The deterrence hypothesis revisited

This study explores the causes of crime and the differences in deterrent effects of policing on crimes among rural, suburban, and urban communities. We hypothesize that certain numbers of all crimes are unaffected by policing due to their high net return; policing deters only marginal crimes. That is, unlike other research efforts, we recognize that there is a level of crime indigenous to a given type of community about which little can be done, although a particular community can affect deviations from this level. By introducing this ‘natural rate' of crime we are able to empirically reveal the deterrence effect of police expenditures upon all types of property crimes except robberies. The study analyzes 230 communities in a system of six simultaneous equations, using police, crime, and other socio-economic variables. The model can be used by state and regional policy-makers to more effectively allocate resources to the different types of communities under their jurisdiction and among the various police functions designed to deter specific types of crime.     

The effect of spatiotemporal resolution on predictive policing model performance

Being able to anticipate crime such that new crime events can be dealt with effectively or prevented entirely, leads police forces worldwide to look at applying predictive policing, which provides predictions of times and places at risk for crime, such that proactive preventative measures can be taken. Ideally, predictive policing models predict crime at a high spatio-temporal level, while also providing optimal prediction performance. The main objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the impact of varying grid resolution, temporal resolution and historical time frame on prediction performance. To investigate this, we analyse home burglary data from a large city in Belgium and predict new crime events using a range of parameter values, comparing the resulting prediction performances. Given the potential prediction performance costs associated with prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution, consideration should be given to balance practical requirements with performance requirements.     

THE 'BROKEN WINDOWS' THEORY AND THE NEW YORK EXPERIENCE RECONSIDERED

The undeniable success of order-maintenance policing (also community policing or broken windows policing) is despite the deficiency in the theory which propelled the practice into policy: Wilson and Kelling's broken windows theory. We discuss what is wrong with the theory and why it nevertheless works when put into practice.     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

Economies of scale and market power in policing

The objective of this paper is to use a simultaneous equations method for estimating police production and demand to determine whether or not there are economies of scale in policing. In addition, the effect of market power on productivity, using the Herfindahl–Hirschmann Index, is to be measured. The estimation yields the result that there are diseconomies of scale with respect to the amount of crime beyond about 22 000 people in the policing jurisdiction and diseconomies of scale in numbers of police beyond about 36 000 people. Efficiency is also reduced where there is greater market power. This is conjectured to be the public sector equivalent of taking market power profits. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in Chicago

Crime hotspot maps are a widely used and successful method of displaying spatial crime patterns and allocating police resources. However, hotspot maps are often created over a single timescale using only one crime type. In the case of short-term hotspot maps that utilize several weeks of crime data, risk estimates suffer from a high variance, especially for low frequency crimes such as homicide. Long-term hotspot maps that utilize several years of data fail to take into account near-repeat effects and emerging hotspot trends. In this paper we show how point process models of crime can be extended to include leading indicator crime types, while capturing both short-term and long-term patterns of risk, through a marked point process approach. Several years of data and many different crime types are systematically combined to yield accurate hotspot maps that can be used for the purpose of predictive policing of gun-related crime. We apply the methodology to a large, open source data set which has been made available to the general public online by the Chicago Police Department.     

POLICING IN THE UK AND USA: A BRIEF COMPARISON

The relative advantages and disadvantages of approaches to policing in the UK and USA can be traced back to their different methods of funding and organisation. However, in both cases, the community role is essential for the future of successful policing.     

POLICING FOR THE PEOPLE

Increased spending on law and order over the last decade has not been matched by reductions in crime. The government's claim to have reduced crime does not reflect reality and the public know this. The way to rebuild public confidence and tackle crime is to put more police officers back on the streets. This article argues that in order to do this, four key reforms of the police are needed: a reduction in bureaucracy and central intervention; greater accountability to local communities; more co-operation between forces; and the modernisation of working practices.     

