The impact of foreign board membership on firm value

This study examines the effect of foreign (Anglo-American) board membership on corporate performance measured in terms of firm value (Tobin’s Q). Using a sample of firms with headquarters in Norway or Sweden the study indicates a significantly higher value for firms that have outsider Anglo-American board member(s), after a variety of firm-specific and corporate governance related factors have been controlled for. We argue that this superior performance reflects the fact that these companies have successfully broken away from a partly segmented domestic capital market by “importing” an Anglo-American corporate governance system. Such an “import” signals a willingness on the part of the firm to expose itself to improved corporate governance and enhances its reputation in the financial market.     

Effect of derivative accounting rules on corporate risk-management behavior

I examine the effect of the accounting standard for derivative instruments (SFAS No. 133) on corporate risk-management behavior. I classify a derivative user as an “effective hedger” (EH firm) if its risk exposures decreased after the initiation of the derivatives program, and as an “ineffective hedger/speculator” (IS firm) otherwise. I find that volatility of cash flows and risk exposures related to interest rate, foreign exchange rate, and commodity price decrease significantly for IS firms but not for EH firms, suggesting that IS firms engaged in more prudent risk-management activities after the adoption of SFAS No. 133.     

A re-examination of the index effect: Gambling on additions to and deletions from the S&P 500's ‘gold seal’

This study examines the abnormal returns, trading activity, volatility and long-term performance of stocks that were added to the S&P 500 index. By using a three-factor pricing model that allows for firm size and value characteristics as well as market risk, we are able to shed new light on the widely observed ‘index effect’. We find that the CAPM tends to overstate the performance of large firms and to understate the performance of small firms. We also find a transitory increase in trading volume between the announcement and a few days after the effective date. In terms of the firm's operating performance, we find a significant increase in earnings per share after inclusion, which combines with the stock price rise to leave the average price-earnings ratio largely unaltered. Examining a unique sample of deletions of international companies and replacements with US companies, we find that deleted stocks experienced a considerable and permanent fall in price, inconsistent with the Investor Recognition Hypothesis. The “seal” of S&P 500 index membership has very long-term effects and inclusion appears not to be an information-free event.     

Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach

This paper investigates the time-series evidence of asymmetric reverting patterns in stock returns that is attributable to “contrarian profitability.” Using asymmetric nonlinear smooth-transition (ANST) GARCH(M) models, we find that, for monthly excess returns of US market indexes over the period of 1926:01–1997:12, negative returns on average reverted more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, to positive returns than positive returns revert to negative returns. The results are quite consistent when the models are implemented not only for the different sample periods, such as 1926:01–1987:09 and 1947:01–1997:12, but also for portfolios with different characteristics, such as different firm-size portfolios and Fama–French risk-adjusted factor portfolios. We interpret the asymmetrical reversion as evidence of stock market overreaction.     

Managerial discretion in distressed firms

This study examines the earnings management behaviour of 455 distressed US firms that filed for bankruptcy during the period 1986–2001. We examine (a) possible earnings management during the years prior to bankruptcy-filing, (b) whether qualified audit opinions cause conservative earnings management behaviour, (c) whether earnings management differs between firms that discontinued operations and firms that survived thereafter, and (d) the effect of earnings management on subsequent stock returns. Our results are consistent with downwards earnings management 1 year prior to the bankruptcy-filing. Results also show that (a) firms receiving unqualified audit opinions 4 or 5 years prior to the bankruptcy-filing event manage earnings upwards in subsequent years, consistent with Rosner [2003. Earnings manipulation in failing firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 20, 361–408], (b) more conservative earnings management seems to be related to the qualified audit opinions rendered in the preceding year, (c) firms with long-term negative accruals the year of bankruptcy-filing have a greater chance to survive thereafter, and (d) more pronounced (negative) earnings management is associated with more negative (next year's) subsequent returns.     

Conditional and Unconditional Conservatism:Concepts and Modeling

We develop a model that captures the distinct natures of and interactions between conditional and unconditional conservatism. Under unconditional conservatism, the book value of net assets is understated due to predetermined aspects of the accounting process. Under conditional conservatism, book value is written down under sufficiently adverse circumstances, but not up under favorable circumstances. The specification of earnings provided by the model yields hypotheses about how unconditional conservatism and other factors preempt conditional conservatism and so affect the asymmetric response of earnings to positive and negative share returns, both current and lagged, documented by Basu (1995, “Conservatism and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Rochester’ 1997, “The Conservatism Principle and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 24, 3–37).This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Auditor changes following big eight mergers with non-big eight audit firms

This paper examines the reaction of clients of “non-Big Eight” audit firms to mergers of their auditors with “Big Eight” firms. We postulate that a non-Big Eight audit firm's clients will retain a Big Eight acquirer following a merger if they benefit from the Big Eight firm's specialized services and/or reputation. Clients that do not have these economic incentives to retain the Big Eight firm are more likely to change to another non-Big Eight audit firm following the merger. Empirical tests of the characteristics of clients that remain with a Big Eight acquirer or change to another smaller auditor following an audit merger generally support our hypotheses.     

