Premarital Birth Among Young Hispanic Women: Evidence from Semiparametric Competing Risks Analysis

The existing literature on welfare effects on marriage and fertility has largely focused on groups of white and black women. By contrast, Hispanic women have received little attention. This paper examines the effects of welfare generosity on a sample of young Hispanic women’s premarital fertility and marriage choices. A bivariate competing risks duration model framework allows us to identify the process of young women’s premarital fertility and the process of marriage, effectively controlling for observed characteristics and unobservables. Our findings indicate a 10% increase in welfare generosity results in a 10% increase in premarital births and a 7% decrease in marriages by age 24; both effects are significant.

Fathers' whereabouts and children's welfare in Malawi

Children's welfare may be affected by the absence of a parent – be it due to migration, divorce or death. These reasons for absence have largely been addressed separately in the literature; we present a unified framework. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from Malawi, we compare welfare indicators for four categories of children: those who live with both parents, and those who live with their mother but whose father is absent due to migration, divorce, or death. We find a clear pattern of welfare differences: children whose father is either present or a migrant are better off, and children whose father is deceased or whose parents are divorced are worse off. Our findings indicate that concern about the welfare of migrants' children might be exaggerated. By contrast, vulnerable children of divorcees are at risk of being overlooked in a policy environment that focuses on orphans.     

A dynamic model of family formation and dissolution for the United States

Conclusion The purpose of this paper has been to develop a macroeconomic model of marriage and divorce for the United States for the period 1921–1974. The model has been estimated in both levels and first differences, using two different measures for marriage and divorce rates. The fit of the equations is very good. The major explanatory variables are statistically significant and of the expected sign in both versions of the model (levels and first differences). GNP has a positive effect on both marriage and divorce rates. Female labor force participation has a positive effect on divorce and a negative effect on marriage, indicating that the rise in the female market potential is a significant factor in explaining behavior of these two variables. Fertility has a positive effect on marriage and a negative effect on divorce, indicating that the presence of children has some stabilizing effect on marriage.More work remains to be done. The model has to be dynamically simulated in order to test its ability to forecast both within and outside of the sample period, i.e., 1975–1980. There is also a need to introduce more demographic variables, such as sex ratio, age at first marriage, and race, and to disaggregate the model.     

众里寻他!?——一个基于婚姻匹配理论的综述

家庭作为社会经济生活的最小单位,继Becker的开创性研究之后,成为经济学研究的新领域。对于婚姻的研究不仅涉及到微观个体的选择及福祉,而且也通过影响人力资本积累、收入分配等影响社会不平等。通过梳理婚姻的匹配模型、婚姻的形成方式、婚姻带来的转移支付以及婚姻的解体,文章对相关研究进行了综述。并立足于我国婚姻是两个家庭之间的联姻这种特有现象,结合我国目前劳动力流动和城市化带来的经济发展背景下,由于户籍导致的城乡分割引致的特有的婚姻匹配模式,对于未来的研究进行了展望。     

The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles

I introduce behavioral asset pricing rules into a wider dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Asset price bubbles emerged endogenously within the model. I find that in this model monetary policy rules that target the mispricing of the asset have a destabilizing effect; however, a monetary policy rule that targets deviations in the price of the asset from its trend can be welfare enhancing. Such a rule would also have the benefit of being straightforward to implement.     

An Earned Income Tax Credit in the Netherlands: Simulations with the MIMIC Model

In recent policy discussions in the Netherlands, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been put forward as an instrument to reduce the unemployment rate among low-skilled workers. Using MIMIC, CPB's applied general equilibrium model for the Netherlands, this article discusses the economic impact of different forms of the EITC. The analysis reveals that moderately targeting the EITC to the unskilled makes the instrument more effective in reducing unemployment. The targeting concept features decreasing returns, however. Indeed, it may be counterproductive if the EITC is targeted at a very small income range. Furthermore, targeting the EITC to the low skilled induces adverse effects on the quality and quantity of labour supply because it raises the marginal tax burden on medium-income workers.     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

Bilateral Trade, Openness, and Asset Holdings

This paper analyzes the relationship between bilateral trade flows, trade openness, and asset holdings in a three-country stochastic general equilibrium model. The three-country model set-up enables me to disentangle the effects of bilateral trade flows and trade openness on bilateral portfolio patterns. I find that both factors independently influence bilateral asset holdings. Higher bilateral trade as well as higher trade openness lead to a higher bilateral foreign asset position. Furthermore, the model shows an interaction effect between these two factors, where increasing trade openness reduces the influence of bilateral trade flows on asset holdings. I provide supporting empirical evidence for these theoretical findings using a data set on the geographical composition of international portfolio holdings.     

