日元升值对经济影响的综合分析

一国汇率的大幅度变动对该国的经济无疑会产生直接和间接的影响。这种影响究竟是正面的还是负面的,本文拟通过考察日元升值对经济的波及渠道,分析日元升值对日本实体经济的影响,从而评判日元升值的综合效应。日元升值对日本经济的正面影响是:节省了进口成本,通过技术优势增强竞争力,促进产品结构的调整,推进日元国际化;负面影响是:出现长时间的产业空洞化,实施低利率政策导致泡沫的出现。     

Sequential loss of self-control: Exploring the antecedents and consequences of student credit card debt

Self-control lapses not only impact credit card debt, but combined with this debt lead to further self-control lapses and life stressors for consumers. A causal model is developed and tested exploring college students’ pre-/post-debt decisions as a series of sequential losses in self-control, and how initial and post-failure decisions impact financial anxiety. Pre-debt loss of control takes on two forms: materialism and impulsivity. Locus of control theory is used to test how post-failure self-control lapses negatively impact the psychological well-being of consumers. A better understanding of these time-ordered self-control mechanisms offers insights for developing educational and policy interventions useful for staving off self-control lapses early in the decision-making process.     

An empirical investigation of the impact of audit and auditor characteristics on auditor performance

We use a unique and confidential database of 15,392 tax audits performed by the Croatian Tax Administration during the 2002–2006 period to examine the impact of task complexity, auditor experience, and auditor effort on audit performance. We provide external validation to prior experimental and analytical research showing that task complexity decreases while auditor experience and effort increase audit performance. We also extend this literature by examining the roles of task complexity and experience in moderating the impact of the effort on audit performance. We find that task complexity mitigates, while experience enhances the positive relationship between auditor effort and performance. However, we also find that auditor experience reinforces the positive effect of auditor effort on performance to a greater degree when complexity is high. Taken together, our findings provide new evidence on how audit and auditor characteristics impact audit performance, and new insight into how task complexity and auditor experience separately and jointly moderate the impact of auditor effort on performance.     

商业银行应对经济周期下行的国际经验及对中国的启示

经济周期的变化将对我国银行业产生较大的影响。本文对经济周期影响商业银行的传导路径理论以及相关实证研究进行综述,在此基础上研究了国际银行业应对经济周期下行的经验,并就我国银行业应对当前经济环境提出了建议。     

The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability

This article examines empirically how domestic structural characteristicsrelated to openness and product- and factor-market flexibilityinfluence the impact of terms of trade shocks on aggregate output.Applying semistructural vector autoregressions to a panel of88 countries with annual observations for the period 1974–2000,the analysis isolates and standardizes the shocks, estimatestheir impact on GDP, and examines how this impact depends onthe domestic conditions outlined above. The article finds thatgreater trade openness magnifies the output impact of termsof trade shocks, particularly negative ones, while financialopenness reduces their impact. Flexibility of labor and firm-entryare beneficial, with labor flexibility dampening the impactof negative shocks and ease of firm-entry magnifying positiveones only. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced rolein stabilizing the economy. Analysis of interactions acrossstructural determinants reveals complementarities among macroeconomicconditions (trade and financial openness and depth) and, separately,among microeconomic conditions (flexibility of labor marketsand ease of firm-entry). Variables across these groups tendto behave as substitutes for each other.     

Brand credibility and customer-based brand equity: a service recovery perspective

Journal of Financial Services Marketing - The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of perceived justice on satisfaction with service recovery and how this satisfaction with service recovery...     

宏观经济政策与微观企业行为——拓展会计与财务研究新领域

本文首先回顾国际主流会计学术研究近年来遇到的挑战与质疑,然后提出以宏观经济政策与微观企业行为互动为基础的会计与财务研究框架,并以货币政策变动对企业融资、会计选择、经营业绩的影响为例说明这个框架对会计与财务研究可能产生的影响。本文认为结合宏观经济政策与微观企业行为互动作用的研究可能拓展会计与财务研究的新领域。     

The role of metaphors in the development of technologies. The case of the artificial intelligence

