A Semiparametric Analysis of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis

This paper considers a semiparametric regression model to test the various implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income (LCP) hypothesis proposed by Hall (1978). The semiparametric regression model does not require any parametric assumption on the functional form of the unknown utility function in our analysis. In contrast, the linear regression models frequently used in the literature are justified under specific parametric forms of the utility function and may lead to a misleading conclusion on the LCP hypothesis if the parameterization is incorrect. Using both linear and semiparametric regression models, tests of the martingale property of consumption along with several specification tests are performed on the U. S quarterly data from 1947 to 1990. The results from the semiparametric model do not differ significantly from those from the linear model and suggest some evidences against the implications of the LCP hypothesis. [C14]     

The Package Assignment Model

We study assignment problems where individuals trade packages consisting of several, rather than single, objects. Although buyers' reservations values are non-additive, efficient assignments can be formulated as a linear programming problem in which the pricing functions expressing duality may be non-linear in the objects constituting the packages. The interconnections among the linear programming formulation, Walrasian equilibrium, and the core are established. In the single seller (auction) version, a necessary and sufficient condition is given for the Vickrey payoff point to be implementable by a pricing equilibrium. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C62, D44, D51.     

What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?

We study the links between fiscal stimulus packages during times of crisis and households' liabilities. We do so by using household-level data on income and liabilities from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and estimating an empirical model along those in the literature on the consumption effects of these packages. We find that receiving a check from the government tends to translate into a reduction in outstanding liabilities for American households. This effect is robust to controlling for income levels and household size. The effects are driven by households whose income is below the median and by those who remain employed during the crisis.     

基于门限分位点回归的条件VaR风险度量

门限分位点回归模型是线性分位点回归模型的改进,是一种更加客观实际的非线性估计方法。利用该模型实证分析了单只股票(民生银行)的条件VaR。选择一种流动性风险指标作为条件,经过分析发现,由门限分位点回归模型得到结果能够更好地描述市场,也能更好地预测市场风险。     

包含货币因素的利率规则及其在我国的实证检验

本文根据新凯恩斯模型和货币需求方程,通过理论分析得到了包含货币因素的最优利率规则。该规则表明,货币增长率稳定性权重或货币需求方程的利率响应系数越大,利率规则的货币增长率响应系数越大,货币政策也就愈积极。然后,本文利用线性回归和门限回归方法及我国统计数据,从市场利率和管制利率两方面对利率规则进行了实证研究。估计结果表明,通胀系数、产出缺口和货币增长率各自的响应系数都大于0,这意味着利率规则能够保证当我国经济运行偏离均衡状态或央行目标时采取正确的政策调整方向,从而保证经济的平稳运行。货币高增长状态下各个变量的系数值都要稍微大于货币低增长状态下相应的系数值。     

Testing separate models with stochastic regressors

In this paper we generalize the R procedure to test a null linear regression model against a separate alternative in the context of generalized instrumental variable estimation, and thereby motivate the use of the standard F test. The relations between the F test and several one-degree-of-freedom separate tests are examined under the null, and the asymptotic distributions of the statistics are evaluated under local alternatives. It is shown that the one-degree-of-freedom tests can be more powerful than the F test under a Pesaran-type local alternative, and that the F test is more widely consistent than the one-degree-of-freedom tests.     

Weighted symmetric tests for a unit root: response functions,power, test dependence and test conflict

The most frequently applied test statistics for a unit root are the Dickey–Fuller tests, which are built into many econometric packages along with MacKinnon's empirical response functions. This article provides empirical response functions for some easy to compute alternative test statistics that are generally much more powerful than the Dickey–Fuller tests; specifically, these are the Dickey–Fuller tests and the weighted symmetric versions of the and tests. The empirical response functions presented here take into account adjustments for lag length in the maintained regression, and also extend the design of the simulation experiments compared to previous work. A second aspect of this study concerns the widespread practice in applied econometrics of using more than one test for the same feature without an assessment of the implications for the cumulative significance level and probability of test conflict. Tests for a unit root being are a leading example of this practice. Using the extended set of unit root tests considered here, the extent of test dependence is simulated and overall type one error calculated. Two empirical applications illustrate the key principles.     

