The Calculation of Returns to Research in Distorted Markets

Most of the empirical literature calculating rates of return to publicly sponsored research assumes that research is the only relevant government intervention. For most countries this assumption is untenable. This paper shows that improperly measuring government induced market distortions can severely bias research rate of return calculations. If the interaction between successful research and other government interventions increases the cost of the other interventions, then neglecting market distortions unambigously increases the calculated rate of return. Three examples of government induced distortions show that the magnitude of the upward bias in calculated rates of return can be extremely large - in some cases more than 100 percentage points. A normative implication is that governments should account for interactions between research and price interventions when determining research support levels. A positive implication is that existing government research funding patterns are more readily explainable as reasonable behavior by a government that accounts for these interactions.     

Macroeconomic impacts of export commodity price subsidy in Papua New Guinea

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impacts of a price subsidy for tree crops in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The price subsidy had favourable impacts on tree crop export income, aggregate demand, private consumption, and investment and employment. It increased imports, the budget deficit, and the demand for money and adversely affected the fiscal balance, inflation and interest rates, the BOP position and macroeconomic stability. The price subsidy contributed favourably to internal balance but adversely affected external balance. It worked against many of the policy objectives and made macroeconomic management difficult. With the introduction of the price subsidy, the government violated the commitments made under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and PNG's Structural Adjustment Program.     

Industrial land price between China’s Pearl River Delta and Southeast Asian regions: Competition or Coopetition?

The planned economy system’s previous form of industrial land market control in China has led to current market failure because of a large amount of industrial land being sold at a very low price, causing extensive overuse of land and negative effects on land management. As the “World Factory”, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is well known for its rapid urbanization largely driven by Foreign Direct Investment in labor-intensive industries. A low-land price strategy has been commonly adopted by the local government in order to attract industrial investment. In the past decade, the PRD has increasingly faced the increasing competition from its neighboring competition from its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia that have established preference policies to attract FDI and foreign enterprises. Despite a growing body of literature on the internal forces of industrial land in China, little is known of the external forces involved except for the importance of FDI and the intensity of interregional competition between China and other countries in attempting to attract foreign investment. This research fills the knowledge gap by modeling the situation in the form of an international cooperative game model aimed at revealing the industrial land price formation mechanism between the PRD region and Southeast Asian regions. The conditions of industrial land in the area and several Southeast Asian countries are first analyzed for their industrial land price movements in recent years. A game theoretic model is then built that exhibits similar characteristics. The result indicates that the governments’ low land price strategy and the competition between the PRD and its neighboring countries have created unnecessarily high social and environmental costs. Policy suggestions are made to encourage a more appropriate use of industrial land in China, and the most important being the need for a mindset shift from competition towards coopetition between the PRD and Southeast Asian regions.     

油茶林经营模式小规模或大规模之辨——基于江西省宜春市案例分析

面对油茶林大规模经营模式受到推崇而家庭经营模式受忽视的状况,以江西省宜春市为研究范围,基于抽样调查和典型调查的数据,测算不同经营模式的投资回收期和内部收益率,运用典型案例分析不同经营模式的特点和发展趋势。结果表明:油茶林大规模经营不可行,小规模经营才是保障原料供应的关键,建议完善现行补贴政策,结合精准扶贫,引导农户进行集约化经营,以实现油茶产业发展规划目标。     

Voting for Environmental Policy Under Income and Preference Heterogeneity

We examine the design of policies for promoting the consumption of green products under preference and income heterogeneity using organic food as an example. Two instruments are considered: a price subsidy for organic food products and a tax on conventional products. When the income differences and social benefits of organic farming are large, these factors dominate in shaping the policy preferences of the majority. In this case, the environmental policies preferred by the majority tend to be stricter than socially optimal policies. However, when income differences are small, policy preferences are more directly determined by tastes for organic products and the majority may prefer no intervention.     

最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响以稻谷为例

[目的]最低收购价政策实施以来,在稳粮价、促生产、保粮安的同时,也产生了显著的负面影响,探索以市场机制为核心的粮食价格支持政策改革势在必行。[方法]文章以稻谷为例,通过构建局部均衡模型,模拟逐渐下调最低收购价、取消最低收购价、取消最低收购价并大幅增加农业补贴等方案对我国稻谷的产量、总消费、库存和净进口等方面的影响,进而探究最低收购价政策调整对我国粮食安全的影响。[结果]（1）下调稻谷最低收购价,对稻谷市场价格、总产量和总消费的影响较小,而对库存和净进口量的影响较大;（2）取消最低收购价,虽然能大幅度减小国内外差价、库存量和进口量,但短期内也会显著减少稻谷产量,对我国的粮食供给安全带来了巨大冲击;（3）取消稻谷最低收购价,并大幅度提高了农业补贴后,稻谷总产量下降水平明显减少,既解决了托市收购带来的负面影响,也降低了取消托市收购对粮食供给安全的冲击。[结论]最低收购价政策的支持效应显著,为充分保障国内粮食安全,在推行粮食市场化改革时,应首先考虑小幅度下调最低收购价,而不是一次性取消最低收购价政策;同时,要配套相应的补贴政策,优化农业补贴结构,来保障粮农的种植积极性。     

