Food market liberalization: History and prospects

Abstract

Government intervention has been a feature of food markets in both industrialized and agrarian economies. However, the last 10 years have seen reforms aimed at reducing intervention; these have been a characteristic of ‘structural adjustment’. The process of reform has involved the replacement of administered by market‐determined prices and the abolition of trading parastatals or the removal of their monopoly. Despite an almost complete consensus that reforms are necessary and the absence of coherent local opposition, the pace and extent of reforms have varied. Moreover, views about liberalization tend to be polarized. Proponents argue that continued intervention is inefficient, unaffordable and distorting; antagonists suggest that unmodified markets lead to unacceptable inequalities, and expose producers and consumers to unacceptable risks. Moreover, weak fragmented markets do not constitute a sufficient base for sustained growth. This paper reviews the experience. It concludes that simple solutions of substituting public with private trading are not necessarily possible nor desirable, and argues that the nature of the debate may be misleading. The way forward may not lie in a choice between private market supremacy and conventional government intervention.     

Food scares, market power and price transmission: the UK BSE crisis

This paper is concerned with the impact of food scares, principallythe BSE crisis in the UK, and focuses on price transmissionin vertically related markets. We show that if market powerhas an effect on the farm–retail margin, this determinesthe specification of the cointegrating relationship and thusprovides a test of market power. The results for the UK beefchain suggest that we cannot reject the importance of marketpower. The impact of the BSE crisis on farm prices is foundto be more than double that on retail prices, thus corroboratingpublic concerns regarding a differential impact of food scareson retailers and producers.     

Financial consequences of cross-compliance and flat-rate-per-ha subsidies: The case of olive farmers on sloping land

Under the past Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) olive oil subsidy regime, farmers were eligible for subsidies on the basis of amount of olive oil produced. This led to an intensification of production and negative environmental effects on sloping land, such as loss of biodiversity and more soil erosion. In 2004 the olive and olive oil regime changed, with integration of support to olive farmers in the Single Payment Scheme (SPS). From 2006 to 2013 farmers receive a constant amount of subsidies, based on the average amount they received in the 4-year reference period 1999–2002.     

The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures

This study tests the market efficiency hypothesis for coffee and cocoa futures using daily data for contracts with a maturity of 2 and 6 months. The hypothesis is tested sequentially. The first condition is that future spot and futures prices be cointegraled. If this condition is maintained, market efficiency requires the cointegrating vector to support a (0, 1) restriction that can be likened to an unbiasedness condition. Finally, market efficiency imposes zero restrictions on the parameters of the variables expressed in first differences in the specification of the error-correction representation of the relationship between future spot and futures prices. Brenner and Kroner [Brenner, R., Kroner, K., 1995. Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30, pp. 23–42] argue that the cointegration condition is rarely met in practice. They attribute this outcome to potentially non-stationary net cost-of-carry which would make the parameters of the cointegration relation unstable. It is for this reason that Hansen's tests [Hansen, B.E., 1992. Tests of parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10] about the stability of the parameters in cointegration regressions were used to supplement more traditional cointegration tests, Johansen and Juselius' cointegration tests [Johansen, S., Juselius, K., 1992. Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK, Journal of Econometrics 53] could not reject cointegration for all four contracts while Hansen's L_C test favored cointegration only for the cocoa contracts. Nested and non-nested testing procedures were used to test the (0, 1) restriction on the cointegration vector. Unbiasedness was found to be robust across testing procedures. However, further testing about the specification of the error-correction representation revealed the existence of important short run deviations from unbiasedness, Even though these results hold strictly for a rather limited number of contracts and commodities, they are encouraging for futures markets advocates in developing countries.     

渔业补贴的类型及演变

渔业补贴被认为是引发过渡捕捞、扭曲国际贸易的重要因素,日益引起关注。本文概述了渔业补贴的基本类型,包括政府对行业的直接支付、税收减免和延期、政府贷款及贷款担保和保险、对行业的隐性支付或隐性收费、对渔业有影响的一般性政策或计划,并分析了各类补贴的性质和作用。通过简述美国、加拿大、挪威、冰岛等国渔业补贴政策演变历史,说明了渔业补贴问题的复杂性。     

Designing afforestation subsidies that account for the benefits of carbon sequestration: A case study using data from China's Loess Plateau

