Analysis of conflicts in dynamical environmental systems via catastrophe theory

This paper addresses itself to long-term conflicting issues in environmental policy analysis. After a brief discussion of the ‘new scarcity’ and its subsequent potential perturbations of our economic system in the long run, attention will be paid to some elements of catastrophe theory which may be helpful in gaining insight into the future impacts of inertia and conflicts in environmental management. Next, a fairly simple model for integrating natural resources and production will be constructed so as to illustrate the usefulness of catastrophe theory in economic-energy-environmental systems. The paper will be concluded with a brief judgement of using catastrophe notions in the social sciences.     

基于突变理论的高校稳定状况动态模糊评价研究

从稳定状态到不稳定的过程是一个复杂并且包含有着大量的突发性非连续性变化过程,为了研究和发现导致学校稳定状况产生突变的因素,科学地评判并预警,本文结合突变理论,运用模糊隶属函数和突变级数,将突变理论与模糊分析结合起来,对与学生有关的学校稳定系统进行多层目标分解,再根据归一公式进行量化递归运算,最后得到学校稳定总突变隶属函数值,进而通过分析不同时期学校稳定总突变隶属函数值及其变化趋势,动态地对学校稳定状况进行模糊综合评判并通过实例进行了检验。     

Evaluating intergenerational risks

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). We respond to this call by proposing and axiomatizing probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU) through a key axiom ensuring that the social welfare order both is ethical and satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. PARDCLU yields a new useful perspective on intergenerational risks, is ethical in contrast to discounted utilitarianism, and avoids objections that have been raised against other ethical criteria. We show that PARDCLU handles situations with positive probability of human extinction and is linked to decision theory by yielding rank-dependent expected utilitarianism—but with additional structure—in a special case.     

Two Twists in Economic Methodology: Positivism and Subjectivism

A bstract . AS the contradictory evidence gathered by other social scientists has continued to accumulate, two new twists have been added to the methodology of neoclassical economics. From Milton Friedman's positivism came the twist that "unrealistic" assumptions can be ignored, prediction is all that really matters. From the Austrian School's subjectivism came the twist that since economic theory is the a priori logic of subjective individual choice, the theory cannot be tested in the scientific sense at all. Neither qualitative historical evidence nor quantitative prediction can yield a scientific test of theory. At least Friedman's positivism allows for predictive testing, even though decisive tests are seldom found in social science. But Austrian subjectivism insulates economic theory completely from scientific testing. Neither methodology is conducive to scientific progress.     

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

This paper is the first attempt to fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to stock market data. We show that the cusp catastrophe model explains the crash of stock exchanges much better than other models. Using the data of U.S. stock markets we demonstrate that the crash of October 19, 1987, may be better explained by cusp catastrophe theory, which is not true for the crash of September 11, 2001. With the help of sentiment measures, such as the index put/call options ratio and trading volume (the former models the chartists, the latter the fundamentalists), we have found that the 1987 returns are bimodal, and the cusp catastrophe model fits these data better than alternative models. Therefore we may say that the crash has been led by internal forces. However, the causes for the crash of 2001 are external, which is also evident in much weaker presence of bifurcations in the data. In this case, alternative models explain the crash of stock exchanges better than the cusp catastrophe model.     

转型中的中国与个人的现代化——英克尔斯现代化理论浅析

文章从发展社会学家英克尔斯的个人现代化理论出发,结合转型中的中国国情,简要地分析了当下中国个人现代化的现状,并尝试分析其根源,针对分析结果提出了相应的措施。     

‘No strings attached?’: How attribution of disinterested support affects employee retention

Appearance of disinterestedness is a social norm that has long been recognised by social scientists as essential to the development of social exchange relationships. Despite the predominance of social exchange theory within the field of management, management scholars have so far largely overlooked the role of this norm in their models. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating how employees' attribution of disinterested organisational support (i.e. support perceived by employees as not resulting from an underlying calculation) is related to employee retention. The hypotheses were tested in a longitudinal study of 151 management‐level employees. Results showed that perceptions of disinterested support decrease employee voluntary turnover through enhancing perceptions of organisational support and organisational commitment, and lessening turnover intention.     

