THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TRADE POLICY ON DEVELOPING COUNTRY AGRICULTURE*

The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations has attracted much attention in the developing countries. It promises to weaken moves towards bilateral trade agreements, break open trade in temperate agricultural products, and should remove the last vestiges of protection against tropical products – although tariff escalation will remain. Overall, the main gains for the developing world will probably accrue to exporters of temperate products, above all those in Latin America; whilst for some of the poorer countries, losses may occur as the benefits of special and favoured access to the industrialised countries' markets will be eroded.     

CHANGES IN THE TERMS OF TRADE FOR AGRICULTURE: NEW PLATEAU OR NEW PRECIPICE*

This paper looks at the recent boom in agricultural commodity prices to see to what extent the changes these prices reflect are of a structural rather than short term nature. It concludes that they are essentially short term: a lagged supply response to the agricultural depression of 1970 and 1971; the coincidence of normal commodity cycles for several commodities; an unusual coincidence of adverse seasonal conditions in major producing areas, particularly the U.S.S.R.; and an unprecedented upswing in world economic activity. Nevertheless, there are a number of factors which suggest that, other than possibly in short term disequilibrium situations, agricultural commodity prices will not decline to previous levels: worldwide inflation; redirection in world agricultural support policies; and the energy crisis. Many of these factors win also influence prices of manufactured goods and hence the terms of trade. After considering the problems of world food supplies and continued growth in world population, the paper suggests that there is little evidence of a major structural change in the market for agricultural commodities. Rather, it points to a return to the previous situation where there is a slight tendency for the terms of trade to move against agriculture.     

分析预测·联合国粮农组织关于2004年全球稻谷生产贸易情况的预测

生产情况最近,联合国粮农组织提了对2004年全球稻谷产量预计,为6.11亿吨,主要是为预计世界主要稻谷生产———中国的稻谷产量增加,时也预计印尼、菲律宾、美国越南稻谷增产。这些国家稻的增产量超过了柬埔寨、日、秘鲁和泰国的减产量。非洲于降水量不足及蝗灾的影,稻谷产量下降。如果2004世界稻谷产量最终能够达到.11亿吨,将比2003年增产700万吨,接近1999年的历最高水平。1.亚洲主要稻谷生产国生情况虽然中国的稻谷产量增,但亚洲其他国家稻谷的减影响了整个地区产量的增。亚洲大多数国家2004年度稻谷收获季节已结束,正在行第二季稻谷播种。…     

RECIPROCITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This article is in two parts. First, the theoretical basis underlying the possibility of reciprocity in trade is stated. Secondly, a study has been made of statistics of post war trade between the U.K and its major trading partners in an attempt to see whether any evidence of reciprocity emerges and, if so, the nature of the relationship. Doubt is cast on the supposition that a calculation of net import saving is a reliable short-run estimate of net balance of payments contribution of an expansion of U.K. agriculture. Finally, the results of the analysis are applied to the level of import saving projected by the National Economic Development Committee's Report on “Agriculture's Import Saving Role”.     

农业数字化转型对农业绿色增长的影响

目的 农业绿色发展是实现农业高质量发展的重要途径,研究农业数字化转型的绿色增长效应具有现实意义。方法 文章选取2013—2019年中国省级面板数据,运用熵值法和SBM_GML指数分别测算了数字农业和农业绿色全要素生产率指标,使用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型等方法,实证研究了农业数字化转型对农业绿色增长的影响及作用路径。结果 （1）农业数字化转型对农业绿色增长有显著的促进作用,且该效应在沿海地区大于内陆地区、在非粮食主产区大于粮食主产区。（2）农业数字化转型通过绿色技术创新、农业规模化经营和农业种植结构调整作用于农业绿色增长。（3）淘宝村集聚和数字普惠金融在农业数字化转型与农业绿色增长间存在显著门槛效应,随着阈值区间的提高,农业数字化转型对农业绿色增长的影响呈现出先缩小后扩大“正Ｕ型”关系。结论 贯彻绿色发展理念,围绕农业绿色增长实施农业数字化转型发展策略,推动农业可持续发展。     

