瑞士一日：从卢塞恩到英特拉肯

有人说，瑞士是欧洲的花园；也有人说，瑞士是全世界最适合人类居住的美境。早就向往着一睹瑞士的芳容，终于在这个冬天成行了。飞机降落之前，从窗口望出去，已经是一幅雪国图画了。一路游来，日内瓦湖的清澈湛蓝果然名不虚传；连绵不绝的阿尔卑斯山脉和山下的草场、牛群、农舍所组成的图画也无愧于欧洲第一山的美名。     

One day in the life of a very common stock

Using the model structure of Easley and O'Hara (Journal of Finance,47, 577-604), we demonstrate how the parameters of the market-maker'sbeliefs can be estimated from trade data. We show how to extractinformation from both trade and no-trade intervals, and howintraday and interday data provide information. We derive andevaluate tests of model specification and estimate the informationcontent of differential trade sizes. Our work provides a frameworkfor testing extant microstructure models, shows how to extractthe information contained in the trading process, and demonstratesthe empirical importance of symmetric information models forasset prices.     

Feasible momentum strategies: Evidence from the Swiss stock market

While there is little controversy on the profitability of momentum strategies, their implementation is afflicted with many difficulties. Most important, chasing momentum can generate high turnover. Though there are already several attempts to make momentum strategies less expensive with respect to transaction costs, we go a step further in the simplification of momentum strategies. By restricting our sample to Switzerland’s largest blue-chip stocks and choosing only one winner and one loser stock, we find average returns to our momentum arbitrage portfolios of up to 44% p.a. depending on the formation and holding periods. While unconditional risk models are at odds with momentum profits, stock market predictability and time-varying expected returns explain a large part of the momentum payoffs, including the post-holding period behavior of the winner and loser stocks (overreaction and subsequent price correction).

The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders

Using proprietary account-level transaction data in the futures market where day traders are self-declared ex ante, this study investigates whether day traders enhance price discovery at the market level. From a natural classification of day traders, we find that heterogeneous day traders have differential effects on price discovery. Self-declared day traders, who benefit from low margin requirement, do not improve price discovery measured by information share. In contrast, non-declared traders, who are not self-declared as day traders, improve price discovery. Their positive impacts on price discovery are particularly significant during periods of high volatility and arrival of new information. Overall, a margin stimulating policy may encourage more day trading, but may also attract overconfident investors, especially inexperienced ones, and who do not enhance price discovery.     

Expiration day effects and market manipulation: evidence from Taiwan

In this study, we analyze the expiration day effects of index futures on the cash market in Taiwan, and find that both volatility and trading volume are higher on the final settlement days than on other trading days. We also calculate the volume of open interest for the final settlement of index futures contracts relating to different classes of traders, as well as the profits they earn from their open interest positions. We find that proprietary traders exhibit superior performance whereas foreign investors achieve the worst returns. Our empirical results support the view that the expiration day effects in the Taiwan futures market are at least partially attributable to attempts at ‘marking the close’.     

Underpricing of Newly Issued Bonds: Evidence from the Swiss Capital Market

The pricing of newly issued bonds on the Swiss capital market is investigated over the years 1980–1982. The results reveal a slight underpricing of new bonds at the issue date that is roughly equal to the difference in transactions costs between the markets for new and seasoned bonds. Underpricing is no longer observed when the new bonds start to be traded on the stock exchange, that is, after about two days. Tests of several hypotheses show that unexpected changes in interest rates over the offering period explain part of the underpricing.     

Overconfident individual day traders: Evidence from the Taiwan futures market

A specific day-trading policy in Taiwan futures market allows an investigation of the performance of day traders. Since October 2007, investors who characterize themselves as “day traders” by closing their day-trade positions on the same day enjoy a 50% reduction in the initial margin. Because we can identify day traders ex ante, we have a laboratory to explore trading behavior without the contamination of potential behavioral biases. Our results show that the 3470 individual day traders in the sample incur on average a significant loss of 61,500 (26,700) New Taiwan dollars after (before) transaction costs over October 2007–September 2008. This implies that day traders are not only overconfident about the accuracy of their information but also biased in their interpretations of information. We also find that excessive trading is hazardous only to the overconfident losers, but not to the winners. Last, we provide evidence that more experienced individual investors exhibit more aggressive day trading behavior, although they do not learn their types or gain superior trading skills that could mitigate their losses.     

Trading volume with private valuation: evidence from the ex-dividend day

We test a theory of the interaction between investors' heterogeneity,risk, transaction costs, and trading volume. We take advantageof the specific nature of trading motives around the distributionof cash dividends, namely the costly trading of tax shields.Consistent with the theory, we show that when trades occur becauseof differential valuation of cash flows, an increase in riskor transaction costs reduces volume. We also show that the nonsystematicrisk plays a significant role in determining the volume of trade.Finally, we demonstrate that trading volume is positively relatedto the degree of heterogeneity and the incentives of the variousgroups to engage in trading.