基于突变理论控制模型的应用与研究

本文致力于将突变理论引入到控制系统中,形成突变控制理论,并将突变控制的研究应用于道路系统。     

The Endogenous Economist:

A bstract . In the social sciences there exist links of communication and influence between the scientists and the actors of the modelled social systems. Social scientists are therefore endogenous parts of the systems which they study. Theories and models shouid be self-referential. The treatment of information in the rational choice models of the new classical theory, with its core assumption of rational expectations , has stopped short of extending the concept of endogeneity to the economists themselves. Economic theory proceeds on the assumption that it yields the true model and that the actors in the system share this same model even though economists have not yet agreed on this unique model. Moreover, it assumes that economists' disputes about the true model do not prompt the actors of the system to take positions and opt for one or the other of the discussed models. The use of a unique model perspective to interpret the response of financial markets to monetary announcements leads to inconclusive interpretations of the evidence. These findings are better interpreted as the result of multi model competition that has spilled over from academic science to the financial markets themselves.     

Searle, Rationality, and Social Reality

A BSTRACT . This paper makes a critical assessment of some contributions of John Searle of direct relevance to social science—his theory of rationality and his theory of institutions. The former is criticized for being able to account for how people can act for "external reasons," as opposed to their desires, only in cases where an obligation derives from a promise; a rival account is much more general. The latter is criticized on three grounds: (1) his theory of institutions can only account for a narrow range of social reality, that deriving from some kind of "enactment"; (2) his notion of "collective intentionality" is unnecessary to explain institutions and is introduced only so that Searle can stay within an individualistic, Cartesian theory of the mind, something of no interest to social scientists; (3) his account implies that if an institution exists, "we collectively accept it," whereas it may in fact not be accepted, but merely tolerated or submitted to.     

基于利益相关者／平衡记分卡的集团公司绩效评价研究

本文基于利益相关者理论,并借鉴平衡计分卡的原理,设计了集团公司对子公司的绩效评价体系。并以S集团公司为案例,按照所设计的绩效评价体系,运用突变级数评价法对该集团公司18个子公司的绩效进行了计算和评价。运用平衡记分卡设计的评价体系更加全面,且考虑了诸多利益相关者的诉求,选择的突变级数评价法计算简单,不存在确定权重的问题,减少了主观性。     

Long waves or catastrophes in regional development

This paper addresses itself to long-term economic developments in a spatial context. Particular attention is paid to the recent discussion on long-term cycles and the impacts of innovations. The spatial diffusion and impacts of long waves, especially in a regional setting with threshold levels and bottlenecks, are also discussed, while also some empirical evidence regarding long-term developments in the Netherlands is given. After a brief survey of some long-run spatio-temporal models, a dynamic model based on elements of catastrophe theory is developed. This model includes inter alia productive capital, social overhead capital (infrastructure) and R & D capital as main driving forces. Various stability aspects of this dynamic control model are finally examined.     

Thresholds in pareto sets

We use catastrophe theory to discuss the generic ways in which a system determined by the optimization of several real-valued functions, such as a pure exchange economy, can break its stability and make a transition from ‘slow’ to ‘fast’ movement.     

An introduction to mechanized reasoning

Mechanized reasoning uses computers to verify proofs and to help discover new theorems. Computer scientists have applied mechanized reasoning to economic problems but–to date–this work has not yet been properly presented in economics journals. We introduce mechanized reasoning to economists in three ways. First, we introduce mechanized reasoning in general, describing both the techniques and their successful applications. Second, we explain how mechanized reasoning has been applied to economic problems, concentrating on the two domains that have attracted the most attention: social choice theory and auction theory. Finally, we present a detailed example of mechanized reasoning in practice by means of a proof of Vickrey’s familiar theorem on second-price auctions.     

