform of urban policies must be accompanied by effective urban governance. Community-based approaches are essential. Broad-based support is needed for changes in strategies and practices and for attainment of a more sustainable environment.