Developing a holistic approach to the analysis of farmer decision-making: Implications for adaptation policy and practice in developing countries

Smallholder farmers operate within a risky and uncertain context. In addition to climate variability and climate change, social, environmental, institutional, and market-related dynamics affect their agricultural decisions and ability to cope and adapt. In this paper, we develop and apply a set of framing questions to investigate the factors shaping farmer decision-making and how these are situated in pathways of response. Drawing on a literature review of decision-making for risk management, five questions are posed to frame enquiry: what livelihood decisions are undertaken by households, who makes what decisions, when do households make decisions and why do they make them, and how do decision making processes evolve and response pathways arise. This approach conceptualises and explores household decision-making in a holistic manner, moving beyond previous studies that examine smallholder decisions through disciplinary boundaries (e.g. psychology, economics, risk management) or particular theoretical approaches (e.g. bounded rationality, theory of planned behaviour). The framing questions together with key insights from literature are used to design and interpret empirical evidence from Pratapgarh, a tribal-dominated rainfed district in southeast Rajasthan, India. The findings suggest that while resource ownership and access are the main drivers of decision-making, socio-cognitive factors such as perceived adaptive capacity and perceived efficacy to carry out adaptive actions are equally important factors mediating farmer responses. We also find that the holistic approach helps explain how personal motivations and individual perceptions of adaptive capacity interact with socioeconomic, climatic, and agro-ecological dynamics at local and regional scales to mediate risk perception and inform response behaviour. A typology of response pathways demonstrates how different households’ trajectories are determined. Making a case for mixed methods to investigate farmer decision-making holistically, this paper provides an approach that reflects the complex and iterative nature of real farmer decision-making and can be used by researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to better understand and describe decision making and to develop informed policies and interventions.     

Farmer-to-farmer technology diffusion and yield variation among adopters: the case of improved cowpea in northern Nigeria

This article examines the magnitude and sources of yield variation among adopters of improved cowpea varieties in northern Nigeria promoted through farmer‐to‐farmer diffusion. The results reveal important efficiency differences between the lead farmers who have contacts with breeders and the follower farmers who get technology and information from the lead farmers. Differential adoption of the package of seed, insecticide, fertilizer, and recommended cereal‐cowpea cropping pattern provides much of the explanation for yield variation among adopters. The component often missing, and hence accounting for much of the yield variation, is the crop management technology relating to the cereal‐cowpea cropping pattern. No efficiency variation is attributed to the source of technology and information, such as whether improved cowpea was obtained from breeders or lead farmers. Technology source has a rather indirect influence on efficiency through its effect on package adoption where breeders promote greater package adoption among the lead farmers than the lead farmers do among the follower farmers. Possible ways of disseminating crop management technological information through the farmer‐to‐farmer technology diffusion are recommended to better exploit the yield and profitability potentials of improved cowpea varieties in northern Nigeria.     

Farmer's willingness to participate in wetland restoration: a hurdle model approach

Due to a severe degradation of the wetland ecosystem in China, great efforts have been devoted to promote farmers’ willingness to participate in wetland restoration. As the decision‐making body, farmer's willingness to participate is critical to wetland restoration. It is thus important to understand factors that will affect farmers’ willingness to participate and their levels of participation. Using a survey sample of 1,009 farmers from the Poyang Lake wetland area in China, this article applies a hurdle model to empirically investigate the factors affecting individual farmers’ sequential decisions on whether or not to participate and how much land to enroll in wetland restoration. Results suggest that farmers’ information and knowledge about wetland restoration compensation policy is crucial in determining whether or not to participate in the first stage. Meanwhile, individual farmer characteristics and household attributes play different roles in influencing farmers’ participation decisions and acreage enrollment decisions. This study provides useful insights to identify effective policy instruments to motivate participation and ensure success of such policies.     

Utilizing conjoint analysis to design modern crop varieties: empirical example for groundnut in Niger

Preferences for monetary and non-monetary plant traits influence modern crop variety adoption decisions of farmers. To enhance adoption probability of modem crop varieties, it is necessary to identify and locus research on traits that significantly contribute to utility while de-emphasizing insignificant plant attributes. This paper illustrates the potential for applying conjoint analysis to aid the design and targeting of client-responsive modern crop varieties, farmers ranked eight orthogonally-derived plant trail combinations used in an illustrative example. Utilities were estimated using the choice-probability-based method of ordered probit. Results showed that conjoint analysis can differentiate significant and non-significant trails of modern crop varieties. The usefulness of applying conjoint analysis over identifiable disaggregated groups of a sample was also evident. Future application of conjoint analysis to the design and targeting of modern crop varieties should carefully consider sample composition and size to permit the estimation of relevant sub-models for desired farmer segments.     