A PEOPLE'S POLICE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: A REPLY TO BLUNDELL

John Blundell's ideas for structural change could undermine the strengths of British policing. Nevertheless, there is a need for decentralisation and more local control.     

THE FUNDING OF TRADITIONAL ORGANISED CRIME IN RUSSIA

The changed economic and political situation in Russia since the 1990s brought about a qualitative transformation of Russian organised crime, particularly in organisational and behavioural patterns. In particular, a pronounced shift from violent crime towards economic crime is being observed. Criminals try to establish and exercise control over legitimate businesses via corrupt politicians, local authorities and/or law enforcement officials. A tendency towards the consolidation of criminal groups within given territories is also discernible, whilst there are signs of increased interregional integration among different criminal organisations.     

DIGITAL MEDIA AND THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME

Digital crime is an area where the application of the economics of crime is complex. In a nutshell, the essential economic problem of digi-crime is the impact of technological progress making transactions costs of enforcement potentially too high, partly because of the low costs of copyright infringement due to technological advance, for there to be substantial amounts of deterrence from punishment.     

THE RECENT REGULATORY RESPONSE TO CORPORATE ECONOMIC CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES: OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS

Corporate economic crime, including accounting and auditing fraud and inappropriate behaviour by directors on the boards of US corporations, has resulted in stockholder financial losses and the loss of confidence in investing in the US stock market. We observe the modern corporation with its absentee ownership and professional management team and discuss its inherent incentives to commit management crime. In spite of financial reporting, audits and the use of boards of directors to represent stockholders, management misbehaviour persists. We conclude that the failure of these potential remedies is due to a lack of independence from management in their execution. We comment on some of the provisions of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, enacted in 2002, and their potential to mitigate some of these conflict of interest conditions.     

THE PREVENTION OF FINANCIAL CRIME WITHIN AN ISLAMIC LEGAL FRAMEWORK1

The risks associated with financial crime threaten to undermine the stability of the international financial system. This paper explores the Islamic legal approach to the prevention of financial crime and how this can be integrated into international regulatory frameworks.     

Global Best Practice or Regulating Fiction? Street Vending,Zero Tolerance and Conflicts Over Public Space in New York, 1980–2000

In global urban studies, different cities often serve as stand‐ins for various policy approaches. New York is closely associated with zero tolerance/quality of life policing—specifically the ways this crime‐fighting technique was used to manage and regulate public space in support of broader urban redevelopment goals. Whether celebrated or criticized, the image of New York as a city that was successful in ‘cleaning up’ public space has been exported across the globe, and has been invoked by a number of cities as they embark on their own projects to clear street vendors and other unwanted actors from public space. This article will challenge this established narrative through an examination of struggles over street vending and public space in New York during the 1980s and 1990s. It will show how the revanchist project of public space management was challenged and ultimately limited by vendors using discourses of free market populism and entrepreneurship. It demonstrates the ways in which the image of New York as a city of settled and well‐regulated public space does not tell the complete story, and how New York, like many other ordinary cities across the globe, is a city of contested spaces and uncertain regulatory effectiveness.     

Contested Development: Homeless Property,Police Reform,and Resistance in Skid Row,LA

Since the late 1990s, Downtown Los Angeles’ Skid Row has undergone private and state‐sanctioned policing practices within the fifty‐block neighborhood. These policing practices are fueled by increased commercial and real‐estate development to dispossess and contain the mostly Black homeless and housed residents. Grassroots organizations and residents have responded to gentrification‐induced policing by claiming a homeless right to property, transforming neighborhood politics. This article examines these neighborhood politics as a process of contested development. Contested development reveals the push‐and‐pull contradictions that occur when spatial difference is challenged and reproduced. Through the sphere of urban property, the contested development of property in Skid Row restores or resists the generation of spatial difference. In so doing, the claims of homeless residents and grassroots organizations to a right to property engender transformative police reforms while at the same time igniting revanchist policing methods.     