Technology plays a prominent role in configuring the way we live and work. In this paper we go further and think that it is a first level driver in the configuration of our deepest perceptions and has a paramount influence on shaping our worldviews and metaphors, though this aspect goes unnoticed for most of the population.In this paper we analyze how metaphors take action in the characterization of technologies, mainly emerging technologies, and in their evolution, and furthermore the impact of technologies and metaphors on the way we perceive our daily life. We analyze metaphors underlying brain nature and artificial intelligence, raising the connections between them and showing how metaphors in one of these fields impact on the way we understand the other. This fact has important consequences, for instance it conditions the evolution of computational systems, and we propose two scenarios for this evolution.This paper relies on the conceptual model and classification of metaphors proposed by Lakoff and Johnson in “Metaphors we live by”, from the orientational metaphors that show values and mantras, to the deepest structural metaphors that are reconfiguring how life is conceived. It also relies on CLA (Causal Layered Analysis) and to its reference book “CLA 2.0” in order to insert this analysis in a wider and future oriented framework and to analyze scenarios.     

Attitudes Towards Income Risk in the Presence of Quantity Constraints

Considering a consumer with standard preferences, I trace out how quantity constraints on markets impact on relative risk aversion and prudence. I first show how this impact decomposes into a local curvature effect and an endogenously changing risk aversion/prudence effect. Next, I calibrate both effects on relative risk aversion and prudence, using estimates on household demand for durables and labour supply. The calibrations show that commitments to durable goods have large effects on attitudes towards risk. And while small wedges between realised and desired levels of labour supply have only moderate effects, becoming full time unemployed on a 60 per cent unemployment benefit significantly raises risk aversion and prudence.     

Social impact measurement: What can impact investment practices and the policy evaluation paradigm learn from each other?

In the past decade, public authorities around the world have fostered an increasing interest for social enterprises and the ways to develop and scale them. Part of this interest has focused on better understanding social enterprises’ impact, especially through practices derived from impact investing and philanthropy such as social impact measurement (SIM). This paper looks at the differences between “traditional” policy (or programme evaluation - PE) as it is carried out by public actors and SIM as it is practiced by impact investors and the stakeholders they support (particularly social enterprises), focusing on what can be learnt from these gaps. We take the case of France, where we compare public praxis for both SIM and PE based on a documentary analysis and complementary interviews. We find that both disciplines are bridged by a common theoretical foundation and, to a certain extent, by participative approaches. We also identify three main gaps, which are (i) the way outcomes are treated in PE and SIM; (ii) how stakeholder participation is managed and how it affects the ownership of the evaluation process by the involved parties; and (iii) how metrics and indicators are approached. We assess the benefits and drawbacks associated with each gap, we determine ways to bridge them and we identify five forces contributing to their creation.     

The impact of family control on the use of performance measures in strategic target setting and incentive compensation: A research note

This paper deals with the impact of a firm's governance structure on its management control system (MCS). We argue that the involvement of founding family members in the top management team (TMT) as a corporate governance characteristic has an impact on how the TMT exercises control over subordinates. Based on a sample of 304 mainly small and medium-sized firms, our paper provides empirical evidence that founding family involvement in the TMT is associated with the latter making less use of performance measures in its strategic target setting and incentive practices, and that this impact of family involvement is moderated by firm size.     

政府行为对技术性贸易壁垒形成的影响

本文首先从国际贸易发展的角度分析了贸易保护主义存在的长久性,以及在当今的贸易环境下技术性贸易壁垒成为贸易保护主义的新手段,进而提出应对这种壁垒,建立技术性贸易壁垒预警系统成为当务之急,然后着重分析了政府行为如何影响技术性贸易壁垒的形成,以对政府行为这个影响因素进一步细分量化作为预警系统的一个重要输入变量的研究做准备.     

Do financial factors affect the capital–labour ratio? Evidence from UK firm-level data

This paper analyses how firms’ capital–labour ratio is affected by cash flow, leverage, and collateral, and how this effect differs at firms more and less likely to face financing constraints using a rich UK firm-level data set. It is common in the literature to examine the impact of financial constraints on hiring and firing decisions separately from their impact on decisions related to investment in physical capital. We argue that as long as firms use both inputs in production and there is some substitutability between them, the two decisions need to be jointly analysed. When we differentiate across firms that are more or less financially constrained, we find that the former group exhibits higher sensitivities of the capital–labour ratio to firm-specific characteristics compared to the latter.     

智能化对中国劳动力市场的影响——基于就业广度和强度的分析

随着自动化、智能化技术的不断发展,越来越多的工作岗位可能被机器和人工智能所替代。本文将美国劳工部标准职业代码与中国职业代码相匹配,基于Frey and Osborne(2017)对美国各种职业被智能化替代概率的估计结果,估算了中国各职业被智能化替代的概率,并在此基础上计算了城市层面的被替代指标。接下来,利用多个年份的人口普查和家庭调查微观数据以及欧盟的机器人使用数据,本文在城市层面和个人层面估计了智能化对就业广度(就业人数)和就业强度(工作时长)的影响。研究发现,智能化对中国劳动就业产生了明显的替代作用,一方面减少了就业人数的增长,另一方面却增加了在职劳动力的工作时间,分样本分析发现女性、低教育劳动者、大龄劳动者、移民等劳动力市场中相对脆弱的群体所受的冲击更大。     

Creating dynamic tensions through a balanced use of management control systems

This paper explores how organisations balance controlling and enabling uses of management control systems (MCS), and how this balance facilitates the creation of dynamic tensions and unique organisational capabilities. By employing Simons’ (1995) levers of control framework in a case study setting, the paper investigates the challenges faced by senior managers when they use MCS simultaneously to direct and empower. The findings indicate a number of factors – internal consistency, logical progression, historical tendency, dominance, and suppression – that impact the capacity of organisations to balance different uses of MCS. The interactive lever of control also plays a significant role in achieving and sustaining a balance between controlling and enabling uses of MCS, and its impact on the other levers is seen to constitute a unique organisational capability in its own right. The findings from this study offer an elaboration of how dynamic tensions are created through managers’ attempts to balance controlling and enabling uses of MCS.     

新冠疫情对经济的影响分析及对策研究

2019年年底至2020年年初,新冠疫情在湖北省发生并向全国迅速蔓延。截至目前,在中央有力领导下疫情得到阶段性控制,但对经济增长的影响不容忽视。通过梳理疫情发生对经济产生的影响以及国内外各界解决问题的相应举措,探讨如何完善财政金融、货币政策、社会治理、公共安全治理机制等促进经济的恢复,金融如何发挥"经济助推器"和"社会稳定器"作用,并对防范相关风险提出政策建议。     

人力资源管理内部契合对组织承诺的影响机制

文章首先回顾了人力资源管理内部契合和组织承诺的研究现状,然后从结构和整体两个层面分析了人力资源内部契合对组织承诺的影响机制,并在此基础上指出了目前研究的一些困境,提出未来的研究方向。     

The stock return effect of political risk event on foreign joint ventures: evidence from the Tiananmen Square Incident

This study examines how political risk events affect the value of foreign investing firms. A unique event, the Tiananmen Square Incident, is selected to examine this issue because we believe this incident exacerbated the political risk of doing business in China. We examine the impact of the incident on the stock returns of U.S. firms with joint ventures in China. The results show that this incident indeed had a significant impact on U.S. firms with joint ventures in China, and the market had reacted to this event in an efficient manner. The results also indicate that the impact of this incident on U.S. firms was relatively small in magnitude. Further, the sharp increase of joint ventures after the incident and the significant results in high-risk group vs. the insignificant results in low-risk group provide evidence suggesting that the effect of this incident was temporary rather than long-term and regional rather than national.     

The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study

The main focus of this paper is to study empirically the impact of terrorism on the behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. We consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11-year time period and implement our analysis using different methods: an event-study approach, a non-parametric methodology, and a filtered GARCH-EVT approach. In addition, we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on financial markets with the impact of other extreme events such as financial crashes and natural catastrophes. The results of our analysis show that a non-parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the impact of terrorism on financial markets. We demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates, equity market integration, spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled. We show how the results of this approach can be used for investors’ portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.     

Corporate governance and the value of cash holdings

We investigate how corporate governance impacts firm value by comparing the value and use of cash holdings in poorly and well-governed firms. We show that governance has a substantial impact on value through its impact on cash: $1.00 of cash in a poorly governed firm is valued at only $0.42 to $0.88. Good governance approximately doubles this value. Furthermore, we show that firms with poor corporate governance dissipate cash quickly in ways that significantly reduce operating performance. This negative impact of large cash holdings on future operating performance is cancelled out if the firm is well governed.