Technology characteristics,farmers' perceptions and adoption decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Leone

The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that farmer perceptions of technology-specific characteristics significantly condition technology adoption decisions. Earlier adoption studies have not considered this in the analysis of the determinants of adoption decisions. The omission of farmers' evaluation of technology-specific attributes may bias the results of factors conditioning adoption choices. A Tobit model was used to test this hypothesis using a stratified random sample of 124 mangrove swamp rice farmers in Sierra Leone. The issue investigated is the adoption of improved mangrove swamp rice varieties. The estimated model results show that farmer perceptions of the technology-specific attributes of the varieties are the major factors determining adoption and use intensities. Indicators of adoption determinants traditionally used in adoption-diffusion studies were found not to be important in driving adoption decisions. Therefore, there is need for adoption studies to consider farmers' perceptions of technology-specific attributes in the assessment of technology adoption decisions.     

Environmental grants and regulations in strategic farm business decision-making: A case study of attitudinal behaviour in Scotland

This paper addresses the question of farmer responses to agri-environmental programming in light of the Single Farm Payment, focusing on the role of environmental regulations and grant schemes in strategic farm decision-making. Utilising Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour in a qualitative case study of farmers in Upper Deeside, Scotland, it was found that farmer respondents actively consider environmental regulations and grant opportunities as part of their decision rationale in making investments in farm development, such as agro-industrial building construction or securing additional land. Fulfilling agri-environmental regulations is constructed by respondents as being part of ensuring farm viability, while eligibility for agri-environmental schemes is impacting on how tenanted land is valued. The author identifies three mechanisms facilitating farmer up-take of environmental schemes, and makes a case for consideration of farmers as experts in producing environmental outcomes while maintaining economic sustainability of farming operations.     

Exploring farmer perceptions of agricultural innovations for maize-legume intensification in the mid-hills region of Nepal

Maize-legume intercropping is a fundamental component of mixed farming systems in the mid-hills of Nepal. However, its productivity is constrained by several biophysical and social factors, and limited adoption of proven agricultural innovations. In this study, we assessed the productivity impact of a selection of relevant agricultural innovations and changes in the associated perceptions of farmers through a series of two-year participatory on-farm trials. The evaluated innovations resulted in higher yields as compared to farmers' current practices. The active involvement of farmers enlarged our understanding of underlying decision-making factors to adopt or non-adopt agricultural innovations. Additionally, the in-depth farmer engagement in our onfarm trials positively influenced farmer perceptions of the innovations and their interest to adopt the agricultural innovations. Yet, farmers final decisions to adopt some of the evaluated innovations were limited by a host of factors including labour scarcity, the availability of inputs, and by cultural preferences despite the increased yields. This was particularly true for low and medium resource-endowed farmers. This study shows the importance of active farmer participation and context-specific design of research and development projects aiming for local impact.     

Adaptation of Agroforestry Systems in South-Eastern Mexico through Integration of Farmer and Bioeconomic Evaluations

Agroforestry systems have been promoted as sustainable land-use systems for regions where shifting agriculture is the traditional predominant land-use. Although environmentally sustainable, agroforestry systems require investment to establish that may affect their economic sustainability. In the southern Yucatan Peninsula 47 agroforestry plots of two timber and 10 fruit tree species were established with 22 farmers in three communities covering two rainfall zones and five soil types. Some fruit trees had wide adaptability to different soil, rainfall and management conditions, e.g. Manilkara zapota; others were restricted to the best soil, rainfall management conditions, e.g. Persea americana. The Meliaceae timber trees responded little to rainfall and soil, but stem borer attack was markedly lower in less intensively managed systems. Level of system maintenance greatly affected costs, but also opportunities for intercropping and obtaining immediate income. All levels of managements had negative net present value (NPV) for the three-year establishment phase, but so does traditional maize production. Farmers preferred to inter-crop their agroforestry systems, but were often limited by site quality. Determining sustainable agroforestry options for farmers requires multiple decisions related to species adaptability to the site, farmer production objectives and farmer capacity to invest in different management strategies. One production technology did not fit all.     

Measuring Farmer Risk Preferences in Europe: A Systematic Review

We present a systematic review of the extensive body of research on farmer risk preference measurement across Europe. We capture the methodological developments over time and discuss remaining challenges and potential areas for further research. Given the constantly evolving policy environment in Europe, and increasing climate-change related risks and uncertainties, there is large value to be gained from enhancing our understanding of this fundamental aspect of farmers’ decision-making processes and consequent actions.     

