全球金融危机下的人民币国际化

全球金融危机阴云弥漫,现行美元本位的国际货币体系的弊端再次引发了人们的思考。事实告诉我们,建立在单一主权国家货币基础上的国际货币体系已经不再适应世界金融经济的发展。接连召开的G20华盛顿金融峰会和伦敦金融峰会以及后续的金融峰会,国际货币体系改革已经并将继续成为重要的议题。一直遵循"韬光养晦、不出头"外交政策的中国这次终于在G20伦敦峰会之前提出了建立超主权国际储备货币的构想而变得"有所作为"了。这与正在推进的人民币国际化是什么关系?国际货币体系改革是否给人民币的国际化提供了某种机遇?这种背景下加快人民币国际化进程是否恰当?还存在那些掣肘的因素?人民币国际化如何巧妙地与区域货币合作和国际货币体系改革很好地结合?本期银行家论坛邀请到几位著名的国际金融问题专家,为我们解读国际货币体系改革人民币国际化的相关问题。     

全球流动性过剩的根源与风险

2007年,不断加剧的全球流动性过剩成为经济学家和国际机构高度关注的热点问题,与之相关的全球资产价格上涨和金融市场泡沫已经成为当前世界经济面临的最大风险。追溯全球流动性过剩的根源,主要是美元泛滥导致的美国投资一储蓄缺口不断放大,以经常项目持续逆差为表现的国际收支失衡日趋严重。在美元作为主导货币的国际货币体系下,其他国家基础货币的被动投放导致了全球性的货币泛滥,加上各种金融创新推波助浪,全球流动性过剩就不可避免地出现了。     

全球金融危机下对国际货币体系的审视与展望

经济全球化条件下,美国金融危机经由世界货币美元传递发展为全球性金融危机.由于特里芬难题的存在和美元发行约束机制的缺乏,美元本位制对世界经济发展的作用呈递减效应,并使全球经济与美国高度联动.未来国际货币体系将呈现多极化、货币区域化、竞争化的特征.国际货币体系调整的本质是比较经济优势变化下世界政治格局的变革.     

全球宏观经济金融变革的四大趋势

上世纪70年代以来,全球宏观经济金融环境与制度发生了深刻变革：一是各国货币当局在经历了长达半个多世纪与通货膨胀的角力之后,货币稳定机制在全球范围内得以确立,与此同时,金融危机频发又使金融不稳定代替货币不稳定成为政策部门关注的焦点.二是在金融全球化、自由化和一体化浪潮席卷全球的大背景下,信息技术与金融理论相互融合不断催生金融创新与金融革命,从而引发全球金融体系结构大调整.三是牙买加体系对于布雷顿森林体系的替代,并未有效解决国际货币体系的内生缺陷,反而成为全球经济金融大背离的“罪魁祸首”.     

通货膨胀阴影蔓延全球 金融动荡预警新兴经济

今年以来,全球经济增长略好于预期,但仍有“滞胀”阴影。以油价粮价上涨为标志,显示通货膨胀正在全球卷土重来。而发达经济体的金融调整仍有待时日,新兴经济体则出现新的金融动荡。这种国际经济形势的变化,要求发达国家应当对国际经济局势和国际货币体系的稳定承担应尽的国际义务,尤其是美国不能放任弱势美元。     

金融衍生品、美元本位制与全球金融危机

这次由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机的直接原因是金融衍生品的泛滥和传递,其根本原因则是以美元本位体制和浮动汇率制为核心的全球金融制度安排,或者说是国际货币体系内在缺陷的结果.因此,当前需要约束美元霸权行为,对国际货币体系进行改革和重构;打破美元的垄断地位,推动实现国际货币的多元化;完善IMF的治理结构和SDR的机制,使IMF最终充当世界中央银行,SDR成为统一的世界货币.     

