Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy‐wide model*‡

We examine the impact of dairy disaggregation and joint production on trade liberalisation outcomes in an economy‐wide model. Depending on parameterisation, our model includes either (i) a single dairy commodity, (ii) several dairy commodities without joint production or (iii) several dairy commodities with joint production. In a numerical application, we consider the removal of US tariffs on dairy exports from New Zealand (the world’s largest dairy exporter). We show that failing to account for joint production when dairy commodities are disaggregated leads to misleading results. Our preferred dairy production function differs from those used in other applied trade models. Our analysis can be used to determine when accounting for joint production in other sectors is important.     

乳品中有害生物的检测与控制

本文从乳品安全的角度出发,系统介绍了乳品中主要的有害生物及其检测与控制方法,目的在于为乳品的安全生产提供理论依据和相关的技术支持,这对乳品相关企业的生存发展和社会的繁荣稳定具有重要意义。     

Technology choice and efficiency on Australian dairy farms*

Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry, specifically the removal of price subsidies to ‘market milk’, as well as ongoing drought in many dairy regions, has placed considerable pressure on farm cash income and a search for ways in which dairy farms can be made to operate more efficiently. Using traditional farm survey data and a unique biannual data set on farm technology use, this paper estimates a stochastic production frontier and technical efficiency model for dairy farms in New South Wales and Victoria, determining the relative importance of each input in dairy production, the effects of key technology variables on farm efficiency, and overall farm profiles based on the efficiency rankings of dairy producers. Results show that production exhibits constant returns to scale and although feed concentration and the number of cows milked at peak season matter, the key determinants of differences in dairy farm efficiency are the type of dairy shed used and the proportion of irrigated farm area. Overall farm profiles indicate that those in the ‘high efficiency group’ largely employ either rotary or swing‐over dairy shed technology and have almost three times the proportional amount of land under irrigation.     

Impact of de-coupling agricultural support on dairy investment and milk production volume in Finland

This study analyses the impacts of de-coupling of agricultural support from production in Finland. A dynamic agricultural sector model, which includes 17 production regions and endogenous investments and technical change, is used in the analysis. Investment in different production techniques is dependent on the relative profitability and the spread of each technique in the population of heterogeneous farms. There are relatively few large farms which use efficient production techniques in Finland. De-coupling weakens the incentive for investment in dairy production and causes a temporary but significant slow down in dairy investments and technical change. Consequently, de-coupling is likely to result in a significant drop in milk and beef production in the next 10-20 year period if no corrective measures are taken in agricultural policy in less-favoured areas such as Finland. However, a slow recovery of investment and output levels are expected in the long run.     

Environmental Regulation and the Spatial Structure of the U.S. Dairy Sector

Substantial public scrutiny about adverse environmental impacts of the dairy sector has resulted in increased environmental regulations. A behavioral model of location and production is developed to examine the impacts of environmental regulations, traditional location factors, and agglomeration economies on the spatial structure and geographical location of dairy production. The results show that counties in the states with more stringent environmental regulations tend to lose dairy inventories to those with less stringent policies. There are substantially meaningful spatial patterns of dairy production. Current dairy production levels are positively correlated while changes in production levels are negatively correlated across counties.     

Environmental Externalities,Comparative Advantage,and the Location of Production: An Application to the Canadian Dairy Industry

The traditional theory of comparative advantage has not been well integrated with the theories of externalities and location. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework which undertakes such an integration at the firm and regional levels. We call this the General Equilibrium with Individual Spatial Heterogeneity and Externalities (GEISHE) model. We use the model to study the effect of spatial heterogeneity in emission intensity on the spatial distribution of production under a uniform emission standard. This model suggests that the introduction of an emission restriction can have differential effects on the spatial patterns of production, depending on local production intensity. We also present empirical analysis of intraprovincial movement of production for the Canadian dairy industry using 1996 and 2006 Census data. Ceteris paribus, areas that had higher dairy production intensities in 1996 also tended to experience higher declines in their dairy cow populations between 1996 and 2006, which is consistent with the GEISHE model. These results suggest that environmental pressure may change the patterns of comparative advantage within a supply managed industry, even if relocation of production across provincial boundaries is not permitted. Expression of environmental comparative advantages seems to be taking place within provinces.     

