机构投资者持股与企业短贷长投：抑制还是促进？

利用2007—2019年A股上市公司的年度数据,针对中国上市公司短贷长投这一现象,研究了机构投资者在其中发挥的作用。研究发现,机构投资者持股使得上市公司进行了更多的短贷长投,且该效应在非国有企业中更加明显。进一步研究发现,只有当机构投资者为非独立型机构投资者时,这种促进作用才显著,且机构投资者数量同样加剧了企业短贷长投。从短贷长投视角考察机构投资者对上市公司债务风险的影响,为治理上市公司短贷长投行为和进一步推动独立型机构投资者发展、完善机构投资者监管提供了参考。     

The impact of the early withdrawal option on time deposit pricing

Retail certificates of deposit contain an early withdrawal option allowing investors (depositors) to sell them back to banks in exchange for their face value less a prespecified withdrawal penalty. The Withdrawal Option Pricing Hypothesis posits that this put option is priced by banks and investors, suggesting that, ceteris paribus, CD yields will be lower than Treasury yields and that CD-Treasury yield spreads vary over time in ways predicted by option pricing theory. We show that yield spreads between five-year retail CDs of at least $90,000 and comparable maturity Treasuries are generally negative, despite reasons why CDs should provide higher yields than Treasuries. We also show that changes in the spread are negatively related to expected interest-rate levels (represented by the slope of the yield curve), negatively related to levels of interest rates (represented by the short-term riskless rate), and negatively related to expectations of interest-rate volatility (represented by implied volatility from exchange traded options).     

短期内机构投资者行为和股票价格的互作分析

研究短期内机构投资者行为与不同规模公司股价的相互影响.在机构投资者对股价的影响方面,阐释并论证了机构持股比例增量与当日股价的正相关关系,指出机构对大盘股的影响强于对小盘股的影响.机构资金流入(流出)的定性信息本身对股价上升(下降)有额外的促进作用;相对于撤资而言,股价对机构的注资行为更敏感;而对小盘股,该不对称性更加明显.此外,当日收益率和前三天内的机构资金流入存在负相关关系,且该种负关系在大盘股中的表现比在小盘股中更为明显.在股价对机构投资者行为的反馈作用方面,以实证结果阐明了股价上升(下降)的信息本身可对机构行为有缓冲作用,且该作用对小盘股影响大于对大盘股的影响.研究显示,在短期内机构更倾向于动量交易,这在小盘股中尤为明显.三天前收益率对当日机构行为的影响颇为明显,且与一天前的收益率的影响力相当;相对而言,两天前收益率对机构行为的影响不甚明显.     

Which institutional investors matter for firm survival and performance?

Using data that spans three decades, we assess the diverse roles of institutional investors in impacting survival and performance of chronically underperforming firms and contrast the results for consistently overperforming firms. We find material differences in investor roles and investment returns between these samples. Differentiating among institutional types, controlling for prior performance and attrition bias provides insights unattainable by examining aggregated holdings. For underperformers, results are negative for activist pension funds and long-term institutions, positive for activist hedge funds and short-term institutions, and mixed for institutional blockholders.     

Employee Shareholders Or Institutional Investors? When Corporate Managers Replace Their Stockholders*

During the past decade, the shares of publicly traded companies moved increasingly into the hands of institutional investors. As large investors pressed companies to restructure, companies were observed in turn to restructure their shareholder base. Drawing on a 1989 survey of 761 US publicly traded companies, firms facing a hostile takeover environment or with large institutional holdings are found to seek greater employee stockholding. Large firms and those that had adopted takeover defences are more likely when threatened with takeovers or short-term pressures to seek more employee and less institutional stockholding. Though managers are employed by owners, investor efforts to discipline their managers can lead the latter to replace the former.     