福建省国有林场营林投资经济效益评价研究

运用净现值法和内部收益率法,用福建省国有林场杉木生产过程中发生所有费用和木材生产过程中发生费用的资料,研究福建省国有林场营林投资经济效益。结果表明:国有林场林业投资有一定的经济效益,但经济效益还是比较低;以6%的资本利率,杉木投资的净现值为178.53元/hm2。林业税费政策调整以后,林业投资收益主要取决于造林抚育的支出水平。     

地区重点企业水污染减排复合政策模拟研究

在水污染排放税和排放权交易市场并行的现实政策情景下,模拟复合政策对地区重点企业的排放权配置结构、产量、利润和社会福利的影响,并探索实现社会福利和企业创新减排利润同时最优的政策区间。研究发现:相比于排放税,企业利润对排放权价格变化更为敏感;企业最优的从市场取得的排放权相对于超排量的比例与利润之间呈倒U形关系;在排放税税率与排放权单价的价差较小,且排放税率略低于排放权价格时,可实现经济与环境的双赢。为了使复合政策的效率最大化,建议减排政策中应避免排放税和排放权同低或同高的情形。     

中国农林生物质发电产业现行电价补贴效果研究

从生物质能源电价补贴政策视角出发,构建了政府、企业、中间人和农户为一体的农林生物质发电产业系统动力学模型,通过模拟、对比不同补贴政策组合下的实施效果,对现行补贴政策进行量化评价。结果表明:现行补贴额度无法扭转发电企业亏损状态,且现行的直接退出机制将导致企业出现更为严重的亏损,而适当调整补贴额度并实行逐减退出方式可提高各主体及产业整体利润。因此,为了促进中国农林生物质发电产业的快速发展,就要保障生物质补贴资金优先及时发放,同时推进可再生能源配额制度和绿证交易制度建设,以促进产业快速良序发展,实现生物质资源充分利用。     

目标价格补贴政策对棉花生产的影响分析基于PSM-DID的实证研究

目的 目标价格补贴政策是改革农产品价格形成机制的重要举措,对于优化我国农业供给结构具有重要的意义。方法 为了评估临时收储制改为目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花生产的影响,文章基于2011—2018年新疆和其他棉花主产区县级棉花生产相关数据,运用双重差分倾向得分法（PSM-DID）分析了目标价格补贴政策对新疆棉花的种植面积和产量的总体影响、动态效应和区域效应。结果 目标价格补贴政策对调控国内棉花供给起着重要作用;该政策总体上促进了新疆棉花产业发展,棉花面积和产量显著提高;从政策的动态效应来看,目标价格政策调整为三年一定的方案对棉花生产的促进作用显著大于试点期一年一定的效应;此外,目标价格补贴政策对南疆和北疆的影响效应存在差异,对南疆棉花生产的促进效果更显著。结论 在此基础上,结合我国缺乏棉花定价权,目标价格补贴政策可能导致国家财政负担过重,且容易触及WTO黄箱补贴的限制等问题,该文提出了进一步完善目标价格补贴政策,逐步向脱钩的补贴方式过渡,并积极探索财政补贴与市场补偿相结合的补贴机制等相关建议。     

航电枢纽工程财务增效机制研究

航电枢纽工程大多面临投资大、运行费用高、发电产出少、财务效益差等问题。为促进其可持续发展,真正实现以电养航,在对航电工程财务因子敏感性分析的基础上,依托嘉陵江流域典型枢纽,深入研究其财务增效机制。研究表明,争取电价补贴和调整资本金结构并举是改善航电枢纽运营环境,增强企业经营活力的有效、可行措施。     

Cross-subsidization Due to Inframarginal Support in Agriculture: A General Theory and Empirical Evidence

A general theory of cross-subsidization due to inframarginal support is developed. Two sources of output distortion are identified: exit deterrence and extramarginal output. Some firms would not be in business without the subsidy. Cost savings due to declining average costs are always greater than the losses incurred where price equals marginal cost. Moreover, it is theoretically possible for inframarginal subsidies to expand output more than equivalent fully coupled subsidies. Empirical analysis of U.S. dairy subsidies isolates these components of cross-subsidization and finds distortions from inframarginal support to be substantial, with implications for trade negotiations, dispute settlement, and policy formulation.     

