A strategic analysis of sinking fund bonds

Unlike most securities, the pricing of sinking fund bonds is influenced by the distribution of ownership, which summarizes the extent to which the market is cornered. The effect of the distribution of ownership on the pricing of sinking fund bonds is examined by an explicit game in which the price obtained for bonds sold can depend upon the size of the investor's position. This framework is used to contrast the valuation of sinking fund bonds with the valuation of amortizing bonds and straight debt. We show that it is generally incorrect to view sinking fund bonds as being equivalent to serial bonds.     

Time diversification and security preferences: A stochastic dominance analysis

We use stochastic dominance to test whether investor should prefer riskier securities as the investment horizon lengthens. Return distributions for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills are generated for holding periods of one to 25 years by simulation. For each holding period, stochastic dominance tests are run to establish preferences between the alternative security classes. Contrary to previous mean-variance based studies, we find no evidence that high-risk securities (stocks) dominate low-risk securities (bonds, Treasury bills) as the investment horizon lengthens. However, we do find that corporate bonds systematically dominate government bonds.     

Pricing securities with multiple risks: A case of exchangeable debt

Building on the work of Das and Sundaram (2007), we develop a widely applicable model to price securities subject to interest rate, equity, and default risks and use it to price exchangeable bonds. The extension features a trivariate recombining lattice instead of the original model’s bivariate recombining lattice. We also show how to estimate some critical non-observable inputs to implement the model by using current market data so that the model’s prices reflect current market information. We test the model on a sample of exchangeable bonds to determine the model’s empirical performance. Besides exchangeable bonds, we can also use the model to price securities such as reverse exchangeable bonds, bonds exchangeable to indexes, and bonds exchangeable to commodities.     

A Duration Model For Defaultable Bonds

I extend recent theoretical work on duration and derive an improved model for the risk‐adjusted duration of corporate bonds. My ex‐ante risk‐adjusted duration is the sum of the bond's Fisher‐Weil duration and the duration of the potential expected delay in recovery caused by the default option. My main conclusion is that failing to adjust duration for default is costly for high‐yield bonds, especially those with a shorter time to maturity. For investment‐grade bonds, this cost is trivial for all maturities.     

银行间债券市场含权债估值问题研究

文章分析了银行间市场含权债实际成交价格的变动规律,介绍了市场实践中常用的定价方法,并对以理论模型为基础的一般估值方法进行了研究。结果发现,虽然目前市场上含权债的交易价格基本合理,但估值实践中较少利用理论模型,一般参考市价简单处理。含权债定价可以从建立二项式模型开始,逐步改变目前市场定价随意、缺少理论支撑的现状。     

A continuous-time model for reinvestment risk in bond markets

When comparing standard bond market models with practice we observe that, whereas the literature places no restrictions on the time to maturity of traded bonds, this is actually the case in practice. Hence, standard models ignore the reinvestment risk present in practice when considering contacts with longer time to maturity than the longest bond traded in the market. In this paper we propose a model including this reinvestment risk. We place a restriction on the bonds traded in the market by limiting the time to maturity of traded bonds. At fixed times, new bonds are issued in the market, thus extending the time of maturity of traded bonds. The initial prices of the new bonds issued in the market depend on the information generated by the market and a stochastic variable independent thereof describing the reinvestment risk. In order to quantify and control the reinvestment risk we apply the criterion of risk-minimization.     

A new way of looking at the risk in defined benefit pension plans

The portability feature of a defined contribution (DC) pension greatly reduces the risk to the accumulation of pension wealth. Conversely, defined benefit (DB) pensions have a variety of default risks that decrease the expected value of DB pension wealth. This paper examines those risks. Accrual of DB pension wealth is characterized in terms of purchases of risky bonds. Changing jobs triggers default on these bonds. Simulations are presented to show the potential loss in pension wealth from default. In addition, a methodology used to price corporate bonds is applied to generate estimates of the implied risk premiums of DB pension bonds over comparable riskless bonds.     

A Tax-Induced Clientele for Index-Linked Corporate Bonds

This paper analyzes the circumstances under which tax considerations favor or disfavor the use of index-linked corporate bonds. Using a model similar to Miller's, investors' choices of assets depend on their tax preferences for interest income versus capital gains and their preferences for the timing of returns. It is concluded that the absence of index-linked bonds in the U.S. cannot be attributed solely to tax reasons. However, following the 1986 Tax Reform Act, the tax code is expected to disfavor the use of index-linked bonds.     