机构投资者与上市公司年报披露及时性的实证研究

我们运用Logit模型检验机构投资者持股量与上市公司年报披露时间差异之间的关系时发现,机构投资者促进了上市公司年报的及时披露。但是,机构投资者在促进上市公司年报及时披露的程度与整个证券市场环境相关。在证券市场整体牛市时,机构投资者似乎对上市公司年报披露是否提前并不产生影响,但是当股票市场整体处于熊市时,机构投资者对会计信息的需求愿望比较强烈,机构投资者持股量与上市公司提前披露年报显著正相关。这说明了机构投资者只是会计信息的外部使用者之一,机构投资者促进了上市公司年报及时披露,机构投资者没有降低信息披露的质量。     

Ownership structure,expectations, and short sales on the Nasdaq

We estimate expected short interest for Nasdaq stocks. Extending prior work, our research is among the first to investigate the impact of ownership structure on short-selling activity. We find that short interest is negatively related to institutional ownership and positively related to inside ownership; stocks with greater liquidity and smaller relative spreads are more heavily shorted. We also develop a measure of the unanticipated level of short selling; relative to the reported amount of short interest, this unexpected level of short selling seems at first to better represent the opinions of informed investors engaging in costly short-selling activities. However, the power of the unanticipated level of short-selling factor is displaced when we make allowances for traditional market, firm-size, and momentum variables.     

中小投资者利用财务预警辅助决策分析

我国证券市场还处于新生阶段,缺少相应的机构投资者,大多数投资者缺乏经济金融证券知识,很少人去关注基本面而是将注意力过分集中在短期的股价收益上,成为企业或某些大股东操纵圈钱的对象。基金也起不到稳定市场的作用,证券公司本身也成为短期主义者。本文从中小投资者的角度,探讨如何利用财务预警辅助投资,并试制定性分析表以供投资者降低其投资风险参考。     

Smart money or dumb money? A study on the selection ability of mutual fund investors in China

We examine investors’ mutual fund selection ability in China. Using actively managed equity mutual funds between 2005 and 2011, we find that Chinese investors generally have no mutual fund selection ability, a result contrary to the smart money effect in the United States. We show that mutual funds that receive more new money subsequently underperform significantly. The findings are robust to several risk-adjusted performance measures. The unique data of China provide separate accounts of institutional and individual investors’ new money flowing into and out of mutual funds, allowing us to examine the mutual fund selection ability of institutional and individual investors. We document that institutional investors exhibit a smart money effect, that is, they are able to move new money into (out of) future good (poor) performers. In contrast, individual investors exhibit a dumb money effect. Our results provide useful information for regulators to review their rules, especially for the protection of individual investors regarding mutual fund investing in China. In addition, we show that it is useful to distinguish institutional and individual investors in mutual fund research.     

机构投资者羊群行为动因分析——2009年数据实证

羊群行为作为机构投资者的一种普遍非理性行为,对我国的股票市场产生重大影响。羊群行为对短期股价波动会产生较大的影响,同时在一定程度上破坏股价的长期稳定。本文首先对羊群行为进行界定,然后旨在通过数据对证券投资基金的羊群行为进行实证,并分析其主要动因,最后针对其成因提出弱化机构投资者羊群行为的措施。     

Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?

We use data from the Wall Street Journal’s semi-annual survey of professional economists to test whether individual economists’ six-month-ahead predictions of real GDP growth, unemployment, short-term interest rates and inflation reflect Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule. We conclude the economists believe real growth is less responsive to unemployment-rate changes than the textbook version of Okun’s Law; we also find the economists believe the Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates by placing more weight on unemployment and less weight on inflation than the Taylor Rule prescribes.     

Local institutional shareholders and corporate hedging policies

This paper examines the effectiveness of monitoring function from institutional investors on corporate hedging strategy in Taiwan over the period from 2005 to 2012. The empirical results show that institutional investors are effective monitors of corporate risk management to enhance the probability and extent of hedging. In addition, the monitoring function from institutional investors is effective for mitigating the risk-shifting problem of high leveraged firms. Moreover, local institutional investors play more important role in monitoring distressed firm's magnitude of hedging than foreign institutional investors. These results are robust to the consideration of endogeneity, selection bias, and industrial difference. This is the first empirical evidence in the literature regarding the monitoring effect of institutional investors on risk management strategy from the angle of monitoring costs.     