RESEARCH PRIORITIES IN AGRICULTURE

Following brief presentation of the post-war pattern of agricultural R and D expenditure and productivity changes, the major theoretical issues associated with the evaluation and assessment of R and D spending are discussed. It is argued that emphasis on ex post evaluations of R and D, particularly through rate of return calculations, is misplaced. The economist's tool-box contains many more instruments than internal rates of return and simplified cost/benefit analyses which are relevant to the difficult decisions of R and D allocation and management. A supply/demand perspective of the R and D system and its interaction with the rest of the social economy is suggested as being more useful in the examination of R and D questions than the traditional view of R and D as a linear progression from pure science through applied research and development to adoption, which is implicit in investment analysis. Some implications of the supply/demand view are identified.     

发挥贵州农业比较优势 大力发展特色农业

阐述了对深化贵州农业比较优势的认识;提出从理清思路、明确目标、立足优势、突出重点等方面做好规划工作;指出部门齐抓共管、提高科技含量、大力发展加工、加强市场建设、努力增加投入等5方面保障措施.     

FACTOR SUBSTITUTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE

Studies of the ease of substitution between inputs in production have generally been carried out within a production framework of an explicit functional form. In this study, a somewhat different approach is followed. A model of derived demand for primary factors of production, land, labour and capital is formulated to enable inferences to be made about the characteristics of the unspecified production function. The model is used to obtain estimates of the pairwise Allen-Uzawa substitution elasticities which are secondary parameters of the underlying production function. The reported FIML estimates from aggregate time series data for the period 1920/21 to 1969/70 indicate very low and marginally different substitution elasticities between different pairs of factors, suggesting that both the Cobb-Douglas and CES production function specifications for the Australian agricultural sector are inappropriate.     

RETIREMENT POLICY IN FRENCH AGRICULTURE

A supplementary retirement grant (I. V.D.) has been the most important of a range of measures introduced since 1962 as a solution to social and structural problems in French agriculture. Although one-third of the country's agricultural area has been transferred through the scheme, there has been no revolutionary change in farm sizes. The restructuring required by the policy has been relatively slight and the economic attractions of the retirement grant have declined, particularly since the early 1970's. Problems have also arisen from the uneven spatial adoption of the pension, from internal contradictions within the scheme and from the lack of co-ordination with other aspects of government support for agriculture and regional development policy.     

地理信息系统(GIS)在北京农业中的应用

通过地理信息系统(GIS)的ArcGIS平台建立的“农业资源生产管理信息系统”,分析了系统对农业数据处理和展现的部分方法和手段。介绍了将图形数据和属性数据紧密结合,科学统计分析数据,实现农业资料的数字化、智能化、可视化的方式,为地理信息系统应用于农业,进行农业科学管理、农业生产科学决策、农业结构优化调整,提供了全新的技术手段。     

农业可持续发展与21世纪农业发展目标

分析了农业发展的阶段性与我国农业发展的历程;阐述了21世纪我国农业的具体目标与任务;论述了持续农业是中国农业的必然选择;最后研究确定了农业可持续发展指标体系设置的原则、指标体系。     

青海农产品优势及农业竞争力提升途径

该文在概括青海省农业资源状况和农业生产状况的基础上,分析和评价了青海省主要农产品表现在品质、成本和供求时间上的优势程度,提出了提升青海农产品竞争力及农业结构调整的途径,以及相应的政策和措施。     

发展贵州特色农业大有可为

通过分析贵州发展特色农业的资源禀赋和广阔的发展前景,提出了当前发展贵州特色农业需要关注的3个主要问题;加强资源调查,发挥规划的导向作用;加强市场调查,实施名牌战略;搞好区域布局,走产业化经营的路子。