A SIMPLE CORRECTION FOR LOCAL MISSPECIFICATION

In this note a method of updating, or correcting, ML estimates is outlined¹ when departures from the assumed model are detected but believed to be small. These corrections have a particular simple regression interpretation and are thus easily obtained from standard regression packages by the applied worker. Inferences may also be drawn based on the same regression.     

Robust Institutions

I propose to show how to translate the economic analysis of institutions developed in the tradition of worst case political economy into the lingua franca of robust statistics. An institution will be defined as contingent upon a design theory and the difficulty we consider is the use of the institution by the designer.The technical bridge between institutional robustness and statistical robustness is the the possibility of exploratory data analysis [EDA] with respect to the design theory. In an institutional context with EDA comes the recognition that the model is not completely specified, that we do not fully understand the structure of world before studying it. In a statistical context with EDA comes a non-normal error distribution.The relationship between evolutionary institutions and robust institutions is discussed. A conjecture that rule utilitarianism can be thought of as robust utilitarianism is defended with the historical example of William Paley's discussion of the utility of murder.     

创造性资产理论与中国企业国际化研发（R＆D）模式

本文在综述国际化R＆D理论的基础上，分析了国内外研究现状和中国企业国际化的实践；本文指出了中国企业国际化R＆D指导理论缺失的现象，提出了以创造性资产理论作为中国企业国际化R＆D指导理论的观点；针对跨国公司在华设立大量R＆D中心和中国市场国际竞争国内化的现实，提出了以内向国际化和外向国际化互动循环模式为中国企业获取国际化R＆D能力的途径。     

以多层生态战略破解先发者主导优势：以EDA为例

在集成电路产业超过半个世纪的发展历程中，电子设计自动化软件（EDA）应运而生并随着技术进步和产业分工不断演化和发展，成为今天贯穿集成电路全流程和驱动摩尔定律不断延续的基础支撑工具。尽管表现出极端重要性，但电子设计自动化软件的总体市场规模较小。从当前市场结构来看，美国企业处于先发优势和寡头垄断地位，我国在这一领域发展相对滞后且在美国打压背景下发展严重受限，这也成为我国集成电路产业被“卡脖子”的关键领域。在后发者突破先发者主导优势获取发展机会的过程中，电子设计自动化软件领域要尤其重视产业生态的参与和重构，通过在创新生态、产品生态、产业生态和国际竞争生态中实施多层生态战略，逐步构筑起后发企业的生态位优势，驱动电子设计自动化软件的高质量发展。基于生态赶超和发展的目标，未来在支持电子设计自动化软件发展过程中，应当在顶层设计、系统设计、产权保护等方面发挥国家的力量，同时强化在人才和基础创新中的短板，主动融入全球产业生态。     

The implications of job matching for retirement health insurance and leave benefits

This paper focuses on potential reasons for variations in benefit packages, in particular variations in the availability of retirement health insurance and leave. An important feature of our analysis is that we do not start with heterogeneity in workforces to explain fringe benefit differences across employers. It would be straightforward to say that differences across employers in fringe benefit packages simply represent differences in the preferences of their workforces. Rather, we focus on heterogeneity across employers as an important source of differences in fringe benefit packages. Preliminary evidence is found supportive of the predicted differences in the likelihood of such fringe benefits as retirement health insurance and leave based upon two variables–the extent of on-the-job training offered by the employer and the size of the employers. We also examine the implied links between these fringe benefits and such variables as average tenture and the proportion of the workforce that is female.     

基于无线生理传感器与虚拟现实技术的复愈性环境注意力恢复作用研究

基于卡普兰复愈性环境理论,运用脑机接口设备、智能腕带传感器等无线生理指标检测技术,测试大学生被试人群在沉浸式虚拟现实(VR)情境下,对4种复愈性环境及城市环境在注意力恢复和压力减轻方面的反应及其作用强度,获得被试在不同环境中脑电、心率、肌电的客观生理数据。采用非参数统计方法R语言对数据进行分析。结果显示,多数被试在复愈性环境中较城市环境表现出更好的注意力恢复效果。其中具有逃离性和迷人性特征的自然环境,复愈效果最为明显;在虚拟现实环境中,观赏城市环境图片也具有一定的复愈效果。     

Non Parametric Efficiency Measurement

Efficiency measurement using non parametric methods is increasing rapidly. One important initial step in measuring efficiency is deciding which software package to make use of. Here Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency packages are reviewed, including those which undertake Malmquist productivity analysis. While most packages are commercially available, the one which is not a commercial product has an obvious initial advantage.     