Lending Rate Spread Shock and Monetary Policy Arrangements: A Small Open Economy Model for ASEAN Countries

We investigate the welfare implications of monetary policy arrangements in a small open economy, considering firms' bank‐based finances that are widely observed in emerging ASEAN countries. The impact of an unexpected change in the lending rate spread, or a lending rate spread shock, depends on the presence of banking activity in the economy. This presence is important in Malaysia and Vietnam, where welfare effects of this type of shock are at least comparable to those of foreign monetary policy shocks. We also find that a rigid exchange rate arrangement amplifies the effect of a shock.     

STABILIZATION POLICY, LEARNING-BY-DOING, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper shows that fiscal policy, when used for stabilizationpurposes, can have a positive effect on the economy's growth,on human capital accumulation, and on welfare. We introducestochastic productivity shocks into a model in which productivityis augmented through learning-by-doing If future benefits oflearning-by-doing are not fully internalized by workers, thenrecessions are periods in which opportunities for acquiringexperience are foregone. We identify configurations of disturbancesand other parameters for which a countercyclical policy maximizesgrowth and welfare.     

Capital Flows,Financial Intermediation and Macroprudential Policies

This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with an optimizing banking sector to assess the role of capital flows, macro-financial linkages, and macroprudential policies. The key result is that macroprudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Countercyclical macroprudential polices can help reduce macroeconomic volatility and enhance welfare. The results also demonstrate the importance of capital flows and financial stability for business cycle fluctuations as well as the role of supply side financial accelerator effects in the amplification and propagation of shocks.     

分手快乐?——离婚对个体幸福感的影响

中国离婚率连年快速攀升引发了广泛关注，但鲜有文献定量评估离婚对个体主观福利的影响。文章首次采用追踪数据（CFPS）定量评估了离婚对个体主观福利的冲击及其动态演变，为理解中国居高不下的离婚率提供了一个新观察视角。控制个体固定效应和时间固定效应后，离婚对个体幸福感产生了显著短暂的负向冲击。按自评收入分为5个阶层，离婚当年人们遭受的幸福感损失，相当于从中等阶层下滑到最低阶层。离婚对幸福感不存在长期影响，离婚者与从未离婚者之间的幸福感落差在离婚3年后即基本消失；是否再婚在其中扮演着重要角色。尽管男女、城乡、不同教育水平、有无子女等不同群组幸福感受离婚影响的程度存在差异，但均呈现出共同动态演变趋势。考虑到离婚个体在离婚前夕的幸福感水平，应该已经低于其他已婚者，那么离婚应该提升了他们的幸福感。离异者幸福感恢复迅速表明在遭受巨大打击后，其心理上表现出惊人的自我修复能力。中国离婚主观成本相对较低，或是离婚率高企的重要原因。应该审慎地看待离婚对幸福感没有长期影响的结论，该结论不应被视为支持乃至鼓励中国居民离婚的经验证据。本研究仅显示：一个离过婚的人，也可以像常人一样幸福快乐。     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

中国清洁能源产品偷吃美国政策福利了吗

在补贴强度一致的情况下,不管补贴方式有何差异,清洁能源产品生产者和消费者获得的补贴分享是相同的。美国对消费环节补贴会流入中国生产企业,中国对生产环节的补贴同样也流入了美国消费环节。从整个清洁能源产业来看,中国是否"偷吃"了美国的政策福利取决于该产业的供求函数。     

Optimal Tax Theory: The Journey from the Negative Income Tax to the Earned Income Tax Credit

What lessons do we learn from optimal tax theory for the design of income redistribution programs? I modify a standard model of optimal nonlinear income taxation with discrete types to consider differences in both earning ability and the disutility of effort. This gives a role for “workfare” in the optimal tax policy. The existence of screening mechanisms can play a role in explaining non‐participation in cash and in‐kind redistribution programs, including Progresa‐Oportunidades, Lifeline Telephone subsidies, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Stigma can increase efficiency of a redistribution program by discouraging participation by individuals near the eligibility thresholds. The Family Assistance Program proposed in the early 1970s lacked adequate stigma for nonworkers, which contributed to a lack of political support. In contrast, the current Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) provides greater benefits to workers than to nonworkers. Thus the EITC does not require any stigma to screen out individuals who do not work from obtaining benefits. Reasons for separate income support programs for nonworkers and for workers are discussed.     

