Monetary policy and inventory investment in Greek manufacturing industry

The paper reports an attempt to estimate the role of Greek monetary policy in inventory investment in manufacturing. Interest and inflation rate expectations exercise a significant influence. Expected fluctations in the exchange rate, for the first time examined, are of major importance especially for stocks of raw materials which are mostly imported. Being strongly affected by monetary variables, inventory investment can play a major role as a transmission channel of monetary policy changes to the Greek economy.     

Non‐linearities,Business Cycles and Exchange Rates

This paper conjoins the disparate empirical literatures on exchange rate models and monetary policy models, with special reference to the importance of output, inflation gaps and exchange rate targets. It focuses in on the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the differential results arising from using alternative measures of the output gap for the US and for the Euro area. A comparison of ‘in‐sample’ prediction against alternative models of exchange rates is also conducted. In addition to predictive power, I also assess the various models' plausibility as economic explanations for exchange rate movements, based on the conformity of coefficient estimates with priors. Taylor rule fundamentals appear to do as well, or better, than other models at the 1‐year horizon.     

Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in the Spanish economy

As the Spanish economy gets more integrated in international markets, the real exchange rate becomes a key determinant of the monetary transmission. In this paper we trace out the dynamic response of prices, output and the exchange rate following a monetary policy shock. We estimate a structural VAR model whose identification scheme is based on the long run properties common to a large class of models. The results suggest that a small model with efficient asset markets plus nominal inertia and long run monetary neutrality, captures the essential features of the monetary transmission mechanism in Spain. The interest rate shock is well identified and the exchange rate overshoots its long run value. There are no signs of liquidity puzzle nor of price puzzle or exchange rate puzzle either.     

Exchange Rates,Expectations, and Monetary Policy: a NOEM Perspective*

We use a dynamic general‐equilibrium optimizing two‐country model to analyze how the formation of exchange rate expectations shapes the effects of a monetary policy shock in an open economy. We also provide empirical evidence on how traders in foreign exchange markets form exchange rate expectations. Our model implies that the short‐run output effect of a permanent monetary policy shock diminishes if “technical traders” form the type of regressive exchange rate expectations we find in our empirical analysis. If the influence of technical traders is strong enough, a permanent expansionary monetary policy shock can result in a temporary decline of the output in the country in which it takes place. The output effect of a temporary monetary policy shock is magnified when technical traders form regressive exchange rate expectations.     

IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF SIMULTANEOUS MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)     

Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for the Greek Drachma

This paper presents exchange market pressure and intervention indices than can be applied as tools for policy analysis in the case of Greece. A small open economy model is presented that helps to assess Greek exchange rate policy, within a framework characterized for a strong preference to eliminate excessive exchange rate volatility to meet the Maastricht criteria of low inflation and a fixed domestic currency. [F31]     

Monetary shocks,exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries

This paper investigates the relationship among monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and trade balances in five Inflation Targeting Countries (ITCs). The investigation is based on Structural Vector Error Correction Models (SVECMs) with long run and short run restrictions. The findings reveal that a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to a decrease in price level, a decrease in output, an appreciation in exchange rate, and an improvement in trade balance in the very short run. Our findings contradict the findings of price, output, exchange rate and trade puzzles that have been found in many empirical studies. Furthermore they are consistent with the theoretical expectations regarding the effect of a contractionary policy. The only long run restriction that we imposed on our models is that money does not affect real macroeconomic variables in the long run, which is consistent with both Keynesian and monetarist approaches.     

A model of exchange rate policy: evidence for the US dollar–Greek drachma rate 1975–87

This paper represents an attempt to model movements of the exchange rate between the US dollar and Greek drachma. A stuctural model is set up, and then a reduced-form error correction(EC) speicifcation is derived. On the basis of co-integration test, the results do not support the existence of al long-run equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and price differential. Furthermore, the instrumental variable estimation of the EC model indicates that the monetary authorities have pursued a short-run anti-inflationary exchange rate poilicy that appreciates the exchange rate in the presence of wage inflation as an attempt to mitigate the depreciating pressures on the domestic currency and thus to ease the adjustment required on Greek producers.     