Are covered bonds different from securitization bonds? A comparative analysis of credit spreads

This study compares credit spreads and pricing determinants of securitization vis-à-vis covered bonds. Our analysis reveals that although ratings are the most important pricing determinant for asset-backed securities (ABS) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors place relatively more importance on contractual, macroeconomic and banks' characteristics rather than ratings in pricing covered bonds. We find evidence of a mispricing effect in structured finance markets: ABS and MBS have higher credit spreads than similarly rated public-covered bonds and mortgage-covered bonds and security prices reflect information beyond credit ratings. We find no evidence of borrowing costs affecting banks' choice between securitization and covered bonds.     

A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle

A new monetary theory is set out to resolve the “uncovered interest parity (UIP)” puzzle. It explores the possibility that liquidity properties of money and nominal bonds can account for the puzzle. A key concept in our model is that nominal bonds carry liquidity premia. We show that the UIP can fail to hold under the economic environment where collateral pledgeability and/or liquidity of nominal bonds and/or collateralized credit-based transactions are relatively bigger. Our liquidity-based theory can help understanding many empirical observations that risk-based explanations find difficult to reconcile with.     

Transparency and Liquidity: A Controlled Experiment on Corporate Bonds

This article reports the results of an experiment designed toassess the impact of last-sale trade reporting on the liquidityof BBB corporate bonds. Overall, adding transparency has eithera neutral or a positive effect on liquidity. Increased transparencyis not associated with greater trading volume. Except for verylarge trades, spreads on newly transparent bonds decline relativeto bonds that experience no transparency change. However, wefind no effect on spreads for very infrequently traded bonds.The observed decrease in transaction costs is consistent withinvestors’ ability to negotiate better terms of tradeonce they have access to broader bond-pricing data. (JEL codes:G14, G18, G23, G24, G28)     

Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view

We investigate the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of German banks and the implications of such holdings for bank risk. We use granular information on all German banks and all sovereign debt exposures in the years 2005–2013. As regards the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of banks, we find that these are larger for weakly capitalized banks, banks that are active on capital markets, and for large banks. Yet, only around two thirds of all German banks hold sovereign bonds. Macroeconomic fundamentals were significant drivers of sovereign bond holdings only after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. With the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, German banks reallocated their portfolios toward sovereigns with lower debt ratios and bonds with lower yields. With regard to the implications for bank risk, we find that low-risk government bonds decreased the risk of German banks, especially for savings and cooperative banks. Holdings of high-risk government bonds, in turn, increased the risk of commercial banks during the sovereign debt crisis.     

A Long‐Term Perspective on the Determinants of Treasury Bond Stripping Levels

We examine the proportion of individual Treasury bonds held as strips over the entire history of the STRIPS program. First, we document a secular decline in the Treasury bond stripping levels from 1985 to 2010, coincidental with the long‐term decline in the interest rates. This pattern suggests that investors purchase strips to avoid reinvestment risk and to lock in the high interest rates in the 1980s and 1990s. Second, higher coupon and longer maturity bonds are shown to be more heavily stripped. Third, the suspension of new issues of 30‐year bonds from 2001 through 2006 created a gap in the maturity structure of Treasury bonds and induced heavy stripping of 30‐year bonds issued post 2006. Our findings suggest that stripping is motivated by several factors, including interest rate risk management, tax concerns and market completion.     

The Behavior of the Interest Rate Differential Between Tax-exempt Revenue and General Obligation Bonds: A Test of Risk Preferences and Market Segmentation

This paper presents evidence that the yield differential between revenue bonds and similar general obligation bonds varies contracyclically with the level of economic activity. The evidence also indicates that significant investor-borrower induced market segmentation exists in the municipal bond market. An increase in the relative demand by commercial banks for tax-exempt securities and/or an increase in the supply of revenue bonds relative to the supply of general obligation bonds increase the yield spread between the two classes of debt. These findings were the result of a series of empirical tests with both macroeconomic and microeconomic data.     