农民发展权综合评价指数模型的构建及实证分析

[目的]中国农民发展权是农民拥有的公平参与促进经济、社会、文化和政治发展过程并公平分享发展成果的基本人权。但由于涉及权利,概念抽象,学者和公众关注度不高,因此,对农民发展权进行分解,并进行指标数据量化并计算结果,是一个不错的、方便民众了解该权利,并对该权利实现结果有一个整体判断的途径。[方法]运用层次分析法构建农民发展权综合评价指数模型,具体有3个步骤:第一,解析农民发展权内容、构造农民发展权指标体系。第二,借助层次分析软件中的群决策工具完成农民发展权各个中间层指标的赋权。第三,运用该模型,对中国农民发展权进行测度。[结果]从指标值和发展权计算结果看,近10年农民相对市民的发展权不足一半,且并未有所改善。单看农民发展结果类指标数值城乡差距有增大趋势。从农民发展权构成看,政治发展权是短板。[结论]近10年农民发展权处于弱势且未得到保障。政治发展权的短板是农民发展权未得到保障的根源。给予农民更多话语权,财政资金的投入向农民更多倾斜,只有这样才可能降低现有的农民和市民发展结果的差异。     

Technology Adoption and Pest Control Strategies Among UK Cereal Farmers: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Count Data Models

This paper examines the intensity of technology adoption and integrated pest management strategies employed by UK farmers, using both parametric and nonparametric methods. We employ a unique survey dataset collected from UK cereal farmers to assess the determinants of technology adoption in relation to pest management. Our preferred model specification is nonparametric, with models estimated yielding broadly similar results, with some important qualitative differences. All models indicate that total area farmed is positively related to the number of technologies adopted, whereas the number of years of experience of the farmer is negatively related. We also find evidence with our nonparametric specification of significant statistical differences for number of adoptions by region across the UK.     

Farmers’ perspectives on climate change manifestations in smallholder cocoa farms and shifts in cropping systems in the forest-savannah transitional zone of Ghana

The study was conducted to explore actual manifestations of climate change in smallholder cocoa farms to aid extension response to climate impacts, and to understand the reasons for a renewed interest in cocoa production in the forest-savanna agro ecological landscape in Ghana, in spite of unfavorable climatic conditions. Two hundred cocoa farmers were interviewed in nine cocoa farming communities. Selected farms were also visited to document on-farm manifestation of climate impacts as well as innovations and strategies farmers are employing to respond to the adverse impacts of climate change on their cocoa systems. The results revealed various manifestations of climate impacts on cocoa farms which included, increased incidence of pests and diseases, wilting of cocoa leaves, high mortality of cocoa seedlings which affected expansion and farm rehabilitation, and wilting of cherelles resulting in low yield. The farmers maintained that their response to the immediate impacts of climate on cocoa was a shift to cereals due to the unpredictable climatic patterns and the shortened duration of rainfall. However, a combination of storage and supply chain challenges and low returns from cereal production, coupled with land scarcity in the Western Region, where most of them are migrant farmers accounted for their decision to return to cocoa production lately. It was observed, among other adaptive responses, that some farmers plant about three times the plantain suckers they usually plant, to provide a dense temporary shade over cocoa seedlings, and resort to planting more cocoa seedlings randomly per unit area on new farms, contrary to recommended planting approach, as a form of insurance against seedling mortality. More importantly, a community-based fire response system was identified to be a major safeguard mechanism to the threat of fire. Clearly, the farmers are not replanting cocoa in the forest-savanna agro ecological landscape because it is more productive than cereals, but they believe that a low yielding cocoa is far better than a productive cereal cropping systems that offer low returns when compared to cocoa. The study brings out the sustainable livelihood challenges of the rural farmer within the context of a changing climate for appropriate policy response.     

Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies

A model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site-specific technologies (SSTs) using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters. Uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case. Ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption. Accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of SSTs. Improving the accuracy of SSTs would increase the incentives for adoption.     

Payments for environmental services in Indonesia: What if economic signals were lost in translation?

This article provides an analysis of a payment for environmental services (PES) scheme in the Cidanau watershed, Indonesia. It contributes to the debate on the alleged effectiveness of such economic incentives to actually change decisions among land users. Building on the standard PES theory of change, one would assume that farmers respond to payments and change their land use decisions accordingly for the delivery of environmental services. However, at the project level the impacts of economic incentives depend on how the signal is transmitted to decision-makers. An extensive household survey was undertaken among 270 participating farmers in order to investigate these assumptions. Results indicate that farmers join the scheme for intrinsic motivations rather than because of economic incentives. Besides, the scheme does not target farmers whose decisions could be changed for the sake of service provision. Finally, farmer group leaders display disproportionate power of decision while individual farmers have a low level of understanding of the PES programme. As a consequence, land use patterns might not depend on the economic incentive only; rather they are likely to be determined by the local social context, traditions and economic dependency on forests. This in turn casts some doubts on the strong (yet contested) economic assumptions that underlie the emergence of PES schemes and on their modus operandi in developing countries.     