Size and Determinants of Capital Structure in the Greek Manufacturing Sector

Increasing competition in the European Union (EU) and world markets affects the Greek manufacturing sector. Capital structure is essential for the survival, growth and performance of a firm. There has been a growing interest worldwide in identifying the factors associated with debt leverage. However, nothing has been done so far in contrasting small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and large sized enterprises (LSEs) on these aspects. SMEs are very important in the Greek manufacturing sector for employment and growth. Empirical studies show that capital structure and the factors affecting it vary with firm size. In this paper we investigate the determinants of capital structure of Greek manufacturing firms and formulate some policy implications that may improve the financial performance of the sector. Our study utilizes panel data of two random samples, one for SMEs and another for LSEs. The findings show that profitability is a major determinant of capital structure for both size groups. However, efficient assets management and assets growth are found essential for the debt structure of LSEs as opposed to efficiency of current assets, size, sales growth and high fixed assets, which were found to affect substantially the credibility of SMEs. In an era of increasing globalization, the findings imply that Greek SMEs should focus their efforts on (a) increasing their cash flow capacity through better assets management and achievement of higher exports and (b) ensuring good bank relations, but at the same time, turn to alternative forms of financing. Greek LSEs should adopt strategies that will lead to the improvement of their competitiveness and securing new forms of financing. Government policy measures aiming at structural changes and economic efficiency should be designed clearly depending upon its targets: SMEs need policies that will encourage information exchange and co‐operation in local and foreign markets and use of e‐business, as well as, financial assistance. On the other hand, LSEs should be supported by policies aimed at new high‐technology investments, entrance of new firms and foreign investments in the country, tax alleviation and increase of R&D and training expenditures. The upgrading and transparency of the capital market in Greece is expected to improve the capital structure of Greek manufacturing firms.     

The role of exchange rate in inflation targeting: the case of Turkey

ABSTRACT

The role of the exchange rates in emerging market economies that have adopted inflation targeting (IT) is a critical and contentious issue in the relevant literature. This article investigates whether an exchange rate-augmented Taylor rule describes the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) monetary policy. Covering the period from 2002:1 to 2017:8 it also explores possible nonlinearities in the reaction function of the CBRT by employing a Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model. The linear estimation of the model highlighted the importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy under IT. The results of the nonlinear model indicate that the stance of monetary policy was asymmetric with respect to exchange rate movements during the conventional IT period. However, the asymmetric monetary policy stance disappeared in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Increasing considerations of financial stability undermined the asymmetric policy stance of the CBRT in the post-crisis period.     

Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary

We review the experience of Hungary with the preannounced crawling band exchange rate system during 1995–97. When selecting the exchange rate regime, several key characteristics of the transition process must be taken into account: reform-induced inflationary pressure, the necessity to restructure production and exports, and the need to establish credibility. We argue against a premature fixing of the exchange rate in transition economies and suggest that a crawling band can serve well the dual objectives of maintaining competitiveness and moderating inflation if it is supported by appropriate fiscal and structural policies. The exchange rate can be used more actively for disinflation if an acceptable wage policy can be negotiated, but this is difficult to achieve in the initial phase of the transition when the credibility of policy is weak.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 691–717. National Bank of Hungary, Szabadság tér 8-9, H-1054 Budapest, Hungary.     

The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe

The paper investigates future exchange rate policy of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries vis‐à‐vis the euro aimed at fostering their manufactured exports towards Euroland. The exchange rate policy is captured through three different indicators: the real effective exchange rate changes, volatility, and misalignment. The investigation is conducted for 11 sectors over the period 1970–1997. The sample includes four North African countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) and Turkey. The results show that exchange rate management plays a crucial role in providing incentives for manufactured exports toward Euroland. The food sector is weakly responsive to real exchange rate changes while the textile sector is highly responsive. Four growing sectors (electronic, electrical, mechanical, and vehicles) were also found to be highly sensitive to exchange rate changes. The results suggest that policymakers should be more concerned with misalignment than with volatility.     

Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area,the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports.     

How should emerging economies float their currencies?