Establishing Indices of Genetic Merit Using Hedonic Pricing: An Application to Dairy Bulls in Alberta

This study investigates the use of hedonic pricing to identify the value of relevant production and type traits for dairy bulls in Alberta. A hedonic pricing model is estimated that considers semen price as a function of individual production and longevily characteristics for a sample of Holstein bulls. The results suggest that the most important characteristics used by Alberta daity producers in valuing dairy bulls are milk volume, protein and fat content, general conformation, body capacity and the popularity of the bull. For a given set of such characteristics, the probability that the bull's semen may be in short supply does not significantly affect the value. This methodology may be used to establish a method of forecasting semen prices for newly proven bulls. The valuation procedure may be easily updated and adjusted as producers'breeding objectives change over time because of the changing economic environment. The results of this analysis suggest that hedonic pricing may be a better method of placing a value on production and type characteristics for dairy bulls than the Lifetime Profit Index currently being used by the Canadian dairy industry.     

Internal and contextual drivers of dairy restructuring: evidence from French mountainous areas and post‐quota prospects

The end of the milk quota system in Europe has resulted in substantial structural changes to the dairy industry, calling its future into question, especially in mountainous areas. This study analyzes the internal and contextual factors that influence dairy restructuring in French mountainous areas. Three complementary logit models are used to specify farmer decisions (e.g., dairy production exit, stability, and growth). Original and exhaustive geo‐located administrative datasets are combined to create a farm longitudinal dataset and characterize farm‐restructuring patterns on a fine geographical scale. Farm size, corporate legal status, and specialization are positively associated with farm growth. Viable diversification strategies through either farm processing or agro‐environmental scheme contracting are also highlighted. Farm sustainability is supported by the economic success of the local industry and the propensity to adopt extensive practices. With respect to public policy, dairy policy appears to have the strongest impact. Thus, the liberalization of dairy policy threatens the future of dairy farming, particularly in areas with low milk density and no production under labels. This work calls for a policy that promotes the collective dimension of dairy farm performance. The current rural development policy alone may be insufficient to support farms’ long‐term sustainability.     

MARKET DISTORTIONS IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON THE BEEF AND DAIRY SECTORS

Intervention in the beef and dairy sectors has been the core of Brazilian agricultural policy. An econometric model of these sectors is used as a tool with which to measure the consequences of government-induced market distortions on prices, production, consumption and external trade. It is argued that large economic losses and a less egalitarian distribution of income have been the results of government policy to date.     

Energy productivity and greenhouse gas emission intensity in Dutch dairy farms: A Hicks–Moorsteen by-production approach under non-convexity and convexity with equivalence results

The agricultural sector is currently confronted with the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whilst maintaining or increasing production. Energy-saving technologies are often proposed as a partial solution, but the evidence on their ability to reduce GHG emissions remains mixed. Production economics provides methodological tools to analyse the nexus of agricultural production, energy use and GHG emissions. Convexity is predominantly maintained in agricultural production economics, despite various theoretical and empirical reasons to question it. Employing non-convex and convex frontier frameworks, this contribution evaluates energy productivity change (the ratio of aggregate output change to energy use change) and GHG emission intensity change (the ratio of GHG emission change to polluting input change) using Hicks-Moorsteen productivity formulations. We consider GHG emissions as by-products of the production process by using a multi-equation model. Given our empirical specification, non-convex and convex Hicks-Moorsteen indices can coincide under certain circumstances, which leads to a series of theoretical equivalence results. The empirical application focuses on 1,510 observations of Dutch dairy farms for the period of 2010–2019. The results show a positive association between energy productivity change and GHG emission intensity change, which calls into question the potential of on-farm, energy-efficiency-increasing measures to reduce GHG emission intensity.     