Capital market distortion,firm entry and wage inequality

Distortions in the capital market are notable in developing economies like China. By building up a dual production structure with oligopolistic competition in urban manufacturing, this paper investigates the distributional and welfare effects of capital market distortions. We find that in the short run, an increase in the capital market distortion in favor of urban firms can lower both the skilled and unskilled wages. However, in the long run, the preferential policy on reducing capital cost to the urban sector attracts new entry of firms, which can worsen the skilled-unskilled wage inequality in the economy. This firm-entry effect of the capital market distortion on wage inequality is empirically confirmed for China.     

金融冲击、货币政策与宏观审慎政策—基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

通过建立包含房地产市场金融冲击的NK-DSGE模型,考察了我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的效果。通过比较不同政策机制下金融冲击的脉冲响应函数可以发现,宏观审慎政策的引入缓和了金融冲击的效应,并且可以同时实现稳定物价和稳定金融系统的目的。社会福利分析的结果表明：(1)金融冲击下,仅对产出缺口和通胀做出反应的政策具有最低的社会福利水平;(2)如果货币政策考虑信贷市场,并同时使用反周期性宏观审慎政策,那么社会福利将得到明显的提高。这意味着金融冲击下,政府应该积极行使对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策相结合的政策机制。当前,在房地产市场整体不景气的背景下,我国政府积极利用金融冲击对房地产市场进行调控。因此,采用对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策将具有相对较好的政策效果。     

Delaying the Normal and Early Retirement Ages in Spain: Behavioural and Welfare Consequences for Employed and Unemployed Workers

In this paper, we explore the links between pension reform, early retirement, and the use of unemployment as an alternative pathway to retirement. We use a dynamic rational expectations model to analyze the search and retirement behaviour of employed and unemployed workers aged 50 or over. The model is calibrated to reproduce the main reemployment and retirement patterns observed between 2002 and 2008 in Spain. It is subsequently used to analyze the effects of the 2011 pension reform in Spain, characterized by 2-year delays in both the early and the normal retirement ages. We find that this reform generates large increases in labour supply and sizable cuts in pension costs, but these are achieved at the expense of very large welfare losses, especially among unemployed workers. As an alternative, we propose leaving the early retirement age unchanged, but penalizing the minimum pension (reducing its generosity in parallel to the cuts imposed on individual pension benefits, and making it more actuarially fair with age). This alternative reform strikes a better balance between individual welfare and labour supply stimulus.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through,Unemployment and Optimal Implementable Monetary Policy Rule for Emerging Economies

Abstract

This paper develops a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and search-matching frictions to study the implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy in emerging countries. I find that, with complete exchange rate pass-through, the optimal policy rule features unemployment targeting as well as inflation targeting. However, the welfare gain from responding to unemployment fluctuations diminishes as the rate of exchange rate pass-through to import prices decreases. With low exchange rate pass-through, the optimal monetary policy is strict inflation targeting.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Cash Flow and Dividend Changes in Nigeria

The purpose of this study is to re‐evaluate the incremental information content of cash flows in explaining dividend changes, given earnings. I carry out an 882 firm‐year study by analysing the dividend changes‐cash flow relationship on a sample of 63 quoted firms in Nigeria over a wider testing period from 1984 to 1997. Despite the fact that I used a wider testing period than previous studies and more refined cash flow measures than previous studies, I also introduced dummy variables to capture economic policy changes in the economy. The association of cash flows with dividend changes is tested using the modified Lintner‐Brittain model as adopted in Charitou and Vafeas (1998) on pooled cross sectional/time series data from the full sample of observations from 1984‐97. The models are estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and I do find a significant relationship between dividend changes and cash flow unlike previous studies. The empirical results reveal that the relationship between cash flows and dividend changes depend substantially on the level of growth, the capital structure choice, size of each firm and economic policy changes.