This paper presents a method for determining the subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in timber afforestation programs designed to maximize social well-being. The method incorporates a carbon sequestration benefit function into the land expected value model in order to quantify the social benefit arising from carbon sequestration by the planted trees. This is used to calculate the optimal rotation age for newly planted forests that maximizes social utility. The minimum subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in the afforestation program was calculated using a modified decision model that accounts for the subsidy's impact. The maximum subsidy offered by the government was taken to be the NPV of the carbon sequestration achieved by afforestation. Data on Robinia pseudoacacia L. trees planted on the Loess Plateau were used in an empirical test of the model, which in this case predicts an optimal subsidy of 254.38 yuan/ha over 40 years. This would guarantee the maintenance of forest on land designated for afforestation until they reached the socially optimal rotation age. The method presented herein offers a new framework for designing afforestation subsidy programs that account for the environmental service (specially, the carbon sequestration) provided by forests.     

The case for property investment and the implications of a unitized property market

Abstract

It is well known that direct property investment has often provided a more attractive risk/return profile than gilts and yet it enjoys a comparatively small role in institutional portfolios. This paper begins by updating and confirming that position. It then considers why this should be the case and poses the question of whether the development of a unitized property market might alter institutions’ perceptions of property as an investment in such a way as to increase its portfolio importance.

Section 2 discusses the weighting attached to property in recent years and section 3 discusses the conventional methods of risk/return analysis which present property in a favourable light. The paper then asks why the weighting should be so low and begins (section 4) by looking at arguments that conventional methods of risk/return analysis are misleading when applied to property, leading to an overstatement of return and an underestimate of risk. If institutions are aware of these defects they may adjust their perceptions of risk/return appropriately. We are not, however, persuaded that this is the whole of the explanation. In section 5 we consider other disadvantages or costs of direct property investment which go unrecorded by conventional measures of risk but which might be important to institutions. We confirm there are peculiarities attaching to direct property investment but that these cannot wholly explain the high return that institutions seem to need to induce them to hold only a small proportion of their portfolio in property. We are left, therefore, with the conclusion that institutions’ perceptions of the merits of property investment are a significant factor. Thus, in section 6, we try to identify ways in which an active market in unitized property might encourage institutions to hold larger property portfolios in future.     

Fat taxes and thin subsidies: Prices, diet, and health outcomes

“Fat taxes” have been proposed as a way of addressing food-related health concerns. In this paper, we investigate the possible effects of “thin subsidies”, consumption subsidies for healthier foods. Empirical simulations, based on data from the Continuing Study of Food Intake by Individuals, are used to calculate the potential health benefits of subsidies on certain classes of fruits and vegetables in the United States. Estimates of the cost per statistical life saved through such subsidies compare favorably with existing U.S. government programs.     

International market integration and demand: An analysis of the Norwegian and Danish herring market

This article provides a method where pre-tests for international market integration are used to identify market structures before estimating demand systems. The method is applied to the analysis of the European herring market. A Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form is used to identify co-integration vectors between price series and, based on this, to test for the Law of One Price. The Law of One Price is in force between the landing markets for herring in the two largest global supplier countries, Norway and Denmark. Therefore, an inverse demand function is estimated for the combined Norwegian and Danish market. The results are used in the interpretation of the significant increase in the prices of herring on the Danish ex-vessel market in 2001, given the stability of the Danish market. The implication is that even though Denmark did not export to the main Norwegian export markets in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Danish landing price is influenced by the situation there.     

Economics of export subsidies under costly and imperfect enforcement

The present paper builds on the published literature on agricultural policy analysis under costly and imperfect enforcement by introducing enforcement costs and misrepresentation into the economic analysis of export subsidies. Specifically, the present paper examines the economic causes of cheating on export subsidies and the consequences of enforcement costs and misrepresentation for the welfare effects and the transfer efficiency of this policy instrument. Policy design and implementation is modelled as a sequential game between a government that designs and enforces the policy and the recipients of the payments. Two alternative policy implementation scenarios are considered. In the first scenario, export subsidies are paid to private trading firms while in the second scenario subsidies are paid directly to the producers of the subsidised commodity. Analytical results show that the introduction of enforcement costs and cheating changes the welfare effects of export subsidies and their efficiency in redistributing income to producers. The analysis also shows that, contrary to what is traditionally believed, the incidence of export subsidies depends on the group that is subsidised to export the surplus quantity – the way the policy is implemented. The results provide additional support for the contention that the economic consequences of cheating are highly policy-specific. Finally, the analysis reveals that when the government faces restrictions on either the volume or the value of export subsidies, cheating reduces the distortionary effects of the policy on international markets. This is true irrespective of whether subsidies are paid to trading firms or to producers.