World economy

Although uncertainties have clearly increased this year and pose downside risks to growth, the latest batch of timely activity indicators suggests that in the shorter term the global economy is resilient to these worries. Given this, we see global GDP growing by 3.1% this year and 2.9% in 2019, just 0.1pp lower than our forecast three months ago and similar to last year's 3% increase.     

World economy

Financial market moves in recent months suggest that there is increasing concern about a substantial global growth slowdown or even a recession. But we continue to see this as an over‐reaction to the weakening economic data; while the downside risks to the global outlook have clearly risen, our baseline forecast shows GDP growth of 2.7% in both 2019 and 2020, little changed from three months ago and only a touch weaker than the likely 3% rise in 2018.     

World economy

The ongoing soft tone of the latest data confirms that the global economic slowdown continues and the risk that this year will see the weakest GDP growth of the postcrisis period is rising. But with policymakers now expected to turn dovish words into actions soon, we still think recession risks remain low.     

World economy

Further evidence that the global economy ended last year on a high note is consistent with our view that world GDP growth in 2018 will be around 3.2%. This would be a little better than the likely rise of 3% in 2017 and the best annual outturn since 2011.     

World economy

2016 has got off to a shaky start, with sharp declines in global equity markets and renewed jitters about China and its currency. Recent asset market trends have prompted some observers to suggest a high risk of a global recession this year.     

World economy

The strengthening dollar is now becoming a significant factor for global growth and our forecasts. The tradeweighted dollar is up over 5% since the start of the year and over 15% on a year ago.…     

World economy

Despite the mounting threat of more protectionist trade measures, we expect the impact on global growth and trade to be mild. Given this, and the still fairly solid underlying economic picture, we see global GDP growing by 3.2% in 2018 and 3% next year, similar to last year's 3% increase.     

World economy

The recent run of soft survey data suggests that an imminent rebound in global GDP growth is unlikely and that concerns about slowing growth and trade tensions may now be taking a toll on service sector activity. We still forecast global GDP growth to slow into early next year but while recession risks have increased, we do not see this as the most likely scenario. In both 2019 and 2020 as whole we expect global GDP growth to average 2.5% each year, the weakest rate since 2009.     

World economy

The global macroeconomic picture has altered significantly over the past few months in the wake of the collapse in world oil prices. Brent crude prices dipped below US$50 per barrel in early 2015, less than half of their peak levels of mid‐2014…     

World economy

Following estimated GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016 – which was the lowest since 2009 – we expect the global economy to accelerate this year. We forecast GDP growth at 2.7% in 2017 and then see it accelerating further to 3.0% in 2018, both 0.1 percentage points up from our previous projections from January.     

World economy

Global growth has tended to hit ‘soft patches’ at the start of recent years and some indicators are again pointing in that direction at present…     

World economy

With much of the global economy now in some form of lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, we expect world GDP to contract by about 7% in H1 2020. Activity is expected to rebound sharply in H2, but even so the severity of the shock is likely to lead to a permanent GDP loss for the global economy. Over 2020 as a whole, we now expect GDP to shrink by 2.8%, compared to our forecast for a 2.5% rise three months ago, before the coronavirus outbreak became widespread.     

World economy

Although recent developments suggest that the risks of an escalation in US-China trade tensions have eased, we doubt this will deliver a significant boost to the global economy. We still expect world GDP growth of just 2.5% this year, the weakest since the global financial crisis, after an estimated 2.6% in 2019. But over the past three months, the risks around the forecast now seem less skewed to the downside.     

World economy

We expect the solid and broad‐based world recovery to continue, and still see a slight pick‐up in global GDP growth from 2.9% this year (up from 2.8% in July) to 3.0% in 2018 (unchanged from three months ago). This points to the most sustained period of robust global growth since the initial recovery from the financial crisis.     

World economy

Following estimated GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016 – the lowest since 2009 – we expect the global economy to accelerate this year. We forecast GDP growth at 2.8% in 2017 (which is up 0.1 percentage points up from our previous projections from April) and then see it accelerating further to 3.0% in 2018 (unchanged).     

World economy

Following estimated GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016 – which was the lowest since 2009 – we expect the global economy to accelerate this year. We forecast GDP growth at 2.6% in 2017 and then see it accelerating further to 2.9% in 2018.     

World economy

The dire economic data for the lockdown period confirms that the coronavirus pandemic has caused unprecedented and widespread damage to the global economy. We now expect the global economy to have contracted by over 9% in the first half of 2020, while growth should rebound sharply in the second half of the year, we now expect GDP to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 as a whole, much weaker than the 2.8% contraction we anticipated three months ago.     

World economy

Prospects for early‐2019 remain downbeat, but the latest data offer some glimmers of hope that growth is beginning to stabilise. We continue to expect easier financial conditions and other policy support to trigger a modest acceleration in global GDP growth in the latter part of 2019.     

World economy

The global economic recovery still lacks momentum, and growth is proceeding at markedly different speeds in different regions…