关于或有可转换债券的研究

次贷金融危机后,或有可转换债券作为解决＂太大而不能倒闭＂的一种方案以及金融机构的自救手段而广受热议,并得到许多监管机构的推崇。文章在对或有可转换债券产品及其功能进行深入分析后,发现其仍面临着诸如监管风险、低评级风险以及技术性风险等制约因素。鉴于或有可转换债券在危机期间显示出的对企业强大的救助功效以及防范危机进一步蔓延的能力,其发展前景仍值得期待,文章最后对或有可转换债券未来的发展方向进行了展望。     

A note on price noises and their correction process: Evidence from two equal-payoff government bonds

The study offers the most direct evidence to date on price noises in call auctions and their correction. We examine a unique sample of two identical securities (two equal-payoff Israeli government bonds) that were traded on separate yet almost simultaneous auctions on the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). The prices of the bonds were equal on average. However, on most of the sample days there were price differences between the bonds. Various estimates suggest that the price noise in one bond is practically uncorrelated with that of the other, and both disappear by the end of the next-day auction.     

Financing climate policies through climate bonds – A three stage model and empirics

The funding of climate mitigation and adaptation policies has become an essential issue in climate negotiations. Emissions trading schemes (ETS) and carbon tax policies are widely discussed as viable mitigation strategies, the revenue from which might then be used for adaptation efforts. In most current models, the burden of enacting mitigation and adaptation policies falls on current generations. This paper expands on a recent article by Sachs (2014) that proposes intertemporal burden sharing, suggesting that implementation of climate policies would represent a Pareto improving strategy for both current and future generations. In particular, this paper proposes that green bonds (also referred to as climate bonds) represent an immediately implementable opportunity to initiate Sachs’ plan; the issuance of green bonds could fund immediate investment in climate mitigation such that the debt might be repaid by the future generations, those who benefit most from reduced environmental damages. The Sachs model is a discrete time overlapping generations model which we generalize and turn into a continuous time version exhibiting three major stages. We solve this three phase model by using a new numerical procedure called NMPC that allows for finite horizon solutions and phase changes. We show that the issued bonds can be repaid and the debt is sustainable within a finite time horizon. We also study econometrically whether the current macroeconomic environment is conducive to successfully phasing in such climate bonds.     

Are TIPS the “real” deal?: A conditional assessment of their role in a nominal portfolio

This paper documents predictable time-variation in the real return beta of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and in the Sharpe ratios of both indexed and conventional bonds. The conditional mean and volatility of both bonds and their conditional correlation first are estimated from predetermined variables. These estimates then are used to compute conditional real return betas and Sharpe ratios. The time-variation in real return betas and the correlation between TIPS and nominal bonds coincides with major developments in the fixed-income market. One implication of this predictability is that portfolio managers can assess more efficiently the risk of investing in TIPS versus conventional bonds. Conditional Sharpe ratios indicate that over the sample period, TIPS had superior volatility-adjusted returns relative to nominal bonds. This finding is striking in view of the absence of a major inflation scare during the sample period from February 1997 through August 2001, but is loosely consistent with the possibility that TIPS elevated rather than reduced Treasury borrowing costs. On the other hand, mean–variance spanning tests indicate that TIPS did not enhance the mean–variance efficiency of diversified portfolios.     

Callable Bonds: A Risk-Reducing Signalling Mechanism

The theory of financial economics has failed to distinguish advantages of callable bonds from those of short-term debt. This paper shows that either type of borrowing can signal a firm's better prospects but that short-term debt does so at the cost of weakened risk-sharing with capital markets. By issuing either equity or long-term, non-callable debt, a firm with poor investment opportunities will not pool its prospects with those of a better firm. But equity produces superior risk-sharing. Perhaps this explains the almost complete absence of long-term, non-callable bonds from observed corporate capital structures.     

关于欧元债券场外二级市场交易架构和交易机制研究

近年来,欧元债券市场发展迅速,欧元债券规模已超过美元和英镑债券,居世界第一位。文章对欧元债券场外二级市场交易架构和交易机制进行了研究,从市场分层的角度,对欧元债券场外交易商间电子平台和交易商与买方间的电子平台的现状与特征分别进行了梳理,并从中探寻欧元债券二级市场交易架构的发展新趋势。