我国奶牛养殖区域布局的变动与成因——基于全国省级面板数据的实证研究

[目的]奶牛养殖业是奶业产业的起始环节,研究奶牛养殖区域布局演变规律和成因,是进一步优化奶牛养殖布局,提高奶牛综合生产能力,进而推进实现我国奶业振兴的现实要求。[方法]文章基于1996—2016年我国省级面板数据,对奶牛养殖区域布局情况进行描述性统计分析,并运用区域重心分析法综合考察奶牛养殖区域布局重心变动的轨迹和特征,选取个体固定效应模型对奶牛养殖区域布局变动的影响因素进行实证分析。[结果]计量结果表明,奶牛存栏滞后一期、奶牛存栏滞后二期、玉米年产量、大豆年产量、乳企数量、技术进步、财政政策支持和禁牧政策是影响奶牛养殖布局变动的主要因素,且影响程度有所不同。[结论]提出把握奶牛养殖区域变动规律、加强奶牛养殖生态环境建设、合理规划玉米与大豆的种植区域、加快奶牛养殖技术创新、优化乳制品企业布局、增加财政补贴等政策建议。     

The factors influencing the profitability of leased land on dairy farms in Ireland

The Republic of Ireland possesses a land market that is constrained by minimal sales each year, less than 1%. In an effort to capitalise on milk quota abolition and to increase dairy production, a suite of tax incentives has recently been introduced in the Republic of Ireland to encourage land mobility and long-term leasing among Irish dairy farmers. Using Irish Farm Accountancy Database Network (FADN) data from 2011–2017 to examine this, a Heckman sample selection model explores two aspects; (i) the factors that influence a farmer’s decision to rent, or continue renting, land and (ii) the profitability of dairy farmers renting in land. We find self-selection into the rental market is driven by farm traits that include a high level of hired labour, the presence of a successor, intensive farming practices and dairy discussion group membership. The results show that rental agreements assist farms in achieving economies of scale. The findings provide evidence to support government intervention such as tax incentives for renting out land and knowledge sharing discussion groups.     

Cost and trade impacts of environmental regulations: effluent control and the New Zealand dairy sector

New Zealand legislation sets standards for water quality. Nitrogen leaching from dairy effluent compromises these standards, with the consequent move being toward land-based effluent disposal. The cost of this to the dairy sector was estimated and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (GTAP) was used to investigate the impact of additional production costs on NZ's dairy export trade. Two scenarios were analysed: first, NZ acts unilaterally in imposing water quality regulations, second, the other principal dairy exporters act in a similar fashion. Changes in trade patterns vary from insignificant to large, depending on the scenario analysed.     

基于数据包络分析的乳制品企业供应链绩效对比研究

2008年中国奶制品污染事件已过去十多年,乳制品业经过这十多年的重新洗牌,呈现出另一番景象。根据相关新闻报道,某些曾经受到波及的企业经过这些年的精益求精,目前已成为行业中的领跑者,然而某些未受到影响反而在当时获利的企业却由于近年来管理决策不当,地位早已不复从前。本文为了解自中国奶制品污染事件以来不同企业在乳制品供应链各环节的效率差异,构建由生产加工环节与储运销售环节组成的两阶段数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)的效率测度模型,并运用软件将相关企业各环节投入产出数据代入模型进行分析讨论。结果表明,不同企业在供应链的不同环节各有优势,在各环节处于劣势的企业应向优势企业学习借鉴,并通过减小资源投入或提高技术能力,不断改进完善自我;乳制品供应链各环节对其整体效率的影响也各不相同,在实际管理过程中,管理者应根据影响程度的大小,合理设置权重以便更好地进行分析。     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming

This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.     

