利率市场化与利率改革的具体步骤

本文从分析利率市场化对于宏观经济调控和宏观金融改革的意义着手,利用实证分析和规范分析相结合的方法,借鉴国外的金融发展理论,分析了利率市场化和金融深化的关系、利率调整和经济增长的关系、利率调整和储蓄的关系,同时结合当前的宏观经济金融形势,指出了利率市场化与国有企业改革和商业银行改革之间的互动关系.作者认为,在现阶段应稳住存款利率,在一定程度放开贷款利率,由商业银行根据中央银行确定的存款利率、自身头寸、企业资信和项目风险状况进行贷款定价;同时采取措施促使国内利率市场化的条件不断完备,以完善一块放开一块的基本思路,最终实现金融国际和金融市场化.     

利率市场化的“势”与“行”——利率市场化的渐进式革新

利率市场化改革如何推进需要大智慧,作为经济市场化的必然选择,利率市场化需要各方经济体做好合理而有效的应对。市场化之“势”已然确立,各相关方需深思而缓行。     

我国民间金融的利率分析

本文从垄断和风险等若干视角探析了我国民间金融利率稳定在较高水平的原因,并给出了民间金融利率具有内在稳定性的特殊主义解释.分析表明:民间信贷市场的贷方垄断结构以及市场的分割决定了民间金融的高利率.相对于官方正式金融的低效率,民间金融高利率与高效率相伴随.基于互助共济的特殊主义关系和对特殊路径的依赖,人们愿意接受、维持这种高利率.由于缺少产权保护,民间金融普遍而系统性地承担了较高的制度或产权风险,这种风险内在地体现在稳定的高利率当中;特殊主义使高利率更为稳定.农村中的民间金融最为典型,因此本文的分析视角主要定位于农村的民间金融.     

走过利率市场化的经济体之鉴

目前,中国利率市场化改革取得了两方面进展：一是放松利率管制,推动金融机构自主定价,实现“贷款利率管下限、存款利率管上限”的阶段性目标;二是发展和完善市场利率体系,初步建立了以上海银行间同业拆放利率为代表的短期基准利率体系和以国债收益率为代表的中长期基准利率体系。最近,“十二五”规划纲要明确提出,     

THE TWO-STATE INTEREST RATE MODEL FOR PRICING BONDS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The two-state interest rate model is evaluated on the basis of its ability to price samples of government bonds. Its accuracy is shown to be comparable to that of a sophisticated continuous time model.     

利率市场化是商业银行发展正面因素

利率市场化提速对于商业银行参与市场竞争、转变经营方式,提高市场定价能力,应该具有积极意义。为此,建设银行已初步研究了一些方法应对利率市场化带来的挑战。     

THE RESPONSE OF FORWARD EXCHANGE RATES TO INTEREST RATE FORECASTING ERRORS

This paper examines the effects of interest rate news on changes in forward foreign exchange rates. Virtually none of the errors in forecasting forward exchange rates are explained by interest rate forecasting errors. The results are consistent with a conjecture that the forward exchange rate is not an estimate of the expected spot exchange rate.     

LONG-RUN RELATIONS IN EXCHANGE MARKETS: A TEST OF COVERED INTEREST PARITY

We examine long-run relations implied by covered interest parity (CIP) in possibly cointegrated and nonstationary data series. Empirical evidence suggests that, ignoring market imperfections, CIP failed over January 6, 1984, through December 6, 1991, using weekly data from four major currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. The multivariate maximum likelihood vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology does not require data differencing and hence retains valuable information lost in previous research examining international market flows. Rejections are robust to both subperiod analysis and alternative interest rate series. Although test rejections are highly statistically significant, attainable economic profits appear small. Practitioners will find economic profits inconsequential relative to reasonable bounds on market frictions such as transaction costs. Nonetheless, the use of CIP to determine forward rates identically from interest rates and spot rates in academic studies is called into question.     

利率市场化过程中的商业银行策略

作为一个重要的宏观经济变量,利率的变动对各经济主体的行为产生着重要影响。利率市场化将对中国的商业银行带来新的机遇与挑战。 利率市场化的本质,是让利率在储蓄向投资转化过程中充分发挥杠杆调节功能,从而使市场在金融资源配置中发挥更大的基础性作用。