影响中国城镇居民储蓄因素的实证研究

依据1991-2006年的统计数据,建立多元线性回归模型,对影响中国城镇居民储蓄存款的主要因素进行实证分析的结果表明,城镇居民可支配收入和利率水平与居民储蓄正相关,物价水平与居民储蓄负相关,股票筹资额和制度因素与居民储蓄无关。因此,应从均衡发展、调整利率水平、健全社保制度等几方面调控城镇居民收入。     

我国高新技术上市公司R&D投资的融资约束——基于规模和所有权的实证分析

构造了高新技术上市公司R&D投资的融资约束模型,利用2008—2011年我国沪深两市A股高新技术上市公司的财务数据,从R&D投资对现金流的敏感性的视角,实证分析了高新技术上市企业R&D投资面临的融资约束,并进一步按企业规模和所有权的不同将样本企业分组进行回归分析。研究结果显示:R&D投资面临明显的融资约束,依赖于企业内部现金流量;相比大型高新技术企业,中小型高新技术企业的R&D投资更依赖其内部现金流量,面临更严重的外部融资困境;相比国有控股高新技术企业,非国有控股高新技术企业的R&D投资面临更严重的融资约束。提出:在转型经济背景下,我国政府应着力建设、完善与高新技术企业相匹配的多层次融资体系,缓解企业的融资约束,促进企业研发投入增加。     

Financial inclusion of Muslim minority in Vellore,Tamil Nadu

The study aims to identify the potential determinants of financial inclusion and its impact on the Indian Muslim minority in Tamil Nadu. statistical package for social science and analysis of moment structures software packages were used in the study. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling techniques were applied to examine the collected data (n = 300) from the Vellore district from April 2022 to March 2023. The study reveals that financial awareness, access and quality positively and significantly impact financial inclusion. However, the financial usage dimension is statistically insignificant. Additionally, the results from the moderation effect reveal that financial access and quality, along with age and annual income, significantly influence financial inclusion. In conclusion, the study contributes new dimensions to the existing literature by exploring the financial inclusion of Muslims and suggests implications and future scope for further research.     

江苏省电力消费与产业结构的实证分析--基于多元线形回归分析

文章对江苏2000—2010年产业结构演变中三次产业的电力消费情况进行多元线形回归分析,通过对偏回归系数的计算与分析,提出需要注重产业融合发展,强化产业承载能力等建议。     

Economic freedom and growth. Which policies matter the most?

Empirical studies provide evidence that economic freedom, as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World Index, is related to economic growth. None the less, identifying which aspects of economic freedom are more conducive to growth has proven difficult, due to multicollinearity among the index areas. A possible explanation is that certain countries score high in all areas, whereas others tend do bad in all of them, simply because the former are more freedom-friendly than the latter. However, it is also true that each country presents a combination of freedoms, and restrictions to freedom, at the level of the individual indicators that make up each area. If some regularity exists with respect to these combinations, empirical detection of the most popular policy combinations would alleviate the collinearity problem, when assessing growth effects. Our article explores this possibility by means of cluster analysis, which we conduct at the individual indicator level. We show that multicollinearity can indeed be reduced in this way and identify policy packages that seem to be more conducive to economic growth than others. Results further indicate that certain policy packages may have only a short-term effect on growth, whereas others seem to have an enduring one.     

Ascending price Vickrey auctions

We show that an ascending price auction for multiple units of a homogeneous object proposed by Ausubel (i) raises prices for packages until they reach those nonlinear and non-anonymous market clearing prices at which bidders get their marginal products and (ii) the auction is a primal–dual algorithm applied to an appropriate linear programming formulation in which the dual solution yields those same market clearing prices. We emphasize the similarities with efficient incentive compatible ascending price auctions to implement Vickrey payments when there is a single object or when objects are heterogeneous but each buyer does not desire more than one unit. A potential benefit of these common threads is that it helps to establish the principles upon which Vickrey payments may be implemented through decentralized, incentive compatible procedures.