Floating exchange rates seem to be gaining ground in Latin America, East Asia and the transition economies. The recent crises left many economies with no alternative but to float. Others have moved toward floating, searching for greater flexibility and insulation from external shocks. The question for most emerging market economies, then, is no longer to float or not to float, but how to float. Four issues arise in this regard. The first is how to float and have low inflation. The second is whether floating provides as much insulation as conventional theory predicts, especially in the presence of dollarized liabilities. Which leads to the third point: the relationship between the stability of the exchange rate and that of the financial system. The fourth is how to conduct monetary policy under a float, and the role of inflation targeting. We consider each of these points in turn, and conclude that a workable model of how to float seems to be emerging from the so‐far successful experience of countries like Chile and Brazil. It involves the adoption of an inflation target as the main anchor for monetary policy, coupled with a monetary policy reaction function that — aside from reacting to the output gap and other determinants of the inflation rate — reacts also partially to movements in the nominal exchange rate. JEL classification: F3, F4, E4, E5     

China's Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US

This paper investigates the claim that China's exchange rate policy causes the US trade deficit with China to grow. Although there is no evidence that changes in the exchange rate cause the trade deficit to rise in the short run, a statistically significant long‐run relationship between the RMB/dollar exchange rate and the US trade deficit with China is detected. As the value of the dollar declines (or RMB appreciates), ceteris paribus, so does the trade deficit. Hence, there is a need for China to adjust its exchange rate policy to help reduce the ever mounting US trade deficit.     

Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece

We model Greek monetary policy in the 1990s and use our findings to address two interrelated questions. First, how was monetary policy conducted in the 1990s so that the hitherto highest-inflation EU country managed to join the euro by 2001? Second, how compatible is the ECB monetary policy with Greek economic conditions? We find that Greek monetary policy in the 1990s was: (i) primarily determined by German/ECB interest rates, though still influenced by domestic fundamentals; (ii) involving non-linear output gap effects; (iii) subject to a deficit of credibility culminating in the 1998 devaluation. On the question of compatibility our findings depend on the value assumed for the equilibrium post-euro real interest rate and overall indicate both a reduction in the pre-euro risk premium and some degree of monetary policy incompatibility. Our analysis has policy implications for the new EU members and motivates further research on fast-growing EMU economies.     

Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly

Abstract Under efficient consumption risk sharing, as assumed in standard international business cycle models, a country's aggregate consumption rises relative to foreign consumption, when the country's real exchange rate depreciates. Yet empirically, relative consumption and the real exchange rate are essentially uncorrelated. This paper shows that this ‘consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly’ can be explained by a simple model in which a subset of households trade in complete financial markets, while the remaining households lead hand‐to‐mouth (HTM) lives. HTM behaviour also generates greater volatility of the real exchange rate and of net exports, which likewise brings the model closer to the data.     

The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach

Abstract This paper investigates the dependence structure between the real Canadian stock returns and the real USD/CAD exchange rate returns, using the Symmetrized Joe‐Clayton (SJC) copula function. We estimate the SJC copula with monthly data over the period 1995:1 to 2006:12. Our results show significant asymmetric static and dynamic tail dependence between the real stock returns and the real exchange rate returns, such that the two returns are more dependent in the left than in the right tail of their joint distribution. We explain this asymmetric dependence in terms of an asymmetric interest rate policy by Canadian monetary authorities in response to changes in the real exchange rate during sub‐periods of falling and rising commodity prices.     

Shock treatment for inflation: A note on optimal policy in a Buiter/Miller model

In exchange rate-overshooting models, of the kind recently used by Buiter and Miller to analyse the cost of reducing inflation, an unexpected change in monetary policy typically induces jumps in the exchange rate and (maybe) prices. This note illustrates with a numerical example a money-stock policy which reduces inflation instantly and permanently to zero without a jump in exchange rates or prices. This policy is optimal if the objective function contains no time-discounting and depends on the level of output and the squared inflation rate. It is also optimal if only inflation enters the objective function.     

Capital inflows, fiscal discretion, and exchange rate policy

Many writers have argued for the benefits of a credible fixed exchange rate (a hard peg) as a commitment device in an open economy. But historically, fixed exchange rates have often been associated with large current account deficits and episodes of ‘over-borrowing’. This paper develops a model of capital inflows that are linked to the exchange rate regime because of endogenous fiscal policy. The key message of the paper is that a hard peg is undesirable in the absence of commitment in fiscal policy. In face of a credible fixed exchange rate, the fiscal authority subsidizes capital inflows. The economy will engage in inefficiently high international borrowing, and in welfare terms may end up worse off than under capital market autarky. To eliminate the incentive to subsidize borrowing, the monetary authority must follow a flexible exchange rate rule in which capital inflows lead to exchange rate appreciation. If fiscal policy must be financed by money creation rather than direct taxation, then a fixed exchange rate rule may cause both over-borrowing and a subsequent exchange rate crisis.