Effects of subsidized crop insurance on crop choices

This study focuses on how subsidized crop insurance affects crop choices. Crop insurance may change farm investments by reducing risks and providing subsidies. First, actuarially fair insurance reduces risks in crop production and marketing, holding the expected return constant. Second, insurance subsidies encourage farms to purchase crop insurance, which increases the expected return to insured risky crops. Farms also have many self‐insurance mechanisms such as crop diversification or working off the farm. We derive conditions under which (1) unsubsidized and actuarially fair crop insurance or (2) insurance premium subsidies lead to more investment in a risky higher return crop. We then examine the role of self‐insurance for these conditions. The impact of premium subsidies is decomposed into a direct profit effect and an indirect coverage effect. These effects are explained by substitutions between market insurance and self‐insurance and between a risky crop and a safe crop. We discuss each effect as a combination of subsidy and risk effects. Numerical illustrations show that an insurance subsidy has a larger impact on risky crop investments compared to that of an input subsidy when farms are more risk‐averse and have high costs of self‐insurance. The framework provides a novel way to evaluate subsidized crop insurance programs.     

森林保险保费补贴政策林业产出激励效应评估

基于开展森林保险保费补贴政策的23个省(市、自治区)2014—2018年面板数据,在分析正向激励效应与负向抑制效应下的森林保险保费补贴政策产出效应传导机制的基础上,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与面板数据模型从林业产出视角分别对全国层面、东部地区和中西部地区的森林保险保费补贴政策实施效果进行评估。结果表明:森林保险保费补贴政策存在产出激励效应,且存在1期滞后;同时,森林保险保费补贴对林业产出的促进效果受影响于林业风险,风险水平的上升会抑制保费补贴政策对林业产出的促进作用;森林保险保费补贴政策产出激励效应及林业风险对补贴政策产出激励效应的影响均存在区域差异性。最后,提出实施保费补贴差异化、逐步提升保障水平等建议。     

林业补贴政策对浙江林农营林投入和收入影响分析

基于浙江省3县368户农户的调查数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)研究实施中央财政林业补贴政策对林农营林投入和收入的影响。结果表明:实施林业补贴政策可以显著增加农户的营林投入,但对农户的营林增收没有显著带动作用,这证明林业补贴能够有效刺激林农的营林积极性,但增收效果仍有待观察。因此,选取林业补贴对象应注重"普惠+特惠"制、林业补贴政策需长期稳定执行、政府部门应加强林业补贴政策的宣传力度。     

WTO“绿箱”政策与大型灌区改革

根据在大型灌区的调查数据，从投资效率、管理体制、运营机制和水价管制等方面对其进行实例分析后发现，目前大型灌区存在投资效率低、体制不顺、管理不活、水价管制失灵等问题。针对这一现状，提出加大政府对大型灌区农业基础设施的投入，加快大型灌区的管理体制和运营机制改革，以及改革国家的农业宏观政策等建议。     

Fertilizer subsidies and food self‐sufficiency in Indonesia

Indonesia is a net importer of almost all of its staple foods. National self‐sufficiency in food, especially the main staple, rice, is a core objective of economic policy. Poverty reduction is also a core policy objective. Since the 1970s, Indonesia has used agricultural input subsidies, especially on fertilizer, to stimulate agricultural production, largely in pursuit of the goal of rice self‐sufficiency. More recently, it has also used output protection, especially in rice, for the same purpose. This article utilizes a multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to study the trade‐offs between the goals of self‐sufficiency and poverty reduction when two alternative means are used to achieve them: a fertilizer subsidy, on the one hand, and output protection, on the other. It does this by analyzing the aggregate and distributional effects of these two sets of policies and by comparing their effects with nonintervention. The analysis shows that, in terms of its effects on poverty, a fertilizer subsidy can be a more effective instrument for achieving the goal of rice self‐sufficiency than final product import restrictions.     

河北省玉米供给反应研究——基于2003～2010年农户层面的动态面板分析

玉米已成为我国播种面积最大的粮食作物,同时玉米在主要粮食作物中比例也不断攀升。文章利用2003～2010年河北省农户玉米种植的动态面板数据,建立了农业供给反应（适应性预期）模型,采用广义矩阵估计方法（GMM）,对影响河北省9个县534户农民的玉米供给和调整的价格、政策以及气候等因素进行了动态面板实证分析和相关探讨。基于农户玉米生产供给反应模型的理论框架,推导出研究所采用的动态面板适应性预期模型。结果表明,首先,河北省农户的玉米种植面积对于价格变化很敏感,玉米种植面积的长期价格弹性较大。其次,补贴政策对于农户种植玉米有一定的积极促进作用,但是农户对于补贴额的反应程度很小。再次,生产成本投入增加会制约河北省农户玉米种植。最后,降水对于保证玉米生产具有重要作用。因此,稳定玉米价格、继续加大政策支持力度、完善水利基础设施补贴力度对于保证河北省玉米生产和供给会产生积极促进作用。     

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

Stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and eveloped. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost-effective alternatives including non interventionist and market-oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi-market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.     

DYNAMIC INTERRELATED DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN UNITED KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non-linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision-maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectively.