The welfare effects of the antebellum tariff: A general equilibrium analysis

In this paper a general equilibrium model of the United States in 1859 is developed and solved using the Scarf algorithm. Such a formulation allows the U. S. equilibrium to be computed for differing parameter specifications, so that the comparative static effects of policies involving even very complex interactions within the economy may be analyzed. In this case, the general equilibrium effects of the tariff in the United States are examined by comparing the actual, or initial, equilibrium with a hypothetical equilibrium in which the tariff has been eliminated. We find that the South was in fact injured by the tariff; the price of cotton and the return to slaveholding would have both risen significantly with its elimination. The principal beneficiary of the tariff was free labor. Removal of the tariff would have produced a decrease in the real wage and a slight fall in the return to capital. Overall, real income in the United States would have declined by 1.07 to 1.09% as a result of tariff elimination, or by between $44 and $45 million in current prices. Alternative parameter specifications may produce different results, ranging from the Metzler paradox in the case of very inelastic substitution in R.O.W. consumer demand to cases of increases in real income with tariff elimination in the cases of elastic substitution in either R.O.W. or U. S. consumer demand. A final caveat in judging the results should be inserted here. Factor endowments for 1859 are taken as fixed. The comparative static results here answer the question: What would have the 1859 United States been like if the tariff had been eliminated, allowing time for full adjustment? No dynamic effects are taken into account, such as adjustments in factor supplies. Consequently, the 1859 United States that had consistently followed a free trade policy would have looked quite different from the one that pursued a policy of protection and then eliminated the tariff, which we consider here.     

State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks

The FBI has reported the number of monthly firearm background checks in every state since November 1998. This article uses data on background checks at the state level to explore the relationship between guns and crime. The background checks capture an individual's intention to purchase a firearm and explain 96% of the variation in gun manufacturing at a national level. Fixed effect negative binomial regressions show a positive, but insignificant, relationship between background checks and violent crimes. Property crimes are negatively related to background checks and statistically significant at the 10% level. The results suggest that gun control policies should be coupled with other initiatives if policy makers intend to reduce gun‐related crime.     

Inequality,Nonhomothetic Preferences,and Trade: A Gravity Approach

We construct the first direct classification of goods as luxuries or necessities that is compatible with international trade data. We then use it to test an idea that has not been tested directly in the literature: Countries' income distributions are important determinants of their import demand, and, in particular, of the difference in their import demands of luxuries versus necessities. We interpret this result with the aid of a model in which preferences are nonhomothetic, thus relaxing a long-held and standard—but empirically dubious—assumption in the theory of international trade. Our model is strongly borne out by the results: Imports of luxuries increase with the importing country's inequality, and imports of necessities decrease with it. Our calculations imply that if income distribution in the United States became as equal as in Canada, the United States would import about 9-13% fewer luxury goods and 13-19% more necessities.     

全面对外开放与区域协调发展:基于价值链互动视角

本文通过构建包含国内价值链(NVC)与全球价值链(GVC)联动的多区域投入产出模型,界定和区分了外需对中国国内各区域在GVC和NVC中增加值收益及增值能力的影响,进而分析了外需对国内区域垂直分工和协调发展的促进作用。结果发现,首先,1997-2012年外需对中国各区域增加值收益攀升具有显著促进作用,其中欧、美、日等发达经济体的拉动作用占主导地位但呈快速减弱趋势,而发展中经济体和世界其他地区(ROW)的拉动作用明显提升,这为中国全面对外开放战略的实施提供了经验依据。其次,外需驱动下中国东部沿海、南部沿海和京津地区在增加值收益快速提高的同时却陷入了NVC增值能力不足甚至为负的困境,而中西部地区受益于外需驱动下的国际和国内垂直分工效应增值能力得以提升。此外,我们还利用结构路径分析方法识别了外需对区域间增加值流转的生产层级特征以及关键生产路径分布,为价值链互动视角下中国分区域-分阶段的产业升级路径提供了有益参考和启示。     

新冠疫情对中美经贸关系的影响与应对措施

当前,新冠疫情已经演化为"全球性大流行病",对全球经济的威胁和冲击性影响已经变为现实问题。全球新冠疫情的蔓延和升级,很有可能对既有的全球价值链分工和贸易体系造成重要的冲击性影响,迫使地区性生产贸易网络体系发生被动式调整。全球新冠疫情在短期内会对中美经贸关系造成重大影响,从中长期来看,中美之间经贸关系取决于双方战略竞争格局和博弈结果。当前中国新冠疫情已经到了基本可控的阶段,进入刺激国内需求全面恢复的状态,必须充分利用刺激内需政策谋求中国经济在全球主要经济体中率先走出危机的这个先发优势,将之作为应对美国针对中国经济发起的战略竞争和遏制战略的重要手段。     