Towards an understanding of the phases of goodwill accounting in four Western capitalist countries: From stakeholder model to shareholder model

The objective of this paper is to illustrate that the change in shareholders’ attitude towards firms (from stakeholder model to shareholder model) influences the accounting treatments of goodwill. Our study is based on four countries (Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and France) and covers more than a century, starting in 1880. We explain that all these countries have gone through four identified phases of goodwill accounting, classified as (1) “static” (immediate or rapid expensing), (2) “weakened static” (write-off against equity), (3) “dynamic” (recognition with amortization over a long period) and (4) “actuarial” (recognition without amortization but with impairment if necessary). We contribute several new features to the existing literature on goodwill: our study (1) is international and comparative, (2) spans more than a century, (3) uses the stakeholder/shareholder models to explain the evolution in goodwill treatment in the four countries studied. More precisely, it relates a balance sheet theory, which distinguishes four phases in accounting treatment for goodwill, to the shift from a stakeholder model to a shareholder model, which leads to the preference for short-term rather than long-term profit, (4) contributes to the debate on whether accounting rules simply reflect or arguably help to produce the general trend towards the shareholder model, (5) demonstrates a “one-way” evolution of goodwill treatment in the four countries studied, towards the actuarial phase.     

Mediating instruments and making markets: Capital budgeting, science and the economy

We examine in this paper how certain instruments link science and the economy through acting on capital budgeting decisions, and in doing so how they contribute to the process of making markets. We use the term “mediating instruments” to refer to those practices that frame the capital spending decisions of individual firms and agencies, and that help to align them with investments made by other firms and agencies in the same or related industries. Our substantive focus is on the microprocessor industry, and the roles of “Moore’s Law” and “technology roadmaps”. We examine the ways in which these instruments envision a future, and how they link a multitude of actors and domains in such a way that the making of future markets for microprocessors and related devices can continue. The paper begins with a discussion of existing literatures on capital budgeting, science studies, and recent economic sociology, together with the reasoning behind the notion of “mediating instruments”. We then address the substantive issues in three stages. Firstly, we consider the role of “Moore’s Law” in shaping the fundamental expectations of an entire set of industries about rates of increase in the power and complexity of semiconductor devices, and the timing of those increases. Secondly, we examine the roles of “technology roadmaps” in translating the simplified imperatives of Moore’s Law into a framework that can guide and encourage the myriad of highly uncertain and confidential investment decisions of firms and other agencies. Thirdly, we explore one particular and recent example of major capital investment, that of post-optical lithography. The paper seeks to help remedy the empirical deficit in studies of capital budgeting practices, and to demonstrate that investment is much more than a matter of valuation techniques. We argue, through the case of the microprocessor industry, for greater attention to investment as an inter-firm and inter-agency process, thus lessening the fixation in studies of capital budgeting on the traditional hierarchical and bounded organization. In addition, we seek to extend and illustrate empirically the richness of the notion of “mediating instruments” for researchers in accounting, science studies, and economic sociology.     

Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case

We study the short run response of daily stock prices on the Spanish market to the announcements of inflation news at an industrial level, deepening the potential explanatory factors of this response (risk-free interest rate, risk premium and growth expectations). We observe a positive and significant response of the stock returns in case of “bad news” (total inflation rate higher than expected one) in recession, and also in case of negative inflation surprises (“good news”) in non-economic recession. This behaviour is consistent with the evolution of the company dividend growth expectations, since we observe that the relationship between this theoretical component of the stock price and the unexpected inflation, to a large extent, seems to explain the observed behaviour.     

The market reaction to cross-listings: Does the destination market matter?

This paper examines (i) whether market reactions to cross-listings differ across destination markets and (ii) to what extent the following explanations for value creation around cross-listings can account for differences in market reactions across cross-listings on various destination markets: overcoming market segmentation, increased market liquidity, improved information disclosure, and better investor protection (“bonding”). We analyze 526 cross-listings from 44 different countries on eight major stock exchanges and document significant announcement returns of 1.3% on average for cross-listings on US exchanges, 1.1% on London Stock Exchange, 0.6% on exchanges in continental Europe, and 0.5% (not significant) on Tokyo Stock Exchange. We find evidence consistent with improved disclosure and bonding creating value for cross-listings on US exchanges, while overcoming segmentation and bonding are associated with higher announcement returns on the London Stock Exchange. The evidence is mixed for continental European exchanges and for Tokyo. Our results highlight the role of the destination market in value creation around cross-listings.     

An experimental evaluation of the effects of internal and external e-Assurance on initial trust formation in B2C e-commerce

Both “internally-provided” (IPeA) and “externally-provided” (EPeA) e-Assurances are being used by e-commerce businesses to build trust amongst consumers by alleviating concerns about the privacy and security of e-commerce transactions. The primary focus of this study is to test the effectiveness of EPeA on increasing trust and purchase intentions among potential consumers, and to test if EPeA have an additional effect beyond e-Assurances provided internally (IPeA). Our findings show the presence of EPeA did not affect consumers' trust or purchase intentions, nor did the presence of EPeA increase trust or purchase intentions beyond IPeA, which raises concerns about the value of EPeA to the e-commerce community.     