全球本币金融产品市场最新发展及对人民币国际化的启示

本文深入研究了后金融危机时代国际多元货币格局下全球本币金融产品市场的最新发展态势,剖析了美元、欧元和日元三大货币产品的消长变化,揭示了全球经济金融化加速、直接金融产品地位上升、金融衍生品市场复苏势头明显和离岸金融市场地位下降等金融市场最新趋势,对于前瞻性地确定人民币在未来国际地位和积极推动人民币产品市场建设具有重要意义。     

全球本币金融产品市场最新发展及对人民币国际化的启示

本文深入研究了后金融危机时代国际多元货币格局下全球本币金融产品市场的最新发展态势,剖析了美元、欧元和日元三大货币产品的消长变化,揭示了全球经济金融化加速、直接金融产品地位上升、金融衍生品市场复苏势头明显和离岸金融市场地位下降等金融市场最新趋势,对于前瞻性地确定人民币在未来国际地位和积极推动人民币产品市场建设具有重要意义。     

为什么美元一贬再贬却没有引发全球金融动荡

从2001年下半年以来，美元对主要国际货币的汇率急剧下跌。但有趣的是，美国经济仍然在2004年实现了强劲的复苏，全球金融体系似乎也并未陷入急剧的动荡。那么，为什么美元一贬再贬却没有造成全球金融动荡?     

当代国际货币体系运行的理论框架、模式和面临的风险

随着美国次贷危机逐渐演变成全球经济金融危机,对以美元为本位的国际货币体系是否能够持续的讨论十分热烈。本文结合当前国际经济金融形势,从美国经济结构的潜在转型和美国金融体系的系统性风险两方面,深入探讨了当代国际货币体系的运行模式及其面临的风险,并对国际货币体系的未来进行了简要讨论。     

国际货币体系改革方向及其相关机制

当前的国际金融危机促进了改革国际货币体系的讨论,而对超主权国际储备货币与多元化国际货币体系的改革目标的讨论需要深化对相关机制的研究。本文分析了超主权国际储备货币的必要条件和特别提款权的缺陷及改革的复杂性,提出将多元化的国际货币体系作为现实选择,认为美元、欧元与亚洲关键货币将成为多元化国际货币体系的核心;推行多元化的国际货币体系也需完善国际汇率协调机制,对美元发行应建立国际制衡机制。     

国际货币制度变迁的系统相容性分析

从系统相容性的角度分析国际货币制度变迁的百年历史 ,为关于国际货币制度的探讨提供了一个新的视角和平台。迄今为止的国际货币制度采取的形式都位于相容性模型的解集中。当系统的不相容性累计到一定程度之后 ,系统均衡被打破 ,货币金融危机频仍 ,新的系统则应运而生。实物本位终将为信用本位所取代 ,货币本位的虚拟化不可避免。全球化背景下浮动汇率制将以货币联盟的形式向固定汇率制复归。国际货币制度的最终演进方向是全球统一货币     

Central bank digital currencies and the international payment system: The demise of the US dollar?

The international monetary system is marked by a hierarchical relationship between currencies, where the US dollar is widely used. Recently, central banks have started to launch Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which, in contrast to cryptocurrencies, are issued by monetary authorities. The purpose of this paper is (i) to analyse and explain domestic retail CBDCs in detail, and (ii) to assess whether the creation of CBDCs poses a threat to the US dollar as the key currency of the international monetary and financial system. It will be argued that, despite the innovations a CBDC may bring, the role of the US dollar will not be affected by the introduction of multiple CBDCs (mCBDCs) alone. Although mCBDC arrangements might decentralise the international payment system, the underlying structures supporting today's unipolar system would not automatically change. It is crucial that central banks work together to establish an alternative international monetary system.     