Information asymmetry,sentiment interactions,and asset price

We develop an asset pricing model with sentiment interactions between institutional and individual investors under the condition of information asymmetry. Our model considers private information and investor sentiment, two imperfections in securities markets, and integrates them into a theoretical model to investigate the role of the interaction between information asymmetry and investor sentiment in asset pricing. We show that the joint effect of private information and investor sentiment deviate the price of risky assets and efficiently explains anomalies in the stock market. Investor sentiment changes the effect of information on the equilibrium price relative to a world where all investors are completely rational. Private information changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price in comparison with a scenario with symmetric market information. In addition, the individual investors’ learning and the disclosure of information both allow private information to be better integrated into the price and simultaneously changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price.     

Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates

The expectations hypothesis implies that the yield curve provides information on the future change in the short-term interest rate. However, transaction costs exist in the financial market, which prevent investors from realizing the arbitrage opportunity, when the arbitrage does not fully cover the transaction costs. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of transaction costs on the predictability of the term structure by using the threshold vector error correction model, which allows for the nonlinear adjustment to the long-run equilibrium relationship. A significant amount of threshold effect is found, and the adjustment coefficients are regime-dependent. The empirical result supports the nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates.     

Institutional investors’ ownership stability and their investee firms’ equity mispricing

This study examines the impact of institutional investors' equity ownership stability and their investment horizon to determine the impact on their investee firms' equity mispricing. Mispricing represents the difference between a firm’s market and fundamental values. We treat institutional investors as a heterogenous group, i.e., dedicated, transient, or quasi-indexer as defined by Bushee, 1998, Bushee, 2001 since their categorization determines their trading strategy. Higher institutional ownership, higher stability in institutional investors' equity ownership, and institutional investors classified as long-term are all associated with lower equity mispricing at investee firms.     

Do institutional investors monitor management? Evidence from the relationship between institutional ownership and capital structure

We examine the dynamic relations between institutional ownership and a firm's capital structure. We find that a firm's leverage decreases when institutional ownership increases. This result implies that a firm reduces its debt level as institutional investors substitute for the monitoring role of debt. More importantly, we find that a firm's suboptimal leverage decreases when the institutional ownership increases, and institutional ownership decreases when a firm's suboptimal leverage increases. This finding shows that institutions not only effectively monitor a firm's capital structure but they also passively sell their shares when dissatisfied with it. In addition, we find that the monitoring evidence on a firm's leverage and suboptimal leverage are more pronounced when the institutional investors are less likely to have business relationships with a firm or the information asymmetry is high in the market.     

投资者监督、政府干预与企业价值——基于机构投资者的经验证据

文章通过模型证明大投资者(Blockholders)与个人投资者相比对上市公司实施更多的监督,并且大投资者的监督行为能够增加企业价值;但模型也表明机构投资者是否实施监督及其为企业带来的价值增量取决于监督的成本和收益。文章利用中国资本市场的机构投资者数据,检验了理论模型的四个基本结论。结果表明:机构投资者比个人投资者更积极地监督上市公司,并有助于提高企业价值;政府干预(用上市公司最终控制人为政府代表)减少了机构投资者监督的收益,降低了机构投资者对企业价值所起到的正面作用,削弱了机构投资者监督的积极性。研究结论表明,发展机构投资者有助于改善上市公司的治理水平,提升企业价值;但是政府干预限制了机构投资者的积极公司治理作用。     

Net treasury borrowing and interest-rate changes

As noted by Arora and Dua (1993, 1995), studies investigating the relationship between budget deficits and short-term interest rates have generated inconsistent results. This study performs Granger causality tests on four short-term interest rates using changes instead of level measures. In lieu of deficit, the level of net treasury borrowing will serve as thex variable.     

Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

Demographics and the long-horizon returns of dividend-yield strategies

This paper investigates the relationship between demographic changes and the long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies. We hypothesise that in a world where components of wealth are mentally treated as being non-fungible, the preference for high dividend-paying stocks by older investors means that the excess returns of high dividend-yielding stocks, relative to other stocks, should be positively related to demographic clientele variation. In particular, we find that, consistent with the behavioural life-cycle hypothesis, long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies are positively driven by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the Fama–French factors, inflation rate, consumption growth rate, interest rates, tax clienteles, time trend and alternative definitions of both dividend-yield strategies and demographic variation.