THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF SIGN AND SIZE OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS: NEW ZEALAND EVIDENCE

This paper examines the effect of 1196 earnings announcements on share prices, using the familiar cumulative abnormal return method of analysis. Earnings are partitioned into unexpected earnings increases and decreases using a martingale model. As well, six portfolios are established, based on the size of unexpected earnings, using two different measures of size.     

A VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE INFORMATION IN THE TERM STRUCTURE

Based on a market efficiency assumption, we use variance decomposition analysis to separate information in the term structure on expected future spot rates from information on time-varying term premia and to examine the market's ability to forecast both future rate changes and excess returns on long versus short securities. We find that fluctuations in the slope of the yield curve are due more to changing term premia than to fluctuations in expected future spot rates and that the market correctly predicts about 40 percent of the month-to-month changes in spot rates, a considerably higher percentage than that found by previous studies.     

MARKET POWER,BANK MEGAMERGERS,AND THE WELFARE OF BANK BORROWERS

We assess the effects on the welfare of corporate borrowers of the recent wave of bank consolidations in the United States that has produced a small number of very large banks. Our evidence from a sample of more than 3,000 commercial borrowers from banks involved in large mergers indicates that the wealth effects on these borrowers are highly negative, statistically significant, and economically important. These negative investor perceptions seem to be driven largely by the expectation of changes in banks’ market power resulting from the mergers.     

SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS FOR NEW INVESTMENT AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF INSIDER TRADES

Significant negative valuation effects are widely acknowledged for firms announcing seasoned equity offerings. This result is consistent with theoretical models linking new equity issues to increased adverse-selection costs, lower management ownership in the firm, misuse of free cash flow, or expectations for earnings declines. Also increasingly evident, insiders trade around corporate announcements. We test the hypothesis that insider trading and announcements of new equity issues serve as joint signals in the market's evaluation of prospective capital investment projects. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that insider trading is related to market reaction to announcements of new equity issues.     

TIME-TO-BUILD EFFECTS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE

This paper shows that real macroeconomic variables have power to predict movements in the term structure of interest rates. This complements recent evidence that links the term structure to expected stock returns. We find that up to 86 percent of the variation in the term premia are due to the changes in macroeconomic variables. The predictive power can be attributed to the time-to-build effect of investments.     

STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AND BANK POSITIONS

This paper explores the strong form efficiency of the pound sterling-U.S. dollar market by analyzing the ability of U.S. commercial banks to formulate superior expectations vis-a-vis the market in two ways. First, Stein's theory is employed to distinguish between shifts and disturbances in the exchange market equilibrium. Second, the swap transaction framework extracts U.S. commercial banks' expectations from their observed behavior. Results obtained from both approaches suggest that the observed group has better than random forecasting accuracy.     

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF A NEW CLASS OF NO-ARBITRAGE-BASED DISCRETE MODELS OF THE TERM STRUCTURE

We present empirical tests of the new no-arbitrage-based term structure paradigm in discrete time. We derive and test empirical specifications for deterministic one-factor forward rate volatility models and examine the compatibility of these forward rate volatility functions using term structure dynamics. Our estimation technique uses the generalized method of moments and is based on forward bond price deviations. We do not impose restrictions on the market price of risk, and we incorporate all available term structure information. Our data consist of four sets of pure discount bonds derived from the CRSP bond files and U.S. Treasury bill quotes.     

THE STRUCTURE AND CONTENT OF EXECUTIVE AGENCY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

This paper reports the results of a survey of the published financial statements of executive agencies entering the Price Waterhouse Best Agency Report and Accounts Competition. The survey illustrates the application of GAAP designed for one environment in a different context and the difficulties that result under these circumstances from the absence of direct analogies for some classes of event. Some suggestions for improvements in reporting are made, includ- ing: the publication of standardised, sector-wide, guidance; standardisation of formats and terminology; the use of the 'expenditure less income' format for the operating statement in appropriate cases; and the clarification of insur- ance arrangements.     

THE EFFECTS OF BANK CONSOLIDATION ON RISK CAPITAL ALLOCATION AND MARKET LIQUIDITY

We investigate the effects of financial market consolidation on the allocation of risk capital in a financial institution and the implications for market liquidity in dealership markets. An increase in financial market consolidation can increase liquidity in foreign exchange and government securities markets. We assume that financial institutions use risk‐management tools in the allocation of risk capital and that capital is determined at the firm level and allocated among separate business lines or divisions. The ability of market makers to supply liquidity is influenced by their risk‐bearing capacity, which is directly related to the amount of risk capital allocated to this activity.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AS A COINTEGRATED SYSTEM: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE EUROCURRENCY MARKET

In this paper I examine the term structure of Eurocurrency interest rates from six countries (with maturities of one, two, three, and six months) using unit root tests and cointegration tests that are robust to departures from independent and identically distributed errors. The main conclusions are: (1) Eurocurrency interest rates have one (and only one) unit root when viewed individually, and (2) for each of the countries examined, Eurocurrency interest rates are cointegrated—with one equilibrium relationship—when viewed jointly. These conclusions are consistent with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis and suggest that in efficient markets arbitrage generally prevents rates on different maturities of a given asset from drifting too far for an extended period.     

BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE AND THE MANAGERIAL-DISCRETION HYPOTHESIS: AN EXPLORATORY EMPIRICAL STUDY OF NEW ZEALAND LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES

The managerial-discretion hypothesis states that in mutual insurance companies policyholders will seek to protect their interests by limiting managerial discretion in investment and financing decisions. Therefore, mutuals are predicted to introduce restrictive mechanisms (e.g., company by-laws) that promote precautionary investment, such as government securities. In stock companies, shareholders are expected to increase their wealth at the expense of policyholders' interests by investing in more speculative assets, such as equities. Differences in investment activity also affect policy valuation and reserving decisions reflected in the liability side of the insurance company balance sheet. The managerial-discretion hypothesis implies that systematic differences in the structure of balance sheets between mutual and stock insurance companies are likely to exist. To carry out an exploratory test of this aspect of the managerial-discretion hypothesis, the present study employs canonical correlation analysis on New Zealand life insurance company data for 1991. However, the empirical evidence does not appear to support the proposition that balance sheet structure varies systematically between mutual and stock companies.     

THE TERM PREMIA RELATIONSHIP IMPLICIT IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF TREASURY BILLS

This paper considers a single coefficient representation of the term premia relationship that appears in treasury bill yield curves. Term premia are defined as positive or negative maturity-dependent differentials versus the instantaneous nominal spot rate. The term premia function is developed in the context of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross [ 3 ] Risk-Averse Preferred Habitat Model and proxies for the degree of risk aversion exhibited by the universe of treasury bill investors at a point in time. Empirical results indicate that term premia are influenced by a set of macroeconomic variables in the expected manner.