钢铁上市公司经营业绩综合评价研究

钢铁上市公司是钢铁行业内的领军企业,其经营业绩直接反映整个行业的盈利状况和发展潜力。本文基于突变理论的思想,结合我国钢铁行业财务分析的特点,从业绩能力和发展能力两个方面,构建了钢铁上市公司经营业绩评价指标体系。采用突变级数法,以普钢类上市公司为例,利用公开的财务数据,对我国25家钢铁上市公司的经营业绩进行了实证研究和综合评价。分析结果显示,普钢类上市公司在经营业绩综合表现方面,尚无具有绝对优势的领先者,盈利质量整体较低,企业的价值创造有待进一步提高;行业内部需要资源整合、优势互补、共同发展。     

Exploring the Conceptual Expansion within the Field of Organizational Behaviour: Organizational Climate and Organizational Culture

Developments within social and exact sciences take place because scientists engage in scientific practices that allow them to further expand and refine the scientific concepts within their scientific disciplines. There is disagreement among scientists as to what the essential practices are that allow scientific concepts within a scientific discipline to expand and evolve. One group looks at conceptual expansion as something that is being constrained by rational practices. Another group, however, suggests that conceptual expansion proceeds along the lines of ‘everything goes’. The goal of this paper is to test whether scientific concepts expand in a rational way within the field of organizational behaviour. We will use organizational climate and culture as examples. The essence of this study consists of two core concepts: one within organizational climate and one within organizational culture. It appears that several conceptual variations are added around these core concepts. The variations are constrained by rational scientific practices. In other terms, there is evidence that the field of organizational behaviour develops rationally     

巨灾保险费率精算模型及其应用研究

由于巨灾风险及其保险具有特殊性,风险可保性经典定义和大数法则不适用于巨灾保险及其费率精算。基于巨灾保险概念,在对巨灾事件离散模型、经济损失模型和保险损失模型研究的基础上建立了巨灾保险费率精算模型。以福建巨灾保险区划内住宅所面临的巨灾台风为例,利用实证数据资料对该模型及其矩阵化的应用方法进行了验证,结果表明该巨灾保险费率精算模型通用性强,易操作,结果较为可靠。     

Strategic Planning and Institutional Collective Action in Italian Cities

Long-run and sustainable development is a main source of concern for contemporary cities. To address this issue, strategic plans have been introduced in several cities. In this paper, we investigate the determinants of strategic plan adoption in Italian cities by relying on the institutional collective action theory which predicts that collaboration among institutions is more likely to occur in areas with larger social capital stock and where public bodies share a common history of collaboration. Our econometric evidence shows that a larger stock of social capital and a history of past institutional collaboration increases the probability of adopting a strategic plan, confirming the central prediction of the institutional collective action theory.     

Technologies of trust: actuarial theory,insurance sciences,and the establishment of the welfare state in Germany and Switzerland around 1900

The article analyzes the relation between transformations in information systems and changing forms of organization. Drawing on a historical case study, it examines the rise of actuarial theory in Germany and Switzerland around 1900 and its significance for the emergence of the first modern social insurances. So far, the history of actuarial theory has been written as the social history of the actuarial profession or the epistemic history of probability calculus. By examining the political and economic contexts of the history of actuarial theory, the article also discusses the notion of an “insurance society”. The argument concludes that Foucauldian interpretations of actuarial theory as a technology of power and a condition of modern governmentality are too monistic and should be specified. The article suggests to use the concept of a “technology of trust” to interpret the integrative power of actuarial theory in a political field marked by deep antagonisms.     

Condorcet meets Bentham

We show that if the statistical distribution of utility functions in a population satisfies a certain condition, then a Condorcet winner will not only exist, but will also maximize the utilitarian social welfare function. We also show that, if people’s utility functions are generated according to certain plausible random processes, then in a large population, this condition will be satisfied with very high probability. Thus, in a large population, the utilitarian outcome will be selected by any Condorcet consistent voting rule.