酸奶中益生菌的保健功效及研究进展

益生菌已被广泛应用于食品、医药保健和饲料等各个领域,而酸奶是益生菌最常见的载体,也是最受欢迎的益生菌产品。文章对酸奶中益生菌的种类特性、保健功效及研究进展等方面对其进行综述,为酸奶中的益生菌研究提供理论参考,同时也提出了未来益生菌在我国乳制品生产中的应用前景广阔。     

大城市居民低温奶产品消费及其影响因素分析以北京市为例

目的 低温奶产品是我国唯一可以与国际奶产品相抗衡的产品品类,未来低温奶产品必然在我国形成新的消费趋势,并成为复兴民族乳业的关键。基于此,探究大城市居民的低温奶产品消费认知水平、消费现状及其消费的影响因素既可开拓国内低温奶产品消费市场,也可弥补该产品消费研究的不足,对提高我国奶业国际竞争力具有重要现实意义。方法 文章通过使用2019年北京市8个辖区内的418位城镇居民乳制品消费调研数据,以不同群体特征作为切入点,深度分析大城市居民低温奶产品消费认知水平及消费现状,并借助Heckman两阶段模型考察个人及家庭特征和产品认知信息是否是影响城镇居民低温奶产品消费行为决策和消费水平的主要因素。结果 学生人口数、工作人口数、收入水平以及年龄、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策。年龄、教育水平以及性别、人口总数、职业因素分别影响居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费水平。营养价值、口感风味和制作工艺因素对居民巴氏杀菌奶消费行为决策和消费水平均有显著影响,而保质期和价格因素仅对消费行为决策有显著影响。口感风味、制作工艺和价格因素对居民低温酸奶消费行为决策影响显著,但只有口感风味因素对消费水平有显著影响。结论 城镇居民低温奶产品认知概念薄弱,对营养价值、口感风味和保质期信息的认知程度较高。低温奶产品消费具有区域性差异,消费主力集中在女性人群、40~50岁人群、高学历和高收入人群中。个人和家庭特征以及产品认知信息对城镇居民巴氏杀菌奶和低温酸奶的消费行为决策和消费水平均具有显著影响。未来我国大城市居民的乳制品消费将逐渐趋于新鲜化和休闲化发展,低温奶产品消费将发展为新兴消费趋势,液态奶产品消费结构逐步改善。     

Supply and demand for commodity components: implications of free trade versus the AUSFTA for the US dairy industry*

During the negotiations on the Australia–US free trade agreement (AUSFTA), the US dairy industry vigorously opposed opening the US market to imports of Australian dairy products on the grounds that the US industry would be devastated. Subsequently, the agreement signed in February 2004 made an exception for dairy, providing for only limited quota expansion and no free trade, even at the end of the long implementation period. This paper presents a simulation model of world dairy markets, represented by supply and demand equations for fat and non‐fat components of milk and manufactured dairy products. We use the model to analyse the effects on US milk markets of both a hypothetical agreement, allowing free bilateral trade in dairy products, and the actual AUSFTA. An important contribution to the literature is the derivation of explicit supply and demand relationships for milk components. The components model allows an analysis of long‐term production, consumption, and trade patterns that is not tied to specific, fungible products. Simulations indicate that increased imports from Australia resulting from bilateral trade liberalisation would have resulted in small reductions in US milk prices and production. The much smaller increases in Australian access to the US market under the actual AUSFTA will have even smaller, almost negligible, impacts.     

Dairy productivity and climatic conditions: econometric evidence from South‐eastern United States

Climate change and food security have become critical issues in the agricultural policy agenda. Although global warming is expected to increase both the frequency and severity of heat stress on dairy cattle, there are very few economic studies focusing on this issue. This paper contributes to the literature by integrating the frontier methodology, commonly used in applied production economics, with heat stress indexes used by animal scientists but largely ignored by economists. Our econometric models are useful to quantify gross benefits expected from adaptation to climatic conditions represented by the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and alternatively by the Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI). Stochastic production frontier analysis is used to measure technical efficiency for an unbalanced panel of 103 dairy farms located in Florida and Georgia. Five alternative model specifications are evaluated. The results reveal that both THI and ETI have a significant nonlinear negative effect on milk production. The climatic indexes when incorporated in the frontier specification absorb some of the output shortfall that otherwise would be attributable to inefficiency. The results indicate that using fans combined with sprinklers is an effective adaptation to offset output losses stemming from heat stress conditions.