The impact of management on the engagement and well-being of high emotional labour employees

Australia, like many other countries, suffers high turnover of nurses and police officers. Contributions to effectively manage the turnover challenge have been called for, and there are few Australian studies of nursing/policing turnover intentions. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of supervisor–subordinate relationships and perceived organisational support (POS) upon engagement, well-being, organisational commitment and turnover intentions. Second, we examined the similarities and differences between nursing and policing work contexts. The retention of nurses/police has been investigated from traditional management perspectives; however, we used a different theoretical approach – social exchange theory – and evaluated its utility as a framework. Findings are from Australian data collected during 2010–2011 from 510 nurses and 193 police officers, using a survey-based, self-report strategy. Partial least squares path modelling was used to analyse these data. Results indicated that for both samples, engagement predicts well-being and then, well-being predicts affective commitment and intentions to leave. MANOVA results suggested that nurses had significantly higher levels of satisfaction with their supervisor–subordinate relationships, POS, engagement, well-being and affective commitment than police officers. Only the intention to leave was similar for both groups. Given that turnover can be influenced by supervisors/management, this study provides new knowledge about targeted retention strategies.     

Bridging “quality” and “quantity” in the study of criminal action

This article summarises the main findings of a study on the narrative construction of deviant actions which focused both on the contents and the structures of the narrative accounts provided by criminals. The research was conducted by collecting narrative interviews. These involved 34 individuals detained in two penal institutions in Rome. These accounts are typically constructed in a non-investigative context. Their exploration is mainly qualitative, but our aim here concern the quantitative sight of qualitative data and viceversa. The project was focused to find if there are any differences in the narrative accounts provided by different offenders, classified according to the type of crime they committed and their experience in the area of deviance. All interviews were analysed using a qualitative data analysis software and taking the “Evaluation model” as a reference. Participants were divided into three groups according to their criminal experience and into four groups according to the crime they committed. The results show that there are important differences in the way a crime is reconstructed by offenders with different criminal history. The paper also proposes solutions and innovative strategies to deal with quantification and qualitative data.     

论网络犯罪及其防治对策

网络犯罪是现代社会的一种新型犯罪,它包括以网络为对象的犯罪和以网络为犯罪现场的犯罪。它具有技术含量高、危害程度重、涉及面广、隐蔽性强等特征。因此,打击该种犯罪,要完善法律法规,加强网络犯罪立法的国际协调与合作。     

A TIP OF THE ICEBERG? THE PROBABILITY OF CATCHING CARTELS

Reliable estimates of crime detection probabilities could help in designing better sanctions and improve our understanding of the efficiency of law enforcement. For cartels, we only have limited knowledge on the rate at which these illegal practices are discovered. In comparison to previous works, this paper offers a more parsimonious and simple‐to‐use method to estimate time‐dependent cartel discovery rates, while allowing for heterogeneity across firms. It draws on capture–recapture methods that are frequently used in ecology to make inferences on various wildlife population characteristics. An application of this method provides evidence that less than a fifth of cartelising firms are discovered. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying crime generators and spatially overlapping high-risk areas through a nonlinear model: A comparison between three cities of the Valencian region (Spain)

The behavior and spatial distribution of crime events can be explained through the characterization of an area in terms of its demography, socioeconomy, and built environment. In particular, recent studies on the incidence of crime in a city have focused on the identification of features of the built environment (specific places or facilities) that may increase crime risk within a certain radius. However, it is hard to identify environmental characteristics that consistently explain crime occurrence across cities and crime types. This article focuses on the assessment of the effect that certain types of places have on the incidence of property crime, robbery, and vandalism in three cities of the Valencian region (Spain): Alicante, Castellon, and Valencia. A nonlinear effects model is used to identify such places and to construct a risk map over the three cities considering the three crime types under research. The results obtained suggest that there are remarkable differences across cities and crime types in terms of the types of places associated with crime outcomes. The identification of high-risk areas allows verifying that crime is highly concentrated, and also that there is a high level of spatial overlap between the high-risk areas corresponding to different crime types.