U.S. inflation and the import demand of Ghana and Nigeria, 1967–1976

Conclusion Even though our empirical findings have shown that the sensitivity of the U.S. import demand of Ghana and Nigeria to the U.S. inflation rate is significant, especially in the case of Ghana, the effect of the inflation rate on imports is considerably understated. This understatement in the case of an LDC, unlike the MDCs, is due to statistical, political, and economic reasons. We may be tempted to suggest that if imports from tied aid are netted out, the degree of downward bias would be the same for the LDCs and MDCs. But this would be incorrect since the initial imports give rise to more imports over the years. For example, agricultural machinery purchased with tied aid will give rise to the importation of spare parts, etc., over the years. Hence this is not a simple once-and-for-all phenomenon. Inflation in a more developed country (MDC), such as the United States, may therefore have a greater inimical impact on the welfare of an LDC. This impact may be reduced considerably if the LDC can rescue the element of market choice in its spending of loans and grants from the MDCs. The large increases in oil prices since 1973 have enhanced the wealth of Nigeria immensely and partly cushioned the impact of U.S. inflation on this country. However, the lower elasticities shown in the case of Ghana indicate that the inflation may have had a greater detrimental effect on its welfare. For even though inflation had a significant effect on its import demand, the recorded elasticity is much less than unity even after an upward adjustment. The greater the inelasticity of import demand the more the country is bled of its reserves during a period of rapid inflation in a trading partner like the United States.     

美联储量化宽松货币政策实施效果评估与现实借鉴

2008～2011年,美联储推出的两轮量化宽松货币政策(QE)实施效果与预期有较大落差。基于后凯恩斯主义的内生货币理论,由于货币供给来源于经济体的内生需求,因而中央银行无法外生控制货币供应量,也无法简单地通过量化宽松政策刺激银行体系扩大信贷投放,以达到对内提升需求、扩大就业的政策目标,而对外的货币贬值也不必然能有效改善贸易逆差。中国调控经济、应对危机应该弱化汇率制度对国内政策的限制,完善信贷的内生创造机制,有效发挥政府与市场的互动机制确保就业。     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate

This paper analyses how productivity differentials between the United States and the euro area drive the euro-dollar real exchange rate. We derive impulse responses from a two-sector new open economy macro (NOEM) model. These are used as sign restrictions to identify a structural vector autoregression. Our results show that the Balassa–Samuelson effect, through traded sector productivity shocks, is less important in explaining the variation in the euro-dollar exchange rate than are demand and nominal shocks. In particular, productivity can explain part of the appreciation of the dollar in the late 1990s only to the extent that it created a boost to aggregate demand in the United States. JEL no. F41, F31     

基于面板协整方法的日本入境旅游需求分析

基于日本入境旅游1980～2010年的相关数据,结合旅游需求的相关理论,日本入境旅游需求的主要影响因素进行实证检验。研究发现客源国的收入水平对于日本入境旅游需求的影响是非常显著的。旅游价格的提高,会降低美国和德国到日本的入境旅游需求。但是对于加拿大、英国、澳大利亚,旅游价格变动对于其是否选择到日本旅游是不显著的,旅游替代价格对于其是否选择到日本旅游是比较显著的。旅游替代价格与入境旅游需求呈负相关关系。入境旅游需求与客源国和目的地国之间的贸易水平呈正向的作用关系。汇率与日本入境旅游需求间呈显著的正向关系。     

Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment

A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances must include a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. Accordingly, import demand would decline in the United States and increase in China. Given non-homothetic demand preferences, the resulting change in the income distribution of global import demand affects both the intensity and pattern of other countries’ exports. Simulations suggest that, for the world economy, the net effect of this shift would be a decline in industrial exports, especially from labor-intensive sectors producing consumer durables. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects on trade and employment. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.     

后危机时代钢材出口业务的对策分析

对于钢材行业来说,它的发展取决于需求。美国金融危机对中国经济产生了较大的抑制,对国内外钢材市场的下游需求,也将会产生极大的消极影响。由于金融危机可能带来较长时间的经济困境,未来钢铁行业正面临着一个长期下滑的态势。要积极应对金融危机给钢材出口业务带来的影响,必须从宏观层面、企业层面两方面入手,构建良好的营销渠道,才能渡过难关。     

Shareholder‐ Versus Stakeholder‐Focused Japanese Companies: Firm Characteristics and Accounting Valuation*

Recent research has found that the value‐relevance of accounting variables depends not only on whether a country's accounting rules are code‐law oriented or common‐law oriented, but also on the reporting incentives created by the legal and business environment in which a firm operates. Therefore, for example, the earnings of firms in some countries with common‐law oriented rules but with code‐law incentives have more code‐law‐type characteristics. We further this research by examining whether this is true for firms facing the same accounting regime and institutional environment but different stakeholder‐related incentives. We find significant stakeholder‐related incentives across 23 Japanese firms listed in the United States and 23 Japanese firms not listed in the United States that are matched by industry and size. Although these firms face the same institutional environment and the same accounting regime, consistent with the differences in stakeholder‐related incentives, the earnings and book values of the firms listed in the more shareholder‐oriented U.S. markets have significantly more explanatory power for market value than those for firms not cross‐listed in the United States. These findings are unaffected by whether the reports are based on consolidated or parent‐only accounting or whether they are based on U.S. or Japanese GAAP, emphasizing the potential influence of reporting incentives at all levels on the effect of standardization, conversion, or harmonization of accounting methods globally.     