A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

Linking control systems to business unit strategy: impact on performance

Rooted in continguency theory, this paper examines linkages between strategy, incentive bonus system and effectiveness at the strategic business unit (SBU) level within diversified firms. Data from 58 SBUs reveal (1) that greater reliance on long-run criteria as well as subjective (non-formula) approaches for determining the SBU general managers' bonus contributes to effectiveness in the case of “build” SBUs but hampers it in the case of “harvest” SBUs, and (2) that the relationship between extent of reliance on short-run criteria and effectiveness is virtually independent of SBU strategy.     

tay's as good as cay: Reply

In a recent comment on our published work [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S., 2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth, and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–850], Michael Brennan and Yihong Xia [2005. tay's as good as cay. Finance Research Letters 2, 1–14] advance the following argument: A “mechanistic” variable tay, where t is a linear time trend, forecasts stock returns. Since “t has no foresight,” the argument goes, the predictive power of this variable must be attributable to what they call “look-ahead bias.” The authors assert that cay is subject to the same look-ahead bias (generated because we use the full sample to estimate the cointegrating parameters in cay), implying that its forecasting power must be spurious. In this response, we explain why this critique is misplaced.     

World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.     

Financialized accounts: Share buy-backs, mark to market and holding the financial line in the S&P 500

In recent years the US corporate sector has deployed more cash from operations to finance the repurchase of outstanding share capital for treasury stock. Shares repurchased for treasury stock can help flatter earnings per share, fund senior management share option compensation schemes and finance corporate acquisitions. In financialized accounts these are now significant transactions which, it is argued, serve the financial interests of managers and investors.The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is now demanding a “greater use of fair value measurements in financial statements” with the result that share options and corporate acquisitions will be “marked to market”. This will force a financialized ratchet because managers in the S&P 500 will need step up cash extraction if they are to hold the financial line.     

Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk

The standard “delta-normal” Value-at-Risk methodology requires that the underlying returns generating distribution for the security in question is normally distributed, with moments which can be estimated using historical data and are time-invariant. However, the stylized fact that returns are fat-tailed is likely to lead to under-prediction of both the size of extreme market movements and the frequency with which they occur. In this paper, we use the extreme value theory to analyze four emerging markets belonging to the MENA region (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey). We focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of returns in each market and provide estimates of their tail index behavior. In the process, we find that the returns have significantly fatter tails than the normal distribution and therefore introduce the extreme value theory. We then estimate the maximum daily loss by computing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in each market. Consistent with the results from other developing countries [see Gencay, R. and Selcuk, F., (2004). Extreme value theory and Value-at-Risk: relative performance in emerging markets. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 287–303; Mendes, B., (2000). Computing robust risk measures in emerging equity markets using extreme value theory. Emerging Markets Quarterly, 4, 25–41; Silva, A. and Mendes, B., (2003). Value-at-Risk and extreme returns in Asian stock markets. International Journal of Business, 8, 17–40], generally, we find that the VaR estimates based on the tail index are higher than those based on a normal distribution for all markets, and therefore a proper risk assessment should not neglect the tail behavior in these markets, since that may lead to an improper evaluation of market risk. Our results should be useful to investors, bankers, and fund managers, whose success depends on the ability to forecast stock price movements in these markets and therefore build their portfolios based on these forecasts.     

Earnings management and initial public offerings: The case of the depository industry

In a typical IPO, insiders are “net sellers” of IPO shares; however, in a demutualizing thrift, insiders are “net buyers” of IPO shares. Using a sample of mutual depository IPOs, we find evidence consistent with earnings management prior to the conversion of mutual thrifts. We find on average that mutuals report lower ROA and increased loan loss provisions and loan loss reserves in the period prior to the demutualization. Using a two-stage approach, we also find that the level of discretionary loan loss provisions and discretionary reserves are positively related to both the level of insider participation in the IPO and the first-day returns to investors. Our results are consistent with management of mutual thrifts benefiting at the conversion from reduced pre-IPO earnings and book equity resulting from earnings management.     

Accounting and the examination: A genealogy of disciplinary power

Historical elaboration of Foucault's concept of “power-knowledge” can explain both the late-medieval developments in accounting technology and why the near-universal adoption of a discourse of accountancy is delayed until the nineteenth century. It is the disciplinary techniques of elite medieval educational institutions—the new universities and their examinations—that generate new power-knowledge relations. These techniques embody forms of textual rewriting (including the new “alphanumeric” system) from which the accounting advances are produced and “control” is formalised. “Double-entry” is an aspect of these rewritings, linked also to the new writing and rewritings of money, especially the bill of exchange. By the eighteenth century accounting technologies are feeding back in a general way into educational practice (e.g. in the deployment of “book-keeping” on pupils) and this culminates in the introduction of the written examination and the mathematical mark. A new regime of “objective” evaluation of total populations, made up of individually “calculable” subjects, is thereby engendered and then extended — apparently first in the U.S. railroads — into modern comprehensive management and financial accounting systems (systems of “accountability” embodying Foucault's “reciprocal hierarchical observation” and “normalising judgement”), while written examinations become used to legitimate the newly autonomous profession of accountancy.