On‐Farm Conservation of Rice Biodiversity in Nepal: A Simultaneous Estimation Approach

This paper presents an empirical case study about farmer management of rice genetic resources in two communities of Nepal, drawing on interdisciplinary, participatory research that involved farmers, rice geneticists and social scientists. The decision‐making process of farm households is modelled and estimated in order to provide information for the design of community‐based conservation programmes. A bivariate model with sample selection examines the simultaneous process of whether farmers decide to plant landraces or modern varieties, and whether the landraces they choose to plant constitute the genetic diversity of interest for future crop improvement. Findings show that the two landrace choices are affected by different social and economic factors, but in certain cases the decision processes are interrelated. Policies to promote the conservation of local rice diversity will need to take both processes into account.     

Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems

This paper develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific biophysical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision-making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete and continuous land-use and input-use decisions. An econometric-process model of the dryland grain production system of the Northern Plains demonstrates the capabilities of this type of model to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data.     

Impact of farmer self-identity and attitudes on participation in agri-environment schemes

Influencing farmers to make positive contributions to the environment is one of the goals of agri-environment schemes (AESs). Understanding the drivers of farmer behaviour and the choices they make with regards to AESs is important as this aids policy makers in creating schemes that have a wider scope and are more likely to achieve environmental goals. Past studies have identified the importance of farmer self-identity and attitudes in decisions made on farms. Little emphasis has been put on modelling the relationship between self-identity and attitudes towards schemes and the resulting impact on participation in voluntary AESs. Using Ireland as a case-study, this paper employs a survey of 1000 farms to look at participation in AESs through the lens of farmer perceived self-identity and their attitudes towards schemes. A relatively novel approach of combining factor analysis, to generate a self-identity typology, with an AES participation regression model is implemented. The model results suggest that self-identity and attitudes have a significant impact on AES participation. Neighbouring farmers’ viewpoints also have a significant and positive impact on the participation decision made by farmers.     

Uncertain Land Availability and Investment Decisions: The Case of Dutch Dairy Farms

Within the EU, uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land can be quite significant for individual farmers in sectors like dairy farming. Farm‐level investment decisions are commonly made ex‐ante, when the farmer is not certain about the possibility of purchasing land. This possibility is realised only in a future period. In this paper, we have developed and applied a simple two‐period model in which a profit‐maximising farmer, facing uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land, has to choose the optimal mix of capital (buildings) investment and land endowment. We illustrate the model using data from Dutch dairy farms.     

Farmers’ land use decision-making in the context of changing land and conservation policies: A case study of Doi Mae Salong in Chiang Rai Province,Northern Thailand

In Thailand, land use planning and policy decision-making were—and to some extent still are—organized in a hierarchical and disjointed fashion. This is also true for the utilization of public lands, including forest reserves in the northern uplands that are often settled by ethnic minorities. There are, however, instances of change in land policies and regulations and in the way decisions and plans are made. Doi Mae Salong (DMS) in Northern Thailand, where there is a trend towards land use for conservation purposes, is a case in point. This paper aims to explore decision-making by farmers in DMS in the context of changing land regulations and policies from the 1950s to the present. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, together with a historical perspective and with narratives on land management through time, were applied by using in-depth interviews of key informants and group farmers’ discussions as tools. The time period under investigation was divided into three periods of change: The first period, before the year 1960, was an era of security concern. In contrast, the second period, from 1961 to 1996, was an era of emerging conservation priorities. Finally, the third period, from 1997 to the present, is an era of lessons learned from the conservation era. Land use decision outcomes reveal that the decision-making processes of farmers are influenced both by the hierarchical decisions of higher authorities and by horizontal linkages among multiple stakeholders. However, while farmers participate readily in forest conservation activities, they do not play an active role in the process of changing policies.     

Decision-making by farmers regarding ecosystem services: Factors affecting soil conservation efforts in Costa Rica

The impact of climate change on farm soils in the tropics is the combined result of short-term soil management decisions and expanding precipitation extremes. This is particularly true for cultivated lands located in steeply sloping areas where bare soil is exposed to extreme rainfall such as the Birris watershed in Costa Rica. Farmers in this watershed are affected by increasing degradation of soil regulation services and respond with different level of efforts to conserve their soils. This paper examines influences on farmers’ decisions through a survey involving interviews with a sample of farmers (n = 56) to test hypotheses on how a combination of cognitive variables (beliefs, risk perception, values) and socioeconomic variables shape decisions on soil conservation. Results show that farmers’ awareness of their exposure level to soil erosion combines with other variables to determine their level of soil conservation. Using discriminant analysis, three groups of farmers were identified based on their soil conservation efforts. ANOVA pairwise-comparison among these groups showed significant differences in respect to levels of awareness, perception of risk, and personal beliefs along with territorial exposure and participation in soil conservation programs. Our results help to understand farmers’ complex decision-making on soil conservation and help designing policies to support the provision of soil regulation services especially in areas highly exposed to increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events such as Central America.