增加农民收入 扩大农村消费需求——美国的经验及我国的现实选择

如何增加农民收入、扩大农村消费是我国目前面临的现实而紧迫的问题。本文从通过对增加农民收入、扩大农村消费实施相对成功的美国经验进行研究比较,分析其对我国进一步扩大农村消费的可借鉴之处,并提出了我国增加农民收入、扩大农村消费的对策。     

Struggling against apartheid: The use of economic sanctions on South Africa

Conclusion It is clear that the United States is in a dominant position in relation to South Africa’s economy, which has an economic climate working against its decision to be isolated from world opinion. The apartheid policies have produced an economy that is severely distorted by its having a restricted market for its industrial products, a critical shortage of skilled labor, a high level of structural unemployment, a high and increasing military budget, and by its support of an economically unviable Bantustan system. These distortions, combined with record balance of payments deficits and a net disinvestment of foreign funds, have resulted in currency outflows that were covered by the United States providing decisive support for a $1.1 billion loan from the IMF. Contrary to the impression that has been promoted by the South African government, S.A. mineral exports are not crucial to the United States. However, South Africa does depend upon the United States for its export market of these minerals, which are essential for providing the necessary funds for governmental expenditures and foreign exchange that are needed in order to support its high import content industries. The large percentage that exports have in S.A.’s gross national product increases this vulnerability. Thus, if we look at the evidence, it is clear that the United States has viable sanctions that it can implement against South Africa’s inhuman political and social policies. Although the United States has these leverages it refuses to utilize them, even though it would be in its interest to do so. It is vital that those persons who are genuinely concerned about human rights and the apartheid system apply whatever pressure is necessary to force the U.S. government to immediately utilize these leverages in the form of sanctions that would force the S.A. government to change its policies. The black community must take the responsibility for leading this effort.     

后危机时代“美国制造”及其对中国经济的影响

后危机时代美国提出了以制造业为主的第二产业的复兴,增加生产和出口在美国经济中的比重。"美国制造"再度成为世人关注的热点。"美国制造"无疑会对"中国制造"造成冲击。面对挑战,中国应加强工业技术和产业升级,转变产业结构,加大消费在国民经济增长中的作用。     

Engel versus Baumol: Accounting for structural change using two centuries of U.S. data

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States.     

金融危机下凯恩斯主义与供给学派财政政策对中国经济的适用性分析

2007年由美国引起的金融危机给美国乃至全球带来了巨大的影响。我国也在出口、外汇等方面受到了影响。在金融危机背景下,结合我国国情在供需、税收和国家干预三方面对凯恩斯主义和供给学派的财政政策对中国经济适用性进行分析。     

Stability of the market for electrical energy

Summary The objective of this paper has been to develop a model of the demand and supply of electrical energy at the individual utility level. Using the model developed, the stability of the market was then investigated. An attempt has been made to incorporate the technological and institutional rigidities that result in a lag in the adjustment between the actual price in a period and an expected normal price which plays a central role in determining the quantity of electrical energy supplied. The model is estimated using data for two different utilities, one located in the western United States and another located in the eastern United States. It is found that expected normal price adjusts rather slowly to actual price, that the elasticity of supply with respect to expected normal price is negative, and most importantly, for the two utilities the market is stable. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Federal Energy Administration or the views of other Federal Energy Administration staff members.     

International equality of stock market returns

Real returns, excess returns, and nominal returns from stock markets in 11 developed countries are compared for the difference in their means and variances by using a new procedure to test their equality and to determine if one stock market dominates another. The sample period from January 1973 to September 1989 is divided into three subperiods. Results show that stock markets in the United States and Germany dominate those in the other countries in early sub-periods, but not in a recent sub-period, to indicate an increasing capital market integration. Integration with Germany has increased more than with the United States, due possibly to the European Monetary System.     

中美民航飞行人才培养模式比较研究

美国作为民航强国在飞行人才培养领域表现出色,值得进行深入研究和分析。通过对比中国和美国飞行人才培养模式存在的异同点,分析其差异产生的原因。结果表明,中美的飞行人才培养模式虽然差异较大,但都符合各自国情。随着中国通航产业发展和经济的发展,低空限制将会减小,未来中国飞行人才培养模式也会有所改变,美国飞行人才培养模式可以提供一定的借鉴。