International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on country-specific monthly financial stress indices (FSIs) over the sample period 1970–2012 for 20 major economies. First, we show that co-movement between the FSIs increases during major financial crises and towards the end of our sample period. Second, we show that the risk of large financial stress spillovers to an economy increases with its level of economic openness. Third, we show – using a global VAR (GVAR) model – that (i) a financial stress shock in the US quickly transmits internationally, (ii) financial stress shocks have lagged but persistent negative effects on economic activity, and (iii) that a negative US demand shock induces only limited financial stress on a global scale. Finally, we show that spillovers of financial stress run mainly from advanced to emerging economies and not in the opposite direction.     

Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas

With the acceleration of global energy transition and financialization, intense climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation have significant impacts on the global energy market. This paper uses TVP-VAR-SV models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty (CPU), financial speculation, economic activity, and US dollar exchange rate on global prices of crude oil and natural gas respectively, and then compare the time-varying response of oil prices and gas prices to six representative CPU peaks. The results show that responses of energy prices to various shocks have significant nonlinear effects: the time-varying effect of CPU on energy prices from positive to negative over time is significant, and financial speculation has the opposite effects on oil and gas prices. The effect from economic activity is mainly positive, while the effects of US dollar exchange are negative and stable. These results provide important implications for policymakers and investors dealing with high levels of climate policy uncertainty, financial speculation, and global economic activity.     

国际储备货币演变的计量分析研究——兼论人民币国际化的可行性

美国次贷危机的爆发及中国经济的迅速崛起引起了世人对国际货币体系前景的重新构思,该过程中人民币国际化问题也越来越成为学术界关注的焦点。本文从实证的角度对目前国际储备币种构成的历史演变(1980-2008年)进行了计量分析,尝试从更加规范的角度探讨货币国际化的内在影响因素,及其影响程度的大小。本文的研究结果表明,一国的经济总量、进出口总量、金融市场是影响该国货币在国际储备中占比的基础性因素,同时还受到通货膨胀率、汇率水平等等因素的影响。本文进一步根据实证分析的结论将中国与国际货币国家(如美国、日本、德国等)的经济状况进行了分析比较,并得出人民币已经初步具备国际化条件的结论。     

The role of a crisis in reshaping the role of accounting

Prior to 2001, international accounting standards (IAS) were insufficiently attractive to gain the support of US regulators. The potential role of IAS in the US gained prominence during a period of extreme financial reporting instability in 2001–2002. Emerging opinion increasingly upheld principles-based rather than rules-based accounting standards in the face of the financial reporting crisis. But to promote any active shift in the US position, an institutionally legitimate infrastructure for the international accounting standards setter had to be created. As this was taking shape, the globalisation of business activities grew with inter-organizational linkages and cross-national financial inter-dependencies and flows becoming increasingly complex. Given the extensively uncertain, uneven and constantly evolving nature of global business changes, the aptness of applying judgment in assessing financial performance and position rather than relying on the application of pre-defined rules continued to achieve wider acceptance. The argument is made in the paper that international financial reporting standards are today seen to fulfil a global risk mitigating role founded on a logic that had to first gain political and institutional legitimacy and that also had to be viewed as being responsive to perceived market imperatives.     

Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia

In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high-yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role.     

未来20年国际金融格局演进的推动因素与新特征

肇始于美国的全球金融危机凸显旧有国际金融秩序的弊端,并加快了全球经济重心格局的演变,势必对未来国际金融格局产生重大影响。该文指出,受全球经济重心转移、全球化浪潮、人口老龄化差异以及技术革命推动金融周期演变这四大主要因素的推动,未来10～20年国际金融格局的新特征主要表现在：国际金融力量对比、国际移民与金融资本流动的模式将发生新变化;在金融业发展新周期中,银行业进入平稳发展阶段。     

An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD,US and the UK

This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models the economy and financial markets jointly using both types of data to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies as well as the US Treasury bond market using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a US real interest rate factor. We find strong evidence of global effects on both the US and UK, calling into question the standard closed economy macro-finance specification. These economic linkages also help to explain the co-movement of yields in the US and UK Treasury bond markets.